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U.S. Depression? The V-Shaped Recovery Fades Away

U.S. Depression? The V-Shaped Recovery Fades Away The recent jobless claims figures show how difficult it will be for the U.S. recovery to be as quick and strong as initially expected. 7.7 million jobs were lost in Hospitality and Leisure in April, 2.5 million in Education and Health, with 2 million in Retail and another 2 million […]

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THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Nothing’s Fixed – What’s Behind the Corporate Debt Bailout

THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Nothing’s Fixed – What’s Behind the Corporate Debt Bailout Over the past two years, nobody knew what would trigger the next financial crisis, but just about everyone knew it would involve the record pile of corporate debt. And so it happened. Now the Fed fixed it…

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Investing Legend Sees A Second Great Depression For Stocks By 2023

Investing Legend Sees A Second Great Depression For Stocks By 2023 The name of Kiril Sokoloff, author of the weekly WILTW (What I Learned This Week) newsletter through his advisory firm 13D Global Strategy & Research, needs no introduction on this website for the simple reason that over the past few years we have often published […]

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A Corporate-Debt Reckoning Is Coming

A Corporate-Debt Reckoning Is Coming Corporate debt is the timebomb everyone saw ticking, but no one was able to defuse. Ratings agencies warned about it: Moody’s, S&P. Central banks and international financial institutions did too: the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank for International Settlements, the IMF. Financial luminaries expressed concern: Jamie Dimon, Seth Klarman, […]

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The Corporate Debt Bubble Is A Train Wreck In Slow Motion

The Corporate Debt Bubble Is A Train Wreck In Slow Motion There are two subjects that the mainstream media seems specifically determined to avoid discussing these days when it comes to the economy – the first is the problem of falling global demand for goods and services; they absolutely refuse to acknowledge the fact that […]

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Corporate Debt Is At Risk Of A Flash Crash

Corporate Debt Is At Risk Of A Flash Crash The world is awash in debt. While some countries are more indebted than others, very few are in good shape. The entire world is roughly 225% leveraged to its economic output. Emerging markets are a bit less and advanced economies a little more. But regardless, everyone’s “real” […]

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We Have Seen This Happen Before The Last 3 Recessions – And Now It Is The Worst It Has Ever Been

We Have Seen This Happen Before The Last 3 Recessions – And Now It Is The Worst It Has Ever Been Since the last financial crisis, we have witnessed the greatest corporate debt binge in U.S. history.  Corporate debt has more than doubled since then, and it is now sitting at a grand total of […]

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Debt Trifecta at All-Time Highs – Billionaires Panic

Debt Trifecta at All-Time Highs – Billionaires Panic The “trifecta” of national, corporate, and consumer debt has reached all-time highs, and could prove to be catastrophic if a recession hits. Let’s start by quickly bringing each part of this debt trifecta up to date as much as possible… U.S. National Debt The national debt, ever […]

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Now Even Paul Krugman Of The New York Times Is Admitting That The Next Crisis Will Likely Be Worse Than 2008

Now Even Paul Krugman Of The New York Times Is Admitting That The Next Crisis Will Likely Be Worse Than 2008 There is a growing consensus that once the next economic crash finally arrives that it will be significantly worse than what we experienced in 2008.  This is something that I have been saying for a […]

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Debt is back but this time its corporate

Debt is back but this time its corporate On Wednesday Feb 7th 2007 HSBC issued a profit warning.  It was the first in its 142 year history. The bank told its share holders it would have to take an unprecedented charge of $10.5 billion because one of its units, its sub prime lender, was in […]

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The Corporate Debt Bubble

The Corporate Debt Bubble The largest asset bubbles occur while economic growth and inflation remain positive, but subdued, for extended periods of time.  According to its dual mandate, the Federal Reserve focuses primarily on growth and price stability, and tends to ignore the creation of asset bubbles as long as economic activity is not running […]

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Looking for the Next Crisis: the Not Very Scary World of CLOs

Looking for the Next Crisis: the Not Very Scary World of CLOs We’re still in financial crisis mania, as the business press eagerly tries to tell us how little they learned from the last crisis by trying to identify the source of the next one. The NYT’s latest contribution to the effort is a piece […]

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Louis Gave On Corporate Debt And The Next Liquidity Crisis

Louis Gave On Corporate Debt And The Next Liquidity Crisis This has been a good year for the stock market so far, at least in the U.S., yet many investors are wondering when the other shoe will drop. We spoke with Louis-Vincent Gave, founding partner and CEO at Gavekal Research, about the explosion in near […]

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Weekly Commentary: Intimidate Nobody

Weekly Commentary: Intimidate Nobody Strangely perhaps, but late in the week my thoughts returned to James Carville’s 1992 comment: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the […]

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Five Pillars of Debt Default

Five Pillars of Debt Default Regular readers of Gold Goats ‘n Guns know that I’ve been handicapping a major sovereign debt default to begin here in 2018 or early 2019.  But, what do I mean by that? How does a sovereign debt default come about?  And who will default? There are a staggering number of factors […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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