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The best is yet to come for US oil production—but it will be a short-lived hurrah, according to Ian Taylor, head of oil trading giant Vitol.

US oil production has steadily increased throughout 2017 as US drillers regained their footing after the oil price crash. What started out at 8.946 million bpd of crude oil production in the first week of January has now reached an average of 9.561 million bpd as of September 29, according to the EIA.

The EIA is expecting US oil production to reach 9.8 million bpd in 2018, according to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook.

US crude oil exports, too, have taken the world by storm, particularly over the last couple of weeks, as traders seize an opportunity created by the extra wide spread between WTI and Brent, which as of the latter part of September, reached $7 per barrel, according to data provided by S&P Global Platts.

These US exports are now flooding the global market—a global market that is still oil-heavy as OPEC members—well, most OPEC members—continue to dutifully curb oil production to alleviate the overhang. That overhang is smaller today than it was in December 2016—in fact, 130 million barrels smaller, according to OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo, but is still 171 million barrels too heavy as of August.

Still, Vitol feels that the current U.S. crude oil production growth is unsustainable beyond 2018.

Vitol is anticipating an increase in US crude production of 0.5 to 0.6 million bpd in 2018, at which point the increase in production would cause cost inflation, rendering at least some of today’s current production projects unprofitable. And according to Vitol, some are barely profitable as it is.

“If you look at the economics on most of the big Permian players, not many of them make a lot of money,” Taylor said, speaking to Reuters.

For now, Vitol is expecting “boringly rangebound” prices, but eventually, the expected slowdown in production, along with “robust” demand growth, will inevitably push up prices past that stubborn $50-$60 level.

Energy and Authoritarianism

September 26, 2017

Energy and Authoritarianism

Could declining world energy result in a turn toward authoritarianism by governments around the world? As we will see, there is no simple answer that applies to all countries. However, pursuing the question leads us on an illuminating journey through the labyrinth of relations between energy, economics, and politics.

The International Energy Agency and the Energy Information Administration (part of the U.S. Department of Energy) anticipate an increase in world energy supplies lasting at least until the end of this century. However, these agencies essentially just match supply forecasts to anticipated demand, which they extrapolate from past economic growth and energy usage trends. Independent analysts have been questioning this approach for years, and warn that a decline in world energy supplies—mostly resulting from depletion of fossil fuels—may be fairly imminent, possibly set to commence within the next decade.

Even before the onset of decline in gross world energy production we are probably already beginning to see a fall in per capita energy, and also net energy—energy that is actually useful to society, after subtracting the energy that is used in energy-producing activities (the building of solar panels, the drilling of oil wells, and so on). The ratio of energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) for fossil energy production has tended to fall as high-quality deposits of oil, coal, and natural gas are depleted, and as society relies more on unconventional oil and gas that require more energy for extraction, and on coal that is more deeply buried or that is of lower energy content. Further, renewable energy sources, especially if paired with needed energy storage technologies, tend to have a lower (some say much lower) EROEI than fossil fuels offered during the glory days of world economic growth after World War II. And renewables require energy up front for their manufacture, producing a net energy benefit only later on.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Shale’s Most Productive Play May Peak By 2021

September 25, 2017

U.S. Shale’s Most Productive Play May Peak By 2021

The world’s top shale play, the Permian, has shown remarkable resilience amid the lower-for-longer oil prices. Permian production has grown and should continue its rise into the foreseeable future.

Technological advances spurred the rapid rise of the Permian, but as drillers are set to continuously develop the hottest U.S. shale play, they may soon start to test the region’s geological limits.

If E&P companies can’t overcome the geological constraints with tech breakthroughs, Permian production could peak in 2021, putting more than 1.5 million bpd of future production in question, and potentially significantly influencing oil prices, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in an analysis this week.

According to EIA’s September Drilling Productivity Report, the Permian will pump 2.580 million bpd of oil this month. Crude oil output is set to rise by another 55,000-bpd next month, to 2.635 million bpd. The Permian, as usual, contributes the most to the expected production growth out of the top U.S. shale plays.

