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Fed Cut Back on Helicopter Money for Wall Street & the Wealthy
Fed Cut Back on Helicopter Money for Wall Street & the Wealthy
Tapered QE-4 Further, Still Hasn’t Bought Junk Bonds or ETFs, Was Just Jawboning.
Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet rose by $205 billion during the week ending April 22, to $6.57 trillion. Since the week ending March 11, when the bailout of the Everything Bubble and its holders began, the Fed has printed $2.26 trillion.
But the $205 billion increase was the smallest increase since the mega-bailout began with its Sunday March 15 announcement. The Fed is tapering its purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Repurchase agreements (repos) are falling into disuse. Lending to Special Purposes Vehicles (SPVs) has leveled off. And foreign central bank liquidity swaps, after having spiked initially, only ticked up by a small-ish amount.
The sharply reduced increases confirm that the Fed is following its various announcements over the past two years that during the next crisis – namely now – it would front-load the bailout QE and after the initial blast would then taper it out of existence, rather than let it drag out for years.
This concept was further confirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on April 10 when he said that the Fed would pack away its emergency tools when “private markets and institutions are once again able to perform their vital functions of channeling credit and supporting economic growth.”
Overall, the Fed has cut the big QE purchases by 65% since the peak week (week ending April 1, $586 billion), to $205 billion:
Purchases of Treasury securities get slashed.
The Fed added $120 billion of Treasury securities to its balance sheet, the smallest amount since this began, down 67% from the $362 billion it had added during the peak week:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Credit Markets – The Waiting Game
Credit Markets – The Waiting Game
Everything and the Kitchen Sink
After the first inter-meeting rate cut in early March, we opined that further rate cuts were a near certainty and that “not-QE” would swiftly morph into “QE, next iteration” (see Rate Cutters Unanimous for the details). As it turned out, the monetary mandarins did not even wait for the official FOMC meeting before deciding to throw everything and the kitchen sink at the markets. Not only were rates insta-ZIRPed, but “not-QE” became “QE on steroids, plus”.
The federal debt monetization machinery goes into orbit. Moon landing next?
The “plus” stands for the alphabet soup of additional support programs for various slices of the credit markets, ranging from money markets to commercial paper to corporate bonds (investment grade only – for now). Alan Greenspan once said in Congressional testimony that if need be, the Fed would one day even “monetize oxen” – he may well live to see it.
What spooked the central bank was clearly the fact that corporate credit markets froze in response to the stock market crash and the lockdown measures. The latter have left a great many companies bereft of cash flows, not an ideal situation considering that trillions in corporate debt have to be refinanced in coming months and years. We have long argued that burgeoning corporate debt was the Achilles heel of the bubble, and this remains the case.
When the stock market crash started, money initially continued to flow into investment grade corporate bonds. LQD (investment grade corporate bond ETF) still made new highs in early March, while stocks were already in free-fall. But that didn’t last, and in less than two weeks LQD not only joined the crash, but began to trade at unprecedentedly large discounts to its NAV.
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Bank of Canada Announces Provincial, Corporate QE
Bank of Canada Announces Provincial, Corporate QE
While the Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 0.25% as expected – as the alternative after three consecutive rate cuts would have been to cut below its effective lower bound of 0.25% and go NIRP – the central bank – which announced that the outlook is too uncertain at this point to provide a complete forecast – did surprise markets by joining the unprecedented QE bandwagon, when it announced that just like the Fed it would launch $10BN corporate QE (just investment grade for now, thank you, junk bonds coming next), while throwing in $50BN provincial QE to boot. It also
Some details, from the report:
The Bank is also announcing today the development of a new Provincial Bond Purchase Program of up to $50 billion, to supplement its Provincial Money Market Purchase Program. Further, the Bank is announcing a new Corporate Bond Purchase Program, in which the Bank will acquire up to a total of $10 billion in investment grade corporate bonds in the secondary market. Both of these programs will be put in place in the coming weeks. Finally, the Bank is further enhancing its term repo facility to permit funding for up to 24 months.
These measures will work in combination to ease pressure on Canadian borrowers. As containment restrictions are eased and economic activity resumes, fiscal and monetary policy actions will help underpin confidence and stimulate spending by consumers and businesses to restore growth. The Bank’s Governing Council stands ready to adjust the scale or duration of its programs if necessary. All the Bank’s actions are aimed at helping to bridge the current period of containment and create the conditions for a sustainable recovery and achievement of the inflation target over time.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“Down The Rabbit Hole” – The Eurodollar Market Is The Matrix Behind It All
“Down The Rabbit Hole” – The Eurodollar Market Is The Matrix Behind It All
Summary
- The Eurodollar system is a critical but often misunderstood driver of global financial markets: its importance cannot be understated.
