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The below charts were derived from the data published by a very reputable oil and gas analyst and forecaster in Texas. Because the firm charges for their data forecast I am at not at liberty to disclose their name.

All data through 2014 is the actual price and production data. Data from 2015 through 2025 is forecast data. This data came out over a month ago so some of 2015 is forecast data.

All production data is in million barrels per day and is Crude + Condensate except the World forecast which includes NGLs. Notice also that all U.S. data dates from 2008 while all other data begins with 2013.

Oil price drops only slightly next year then rises in 2017 and 2018. Then it levels out for about 5 years before rising sharply in 2024 and 2025. My guess, and it is just my guess, is that the world begins to realize that oil production will never rise again.

This firm clearly has world oil production peaking in 2015 then dropping for five years before leveling out to up slightly for three years. Then resuming its decline in 2024 and 2025.

They have the US declining only slightly in the next two years then starting a slow climb until we peak in 2021 at a point just 40,000 barrels per day above the previous 2015 peak.

They have the Gulf of Mexico peaking in 2021 at 2.13 million bpd. The Permian peaks in 2020 at 1.9 million bpd. Eagle Ford peaks in 2019 abd 2020 at 1.51 million bpd and the Bakken peaks in 2021 abd 2020 at 1.36 million bpd.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Surprising Look at Oil Consumption

November 25, 2015

A Surprising Look at Oil Consumption

The EIA publishes oil consumption numbers for all major nations. However they have data for most nations only through 2013. They do have data for some nations through 2014. Nevertheless a lot can be gleaned from just looking at those consumption numbers. If oil consumption numbers are growing year after year, then there is a good chance that nation is growing economically. But if oil consumption numbers are continually declining year after year, then it is more than a little silly to say all is well, economically, with that nation. Or that is my opinion anyway.

First, who’s oil consumption is increasing year after year, or who’s economy is booming? All charts below are consumption as total liquids in thousand barrels per day. Some charts are through 2014 while others are through 2013. Whatever the last year is on the yearly axis is the last year for that data.

Important: All charts are consumption, not production.

No doubt the Middle East is booming. The reason, most of them are oil producers and oil, for most of this chart anyway, the price of oil was increasing. They had lots of income, their consumption was increasing every year as was their economies.

Saudi Arabia, by far the Middle East’s largest consumer, has increased consumption every year since 1995.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Case For Peak Oil

November 21, 2015

The Case For Peak Oil

All charts below were created with data from JODI, the EIA and OPEC MOMR. It is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point is September 2015.

World crude oil production has taken off during the last two years due primarily to US shale oil production and higher output from OPEC. However very high oil prices has enabled many other countries to increase drilling rigs and production.

Low oil prices are having an effect on Non-OPEC oil production though not nearly as much as a lot of people thought they would, and not nearly as soon either.

Five nations, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, USA and Canada, have been responsible for way more than 100 percent of the increase in oil production in the last decade.

The world less the five nations charted above is down 5,000,000 barrels per day since 2005. This decline is despite the fact that oil prices, during much of that time, has been above $100 a barrel.

A look at the Non-OPEC segment of this group.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bakken Big Decline in September

November 14, 2015

Bakken Big Decline in September

The NDIC has published their monthly update for Bakken Oil Productin and all North Dakota Oil Production.

Bakken production was down 24,424 barrels per day while all North Dakota was down 25,378 bpd.

Here is an amplified version of the last 15 months of North Dakota production. September 2015 production is now below September 2014 production so the 12 month average has now turned negative.

Even though producing rigs in North Dakota declined in September, barrels per day per well declined also from 94 to 92. Bakken bpd per well declined from 112 to 109.

This is a long term view of Bakken and North Dakota barrels per well.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC Crude Production Down in October

November 13, 2015

OPEC Crude Production Down in October

OPEC has published their OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report with crude only production numbers for October 2015. The charts are “Crude Only” production and are in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 12 was down 256,000 bpd in October.

OPEC uses secondary sources such as Platts and other agencies to report their production numbers. I find these numbers far more useful than those reported by direct communication with the OPEC countries. Those numbers are political and usually highly inaccurate.

Algeria peaked in November 2007 – 2008 and has been in a steady decline since that point.

Angola has been holding steady since peaking in 2008 and 2010.