Wood Mackenzie’s report, “Geology vs. technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?”, modeled three scenarios for the Permian’s production. Under the reference-case scenario, Permian production is set to rise to more than 5 million bpd in 2025. Peak production could increase by 500,000 bpd over WoodMac’s base case in a modeling scenario where new technology adoption accelerates more aggressively, the consultancy said. However, “downside risks related to tighter well spacing and well-on-well interference could bring peak Permian production forward by 4 years compared to the upside case—putting more than 1.5 million b/d of future production in question,” Wood Mackenzie reports.

The analysis points out that many other shale plays prove that the initial years of development are typically the easiest. In order to keep well performance on par with the initial flows, drillers need more tech breakthroughs “to keep their barrels at the bottom of the cost curve.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China To Dictate Energy Growth In Coming Years

September 17, 2017

China To Dictate Energy Growth In Coming Years

Natural gas, renewables expected to grow significantly

The EIA released this year’s International Energy Outlook today, outlining expected trends in energy through 2040.

The International Energy Outlook predicts that total world energy consumption will grow by 28 percent between 2015 and 2040, primarily driven by non-OECD countries. Non-OECD Asia will account for 60 percent of all energy consumption growth in the period. Significant growth is expected in natural gas and renewables consumption, with increases also seen in oil and nuclear power.

(Click to enlarge)

Source: EIA

OPEC will continue to fuel most demand growth

The IEO projects that oil and other liquids will remain the primary world energy source, with consumption growing by 18 percent in upcoming years. Like most other sectors, the growth in oil consumption will be driven by non-OECD countries, as OECD demand is projected to be roughly constant in upcoming years. The EIA expects OPEC to provide most of the increase in oil supply, with only small increases coming from non-OPEC nations.

(Click to enlarge)

Source: EIA

(Click to enlarge)

Source: EIA

Natural gas consumption will increase 43 percent thanks to China

Natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 43 percent through 2040, driven by increases in China. Increasing demand for low carbon intensity, reliable power will drive significant expansion natural gas in electricity generation.

(Click to enlarge)

Source: EIA

Near the end of the projection, natural gas is also expected to see significant growth as a transportation fuel. According to the EIA, new rules on marine fuels and the growing spread between oil and natural gas prices are projected to lead to a greater use of LNG as a maritime fuel towards the end of the projection.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

WTI/RBOB Sink After Big Crude Build, Production Jump Offsets Greatest Gasoline Inventory Draw In History

September 13, 2017

WTI/RBOB Sink After Big Crude Build, Production Jump Offsets Greatest Gasoline Inventory Draw In History

WTI and RBOB prices are higher this morning following API’s reported the biggest gasoline draw in history (compared to EIA data). Of course, disruptions (Florida demand and Texas supply) remain dominant but DOE reports a massive 8.4mm draw in Gasoline inventories – the biggest draw ever. The reaction in prices is anti-climactic as production rebounded and crude built dramatically to offset the exuberance.

Bloomberg’s Javier Blas reminds readers that the report covers the period from 7:01 am on Friday, Sept. 1 to 7:00 am on Friday, Sept. 8. So a lot of disruption from Harvey (particularly from Sept. 1, 2, and 3) will still impact everything from refining intake to crude production and U.S. imports and exports.

API

Crude +6.181mm (+4.82mm exp)
Cushing +1.32mm (+1.6mm exp)
Gasoline -7.896mm (-1.5mm exp) – biggest draw ever
Distillates-1.805mm

DOE

Crude +5.888mm (+4.82mm exp) – biggest build in 6 mos
Cushing +1.023mm (+1.6mm exp- biggest build in 6 mos
Gasoline -8.428mm (-1.5mm exp) – biggest draw ever
Distillates -3.215mm – biggest draw in 6 mos

Bloomberg Intelligence energy analyst Vince Piazza notes that the impact from hurricane season will keep crude demand subdued, with roughly two million barrels of daily refining capacity off-line. Depressed gasoline consumption should persist temporarily on lower transportation use and suppressed refining utilization.

