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Tag Archives: italy
After Italy… Spain Risk Soars
After Italy… Spain Risk Soars Political risk in Europe was largely ignored in international markets because of the mirage of the so-called “Macron effect”. The ECB’s massive quantitative easing program and a perception that everything was different this time in Europe added to the illusion of growth and stability. However, a storm was brewing and […]
Blowing Up: The Italian Debt Crisis, the Experts That Missed it – And What’s Next
Blowing Up: The Italian Debt Crisis, the Experts That Missed it – And What’s Next With the crisis unfolding in Italy, I can’t help but remember the lessons from the underrated book – Fat Tail by Ian Bremmer. This book is an excellent read and explains how political risks can lead to severe economic and social risks. […]
Hotel Europa
Hotel Europa Theodoor Rombouts( 1597-1637) Prometheus On Friday, in This is the End of the Euro, I said: The euro has become a cage, a prison for the poorer brethren. The finance minister proposed by 5-Star/Lega and refused by Italian president Mattarella, Paolo Savona, has called the euro a German cage. There are now […]
Global Markets Descend Into Contagious Panic As Italy Implodes
Global Markets Descend Into Contagious Panic As Italy Implodes Commenting on today’s sheer market chaos as the US and UK return from holiday, Bloomberg writes that “fixed-income markets have descended into panic amid mounting concern over the risk of Italy leaving the euro or leading to its break-up” and while Italy is suffering the biggest […]
Which Banks Are Most Exposed to Italy’s Sovereign Debt? (Other than the Horribly Exposed Italian Banks)
Which Banks Are Most Exposed to Italy’s Sovereign Debt? (Other than the Horribly Exposed Italian Banks) “Doom loop” begins to exact its pound of flesh. Risk. Exposure. Contagion. These are three words we’re likely to hear more and more in relation to Europe, as the Eurozone’s debt crisis returns. On Friday, Italy’s 10-year risk premium […]
Panic, Crisis In Italy: Dealers Pull Bids As Bonds, Stocks Crash; Euro, Deutsche Bank Tumble As Contagion Spreads
Panic, Crisis In Italy: Dealers Pull Bids As Bonds, Stocks Crash; Euro, Deutsche Bank Tumble As Contagion Spreads With UK traders returning from vacation, Italy woke up to a sheer selling panic as yesterday’s “modest” selloff mutated into a full-blown liquidation avalanche, lead by a furious repricing of the BTP curve, where 2Y yields exploded […]
Italian Bonds, Stocks Crash In Furious Reversal As Political Drama Explodes
Italian Bonds, Stocks Crash In Furious Reversal As Political Drama Explodes Yesterday, in the aftermath of the latest Italian political drama, in which president Mattarella openly mocked democracy, and under pressure from Europe vetoed the choice of the euroskeptic economy minister, Paolo Savona, we warned that this outcome was even worse for markets than the […]
Italian Bonds Tumble, Triggering Goldman “Contagion” Level As Political Crisis Erupts In Spain
Italian Bonds Tumble, Triggering Goldman “Contagion” Level As Political Crisis Erupts In Spain When it comes to the latest rout in Italian bonds, which has continued this morning sending the 10Y BTP yield beyond 2.40%, a level above which Morgan Stanley had predicted fresh BTP selling would emerge as a break would leave many bondholders, […]
Germany Accuses Italy of “Debt Blackmail”: Hello EU, Time for Reform Expired
Germany Accuses Italy of “Debt Blackmail”: Hello EU, Time for Reform Expired For 10 years, the EU and EMU promised reform. None was delivered. Time is Up. Populists have taken control of Italy. Merkel’s CDU/CSU coalition is in a state of panic regarding Italy. The German parties went on the attack accusing Italy of “debt […]
Italy’s Countdown to Fiscal Crisis
Italy’s Countdown to Fiscal Crisis Italy’s current scheme of piling unfunded government spending on top of an already-huge debt is a recipe for disaster. As a general rule, we worry too much about deficits and debt. Yes, red ink matters, but we should pay more attention to variables such as the overall burden of government spending and the […]
MAY DAY
MAY DAY “Japan was the dress rehearsal; the rest of the world will be the main event.” Investor in Japanese stocks, known to this correspondent, circa 2001. “Twitter has taught me a couple of things. 1: there are some incredibly brilliant people in the world. 2: they are vastly outnumbered.” Tweet by @jrsalzman. There are […]
Debt Deflation Italian Style
Debt Deflation Italian Style New York – This week The IRA will be at the MBA Secondary Market Conference & Expo, as always held at the Marriott Marquis in Times Square. The 8th floor reception and bar is where folks generally hang out. Attendees should not miss the panel on mortgage servicing rights at 3:00 […]
Hilarity in NIRP Zone: Italian 2-Year Yield Still Near 0%, as New Government Proposes Haircut for Creditors and Alternate Currency, Markets on “Knife Edge”
Hilarity in NIRP Zone: Italian 2-Year Yield Still Near 0%, as New Government Proposes Haircut for Creditors and Alternate Currency, Markets on “Knife Edge” The ECB’s Negative Interest Rate Policy has been the funniest monetary joke ever. The distortions in the European bond markets are actually quite hilarious, when you think about them, and it’s […]
It’s Now Clear: Five Star Lega Deal is a Commitment to Leave the Eurozone
It’s Now Clear: Five Star Lega Deal is a Commitment to Leave the Eurozone There was some confusion Tuesday over the exact wording of an Italian coalition agreement. The agreement is now clear. Italy Coalition Agrees to Leave the Eurozone I typically do not agree with Eurointelligence regarding views on what “should” happen. However, I […]