- Its origins are shrouded in mystery and intrigue; its operations are invisible to most; and yet it controls us in many ways. We will attempt to enlighten readers on what it is and what it means.
- However, it is also a system under huge structural pressures – and as such we may be about to experience a profound paradigm shift with key implications for markets, economies, and geopolitics.
- Recent Fed actions on swap lines and repo facilities only underline this fact rather than reducing its likelihood
What is The Matrix?
A new world-class golf course in an Asian country financed with a USD bank loan. A Mexican property developer buying a hotel in USD. A European pension company wanting to hold USD assets and swapping borrowed EUR to do so. An African retailer importing Chinese-made toys for sale, paying its invoice in USD.
All of these are small examples of the multi-faceted global Eurodollar market. Like The Matrix, it is all around us, and connects us. Also just like The Matrix, most are unaware of its existence even as it defines the parameters we operate within. As we shall explore in this special report, it is additionally a Matrix that encompasses an implicit power struggle that only those who grasp its true nature are cognizant of.
Moreover, at present this Matrix and its Architect face a huge, perhaps existential, challenge.
Yes, it has overcome similar crises before…but it might be that the Novel (or should we say ‘Neo’?) Coronavirus is The One.
So, here is the key question to start with: What is the Eurodollar system?
For Neo-phytes
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Takeover
Takeover
We can’t print ourselves out of this crisis again, but that isn’t stopping the Federal Reserve from trying. Thursday’s intervention program, the latest in a string of panic moves to keep the financial system afloat, constitutes a complete takeover attempt of the market ecosphere, only the buying of stocks directly is last missing piece of eventual complete central bank control of equity markets. But seizing control of the bond market is the nearest equivalent step.
Not only that, the Fed is buying junk corporate debt propping up companies that should be let to fail as Chamath Palihapitiya pointed out poignantly this week. But not this Fed, no, with its actions it is again setting up the economy for yet another slower growth recovery, financed by even more debt.
QE doesn’t produce growth, that is the established track record:
Nobody wants to talk about the consequences to come following this crisis, but that doesn’t mean the consequences won’t be a real and present reality.
No, the Fed, while trying to save the world, is once again engaged in vastly distorting asset prices from the fundamental reality of the economy. It is in essence again laying the foundation for the next bubble, while the bursting of this bubble has yet to be fully priced in.
Even the Wall Street Editorial Board has made it perfectly clear what this is all about:
The @WSJ Editorial Board tells you what the new price distortion is all about: Save Wall Street and the top 1% and hope for trickle down economics later:https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-feds-main-street-mistake-11586474912 …
Asset price inflation to save markets in the hopes of trickle down growth to come.
Absurd.
The message the Fed is again is sending is to invite reckless behavior on the side of investors, the same reckless, TINA, fueled behavior that got us the bubble blow-off top in February.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
#MacroView: Is The “Debt Chasm” Too Big For The Fed To Fill?
#MacroView: Is The “Debt Chasm” Too Big For The Fed To Fill?
Over the last month, the Federal Reserve, and the Government, have unleashed a torrent of liquidity into the U.S. markets to offset a credit crisis of historic proportions. Here is a list of programs already implemented which have already surpassed all programs during the “Financial Crisis.”
- March 6th – $8.3 billion “emergency spending” package.
- March 12th – Federal Reserve supplies $1.5 trillion in liquidity.
- March 13th – President Trump pledges to reprieve student loan interest payments
- March 13th – President Trump declares a “National Emergency” freeing up $50 billion in funds.
- March 15th – Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches $700 billion in “Q.E.”
- March 17th – Fed launches the Primary Dealer Credit Facility to buy corporate bonds.
- March 18th – Fed creates the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility
- March 18th – President Trump signs “coronavirus” relief plan to expand paid leave ($100 billion)
- March 20th – President Trump invokes the Defense Production Act.
- March 23rd – Fed pledges “Unlimited QE” of Treasury, Mortgage, and Corporate Bonds.
- March 23rd – Fed launches two Corporate Credit Facilities:
- A Primary Market Facility (Issuance of new 4-year bonds for businesses.)
