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EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook and the Seneca Cliff
EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook and the Seneca Cliff The scenario above shows an Oil Shock Model with a URR of 3600 Gb and EIA data from 1970 to 2015 and the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2016 early release reference projection from 2016 to 2040. The oil shock model was originally developed by Webhubbletelescope and presented […]
Australian Public Broadcaster ABC unable to look at oil statistics
Australian Public Broadcaster ABC unable to look at oil statistics Four times in as many months did ABC publish inaccurate statements about US shale oil. A glut of mis-information. This is unacceptable because it leads to wrong policy decisions and has ultimately damaging economic and financial consequences. (1) “US shale producers pump like never before” Just in […]
Oil Production Vital Statistics March 2016
Oil Production Vital Statistics March 2016 Since the possible double bottom at $26 formed on February 11th the oil price has staged a rally to $40 (WTI). Traders lucky enough to buy at $26 and sell at $40 have pocketed a tidy 54% profit. Very few will have been this lucky. The trade was stimulated […]
Advantage U.S. In The Global Petroleum Showdown?
Advantage U.S. In The Global Petroleum Showdown? Is the crude stock data in the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (Table 1 in the report) a useful tool for judging the prospects for the U.S. petroleum industry— and therefore for the global petroleum industry—or is it misleading? With few interruptions, U.S. crude stocks increased steadily during 2015 and […]
Energy Wars of Attrition: The Irony of Oil Abundance
Energy Wars of Attrition: The Irony of Oil Abundance Three and a half years ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) triggered headlines around the world by predicting that the United States would overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world’s leading oil producer by 2020 and, together with Canada, would become a net exporter of oil around 2030. Overnight, […]
U.S. Has Too Much Oil. So Why Are Imports Rising?
U.S. Has Too Much Oil. So Why Are Imports Rising? Despite domestic production declining and demand surging, the EIA reported oil inventories surge by more than 10 million barrels, or more than three times what was expected. The 10.4 million barrel increase was mostly due to a near record increase in imports of 490,000 b/d […]
World outside US and Canada doesn’t produce more crude oil than in 2005
World outside US and Canada doesn’t produce more crude oil than in 2005 After a delay of several months the US Energy Information Administration has published the latest international energy statistics for October 2015 This is an opportunity to update crude oil graphs http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs Fig 1: World’s incremental crude oil production How Fig 1 is created: for […]
OPEC Will Not Blink First
OPEC Will Not Blink First An OPEC production cut is unlikely until U.S. production declines by about another million barrels per day (mmbpd). OPEC won’t cut because it would accomplish nothing beyond a short-term increase in price. Carefully placed comments by OPEC and Russian oil ministers about the possibility of production cuts achieve almost the […]
Is The EIA Too Optimistic On U.S. Oil Output?
Is The EIA Too Optimistic On U.S. Oil Output? After following the weekly production statistics avidly for some months and initially being smugly pleased by the data saying exactly what I wanted to hear, I then became completely befuddled by the data saying the opposite. I had almost reached the conclusion that the weekly production […]
Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating Economy
Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating Economy Fed officials and financial news reporters are collectively wondering why the economy seems to be slowing down, even though lower oil and gasoline prices ought to be a stimulative factor. If consumers are spending less of their money on gasoline, then they ought to have more to […]
Oil Markets Are Balancing Faster Than IEA Would Have Us Believe
Oil Markets Are Balancing Faster Than IEA Would Have Us Believe Fundamentals point toward market balance but pessimism is dragging oil prices down. IEA has apparently succumbed to this negativity but their data suggests that things are getting better, not worse. In a business-as-usual world in which nothing unusual happens, the world will be close […]
The great condensate con: Is the oil glut just about oil?
The great condensate con: Is the oil glut just about oil? My favorite Texas oilman Jeffrey Brown is at it again. In a recent email he’s pointing out to everyone who will listen that the supposed oversupply of crude oil isn’t quite what it seems. Yes, there is a large overhang of excess oil in […]
