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Nine of the 15 largest Canadian housing markets are showing some signs of overvaluation, the CMHC said.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said in its quarterly Housing Market Assessment Wednesday that a majority of Canada’s large housing markets are showing either “moderate” or “strong” evidence of being overvalued.

The housing agency looks at housing markets to gauge their health based on four factors:

overheating — when demand is significantly and persistently outpacing supply
overvalued — when prices are higher than they should be based on economic fundamentals
accelerating — when house prices are increasing faster than household costs of living are
overbuilding — when supply of new homes significantly outpaces demand.

The agency rates each market on a colour coded scale where green means there is little evidence of that factor, yellow means there is moderate evidence of it and red means there is strong evidence of it.

Read the CMHC’s report here

On the overvaluation front, the CMHC says there is moderate or strong evidence of that happening in Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon, Regina, Hamilton, Toronto, Montreal and Quebec City.

Four of those cities — Toronto, Quebec City, Vancouver and Saskatoon — now show “strong” signs of overvaluation.

The first two were singled out in the agency’s last report on housing in January. But the latter two were only recently given their red warning on overvaluation.

In Vancouver’s case, the housing agency said “Single-detached home prices are now observed to be at levels higher than those consistent with financial, economic and demographic fundamentals.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NEB approves Enbridge Line 3 pipeline replacement

April 25, 2016

NEB approves Enbridge Line 3 pipeline replacement

Conditions include consultation with First Nations

Enbridge is proposing to replace its Line 3 pipeline from Hardisty, Alta., to Superior, Wis. If approved, it will approximately double the amount of oil shipped daily.

Enbridge is proposing to replace its Line 3 pipeline from Hardisty, Alta., to Superior, Wis. If approved, it will approximately double the amount of oil shipped daily. (Canadian Press)

The federal government must now make a decision on the project.

Enbridge wants to spend $7.5 billion to replace its Line 3 pipeline, which stretches 1,660 kilometres from Hardisty, Alta., to Superior, Wis.

The pipeline is currently operating at about half capacity after the company voluntarily reduced pressure because of reliability concerns.

“The Enbridge Line 3 project is in the Canadian public interest and is not likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects,” said Robert Steedman, the NEB’s chief environmental officer.

As part of the NEB’s decision, Enbridge must develop a plan for Aboriginal groups to participate in monitoring construction.

Several groups oppose the pipeline project, including First Nations and environmental groups in Manitoba and Minnesota. The company has already delayed its expected completion date from 2017 to 2019 because of the regulatory process in Minnesota.

“The hearing panel believes there is an important opportunity at this juncture for Enbridge to renew, and in some cases, improve its relationship with Aboriginal groups,” said Steedman.

The project will be subject to the federal government’s new environmental assessment process, which was announced in January.

The upgrade would allow the line to pump a maximum of 760,000 barrels per day, up from the 390,000 barrels it is currently able to move.

Line 3 already has presidential approval, but the replacement project must undergo separate permitting processes in the U.S. before construction can begin.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

5 things George Orwell understood

April 24, 2016

5 things George Orwell understood

Famed author implores us to be vigilant, and to keep the faiths of decency, tolerance and humanity

George Orwell at the BBC in 1941. The insights of his books and many other writings still resonate today.

George Orwell at the BBC in 1941. The insights of his books and many other writings still resonate today. (Penguin Books India)

Related Stories

“Big Brother is watching you” is George Orwell’s most famous line from his most famous book. But there’s so much more to the man who gave us terms like “doublethink,” “thoughtcrime” and “newspeak”; Orwell reminds us there’s a connection between clarity of language and truth.

That’s why he implores us to be vigilant, to be on guard for freedom, and to keep the faith: the triple faiths of decency, tolerance and humanity.

I’ve long been fascinated by Orwell and, in the summer of 1983, when it was still possible to meet people who knew him — from his first days to his final hours — I spent two hectic months in England, Scotland and Spain recording 75 interviews.