- A Secondary Market Facility (Purchase of corporate bonds and corporate bond ETF’s)
- March 23rd – Fed launches the Term Asset-Backed Security Loan Facility (Small Business Loans)
- April 9th – Fed launches several new programs:
- The Paycheck Protection Program Loan Facility (Purchase of $350 billion in SBA Loans)
- A Main Street Business Lending Program ($600 billion in additional Small Business Loans)
- The Municipal Liquidity Facility (Purchase of $500 billion in Municipal Bonds.)
- Expands funding for PMCCF, SMCCF and TALF up to $850 billion.
Here is the Fed’s balance sheet through this past Wednesday (estimated at time of writing)
It is currently expected that over the course of the next several quarters, the Fed’s balance sheet will grow to $10 Trillion in total. Such would be a $6 Trillion expansion from the previous levels.
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This Curve Will Never Flatten Again: Fed Balance Sheet Hits $6.1 Trillion, Up $2 Trillion In 1 Month
This Curve Will Never Flatten Again: Fed Balance Sheet Hits $6.1 Trillion, Up $2 Trillion In 1 Month
Here is an example of a curve that everyone wants to flatten.
And here is an example of a curve that while some – namely the bears – also wants to see collapse, it will never do so as that would mean the end of western civilization – which is now entirely contingent on the level of the S&P500 – as we know it. We are talking of course, about the Fed balance sheet which is now well above $6 trillion to make sure stocks and bonds don’t crash.
With that in mind here is all you need to know about this particular “curve”:
Total Fed assets grew by $293Bn to $6.08 trillion as of close, April 8, with the increase primarily driven by $294bn of Treasury securities added to the SOMA portfolio. Through its credit facilities, the Fed also extended $680bn in temporary liquidity to various counterparties, a decline of $61bn from last week.
In the past month, the Fed balance sheet has increased by $2 trillion, more than all of QE3, when the balance sheet increased by $1.7 trillion over the span of a year. The balance sheet increase has also been faster on a weekly basis than anything observed during the financial crisis, increasing as follows:
- April 8: $$272BN
- April 1: $557BN
- March 25: $586BN
- March 17:$356BN
Since the Fed needs to monetize all debt issuance this year, and probably every other year now that the Treasury and Fed have merged and helicopter money has arrived, the pace of the current QE is like nothing ever observed before:
And since we know what the Fed’s POMO schedule is for next week: an increase of $225BN in TSYs and MBS…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
QE-4 Cut in Half this Week. Fed’s Helicopter Money for Wall Street & the Wealthy Hits $1.8 Trillion in 4 Weeks
QE-4 Cut in Half this Week. Fed’s Helicopter Money for Wall Street & the Wealthy Hits $1.8 Trillion in 4 Weeks
Regular folks need not apply.
Total assets on the Fed’s weekly balance sheet jumped by $272 billion in one week, to $6.08 trillion, according to the Fed’s release Thursday afternoon. Since the Fed started this spree of Wall Street and asset-holder bailout programs four weeks ago, total assets have exploded by $1.77 trillion.
But note: This increase of $272 billion is less than half of the increases in the prior two weeks. You can see this in the chart as the distance between the two markers this week shrank by half compared to the prior two weeks:
The assets on the Fed’s balance sheet are mostly composed of Treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities (MBS), repurchase agreements (repos), “foreign central bank liquidity swaps,” and “loans.” We’ll go through them one at a time.
Treasury securities.
The Fed added $293 billion in Treasury securities during the week of the balance sheet. But the total balance sheet increased by “only” – so to speak – $272 billion. So some of the other assets actually declined. And we’ll get to them.
This $293 billion spike in Treasury securities this week was also lower than the spikes in the prior weeks which averaged about $350 billion. This is one factor in the cut-in-half QE-4. For now, the Fed is sticking to its announcement that it would drastically cut QE from the prior weeks.
The Fed is now adding only Treasury securities with maturities of over one year (coupon Treasury securities, TIPS, and Floating Rate Notes). The balance of T-bills (non-coupon securities with maturities of one year or less) has remained roughly flat for four weeks, at $326 billion, and the Fed has only bought enough to replace T-bills that matured.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Nobody Knows Anything
Nobody Knows Anything
The more I read and observe the clearer the message: Nobody knows anything. And by that I mean nobody truly knows how any of this will turn out and I think this point needs to be driven home more clearly.