Ecuador appears to have peaked this year. It is likely production will be down, but only slightly, next year.

Iran appears to be poised to increase production when sanctions are lifted. But don’t expect too much very soon. After years of neglect, their infrastructure is in very bad shape.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Worldwide Rig Count Dropping Again

November 10, 2015

Worldwide Rig Count Dropping Again

Baker Hughes has published its International Rig Count with production numbers for October. This is a monthly rig count and breaks out the international rigs by oil, gas and miscellaneous. Baker Hughes does not include the Former Soviet Union countries in their count or totals. Baker Hughes also includes the US and Canada in their monthly count but they do not break US and Canada monthly totals out by oil and gas.

All rigs were down 85 rigs in October to 2,086 rigs. October 14 to October 15 total world rigs were down 1,571 rigs of 43%.

US total rigs were down 57 rigs in October to 791. October 14 to October 15 US rigs were down 1,134 rigs or 59%.

Canada was up one rig in October to 194. October 14 to October 15 Canada is down 240 rigs or 56.6%. For several years now Canadian rigs have peaked in February. This year it was different however.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Oil Production by State

October 31, 2015

US Oil Production by State

The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is just out with production numbers, through August, for each state and offshore territories. The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review is also out. This publication has US production data through September but not for individual states.

The Petroleum Supply Monthly June 15 production numbers were revised down considerably this month. And you can see they had a drop of 169,000 bpd in September. I think there will likely be an even larger drop in October. At any rate US production is finally starting to drop significantly.

The Gulf of Mexico is the one place that is bucking the trend. The GOM was up 146,000 bpd in July and up another 63,000 bpd in August for a total of 209,000 bpd for the two months.

Texas was down for the fifth straight month.

North Dakota has been moving sideways but is now below their September 2014 level.

Alaska is slightly above their August 2014 level but their average annual production will drop by between 25 and 50 thousand bpd this year.

Oklahoma has dropped 59,000 bpd since March.

New Mexico which holds part of the Permian recovered slightly in August.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Looking Back 10 Years After Peak Oil

October 27, 2015

Looking Back 10 Years After Peak Oil

All views expressed here are those of Verwimp Bruno and do not necessarily represent those of Ron Patterson.

1. INTRODUCTION

Peak Oil is the moment in time when, on a global scale, the maximum rate of oil production is reached. The moment after which oil production, by nature, must decline forever. Since Earth is a closed system, next to this production (supply) event, there must be an equal demand event: Peak Oil Consumption. Since there are no substantial above ground deposits, Peak Oil Production and Peak Oil Consumption must coincide. The world consists of a lot of different countries, some of which are already far beyond peak oil production That leads to the assumption the world as a whole reaches peak oil production. On the demand side, it is worth looking, because different countries have different economies, different degrees of development, and so on, if, while some countries still experience significant growth in oil consumption, some countries are already well beyond Peak Oil Consumption by now.

2. PRODUCTION vs CONSUMPTION

The production history of crude oil is well documented. For all relevant OPEC and NON-OPEC countries the data are gathered by Peakoilbarrel.com here, OPEC Charts, and here, Non-OPEC Charts, respectively. It is clear some countries have reached peak oil production long time ago. For readers of this blog, familiar with these data, this is no surprise. Still world oil production is growing, because some countries make up for the countries that are losing production. Many readers of Peakoilbarrel.com wonder when the exact moment will be when global oil production will have reached that ultimate peak. But how relevant is that moment? Will it bring doom, gloom, the end of motoring, plastics and tooth paste. It might be more interesting to know whether your country is before, beyond or at Peak Oil Consumption right now. And what about coal and natural gas?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Texas Oil and Gas Decline in August

October 22, 2015

Texas Oil and Gas Decline in August

The Texas RRC Oil and Gas Production Data with production data for August is out.

The RRC data is always incomplete but if this month’s incomplete data is less than last month’s incomplete data then that’s a pretty good indicator that production this month is down.

The EIA data here is only through July. They have Texas production peaking in March at 3,644,000 barrels per day and declining by 197,000 bpd to 3,447,000 bpd in July.

Dr. Dean Fantazzini has Texas peaking in March also, at a slightly lower point than the EIA but they both pretty much in agreement by July.