I made a total of 50 hours’ worth of recordings which, taken together, give a detailed and nuanced picture of a man who was one of the most influential writers of our time.

I included some — but by no means all — of this unique archive in George Orwell, a Radio Biography which aired on CBC Radio 1 on Jan. 1, 1984. Recently I went back into those original recordings, to bring out insights that had never been aired before, and created a new three-hour series for CBC Radio’s Ideas called The Orwell Tapes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

House affordability improving in some parts of Canada, National Bank says

April 20, 2016

House affordability improving in some parts of Canada, National Bank says

Mortgage rates probably won't be dramatically changed by the Bank of Canada's benchmark overnight rate, economists say.

Mortgage rates probably won’t be dramatically changed by the Bank of Canada’s benchmark overnight rate, economists say. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

Six of 10 markets surveyed showed improvement in affordability, the bank said, with the biggest improvements seen in Calgary, Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau.

Pockets of affordability emerge

The bank’s gauge of affordability is the percentage of income required for a monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home, assuming a 25-year amortization and a five-year term.

In Calgary, which has been hit hard by the dramatic drop in oil prices, the the mortgage payment stood at 28.2 per cent of income for the first quarter of this year. That was off by 0.7 percentage points from the last quarter of 2015, and down by 2.2 percentage points from the first three months of last year, the bank said.

‘Montreal homes have become the most affordable in a decade’– National Bank

In Montreal, the first quarter drop was 0.5 percentage points from the end of last year, the same decline seen in the Ottawa-Gatineau area.

“Montreal homes have become the most affordable in a decade,” National Bank economists Matthieu Arsenau and Kyle Dahms said in their report.

They also said Calgary’s percentage of income needed for a monthly payment is now at a record low.

Nationally, the portion of income increased by 0.1 percentage points to 31 per cent in the first three months of the year, the bank said. That followed a increase of 0.8 percentage points in the last three months of 2015.

Meanwhile, Vancouver and Toronto continue to see soaring prices, and eroding afforability, the bank said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stéphane Dion approves export permits for $11B in LAVs to be sent to Saudi Arabia

April 14, 2016

Stéphane Dion approves export permits for $11B in LAVs to be sent to Saudi Arabia

Documents say past sales have not been linked to violations of civil or political rights in the kingdom

Documents obtained by CBC News are shedding light on the strategy the federal government is using to justify the sale of light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia.

The newly revealed documents from Global Affairs Canada confirm that Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Dion has signed off on export permits to ship $11 billion worth of the $15-billion vehicle sale to the desert kingdom.

These documents also say that it’s rare for a foreign affairs minister to personally sign off on export permits, but that this is an exception because the deal is so high profile — and worth so much money.

The deal with Saudi Arabia was struck by Stephen Harper’s government, and when it was announced the Conservatives used the opportunity to tout the thousands of jobs it would create and sustain in southern Ontario.

But since the sale of vehicles by General Dynamics Land Systems was announced, questions have emerged over Saudi Arabia’s human rights record.

Saudi rights violations noted

The documents acknowledge these concerns noting; “the reported high number of executions, suppression of political opposition, the application of corporal punishment, suppression of freedom of expression, arbitrary arrest, ill-treatment of detainees, limitations of freedom of religion, discrimination against women and the mistreatment of migrant workers.”

The document goes on to say that Canadian officials “engage regularly with Saudi officials” when required to raise human rights issues of concern while at the same time describing Canada’s military alliance with the kingdom as having been “cemented” during the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

“Saudi Arabia is a key military ally supporting international efforts to counter ISIS in Iraq and Syria as well as countering instability in Yemen,” the documents says.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.5%

April 13, 2016

Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.5%

Central bank’s rate has impact on rates offered by commercial banks for loans and savings accounts

The Bank of Canada, lead by governor Stephen Poloz, kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.5 per cent on Wednesday.