Gasoline inventories confirmed API’s data and saw the biggest draw in history as Crude and Cushing saw major builds…

The bearish data point is that total U.S. petroleum inventories (that’s crude, refined products, propane and the volatile “other oils” category) have built for the second consecutive week.

Total stocks up 1.7 million barrels, driven by big builds in crude, propane and other oils.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How EIA Guestimates Keep Oil Prices Subdued

September 4, 2017

How EIA Guestimates Keep Oil Prices Subdued

The EIA has once again undercut its previous estimates for U.S. oil production, offering further evidence that the U.S. shale industry is not producing as much as everyone thinks.

The monthly EIA oil production figures tend to be more accurate than the weekly estimates, although they are published on several months after the fact. The EIA just released the latest monthly oil production figures for June, for example. Meanwhile, the agency releases production figures on a weekly basis that are only a week old – the latest figures run up right through August.

The weekly figures are more like guestimates though, less solid, but the best we can do in nearly real-time. It is not surprising that they are subsequently revised as time passes and the agency gets more accurate data.

But the problem is that for several months now, the monthly and the weekly data have diverged by non-trivial amounts. The weekly figures have been much higher than what the monthly data reveal only later. And remember, it is the monthly data that tends to be more accurate.

Let’s take a look. A month ago, I wrote about how the EIA’s monthly data for May put U.S. oil production at 9.169 million barrels per day (mb/d). But back in May, the EIA’s weekly figures told a different story. The agency thought at the time that the U.S. was producing nearly 200,000 bpd more than turned out to be the case. Here were the weekly estimates at the time:

• May 5: 9.314 mb/d

• May 12: 9.305 mb/d

• May 19: 9.320 mb/d

• May 26: 9.342 mb/d

But two months later, the EIA published its final estimate for May, and put the figure at 9.169 mb/d. So, as it turns out, the U.S. was producing much less in May than we thought at the time.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”

August 27, 2017

klublu/Shutterstock

Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”

Dispelling the magical thinking behind the hype

Energy is everything.

This is an amazingly important concept. Yet it’s almost universally overlooked.

Sometimes it’s hard to appreciate the magical role energy plays in our daily lives because most of what we experience is a derivative of it. The connection is hidden from direct view. Because of this, most people utterly fail to detect or appreciate the priceless and irreplaceable role of high net-energy fuel sources (such as oil and gas) to our modern lifestyle.

With high net-energy, society enjoys increasing complexity and technological advances. It’s what enables us to pursue massive goals like desalinating billions of gallons of seawater, or going to Mars. But without high net-energy fuel sources, our capabilities quickly regress to those of decades — or even centuries — past.

Which is why understanding where we truly are in the ‘net-energy story’ is so incredibly important. Is the US on the cusp of being “energy independent” from here on out? Is the “shale miracle” ushering in a glorious new ‘boom’ era that will vault America to unprecedented prosperity?

No. The central point of this report is that the US is deluding itself when it comes to energy abundance (generally) and oil (specifically).

Yet that’s not what we hear from the cheerleaders in the industry or in our media. From them, we hear a silver-tongued narrative of coming riches — a narrative that contains some truth, some myth, and a lot of fantasy.

It’s those last two parts — the myths and fantasies — that are going to seriously hurt many investors, as well cause a lot of extremely poor policy and investment decisions.

The bottom line is this: The US shale industry resembles a fraudulent Ponzi scheme much more so than it does any kind of “miracle”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Future of US Light Tight Oil (LTO)

March 5, 2017

The Future of US Light Tight Oil (LTO)

The future output from the light tight oil (LTO) sector of the US oil industry is the subject of much speculation. Above I present some possible future output scenarios based on a simple model of US LTO, the scenarios are compared with the EIA’s 2017 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) reference scenario with cumulative output of 82 Gb from 2001 to 2050. The cumulative output of the model scenarios is for the same period (2001-2050).

