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Surviving 2020 #3: Plans A, B and C
Surviving 2020 #3: Plans A, B and C
Readers ask for specific recommendations for successfully navigating the post-credit/speculative-bubble era and I try to do so while explaining the impossibility of the task.
As the bogus prosperity economy built on exponential growth of debt implodes, we all seek ways to protect ourselves, our families and our worldly assets. There are any number of websites, subscription services and books which offer two basic “practical recommendations:”
1. Buy gold (and/or silver) and don’t worry about timing the market as everything else will become worthless.
2. Establish a heavily armed and well-supplied hideaway before everything implodes.
My problem with these suggestions is that they are predicated on a decisive “end of the world as we know it” collapse of civilization.
While I am alive to the possibility of this cataclysm, an analysis of the many feedback loops which will slow or counteract such a decisive collapse suggests other alternatives are even more likely: my term for the slow, uneven decline of the credit/speculative-bubble era is devolution.
I cover feedback loops, historical cycles and why a lengthy devolution is as least as likely a scenario as abrupt collapse in my book Survival+ (free downloadable version is linked below).
In other words, I do not see planning for eventualities as “either/or.” I look at it in terms of three levels:
1. Plan A: dealing with devolution: government services are cut back, prices for essentials rise over time, fulltime paid jobs become scarce, the State (all levels of government) becomes increasingly repressive as it pursues “theft by other means,” i.e. the stripmining of private assets to feed its own fiefdoms and Elites; most assets fall in purchasing power (value) as the system’s financial props erode.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
IMPORTANT TOM CLOUD PRECIOUS METALS UPDATE: Including Gold & Silver Eagle Best Buy Prices
IMPORTANT TOM CLOUD PRECIOUS METALS UPDATE: Including Gold & Silver Eagle Best Buy Prices
As the global contagion continues to cause a great deal of uncertainty in the markets, I thought it was a good idea for precious metals dealer Tom Cloud to provide a new update. Tom starts off the video saying that in his 44 years in the industry, he has never seen anything like the current situation in the precious metals markets.
Tom stated that one of his wealthier clients last week took money out of the banking system and purchased a large sum ($millions) of physical precious metals. Unfortunately, there still are only a fraction of financial planners that advise their clients to own a percentage of physical gold and silver in their portfolio. I believe investors should be increasing the typical 5-10% of precious metals in one’s portfolio to at least 20-25%.
Tom also went on to say that some leading financial analysts are calling for a 30% drop in U.S. GDP by Q2 2020. This is no longer a recessionary event. Rather, we are heading into a Depression, the likes we haven’t seen for nearly eight decades. Very few Americans are prepared for what’s coming.
With investment demand for physical precious metals at near-record levels, Gold and Silver Eagle premiums are some of the highest ever. It is quite amazing to see Silver Eagles buy prices more than $10 over the spot price. One large online dealer is selling its Silver Eagles for nearly $12 over spot. Thus, Silver Eagle premiums are ranging between 50-80% over spot.
I also wanted to provide an update on the Gold & Silver Eagle BEST BUY prices. I spoke to Tom yesterday for about a half-hour. He told me that Silver Eagle premiums increased again, but CLOUD HARD ASSETS still has the lowest prices versus the top leading online dealers:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Central Banks Add More Gold to Their Reserves
Central Banks Add More Gold to Their Reserves
Central banks continued their gold-buying spree in February, although the pace of gold purchases has slowed compared to last year’s near-record purchases.
On net, central banks globally added another 36 tons of gold to their reserves in February, according to the latest data released by the World Gold Council. That was about 33% higher than January’s total.
On the year, central banks have bought 64.5 tons of gold. That compares to 116 tons through the first two months of 2019.
Central bank demand came in at 650.3 tons in 2019. That was the second-highest level of annual purchases for 50 years, just slightly below the 2018 net purchases of 656.2 tons. According to the WGC, 2018 marked the highest level of annual net central bank gold purchases since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971, and the second-highest annual total on record.
The World Gold Council bases its data on information submitted to the International Monetary Fund.
Turkey continued to be the biggest gold-buyer. The Turks added another 24.8 tons to their reserves in February.
Russia further increased its stockpile of yellow metal, adding another 10.9 tons to their hoard.
