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Before Winter Comes

September 8, 2022

Before Winter Comes

I didn’t think it would be necessary for me to start talking about energy issues quite so soon. Granted, industrial civilization remains hopelessly dependent for its very survival on dwindling supplies of fossil fuels, which are being used up at breakneck paces to prop up the absurdly extravagant lifestyles of a handful of rich nations.  Granted, the “green energy revolution” that soaked up so much investment money in recent decades turned out to be yet another gargantuan giveaway to corporations, while plenty of more modest investments that might have done some good got deep-sixed because they didn’t make the kleptocratic rich even richer. Granted, our governments have wasted decades we didn’t have to spare and squandered resources that might have enabled us to cushion the descent into the deindustrial future ahead of us.

Even so, I thought we had a little longer before the remorseless mathematics of depletion tipped us over from rising prices to actual shortages. Of course I didn’t expect the Russo-Ukrainian War to break out, or for Europe to respond with a flurry of shrill denunciations and ineffective sanctions while still demanding that Russia keep supplying it with oil and natural gas.  Russia’s angry riposte hasn’t just driven energy bills across Europe to unprecedented heights. It’s also shown just how brittle global energy markets have become—and that in turn offers fair warning of how little spare capacity the world’s remaining fossil fuel reserves have left.

Those of my readers who remember the energy crises of the 1970s, as I do, may be forgiven a certain sense of déjà vu.  Back then it was a war between Israel and an alliance of Arab nations that caused a major fossil fuel supplier to yank their product from the market, sending prices skyrocketing…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Winter, Collapse Is Coming to Britain

September 5, 2022

Britain Is Standing at the Edge of Social Collapse’s Abyss — And It’s About to Jump

Image via Mark Thompson on Twitter

These days, my British friends ask me the same question, with the same faint tinge of terror in their voices. “So. How bad is it going to be?” What they mean is…well, let me try to explain why they’re asking.

Right about now, Britain’s setting records. Not good ones. It’s the rich world’s worst performing country in a stunning multitude of regards — falling incomes, crashing economy, skyrocketing inflation, dwindling confidence and optimism. Twice as many people died in Britain this summer of Covid than they did last summer. They were mostly elderly people, and that’s a parable for what modern Britain’s become: a stunningly cruel, indifferent, embittered society, inured to the grim reality of its own collapse.

Britain is the world’s preeminent bellwether of social collapse at this point in history. No nation in the rich world — and barely any in the poor one, really — come close. The rest of the world is dusting itself off after a rough few years, and restarting the engines of progress. But in Britain? Well, the engines of regress are pumping. Literally — sewage into the rivers. What kind of country wants to cover itself in its own — never mind.

For some reason that the world can’t quite fathom, Britain has decided to turn itself a kind of Neo Victorian dystopia, by way of American style ultra libertarianism. Think about how baffling and strange this really is for a moment. The nation that was renowned for its NHS and BBC, which invented the idea of the public park and the modern public library and museum. Now? It’s the kind of place with would make Dickens entire cast of villains, from Uriah Heep to Fagin, cackle in morbid glee.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Darker and Colder: Europeans Warned of ‘Unprecedented’ Power Failures This Winter

September 3, 2022

Darker and Colder: Europeans Warned of ‘Unprecedented’ Power Failures This Winter

“Production of electricity cannot keep up with demand.”

jonathanfilskov-photography via Getty Images

Europeans are being warned of ‘unprecedented’ power failures this winter as the energy crisis brings a foreseeable future that will be colder and darker.

“There is an increased risk of a lack of power this winter,” Klaus Winther, deputy director at Energinet, the Danish national transmission system operator for electricity and natural gas, told TV2.

Winther says the crisis will herald a new era of energy consumption predicated on rationing to prevent blackouts.

A “perfect storm” of soaring prices, a hot dry summer, and a collapse in the confidence of energy security means power grid failures are now a real possibility.

“The production of electricity cannot keep up with the demand, and this increases the probability of a power failure,” said Winther.

Although insisting that “power cuts are the absolutely last tool we have in the drawer,” Winther warned that individual distribution companies may be forced to shut off electricity supplies for hours at a time to avoid longer blackouts.

Meanwhile, Brian Vad Mathiesen, professor of energy planning at Aalborg University, said Danes may have to adopt a 1970’s oil crisis-style mentality and get used to living in colder and darker houses.

