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There’s Something Wrong With The World Today and It’s 1995
There’s Something Wrong With The World Today and It’s 1995
There weren’t any surprises in the “final” GDP update for Q1. Going back to -0.2%, the same interpretations still apply, especially and including the inventory contribution. Economists and policymakers want to talk particularly about how Q1 is prone to “residual seasonality” but that is missing the bigger part of the problem. Whether Q1 was -0.2% or +2% doesn’t really matter, as what truly makes this a dangerous economic situation is that Q1 and all the prior quarters were not a steady +4%.
To listen to economists today is to suggest that such an expectation amounts to wishful thinking, and that such “normal” growth is no longer. That sentiment may apply, but only to the narrow manner in which orthodox economics can integrate real world factors. In other words, “they” accept that there is something wrong but cannot answer the relevant and primary question as to what that might be.
This problem is obvious in every economic account, including GDP. Using year-over-year figures to harmonize among other economic systems, the lack of growth is striking post-crisis – made all the more so by the size of the huge hole left in the wake of the Great Recession itself. That means, even by this count, the opportunity cost of this non-recovery is severely understated.
I picked 1995 as a starting point for a reason, which I’ll get back to below. Suffice to say, in isolating only the growth periods of each economic cycle the current version is by comparison about half that of the late 1990’s. The middle cycle, the housing bubble age, shows what is plainly a transition from the first to the third. The primary opportunity cost is not simply the difference between them, but rather far more importantly the compounding nature of time. In other words, the longer these deficiencies drag the more costly in very real economic distortions that cannot be measured.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Forget the TPP – Wikileaks Releases Documents from the Equally Shady “Trade in Services Agreement,” or TISA
Forget the TPP – Wikileaks Releases Documents from the Equally Shady “Trade in Services Agreement,” or TISA
If it sounds complicated, it is. The important point is that this trade agreement contains a crucial discussion of governments’ abilities to meaningfully protect civil liberties. And it is not being treated as a human rights discussion. It is being framed solely as an economic issue, ignoring the implications for human rights, and it is being held in a classified document that the public is now seeing months after it was negotiated, and only because it was released through WikiLeaks.
The process is also highly secretive—in fact, trade agreement texts are classified. While the executive branch does consult with members of Congress, even congressional staffers with security clearance have until recently been prevented from seeing the texts. Furthermore, certain trade industry advisers are allowed access to U.S. negotiating objectives and negotiators that the public and public interest groups do not have.
– From the Slate article: Privacy Is Not a Barrier to Trade
If you haven’t heard about about the Trade in Services Agreement, aka TISA, don’t worry, you’re not alone. While I had heard of it before, I never read anything substantial about it until today. What sparked my reading interest on the subject were a series of very troubling articles published via several media outlets following a document dump by Wikileaks. Here’s how the whistleblower organization describes the TISA leak on it document release page:
WikiLeaks releases today 17 secret documents from the ongoing TISA (Trade In Services Agreement) negotiations which cover the United States, the European Union and 23 other countries including Turkey, Mexico, Canada, Australia, Pakistan, Taiwan & Israel — which together comprise two-thirds of global GDP.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
BREAKING BAD (DEBT) – EPISODE THREE
BREAKING BAD (DEBT) – EPISODE THREE
In Part One of this three part article I laid out the groundwork of how the Federal Reserve is responsible for the excessive level of debt in our society and how it has warped the thinking of the American people, while creating a tremendous level of mal-investment. In Part Two I focused on the Federal Reserve/Federal Government scheme to artificially boost the economy through the issuance of subprime debt to create a false auto boom. In this final episode, I’ll address the disastrous student loan debacle and the dreadful global implications of $200 trillion of debt destroying the lives of citizens around the world.
Getting a PhD in Subprime Debt
“When easy money stopped, buyers couldn’t sell. They couldn’t refinance. First sales slowed, then prices started falling and then the housing bubble burst. Housing prices crashed. We know the rest of the story. We are still mired in the consequences. Can someone please explain to me how what is happening in higher education is any different?This bubble is going to burst.” – Mark Cuban
Now we get to the subprimiest of subprime debt – student loans. Student loans are not officially classified as subprime debt, but let’s compare borrowers. A subprime borrower has a FICO score of 660 or below, has defaulted on previous obligations, and has limited ability to meet monthly living expenses. A student loan borrower doesn’t have a credit score because they have no credit, have no job with which to pay back the loan, and have no ability other than the loan proceeds to meet their monthly living expenses. And in today’s job environment, they are more likely to land a waiter job at TGI Fridays than a job in their major. These loans are nothing more than deep subprime loans made to young people who have little chance of every paying them off, with hundreds of billions in losses being borne by the ever shrinking number of working taxpaying Americans.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Oil Price Pain: Who’s Next After Emerging Markets And Fracking?
Oil Price Pain: Who’s Next After Emerging Markets And Fracking?.
The price of oil has sunk almost 50% since June with West Texas Intermediate crude slipping below $60 a barrel last week and Brent falling below the same level on Tuesday. “Yippee!” I hear you say, “cheap gas and a drop in inflation!” Well, yes in terms of a boost to consumers, and indeed a boost to global GDP, lower oil prices are a good thing and make most of us feel better off.
While I wouldn’t want to put a downer on the party, a sudden collapse in oil prices as we are seeing is not all good news. There are consequences, and the faster and further it falls, the greater those consequences could be.
Take a look at Russia: the ruble has collapsed, interest rates have foolishly been hiked from an already crucifying 10.5% to 17% this week consigning the economy to a deep recession next year and the central bank is burning through its reserves in failed attempts to support the currency and shore up the banks. Corporate Russia is deeply in debt to the outside world, mostly priced in dollars and will struggle to repay the interest on loans this coming year.
Nor is Russia alone, Venezuela is in an even worse position without Russia’s reserves, likewise Argentina, Iran and even previously booming Nigeria are now facing major problems. Turmoil in emerging markets is nothing new but has the potential to seriously upset markets at home and to destabilize banks and investors that have spent the last few years since the financial crisis chasing dwindling yields in ever more risky environments overseas.
Oil: “It’s The Economy, Stupid” | Zero Hedge
Oil: “It’s The Economy, Stupid” | Zero Hedge.
The cacophony of various talking heads proclaiming this morning that oil price weakness is not due to weak demand but to over-supply (which are obviously merely different sides to the same coin) was deafening. While he hate to steal the jam from their aggregate donuts, the following chart may just provide a hint at what is really driving oil prices… “it’s the economy, stupid!”
Correlation is not causation but.. well in this case, it is!
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But while this chart is an inconvenient truth, we are sure the meme of US growth saving the world will continue to be spewed as gospel (oh wait a minute… isn’t the entire sell-side now taking a chainsaw to their Q3/Q4 GDP growth estimates after construction spending and trade deficit data?)
Chart: Bloomberg