Texas crude only, when the final data comes in, will show the peak in March.

Dean’s algorithm still has crude only peaking in March but holding on a plateau since then.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bakken Production Down plus IEA Predictions

October 14, 2015

Bakken Production Down plus IEA Predictions

The Bakken and North Dakota production data is in.

Bakken production was down 19,502 bpd in August while all North Dakota was down 20,552 bpd.

Here is an amplified chart of Bakken and all North Dakota production.

Bakken barrels per well per day is now 112 while all North Dakota gets 94 barrels per well per day.

This chart shows the monthly change in North Dakota production. It is likely that by next month the 12 month average change in production will be negative.

Bakken wells producing increased by 69 and ND wells producing increased by 65.

From the Director’s Cut

July Permitting: 233 drilling and 0 seismic
Aug Permitting: 153 drilling and 1 seismic
Sep Permitting: 154 drilling and 1 seismic

July Sweet Crude Price1 = $39.41/barrel
Aug Sweet Crude Price = $29.52/barrel
Sep Sweet Crude Price = $31.17/barrel
Today’s Sweet Crude Price = $35.00/barrel
(low-point since Bakken play began was $22.00 in Dec 2008)
(all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)

July rig count 73
Aug rig count 74
Sep rig count 71
Today’s rig count is 67
(in November 2009 it was 63)(all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)

Comments: The drilling rig count increased 1 from July to August, decreased 3 from August to September, and dropped 4 more this month. Operators are now committed to running fewer rigs than their planned 2015 minimum as drill times and efficiencies continue to improve and oil prices continue to fall. This has resulted in a current active drilling rig count of 10 to 15 rigs below what operators indicated would be their 2015 average if oil price remained below $65/barrel. The number of well completions fell from 119(final) in July to 115(preliminary) in August. Oil price weakness now anticipated to last well into next year is the main reason for the continued slow-down. There was one significant precipitation event in the Minot area, 6 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work), and no days with temperatures below -10F.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC Crude Little Change

October 13, 2015

OPEC Crude Little Change

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is just out with the crude only production numbers for the 12 OPEC countries. The data below is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point is September 2015.

OPEC 12 crude only production was up 109,000 barrels per day in September but that was after the August production numbers were revised down by 82,000 bpd. OPEC crude only production now stands at 31,571,000 pbd. That is just 12,000 bpd above June production but still 100,000 bpd below their peak in July of 2008.

Saudi Arabia was down 48,000 bpd in September to 10,225,000 bpd. That is 174,000 bpd below their latest peak in June.

The big gainer in September was Iraq, up 80,100 bpd in September. That is still 5,000 bpd below their latest peak in July.

The UAE hit a new high in September, up 24,300 bpd in September to 2,902,000 bpd.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

October 8, 2015

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

The EIA is out with the latest Short Term Energy Outlook. All charts below are in million barrels per day. The one table is in thousand barrels per day. The projected data is through December 2016.

The EIA has Non-OPEC total liquids dropping 620,000 bpd in September, up 280,000 bpd in November but bottoming out in January, February and March, then climbing until October of 2016.

The EIA expects Non-OPEC average total liquids to increase by 140,000 bpd in 2016. The chart above shows the change they expect each country to make. Canada, by far, has the largest increase in production, up by 340,000 barrels per day. Without Canada’s input the EIA says, Non-OPEC total liquids production would be down by 200,000 bpd.

Here are the changes in Non-OPEC production the EIA expects each country to make 2015 to 2016 in thousand barrels per day. Countries not listed had zero expected change from 2015 to 2016.

The EIA says US total liquids production dropped 180,000 bpd in September.

Canada, the EIA says, was down 240,000 bpd in September and up again 270,000 bpd in October and then continue to climb at a steady pace through the end of 2016. The upward trend the EIA expects in Canadian production seems to match the same upward trend that Canada has experienced since 2011. It seems that the EIA expects the drop in the price of crude oil to have almost no effect whatsoever on Canadian total liquids production.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Open Thread: Any Energy Related Subject

September 27, 2015

Open Thread: Any Energy Related Subject

Russian production has flattened out during the last 12 months. Russia is the world’s second largest producer of crude oil, only slightly below Saudi Arabia.

Iran unveils a three stage plan to get its Persian Gulf oil back to pre sanction levels… in five years.