Russia’s quest for gold has paid off in a big way. The Russian Central Bank’s gold reserves topped $100 billion in September 2019 thanks to continued buying and surging prices.
The Russians have been buying gold for the last several years in an effort to diversify away from the US dollar. Russian gold reserves increased 274.3 tons in 2018, marking the fourth consecutive year of plus-200 ton growth. Meanwhile, the Russians sold off nearly all of its US Treasury holdings. According to Bank of America analysts, the amount of US dollars in Russian reserves fell from 46% to 22% in 2018.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Lacalle: Is Now The Time To Buy Gold?
Lacalle: Is Now The Time To Buy Gold?
In this interview Daniel Lacalle explains why the fundamentals for gold are stronger each day, and why silver and palladium should not be ignored in the current crisis.
Central banks keep buying more gold and will need even more as massive liquidity measures drive their balance sheets higher.
Supply challenges remain with some mines being shut down and new supply coming well below demand (as evidenced by the decoupling – once again – between spot and futs)…
Massive monetary imbalances globally will drive demand from investors looking for a hedge to currency debasement (and that systemic risk is soaring, with sovereign credit markets starting to leak information)…
* * *
Finally, we give the last word to Raoul Pal and his most recent thoughts (excerpted) on “A Dollar Standard Crisis” (referring to his institutional market research at Global Macro Investor)…
….
Don’t forget – the $13tn short dollar positions (foreign dollar debt held mainly by foreign corporation and investment vehicles) is the largest position ever taken in the history of global financial markets.
It can only mean a massive, uncontrolled dollar rally.
QE will not fix this. Swap lines will not fix this. A debt jubilee would fix this or multiple trillions of dollars in write-downs and defaults.
It is the dollar strength that brings to world to its nadir (just like the 1930s). It is the dollar system that is the really big problem.
The dollar has eaten all of its competitors and now it is going to eat itself.
This eventually breaks the dollar after a super-spike as global central banks are forced to find alternatives.
Gold Gains 3% To $1,672 and Silver Surges 5% To $15.40; Goldman Warns Of $3 Trillion Explosion In U.S. Debt
Gold Gains 3% To $1,672 and Silver Surges 5% To $15.40; Goldman Warns Of $3 Trillion Explosion In U.S. Debt
◆ Gold surged 2.9% and silver by 5% yesterday, with futures leading the way higher with gold reaching it’s highest price in more than seven years
◆ Investors are diversifying into safe haven gold to hedge themselves from the coming destruction of balance sheets, trillions and trillions of fiscal and monetary stimulus and a likely economic depression
◆ JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon has blamed the pandemic on creating a “major major downturn” (see News below) and potentially an economic depression
◆Goldman Sachs have warned that the emergency “stimulus” may lead to an explosion of US national debt by about $4 trillion in just two years (see News below). This is not including the trillions in monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve to bail out Wall Street including most large financial service providers including the mortgage sector and banks
◆ The “Everything bubble” is bursting before our eyes which is evident in the stock market crashes. Property and bond market bubbles will soon burst and confidence in the dollar and other fiat currencies will soon begin to evaporate
◆ Gold’s utility as a safe haven is again being experienced by those who own it. Gold is outperforming and has delivered a 12% dollar return in 2020 year to date, exactly when they need a safe haven and a source of returns as stocks and other assets under perform. Gold has seen even greater returns in other currencies and is 15% higher in euros and 19% higher in pounds year to date.
◆ The only major asset to outperform gold year to date is the U.S. 30 year bond. This out performance is unlikely to continue as the 30 year bond cannot go much higher. We are near 0% interest rates despite the appalling fiscal, financial and economic outlook for the U.S.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
A primer for gold newbies
A primer for gold newbies
The purpose of this article is purely educational. Increasingly, the wider public is turning to gold in a spontaneous reaction to financial and economic problems that have become suddenly apparent, hastened by the spread of the coronavirus. For everyone now thinking of buying gold it is a leap into the unknown, so they should know why.
It is not just the financially inexperienced, but investment managers and financial advisors are equally unaware of what is happening to money and capital markets. We are in the early stages of a radical debasement of state-issued currencies which is on course to collapse the entire financial system.
I explain the two phases of this destruction of fiat money, the one experienced so far and the one we are about to suffer. I explain why sound money has always been physical gold and silver, returned to by the people after government and banks have collectively destroyed state-originated unsound money.