Tons of projections of this, that and the other. Just stop. I happen to think there are times to simply step back and not make grand predictions. For us that’s ok because we focus primarily on market technicals and that’s an ever evolving picture that offers us pivot points to decide when and where to get engaged in.
But on the macro? Give me a break. Nobody knows anything. Everybody is just guessing.
Exhibit A: GDP forecast for Q2:
Ok great. How’s that helping anyone in trying to value companies, cash flow, revenues, earnings? It doesn’t. -9% is a completely different planet than -40% and so is everything in between.
How does one qualify central bank and stimulus intervention? It changes every single day. Today the Fed cranked out an international repo program. Global central banks unite I guess. Also today Donald Trump tweeted about a $2 trillion infrastructure program. Who knows if it will happen. The Fed already increased its balance sheet by $1.3 trillion since the same time last year and may well be heading toward $9 or $10 trillion balance sheet position within a year. Last week they added $600B, basically all of QE2 in a week.
These are insane numbers thrown around, all on top of the $2.2 trillion stimulus package just passed. What’s the deficit going to be? I guess it depends on whether GDP drops by 40% or 9%.
Give me a break. How do you make any forecasts that have a predictive meaning whatsoever in this environment? Other than a lucky guess, the answer is nobody. Why? Because nobody knows anything.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
What Will Be the Unintended Consequences of Printing Trillions of Dollars to Backstop the Entire System?
What Will Be the Unintended Consequences of Printing Trillions of Dollars to Backstop the Entire System?
Stocks are up somewhat this morning.
This marks the second Monday stocks will open in the green (last Monday was a green open as well) following two horrifically bad weekend sessions that saw stocks open limit down or close to limit down (March 2nd and 9th).
In the simplest of terms, the panic in the markets appears to be abating. It is clear stocks have broken the downtrend from the panic (blue lines). What is not clear is whether this rally will continue or not.
Stocks stalled out under resistance (red line) last week. A break above that line would open the door to a run to 3,000.
At the end of the day, stocks are actually a minor player in this mess. The BIG story is what happens with the bond markets.
Going into last week, it was clear the financial system was facing a debt crisis. Across the board everything from corporate bonds to municipal bonds were breaking down in a catastrophic fashion.
The Fed managed to stop this massacre by announcing it would backstop everything.
The question now is whether that will be enough. Bonds have staged a major bounce in the last five days, but what happens if they turn down again?
Will the Fed’s announcement that it intends to buy corporate bonds be enough to stop the $10 trillion corporate bond bubble from imploding?
What about the $16-$19 trillion commercial real estate market? Will the shutdown, which has closed so many restaurants and retailers, result in a crisis in this market as businesses begin skipping monthly payments or breaking contracts outright?
And what about the $23 trillion U.S. treasury bubble? Will the $2 trillion in stimulus, which both the President and the Democrats have suggested will be the first of several, be what finally pushes the U.S.’s debt loads into a crisis?
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Loonie Dips After Bank Of Canada Emergency Rate-Cut, Launches QE
Loonie Dips After Bank Of Canada Emergency Rate-Cut, Launches QE
The Bank of Canada has just gone full-Fed-tard by slashing rates to just 0.2% and launching a commercial-paper-buying program and has committed to buy C$5bn Canadian Treasuries per week…
Negative rates next?
Full Bank of Canada Statement:
The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The spread of COVID-19 is having serious consequences for Canadians and for the economy, as is the abrupt decline in world oil prices. The pandemic-driven contraction has prompted decisive fiscal policy action in Canada to support individuals and businesses and to minimize any permanent damage to the structure of the economy.
The Bank is playing an important complementary role in this effort. Its interest rate setting cushions the impact of the shocks by easing the cost of borrowing. Its efforts to maintain the functioning of the financial system are helping keep credit available to people and companies. The intent of our decision today is to support the financial system in its central role of providing credit in the economy, and to lay the foundation for the economy’s return to normalcy.
The Bank’s efforts have been primarily focused on ensuring the availability of credit by providing liquidity to help markets continue to function. To promote credit availability, the Bank has expanded its various term repo facilities. To preserve market function, the Bank is conducting Government of Canada bond buybacks and switches, purchases of Canada Mortgage Bonds and banker’s acceptances, and purchases of provincial money market instruments. All these additional measures have been detailed on the Bank’s website and will be extended or augmented as needed.