The Bank of Canada, lead by governor Stephen Poloz, kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.5 per cent on Wednesday. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

The Bank of Canada’s rate, known as its target for the overnight rate, affects what Canadian borrowers and savers are offered from commercial banks on their loans and investments.

BANK OF CANADA KEY OVERNIGHT RATE Broadly speaking, the bank cuts rates when it wants to stimulate the economy, and hikes rates when it wants to pump the brakes on inflation.

After standing on the sidelines for years, the bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate twice last year in an attempt to stimulate a Canadian economy waylaid by low oil prices.

Since then, the economy has showed signed of improvement, however, as the cheap loonie has helped manufacturers and exporters, and oil prices have stabilized around the $40 level in recent months.

In January, Canada’s gross domestic product grew by its biggest amount in more than two years, official data showed last month. That helps explain the new cautiously optimistic outlook from the central bank’s decision-makers.

BANK OF CANADA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK “It does appear that the positive forces at work in the economy are starting to outweigh those that are negative,” the bank said in its statement Wednesday. “First-quarter GDP growth appears to have been unexpectedly strong.”

The Canadian dollar reacted positively to the news, erasing earlier losses of about a third of a cent to trade hands virtually unchanged on the day, at 78.35 cents US.

While keeping rates steady for now, the bank hiked its forecast of how it expects the economy to perform this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Farmland prices up 10% last year as property boom spreads to agriculture

April 11, 2016

Farmland prices up 10% last year as property boom spreads to agriculture

All provinces saw increases, but not as much as in previous years

The price of farmland increased by more than 10 per cent, on average, last year.

The price of farmland increased by more than 10 per cent, on average, last year. (Parwiz/Reuters)

A report released Monday by Farm Credit Canada says last year’s gains are part of a continuous upward trend that started in 1993.

The gains, however, are lower than in recent years, and pale in comparison to the 22 per cent increase seen in 2013, and the 14 per cent seen in 2014.

Regional variation

The agricultural finance group says prices aren’t going up evenly across the country. Despite the higher average nationally and in every province, many more regions across the country saw price declines in 2015 than saw them in 2014.

“There appears to be greater volatility with a higher number of locales where values decreased,” FCC said in a release, advising farmers to prepare for a potential softening of the market as lower crop prices have an impact.

Across the country last year, farmland increased on average by:

12.4 per cent in Manitoba.
11.6 per cent in Alberta.
9.6 per cent in Quebec.
9.4 per cent in Saskatchewan.
8.5 per cent in Prince Edward Island.
7.7 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador.
6.6 per cent in Ontario.
6.5 per cent in British Columbia.
6.3 per cent in Nova Scotia.
2.6 per cent in New Brunswick.

J.P. Gervais, the group’s chief agricultural economist, says farmers didn’t feel the full effects of lower commodity prices last year because of the significant drop in the Canadian dollar.

But looking ahead, Gervais says 2016 could see more modest farmland value gains of two to four per cent as farmer incomes — known as crop receipts — start to be affected.

“The best-case scenario would be for the average value of farmland to reach a point of long-term stability, where any future increases or decreases are modest and incremental,” Gervais said.

Apple crop under threat after cold snap follows early spring

April 8, 2016

Apple crop under threat after cold snap follows early spring

Warm weather caused apple trees to start budding earlier than normal, and the fruits are now in danger by the cold snap that followed.

Warm weather caused apple trees to start budding earlier than normal, and the fruits are now in danger by the cold snap that followed. (Pascal Rossignol/Reuters)

“It definitely was cold enough so that there could be some catastrophic damage to the majority of the apple crop,” said Jake Samascott, whose family grows about 100 acres of apples on their farm south of Albany.

The unseasonably cold air moved into Northeast and mid-Atlantic states this week shortly after a warm spell sped up bud growth on apple trees. Buds become more sensitive to cold as they mature, making the cold snap especially troubling in big apple-producing states such as New York. Farmers are starting to assess the damage this week with another round of plummeting temperatures looming.