Introduction
Suddenly, there is increasing public interest in gold. The financially aware will be scratching their heads over what’s going on in financial markets in the broadest sense and might have heard some unintelligible chatter about what is going on in gold. They are asking, why does gold matter? Isn’t gold just an old-fashioned hedge against risk and the true safe haven investment today is US Treasuries? Then there’s the mass of financially unknowledgeable investors who are used to leaving investment matters to their financial advisers, and until recently have viewed the rise in the gold price as an opportunity to sell unwanted jewellery for scrap.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Gold Is Now “Unobtanium”
Gold Is Now “Unobtanium”
By now it becoming clear to many that demand for precious metals, as the world ‘turns’, is far outpacing supply as major gold suppliers and sellers exclaim “there is no gold.”
One glance at APMEX pages and two things are immediately clear:
1) There is no gold or silver….
2) And if there is, the premium for physical gold and silver over paper is massive…
Put in context, this 100% premium for silver is shocking (h/t @JanGold_)
And the mainstream media is starting to notice as DollarCollapse.com’s John Rubino points out, The Wall Street Journal just published the kind of article gold bugs dream of… Here’s an excerpt:
Coronavirus Sparks a Global Gold Rush
Epic shortage spooks doomsday preppers and bankers alike; ‘Unaffordium and unobtanium.’
It’s an honest-to-God doomsday scenario and the ultimate doomsday-prepper market is a mess.
As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, investors and bankers are encountering severe shortages of gold bars and coins. Dealers are sold out or closed for the duration. Credit Suisse Group AG, which has minted its own bars since 1856, told clients this week not to bother asking. In London, bankers are chartering private jets and trying to finagle military cargo planes to get their bullion to New York exchanges.
It’s getting so bad that Wall Street bankers are asking Canada for help. The Royal Canadian Mint has been swamped with requests to ramp up production of gold bars that could be taken down to New York.
The price of gold futures rose about 9% to roughly $1,620 a troy ounce this week and neared a seven-year high. Only on a handful of occasions since 2000 have gold prices risen more in a single week, including immediately after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“There’s No Gold” – COMEX Report Exposes Conditions Driving Physical Crunch
“There’s No Gold” – COMEX Report Exposes Conditions Driving Physical Crunch
Early this week, we were among the first to report on the “break down” in precious metals markets.
While the demand for gold has been soaring as a safe haven asset amid the multiple global crises we are currently facing, forced paper gold liquidation (as leveraged funds scramble to cover margin calls) and unprecedented logistical disruptions created a frantic hunt for actual bars of gold.
Specifically, as Bloomberg details, at the center of it all are a small band of traders who for years had cashed in on what had always been a sure-fire bet: shorting gold futures in New York against being long physical gold in London. Usually, they’d ride the trade out till the end of the contract when they’d have a couple of options to get out without marking much, if any, loss.
But the virus, and the global economic collapse that it’s sparking, have created such extreme price distortions that those easy-exit options disappeared on them. Which means that they suddenly faced the threat of having to deliver actual gold bars to the buyers of the contract upon maturity.
It’s at this point that things get really bad for the short-sellers.
To make good on maturing contracts, they’d have to move actual gold from various locations. But with the virus shutting down air travel across the globe, procuring a flight to transport the metal became nearly impossible.
If they somehow managed to get a flight, there was another major problem. Futures contracts in New York are based on 100-ounce bullion bars. The gold that’s rushed in from abroad is almost always a different size.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
US Futures Crash Limit-Down, Bonds & Bullion Bid
US Futures Crash Limit-Down, Bonds & Bullion Bid
Amid the usual last minute negotiations in Washington, spread markets suggested an ugly open for futures but FX trading in Asia was relatively subdued for once.
But, for now, no Congress agreement on stimulus means a lack of bids, so the US equity futures contract are limit-down 5%.
Dow futures opened down 950 points… limit-down…
ECB Mulls Revisiting its QE Limits
S&P Futs trade limit-down at 2,174 (when Cash opens: 7% 2128, 13% 1989.50, 20% 1828.50)…
Gold popped back above $1500…
Treasuries are bid, extending their yield collapse from Friday…
10Y Kiwi paper yields crashed after RBNZ announced an emergency QE…
WTI has plunged to a $20 handle…
All a big replay – perhaps – of the failed TARP vote from 2008…
The short gamma clearout via quad witching would help calm markets, they said.