The models all use the same well profiles from 2006 to 2016 and are based on data gathered from Enno Peters excellent blog, shaleprofile.com. A preliminary hyperbolic profile was fit to the average LTO well data and then the parameters were fit using least squares and solver in Excel so that the model matched the data for output and number of wells added each month over the period from 2011 to 2015. The data for 2016 is incomplete and this leads to an under report of wells added for most of 2016 (from March through October). For this period the wells added were adjusted so that the model matched the output data from the EIA (which is more complete than the data reported at shaleprofile.com.)

The well profiles used are shown below, two were used, a lower profile for the early period and a higher well profile for the later period. The vertical axis is output in barrels per month and the horizontal axis is months from first output.

chart/

The well profile in red (219 kb) is the basis for all the scenarios. In every case it is assumed that the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) or total output from the well over its life starts to decrease in Feb 2017, but the rate of decrease varies from model to model, based on underlying assumptions and the number of new wells added each month.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Biggest Gasoline Glut In 27 Years Could Crash Oil Markets

February 21, 2017

Biggest Gasoline Glut In 27 Years Could Crash Oil Markets

Oil prices are stuck in a holding pattern, waiting for more definitive data on what comes next. OPEC compliance is helping keep prices afloat, but rising U.S. oil production is acting as a counterweight.

A new problem that has suddenly emerged is the record levels of gasoline sitting in storage. The market has already had to digest the fact that U.S. crude oil stocks were rising, and investors have done their best to explain away the trend. But now gasoline inventories are climbing to unexpected heights.

It would be one thing if crude stocks were rising, perhaps because refiners were going offline for maintenance. But if that were the case, then gasoline stocks would draw down on lower refining runs. But if both crude and refined product inventories are going up at the same time, then there should be some reasons for worry.

In fact, the glut of gasoline is now the worst in 27 years. At 259 million barrels, U.S. gasoline storage levels are now at their highest level since the EIA began tracking the data back in 1990.

(Click to enlarge)

Part of the reason for the glut, of course, are high levels of production. Although gasoline production ebbs and flows seasonally, U.S. production has been on an upward trend in recent years. Instead of bouncing around in a range of 8.5 to 9.5 million barrels per day before 2014, U.S. production since the collapse of oil prices has steadily climbed to a range of 9 to 10 mb/d.

(Click to enlarge)

But that increase came in order to satisfy rising demand (which, of course, was stoked by lower prices). More demand should have soaked up that excess supply. However, that is where the problem gets worse. Lately, U.S. demand has faltered.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Risk, double-edged swords and imagining the worst

February 11, 2017

Risk, double-edged swords and imagining the worst

A friend of mine recently said that intellectual honesty often requires imagining the worst. Of course, in the study of climate change and natural resources one needs only to read the analyses of scientists to imagine the worst.

Imagining the worst in not necessarily the same as believing the worst is inevitable or even likely. It can be merely a standard part of both scenario and emergency planning. Of course, imagining the worst can also be a double-edged sword with a sinister edge, sometimes eliciting Richard Hofstadter’s paranoid style of politics.

When we imagine the worst concerning our political opponents or our enemies (sadly often placed into the same category), this is merely a reflex designed to justify our own hatreds and also a tool for broadly smearing those with whom we disagree. Clearly, this is not the same as seeking out solid evidence and using logic to construct a worst-case scenario.

In scenario planning the whole point is to consider seriously a range of possible outcomes and formulate plans for dealing with those outcomes. For example, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reference case for world oil production (defined as crude oil and lease condensate) shows it rising from about 76 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2012 to 99.5 mbpd in 2040. The low production case is 92 mbpd and the high production case is almost 103 mbpd.

You may feel that this range doesn’t reflect more extreme scenarios, but at least the agency offers a range. Some forecasters pretend to know to the second decimal point the future of oil production and reserves decades hence. It’s hard to put this down to anything but hubris.

Compare these forecasts to a forecast based on much sounder data, this one made by an EIA researcher in 2009 about how much oil we would have to find and deliver to meet rather extravagant future demand expectations:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Production Vital Statistics December 2016

January 12, 2017

Oil Production Vital Statistics December 2016

Global total liquids production hit yet another record high of 98.24 Mbpd in November led by OPEC and Russia! Libya’s drive to restore production is a significant factor with production up 280,000 bpd from recent lows. The US oil rig count has risen for 32 consecutive weeks and US oil production has stopped falling. Production from the North Sea and Asia are in decline as the past low price and drive to restore profitability works through the system.