Damage still unknown

“We have at least one more cold night by the end of the weekend, early next week, if forecasts hold, to get through,” said Ben Wenk of Three Springs Fruit Farm in Aspers, Pennsylvania, southwest of Harrisburg. “And of course there’s not a whole lot we can do about it.”

Farmers are already checking individual buds for damage but don’t expect to have an estimate of losses until next week at the earliest.

Samascott said his orchard could lose 90 per cent of its apple crop because of temperatures that dipped to 10 degrees and below. Three Springs could lose half its early varieties like Honeycrisp and Gala. Wenk also is worried about his peaches, blueberries and strawberries.

Some apple farmers try to mitigate damage by employing windmill-like machines to direct warmer air at the trees, but they are still left playing a waiting game.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Royal Bank and BMO defend Canada’s banking sector amid Panama Papers and Fintrac fine

April 7, 2016

Royal Bank and BMO defend Canada’s banking sector amid Panama Papers and Fintrac fine

Bad week for big banks as tax haven discussion hits at same time as fine levied for lack of disclosur

It has been a rough week, reputationally for Canadian banks, but fundamentally they remain among the world’s best. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)

Royal Bank of Canada CEO David McKay said at the bank’s annual general meeting in Montreal on Wednesday that the bank is currently combing through its records to see what ties the bank may have to Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca, which is at the heart of the current banking secrecy scandal.

On Monday, RBC was implicated in the Panama Papers scandal when documents in the leak unearthed that the bank had created at least 370 foreign corporations on behalf of its clients via Mossack Fonseca over the years.

While there’s nothing illegal in and of itself from setting up a foreign bank account, such vehicles can be used to evade taxes, as opposed to avoiding and minimizing them via legitimate means.

McKay said he is unhappy the bank’s name has been “dragged into” the controversy involving offshore tax evasion allegations, especially considering that there is no evidence to suggest the company has done anything illicit.

“As a CEO, I have to be concerned about our brand and reputation, particularly in a situation where there’s absolutely no allegation of wrongdoing,” McKay said.

“We just happen to have a couple hundred files, going back 40 years, that are attached to this legal firm,” he said. “That’s all that’s been reported.”

Panama Papers only a glimpse into ‘astonishing’ wealth stashed offshore

April 6, 2016

Panama Papers only a glimpse into ‘astonishing’ wealth stashed offshore

Some estimates suggest between 8 and 14 per cent of global wealth is kept in tax havens

It's estimated that at least $7 trillion and up to $32 trillion is currently kept in holdings in tax havens.

It’s estimated that at least $7 trillion and up to $32 trillion is currently kept in holdings in tax havens. (Eric Gaillard/Reuters)

The provocative revelations coming out of the so-called Panama Papers are just a glimpse into the murky global network that’s keeping “absolutely astonishing” amounts of money out of public coffers.

The 11.5 million files taken from Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca show how the financial elite exploit a secretive system to manoeuvre wealth anonymously and ensure the taxman doesn’t take his cut.

The firm is “the world’s fourth biggest provider of offshore services,” according to the Guardian, with about $42 million in yearly revenue. The documents contain information about more than 214,000 shell companies, trusts and foundations — usually used to hold or transfer financial assets while obfuscating the identity of their real owner — that were registered with the firm.

“That gives a sense of the tremendous scope of this in terms of the flows of money into these largely mysterious companies, and this is only one firm,” says Nicholas Shaxson, an investigative journalist and author of Treasure Islands: Tax Havens and the Men who Stole the World.

It’s difficult to delineate what constitutes a tax haven but it’s generally agreed that, depending on the criteria, there are between 70 and 92 states serving as such worldwide. And there’s an estimated two million shell companies registered with offshore firms in these states.