MASSIVE SURGE IN PHYSICAL SILVER BUYING: Totally Distorted & Broken Markets
MASSIVE SURGE IN PHYSICAL SILVER BUYING: Totally Distorted & Broken Markets
The world economic and financial markets have entered into a crippling cannibalization of the system in which few are prepared. While the politicians, financial analysts, and media are providing optimistic forecasts for the future, they continue to underestimate the seriousness of the global contagion. Thus, after a week or two, these forecasts will be revised lower (once again) to reflect a more gloomy, negative and more realistic outlook.
So, in another a few weeks, the world as it pertains to this contagion will look a lot worse than it does today. I’d imagine the Dow Jones Index will likely shed another 5-8,000+ points during this period. Also, the global supply chain disruptions will kick into high gear as month-long lockdowns in various countries finally impact manufacturers and retailers across the world.
I haven’t put out too many new updates and articles over the past few weeks. Rather, I decided to take a step back to research and watch as this global contagion continued to unfold. However, I will be putting out more updates, videos, and articles over the next month as I believe most people are still unprepared for what’s coming.
Although, I have been a bit busy on Twitter recently. You can follow my TWEETS and REPLIES on Twitter here: SRSRocco Report Twitter Feed. When I posted this Tweet on March 15th, the price of oil was $31. I stated that the price would likely fall to $29 the next day… and it did. The relevant sentence in the tweet below is… WE DON’T COME BACK FROM THIS ONE.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Brace for impact
Brace for impact
What a week we just had in the precious metals market.
From a huge drop last Friday–which in the past would have presaged further declines the following week–to a significant rebound in the gold price, coupled this time with a major drop in the US dollar–which I will argue may be the signal for a switch to inflationary conditions.
First the chart
We see the nice deflationary trend of the past 18 months looks to have been decisively broken by last week’s action. Although it will be a few weeks before we can be absolutely sure, last week suggests that we are about to embark on another bout of inflation, no doubt as carefully calibrated by the Masters of the Universe as they can fill a shot-glass of whiskey from a pool of liquidity the size of a football field. Either, like a small child pouring verycarefully, they have poured only too much, or they have sloshed out enough whiskey to fill a large swimming pool, and we are about to see what happens when it all lands in a shot glass.
Now, why the need for some liquidity?
Another chart:
This graph plots the gold-copper ratio against its rate of change. I typically interpret this ratio as an indicator of the real world preference between bricks and mortar and financials. When the ratio is low, it’s a sign that people would rather make refrigerators than chase derivatives. Rate of change is the vertical axis. Near the top of the chart means that the plot is shifting towards the right at high speed. Currently, the system is moving toward the right (ratio is increasing) at the fastest rate in the last couple of years. To me, this means the real economy is degrading very quickly.
Thus the Fed may feel pressured to pump out some liquidity.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
MARKET MAYHEM: Silver Eagle Sales Surge While U.S. Shale Energy Stocks Get Crushed
MARKET MAYHEM: Silver Eagle Sales Surge While U.S. Shale Energy Stocks Get Crushed
Black Monday hit Wall Street in a BIG BLOODY WAY today. With oil being the main driver of the economy, U.S shale stocks lost nearly half of their value… IN ONE SINGLE DAY. That’s correct, the average decline from eight of the top U.S. shale companies saw their stock prices decimated by 48%. While the energy stocks lost almost 50% of their value today, the precious metals held up rather nicely.
Gold closed up about 0.4%, while silver declined 1.9%. Of course, not all precious metals investors are happy with the silver price action. I see some people complaining that silver is selling off with the markets, and it isn’t a good investment. I wouldn’t be so pessimistic on silver because it takes time for the fundamentals to kick in.
For example, the U.S. Mint sold another 670,000 Silver Eagles over the past three days since it published its last update showing 675,000 sold. So, the total as of March 9th is 1,345,000 Silver Eagles sold versus 650,000 for February:
It’s been quite a long time since the U.S. Mint sold 1.3 million Silver Eagles in the first week in a month. Thus, this provides an indicator that precious metals investors are concerned with the Global Contagion and are once again buying Silver Eagles in larger volumes. While this increased buying won’t impact the silver price currently, it shows us that investors have ramped up physical silver bullion purchases to protect wealth during a time of extreme market mayhem. And I believe, the worst is yet to come.