The oil price has significantly broken above the $51 / bbl resistance and Brent is currently at $57. With OPEC + Russia due to decrease production from January first and to maintain lower plateau levels, combined with the relentless rise in demand, the oil price should rally from here, but not by much. The ceiling is set by the cost of new supply that currently resides with the N American LTO frackers. US production has halted its decline which is perhaps a sign of what is coming.

The following totals compare November 2016 with November 2015:

World Total Liquids +780,000 bpd
OPEC +950,000
Russia + FSU +440,000
Europe -170,000 bpd
Asia -640,000
North America -640,000

The net figures from the above are +1.39 Mbpd and -1.45 Mbpd leaving a net -0.06 Mbpd increase compared with the + 0.78 Mbpd global total liquids figure.

Year on Year, OPEC and Russia are the big winners. North America, Asia and Europe the big losers. And on the drilling front:

US total rig count up 261 to 665 from the low of 27 May
International rigs up 15 in November

This article first appeared on Energy Matters.

EIA oil price and Baker Hughes rig count charts are updated to the end of October 2016, the remaining oil production charts are updated to September 2016 using the IEA OMRdata.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Huge Decline In U.S. Proved Oil And Gas Reserves

December 19, 2016

Huge Decline In U.S. Proved Oil And Gas Reserves

Proved oil and gas reserves down 11.8 percent and 16.6 percent, respectively, from year-end 2014

EIA has downgraded its estimates of proved oil and gas reserves in the U.S., according to its Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-end 2015 report, released today.

Proved reserves of crude oil in the U.S. declined by 4.7 billion barrels or 11.8 percent from their year-end 2014 level to 35.2 BBbls at year-end 2015. Natural gas proved reserves decreased 64.5 Tcf to 324.3 Tcf, a 16.6 percent decline.

Average oil and gas prices in 2015 dropped 47 percent and 42 percent, respectively, from 2014, resulting in more challenging economic and operating conditions. This caused operators to postpone or cancel development plans and revise their proved reserves downward.

Discoveries and revisions

Proved reserves are volumes of oil and natural gas that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.

The charts below break down the different additions and revisions contributed to the changes.

(Click to enlarge)

Total discoveries of crude oil kept pace with reserve decreases from production, with 150 million more barrels of crude and lease condensate produced than were found.

Discoveries are defined as new fields or reservoirs in previously discovered fields. Extensions are additions to reserves that resulted from additional drilling and exploration in previously discovered reservoirs. In a given year, extensions are typically the largest percentage of total additions while discoveries are usually a small percentage of annual reserve additions.

Revisions primarily occur when operators change their estimates of what they will be able to produce from the properties they operate in response to changing prices or improvements in technology.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bakken July Production Data

September 17, 2016

Bakken July Production Data

North Dakota has just come out with their oil production numbers for July 2016. Bakken production was up by 3,046 barrels per day while all North Dakota production was up 2,376 barrels per day.

bakken-bpd

The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report missed it for July. They will make the correction next month.

bakken-bpd-per-well

Barrels per day per well held steady in July, 91 for the Bakken and 79 for all North Dakota.

bakken-monthly-change

The trend is down in spite of the slight increase in July.

From the Director’s Cut

Oil Production

June 30,813,924 barrels = 1,027,131 barrels/day
July 31,914,711 barrels = 1,029,507 barrels/day (preliminary)(all time high was Dec 2014 at 1,227,483 barrels/day)
977,342 barrels per day or 95% from Bakken and Three Forks
52,165 barrels per day or 5% from legacy conventional pools

Producing Wells

June 13,248
July 13,255 (preliminary)(all time high) 11,168 wells or 84% are now unconventional Bakken Three forks wells 2,087 wells or 16% produce from legacy conventional pools

Permitting

June 65 drilling and 0 seismic
July 86 drilling and 0 seismic
August 99 drilling and 1 seismic (all time high was 370 in 10/2012)