3-stage plan to raise oil production unveiled

Managing director of the Iranian Offshore Oil Company has explained details of Iran’s three-stage plan to increase oil production during the post-sanction era.

Explaining the detail of Iran’s three-stage plan to increase crude oil production in Persian Gulf, Saeed Hafezi said that, “currently, the natural decline in Iran’s oil production in offshore fields exceeds the decline in onshore fields.”

Pointing to the 10-12 percent drop in oil production at Persian Gulf fields, Hafezi asserted that, “accordingly, implementing plans to increase oil production in these areas will be time consuming and only after compensating for the natural decrease we can begin to increase our production capacity.”

This official reiterated that by the removal of sanctions, Iran will undertake a three-stage plan to increase oil production adding that, “based on this plan, during the first stage we will implement emergency techniques to increase daily production of crude oil in Persian Gulf by 32 thousand barrels.”

Announcing a medium-term program to increase daily production in Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz by 130 thousand barrels, Hafezi added that, “by undertaking a four to five-year plan, the natural drop in annual production capacity will be compensated in order to reach the quota of 800 thousand barrels per day.”

I found the above article extremely revealing. First, much of Iran’s decline during sanctions has been due to “natural decline”. Of course we knew that but I had no idea it was as high as 10 to 12 percent. That was just their Persian Gulf fields, but their inland fields have been declining also. It will be interesting to see how long it takes them to get those fields up to their previous levels.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Special Thread: The Camp of the Saints

September 26, 2015

Special Thread: The Camp of the Saints

Wiki’s take on Jean Raspail’s prophetic novel, The Camp of the Saints:

The Camp of the Saints is a novel about population migration and its consequences. In Calcutta India, the Belgian government announces a policy in which Indian babies will be adopted and raised in Belgium. The policy is reversed after the Belgian consulate is inundated with poverty-stricken parents eager to give up their infant children.

An Indian “wise man” then rallies the masses to make a mass exodus to live in Europe. Most of the story centers on the French Riviera, where almost no one remains except for the military and a few civilians, including a retired professor who has been watching the huge fleet of run-down freighters approaching the French coast.

The story alternates between the French reaction to the mass immigration and the attitude of the immigrants. They have no desire to assimilate into French culture but want the goods that are in short supply in their native India. Although the novel focuses on France, the rest of the West shares its fate.

Near the end of the story the mayor of New York City is made to share Gracie Mansion with three families from Harlem, the Queen of the United Kingdom must agree to have her son marry a Pakistani woman, and only one drunken Soviet soldier stands in the way of thousands of Chinese people as they swarm into Siberia. The one holdout until the end of the novel is Switzerland, but by then international pressure isolating it as a rogue state for not opening its borders forces it to capitulate.

The novel was published 42 years ago but it is suddenly back in the news again, ‘Camp of The Saints’ Seen Mirrored In Pope’s Message.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

September 24, 2015

JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

I am starting this post off with a news article because it explains why JODI has U.S. production numbers wrong for July.

No, U.S. Oil Production Probably Didn’t Rise in July

The Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) releases monthly oil supply-and-demand data for about 80 countries, which it gathers by directly surveying the countries. It is widely cited by analysts, especially for its figures on demand, imports and exports.

The latest JODI data released Sunday showed that U.S. crude-oil production rose from 9.3 million barrels a day in June to 9.5 million barrels in July.

But the EIA’s latest forecast called for July production to fall to 9.2 million barrels a day in July, continuing the trend of declining U.S. production as companies cut spending in the face of low prices.

For the charts below I have used JODI data for all Non-OPEC nations except those that do not report to JODI. For them I use the EIA data and carry forward the same data that the EIA reported, (April). For the USA, since the JODI data is obviously wrong for July, I simply carried forward the June data which also came directly from the EIA. And for OPEC I use the OPEC MOMR’s “secondary sources”. JODI also uses the MOMR for their data but uses the “direct communication” data instead of the secondary sources data.

The data below is through July 2015 and is in thousand barrels per day.

In July we remained at or near the world’s all time peak at 75,631,000 barrels per day, down just 15,000 bpd from June.

JODI Non-OPEC stood at 44,100,000 bpd in July, down 567,000 bpd from the peak in December.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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