Panama Papers shell company graphic

(CBC)

“For a long time, people thought of tax havens as an exotic sideshow of the world economy. Now it’s clear they are absolutely central to it. We’re talking about absolutely astonishing, mind-boggling amounts of money,” Shaxson says.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

TPP ‘worst trade deal ever,’ says Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz

April 1, 2016

TPP ‘worst trade deal ever,’ says Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz

Trans-Pacific Partnership should be redone to advance interests of citizens, not corporations, he says

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the Trans-Pacific Partnership may well be the worst trade agreement ever negotiated, and he recommends Canada insist on reworking it.

“I think what Canada should do is use its influence to begin a renegotiation of TPP to make it an agreement that advances the interests of Canadian citizens and not just the large corporations,” he said in an interview with CBC’s The Exchange on Thursday.

Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University in New York, was a keynote speaker at a conference at the University of Ottawa on Friday about the complex trade deal.

Stiglitz takes issue with the TPP’s investment-protection provisions, which he says could interfere with the ability of governments to regulate business or to move toward a low-carbon economy.

Multinationals have right to sue

It’s the “worst part of agreement,” he says, because it allows large multinationals to sue the Canadian government.

“It used to be the basic principle was polluter pay,” Stiglitz said. “If you damaged the environment, then you have to pay. Now if you pass a regulation that restricts ability to pollute or does something about climate change, you could be sued and could pay billions of dollars.”

There were similar provisions in North American Free Trade Agreement that led to the Canadian government being sued, but the TPP goes even further.

He said the provision could be used to prevent raising of minimum wages or to overturn rules that prevent usury or predatory lending practices.

Stiglitz argues the deal, which is a 6,000-page mammoth and extremely complex, should have been negotiated openly.

“This deal was done in secret with corporate interests at the table,” he said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Vancouver, Toronto home buyers not ‘reckless,’ just numerous

March 31, 2016

Vancouver, Toronto home buyers not ‘reckless,’ just numerous

National Bank economist says household formation, not speculation, is driving up prices

National Bank economist says even Vancouver apartments may not be overvalued by world standards.

National Bank economist says even Vancouver apartments may not be overvalued by world standards. (Canadian Press)

Instead, the prices they face reflect the rapid growth of employment in both cities and the fact that the population of young people aged 20 to 44 is growing, he says in a new report.

Plenty of analysts are saying these markets are in bubble territory, and buyers risk losing their money. Some even say the markets are hot, because of Chinese buyers snapping up property as a safe investments. Marion dismisses these concerns.

It’s wrong to think the rapidly rising housing prices in these two markets are the result of speculation, he adds.

Instead, housing prices — which rose 27 per cent in the year to February in Vancouver and 11 per cent in the same period in Toronto — are being driven higher by an influx of people who are settling in the city.

“The working age population is growing about 70 per cent faster than the national average in Vancouver and Toronto on the back of strong inflows of highly educated immigrants who can more easily integrate into the job market,” he wrote in the report.

Marion argues that employment surged by 5.5 per cent in Toronto in 2015 and 4.4 per cent in Vancouver.

Underlying force

That helps attract people aged 20 to 44, the stage in life when people get jobs, put down roots and form households.

“The underlying force for housing demand is household formation,” Marion said.

Canada is lucky to have one of the fastest increases in household formation in the OECD in recent years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canada due for debt crisis and recession, economist argues

March 30, 2016

Canada due for debt crisis and recession, economist argues

Credit growth has to stop at some point, and then economy shrinks, argues Steve Keen

Finance Minister Bill Morneau has just delivered a budget that will put Canada deeper in debt. A Forbes columnist argues that puts Canada on track for a credit crisis.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau has just delivered a budget that will put Canada deeper in debt. A Forbes columnist argues that puts Canada on track for a credit crisis. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

The trigger will be too much credit, with companies and individuals discouraged from borrowing because their debt is too high and banks then balk at lending, said Steve Keen, head of the school of economics, politics and history at Kingston University London.

A critic of conventional economics, he argues that economists failed to anticipate the global financial crisis of 2008 because they ignored the phenomenon of banks lending too much money.