ND Sweet Crude Price

June $38.75/barrel
July $35.57/barrel
August $33.73/barrel
Today $32.00/barrel (all time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)

Rig Count

June 28
July 31
August 32
Today’s rig count is 33 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)

Comments:

The drilling rig count increased three from June to July, then increased one from July to August, and increased one more from August to today. Operators remain committed to running the minimum number of rigs while oil prices remain below $60/barrel WTI. The number of well completions dropped from 45(final) in June to 41(preliminary) in July. Oil price weakness is the primary reason for the slow down and is now anticipated to last into at least the fourth quarter of this year and perhaps into the second quarter of 2017. There was one significant precipitation event, 12 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work), and no days with temperatures below 10F.

Over 98% of drilling now targets the Bakken and Three Forks formations.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World Energy 2016-2050: Annual Report

June 23, 2016

World Energy 2016-2050: Annual Report

The purpose of this annual report is to provide an analytical framework evaluating the development of world energy supply and its impact on the global economy. The report projects the world supply of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and other energies from 2016 to 2050. It also projects the overall world energy consumption, gross world economic product, and energy efficiency from 2016 to 2050 as well as carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning from 2016 to 2100.

The basic analytical tool is Hubbert Linearization, first proposed by American geologist M. King Hubbert (Hubbert 1982). Despite its limitations, Hubbert Linearization provides a useful tool helping to indicate the likely level of ultimately recoverable resources under the existing trends of technology, economics, and geopolitics. Other statistical methods and some official projections will also be used where they are relevant.

Past experience with Hubbert Linearization suggests that Hubbert Linearization exercise tends to underestimate the ultimately recoverable oil and natural gas resources. To mitigate this “pessimistic” bias, I use the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s official projection to project US oil and natural gas production from 2016 to 2040, which may prove to be too optimistic.

About two years ago, I posted “World Energy 2014-2050” at Peak Oil Barrel (Political Economist 2014). The posts can be found here:

World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 1)

World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 2)

World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 3)

The 2014 report drew the following conclusion:

It finds that world production of oil, natural gas, and coal may peak between 2016 and 2031. As the supply of fossil fuels declines and the renewable energies do not grow sufficiently rapidly, the world energy consumption is projected to peak in 2035 and the world economy is projected to enter into a prolonged depression after 2040. World carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning are projected to peak in 2027.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA World Crude Oil Production

June 4, 2016

EIA World Crude Oil Production

The EIA has apparently stopped publishing its International Energy Statistics. Instead they are now publishing an abbreviated version on their Total Energy web page titled: Tabel 11.1b World Crude Oil Production. Here they publish crude + condensate production numbers for Persian Gulf Nations, Selected Non-OPEC Countries, Total Non-OPEC and World. The “Selected Non-OPEC Producers are Canada, China, Egypt, Mexico, Norway, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States. They have just released their latest data through February 2016.

All the data below is in thousand barrels per day and through February 2016 unless otherwise noted.

World C+C

They have world C+C peaking, so far, in November 2015 at 80,630,000 bpd. February production was 79,653,000 bpd, or 977,000 bpd below the peak. World C+C production, they say, averaged 80,035,000 in 2015. Average for the first two months of 2016 was 79,933.000 or 102,000 bpd below the average for 2015.

So with world production continuing to decline, there is little doubt that 2016 production will be well below 2015 production.

Non-OPEC

They have Non-OPEC peaking in March 2015 at 46,504,000 bpd and down by 925,000 bpd in February to 45,579,000 bpd.

OPEC C+C

They also publish OPEC members data, Table 11.1a. OPEC C+C failed to breach its 2012 peak but did reach 34,562,000 bpd in July 2015 but by February 2016 it was down 488,000 bpd to 34,074,000 bpd.

Canada

This is the EIA’s version of Canadian production. It looks exactly like Canada’s National Energy Board data except the EIA’s data is about 150,000 bpd less than Canada’s NEB shows. Obviously Canada is counting something that the EIA is not. Look for Canada’s production to decline substantially in 2016. And those May wildfires will not help at all.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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