Today, the Bank is launching two new programs.
Despite Massive QE And Congress Bill, The US Dollar Shortage Intensifies
Despite Massive QE And Congress Bill, The US Dollar Shortage Intensifies
How can the Fed launch an “unlimited” monetary stimulus with congress approving a $2 trillion package and the dollar index remain strong? The answer lies in the rising global dollar shortage, and should be a lesson for monetary alchemists around the world.
The $2 trillion stimulus package agreed by Congress is around 10% of GDP and, if we include the Fed borrowing facilities for working capital, it means $6 trillion in liquidity for consumers and firms over the next nine months.
The stimulus package approved by Congress is made up of the next key items: Permanent fiscal transfers to households and firms of almost $5 trillion. Individuals will receive a $1,200 cash payment ($300 billion in total). The loans for small businesses, which become grants if jobs are maintained ($367 billion). Increase in unemployment insurance payments which now cover 100% of lost wages for four months ($200 billion). $100 billion for the healthcare system, as well as $150bn for state and local governments. The remainder of the package comes from temporary liquidity support to households and firms, including tax delays and waivers. Finally, the use of the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund for $500bn of loans for non-financial firms.
To this, we must add the massive quantitative easing program announced by the Fed.
First, we must understand that the word “unlimited” is only a communication tool. It is not unlimited. It is limited by the confidence and demand of US dollars.
I have had the pleasure of working with several members of the Federal Reserve, and the truth is that it is not unlimited. But they know that communication matters.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Japan’s QE On Verge Of Failure As Nobody Wants To Sell To The BOJ
Japan’s QE On Verge Of Failure As Nobody Wants To Sell To The BOJ
Over a decade since central bankers started a stealthy nationalization of capital markets by purchasing a wide range of securities from Trasuries, to MBS, to corporate bonds, to ETFs and single stocks, their actions are finally catching up to them, and in the process breaking the very markets central bankers have worked so hard to prop up. And nowhere is this more obvious than in Japan, where the shrinking universe of Japanese government bonds (as a reminder the BOJ now owns more than 100% of Japanese GDP in JGBs) is “causing havoc” in Japanese money markets as the Bank of Japan continues to buy while dealers refuse to sell.
The result is that rates in Japan’s repo market, which traditionally connects holders of bonds with investors looking to borrow them, jumped to a record Tuesday (although they since retreated on Wednesday) because as Bloomberg notes, “the introduction of cheaper, more regular dollar-swap auctions has generated huge demand from U.S. currency-starved dealers who are keeping their JGBs to put them down as collateral.”
So here is what the math looks like now that the Fed has launched enhanced swap lines with central banks such as the BOJ, allowing local entities to obtain dollar funding at much lower rates: in last week’s first round of the Fed’s revamped dollar-swap auctions, banks borrowed greenbacks for about 3-months at 0.37%, a massive discount to the near 2% it would cost them in the currency swap market. $32 billion was alloted in the first operation.
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In Unprecedented Move, Fed Unveils Open-Ended QE Including Corporate Bonds
In Unprecedented Move, Fed Unveils Open-Ended QE Including Corporate Bonds
Coming into Monday, the Fed had a problem: it had already used up half of its entire emergency $700BN QE5 announced last weekend.
Which, together with the plunge in stocks, is why at 8am on Monday, just as we expected – given the political cover they have been provided– The Fed unveiled an unprecedented expansion to its mandate, announcing open-ended QE which also gave it the mandate to buy corporates bonds (in the primary and secondary market) to unclog the frozen corporate bond market as we just one step away from a full Fed nationalization of the market (only Fed stock purchases remain now).
As noted elsewhere, the Fed’s new credit facilities carry limits on paying dividends and making stock buybacks for firms that defer interest payments, but have no explicit restrictions preventing beneficiaries from laying off workers.
Additionally, in addition to Treasuries, The Fed will buy Agency Commercial MBS all in unlimited size.
The Fed will buy Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy,” and will also buy agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, according to a statement.
The Fed also said it will support “the flow of credit to employers, consumers and businesses by establishing new programs that, taken together, will provide up to $300 billion in new financing.” It will be backed by $30 billion from the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund.
Coincidentally, this unprecedented action takes place just hours after real estate billionaire Tom Barrack (and friend of Trump) said the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a “domino effect” of catastrophic economic consequences if banks and government don’t take prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