Shale Oil & Gas Stocks Destroyed On Bloody Monday
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
U.S. Mint Silver Eagle Sales Surge First Three Days In March Due To Global Contagion
U.S. Mint Silver Eagle Sales Surge First Three Days In March Due To Global Contagion
When investors become increasingly concerned about the financial system, they rush into physical precious metals. And, this is precisely what we see taking place at the U.S. Mint as sales of Silver Eagles surged in the first three days of March versus the entire month of February. The U.S. Mint hasn’t seen this type of buying for several years.
For the past three years, annual Silver Eagle sales fell below 20 million, reaching a low in 2019. However, that may all change this year as the global contagion spreads, motivating investors to shed paper assets and move into physical precious metals. For sure, investors should be worried when the Fed starts to do “LIQUIDITY BOMBS” via its Repo Operations as stated by Sven Heinrich, the Northman Trader:
While the Primary Dealers submitted requests for $111.478 billion this morning, the Fed accepted $100 billion. Add that to the single-day Repo of another $100 billion yesterday, which I wrote about in my article; FED REPO INJECTIONS HIT RECORD LEVEL: Global Contagion Negatively Impacting Financial Markets. The Fed Repo Operations yesterday purchased $100 billion (overnight) and a $20 billion (two-week period) for a total of $120 billion.
On top of the record Fed Repo Operations, then there was the “EMERGENCY” 50 basis point rate cut yesterday that should have pushed the markets up considerably. However, the Dow Jones Index fell nearly 800 points by the end of trading… a very bad sign indeed. While the Dow has recovered this morning, I believe this is only a temporary situation as the global contagion continues to spread negatively impacting the world’s supply chain. Let’s face it; the worst is yet to come.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
IMPORTANT: Tom Cloud Precious Metals Update
IMPORTANT: Tom Cloud Precious Metals Update
In Tom Cloud’s newest precious metals update, he discusses how the ongoing global contagion and supply chain disruptions won’t be something that will be resolved quickly. I agree. I believe this is by the far the most miss-diagnosed problem that the market, investors, and individuals fail to realize.
Once the reality of the supply chain disruptions become more in front of the public and investors face, then we are going to see huge losses in the global stock markets. Tom also states that bonds won’t be a good safe haven during this time. I would also agree with him.
I don’t believe enough people are taking this contagion seriously. If you haven’t already done so, it’s a good idea to go out and get some extra food and supplies just in case there are issues with the supply chain.
IMPORTANT NOTE: There is a reason I sponsor Tom Cloud on my site because I believe he is one of the most honest and upfront precious metals dealers in the industry. Not only does Tom offer some of the best rates to purchase gold and silver, but also whenever someone sells metals back to him, HE DOES NOT CHARGE A COMMISSION. The overwhelming majority of precious metals dealers charge a commission to buy back gold and silver.
I challenge you to check for yourself.
Also, if you need to store metal at a secure facility, Tom offers some of the lowest storage rates in the industry. TOM DOES NOT MAKE MONEY OFF HIS CLIENTS PRECIOUS METALS STORAGE. The overwhelming majority of precious metals dealers add an additional percentage to store their clients gold and silver
I challenge you to check for yourself.
Tom Cloud has been in the precious metals business for 46 years, since 1973. He has a lot of experience in the precious metals industry and understands the gold and silver market better than most dealers in the industry.
Gold Tumbles – Is The BoJ Back In The Market?
Gold Tumbles – Is The BoJ Back In The Market?
Gold prices are down around $25 this morning, despite a collapse in stocks and bond yields – and generally weak trend lower in the dollar.
The question is why? Or more appropriately, who?
We may have an answer to this outlier move. Last week we asked (rhetorically): “Are The Japanese Losing Faith? Yen Crashes Near Record Lows Against Gold?“
Noting that JPY and gold had massively decoupled, seemingly breaking out of their unofficial peg.
Perhaps this week’s crisis was enough to force the BIS or Bank of Japan back into the precious metals market to stabilize faith in fiat as the chart above shows a series of high volume dumps pressuring gold lower, and the chart below shows a huge roundtrip back into the ‘peg’ for yen against gold…
So did Kuroda and his pals step in?
“free markets” eh?
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