That’s the situation Canada is approaching now, along with China, Australia, Sweden, Hong Kong, Korea and Norway, he writes in “The seven countries most vulnerable to a debt crisis.”

“Timing precisely when these countries will have their recessions is not possible, because it depends on when the private sector’s willingness to borrow from the banks — and the banking sector’s willingness to lend — stops,” he writes.

Government stimulus programs and programs to support first-time home buyers can postpone the pain, he argues, but credit cannot keep growing at such a rapid rate, unless GDP is growing more rapidly.

Soon to be ‘walking wounded’

“When it arrives, these countries — many of which appeared to avoid the worst of the crisis in 2008 — will join the world’s long list of walking wounded economies,” Keen says.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Alberta and oil prices: How Middle East geopolitics and religion affect our future

March 28, 2016

Alberta and oil prices: How Middle East geopolitics and religion affect our future

Calgary’s economic fortunes enmeshed in decisions made on the other side of the globe

Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi at a news conference following a meeting in Doha, Qatar February 16, 2016.

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi at a news conference following a meeting in Doha, Qatar February 16, 2016. (Naseem Zeitoon/Reuters)

Calgary is unlike most other cities.

It is a city of 1.2 million people separated from its two nearest urban neighbours by 300 kilometres of prairie and 1,000 kilometres of mountains.

Yet as a city Calgary’s economic fortunes are affected less by the surrounding landscapes and neighbouring cities, and more by difficult-to-comprehend and impossible-to-influence decisions made on the other side of the planet.

For better or for worse Calgary’s well-being and prospects hinge on the world price of oil.

Here is a look at the escalating rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia and what its impact might be on Calgary.

The history of the rivalry

We have visited and worked in both countries.

To Alberta eyes there are many similarities between the two Middle Eastern countries ruled by adherents of Islam.

But that only makes the rivalry more difficult to understand.

So, what are the differences between the two countries? What is the historical basis of this national rivalry?

Why is it heightened today?

And does all this have any implications for Calgary’s economic fortunes as a city tied in to the global oil market?

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran are the largest and most powerful countries in the Middle East.

Ethnically Saudi Arabia is Arab while Iran is predominantly Persian.

Saudis speak Arabic, while Iranians speak Farsi.

Shi’ite Muslims try to cross a barricade during a protest against the execution of cleric Nimr al-Nimr, who was executed along with others in Saudi Arabia, in front of Saudi Arabia embassy in New Delhi, India, January 4, 2016. (Adnan Abidi/Reuters)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World Class Journalist Spills the Beans, Admits Mainstream Media is Completely Fake

March 28, 2016

World Class Journalist Spills the Beans, Admits Mainstream Media is Completely Fake

Recently, Dr. Ulfakatte went on public television stating that he was forced to publish the works of intelligence agents under his own name, also adding that noncompliance with these orders would result in him losing his job.

He recently made an appearance on RT news to share these facts:

I’ve been a journalist for about 25 years, and I was educated to lie, to betray, and not to tell the truth to the public.

But seeing right now within the last months how the German and American media tries to bring war to the people in Europe, to bring war to Russia — this is a point of no return and I’m going to stand up and say it is not right what I have done in the past, to manipulate people, to make propaganda against Russia, and it is not right what my colleagues do and have done in the past because they are bribed to betray the people, not only in Germany, all over Europe.

Dr. Udo Ulfkotte

Dr. Udo Ulfkotte is a top German journalist and editor and has been for more than two decades, so you can bet he knows a thing or two about mainstream media and what really happens behind the scenes.

It’s important to keep in mind that Dr. Ulfakatte is not the only person making these claims; multiple reporters have done the same and this kind of truthfulness is something the world needs more of.

One (out of many) great examples of a whistleblowing reporter is investigative journalist and former CBC News reporter Sharyl Attkisson.

She delivered a hard-hitting TEDx talk showing how fake grassroots movements funded by political, corporate, or other special interests very effectively manipulate and distort media messages.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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