“We must create energy-saving campaigns on a scale we cannot imagine, and everyone must take responsibility,” he said.

Meanwhile, in neighboring Sweden, the prospect of sustained power outages has been increased from “low” to “real,” with the more populated areas most at risk.

“This winter, at its coldest, there is a real risk that we will have to interrupt electricity consumption in parts of southern Sweden,” strategic operations manager for Swedish power grid operator Svenska Kraftnät, Erik Ek, said in a press release.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“How In The Name Of God”: Shocked Europeans Post Astronomical Energy Bills As ‘Terrifying Winter’ Approaches

August 31, 2022

“How In The Name Of God”: Shocked Europeans Post Astronomical Energy Bills As ‘Terrifying Winter’ Approaches

Over the past week, shocked Europeans – mostly in the UK and Ireland – have been posting viral photos of shockingly high energy bills amid the ongoing (and worsening) energy crisis.

Several of the posts were from small business owners who getting absolutely crushed right now, and won’t be able to remain operational much longer.

One such owner is Geraldine Dolan, who owns the Poppyfields cafe in Athlone, Ireland – and was charged nearly €10,000 (US$10,021) for just over two months of energy usage.

Geraldine Dolan, of Poppy Fields Cafe, Athlone, with an electricity bill for just under ten thousand euro for two months. Photograph: Dara Mac Dónaill / The Irish Times Photograph: Dara Mac Donaill / The Irish Times

As the Irish Times reports, “The cost of electricity to the Poppyfields cafe for 73 days from early June until the end of August came in at €9,024.70 an increase of 250 per cent in just 12 months. There doesn’t include the €812.22 in VAT, which brought her total bill to €9,836.92.”

“How in the name of God is this possible,” tweeted Dolan.

UK pensioners are also facing a “terrifying” winter, as elderly Britons are about to get hit with an 80% rise in energy bills in October.

Elderly Britons are set to welcome a boost of around £1,000 to their state pension payments next year thanks to the return of the triple lock, however the cost of living crisis will still leave them significantly poorer.

However, the price cap for energy bills will rise by 80 per cent to £3,549 in October, and it is predicted to rise over £6,600 next year according to Cornwall Insight.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

“This Is Beyond Imagination”: Polish Homeowners Line Up For Days To Buy Coal Ahead Of Winter

August 28, 2022

“This Is Beyond Imagination”: Polish Homeowners Line Up For Days To Buy Coal Ahead Of Winter

Several weeks ago we reported that amid Europe’s mindblowing gas and electricity prices, Deutsche Bank predicted that a growing number of German households will be using firewood for heating, a forecast which appears to have become self-fulfilling as German google searches for firewood (“brennholz”) had since exploded off the charts:

But while Germans are still “searching” merely in the virtual realm, for countless Poles the search is all too real.

According to Reuters, with Poland still basking in the late summer heat, hundreds of cars and trucks have already lined up at the Lubelski Wegiel Bogdanka coal mine, as householders fearful of winter shortages wait for days and nights to stock up on heating fuel ahead of the coming cold winter in queues reminiscent of communist times.

Artur, 57, a pensioner, drove up from Swidnik, some 30 km (18 miles) from the mine in eastern Poland on Tuesday, hoping to buy several tonnes of coal for himself and his family.

“Toilets were put up today, but there’s no running water,” he said, after three nights of sleeping in his small red hatchback in a crawling queue of trucks, tractors towing trailers and private cars. “This is beyond imagination, people are sleeping in their cars. I remember the communist times but it didn’t cross my mind that we could return to something even worse.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Winter is Coming for the UK

August 20, 2022

Winter is Coming for the UK

The outlook for the UK looks increasingly grim. There are few reasons to hope a new government can reverse the mounting consumer fears, stagflation and the growing sense of decline.

“Tell them the North remembers. Tell them Winter is Coming.”

This morning. The outlook for the UK looks increasingly grim. There are few reasons to hope a new government can reverse the mounting consumer fears, stagflation and the growing sense of decline.

Yesterday was cold, wet and grey. The sudden end of the glorious summer highlights how dark and bleak the mood in the UK has become. UK Consumer confidence has collapsed to levels not seen since the 1970s. London has ground to a halt with tube and rail strikes. Its not just the cost of living crisis – which, to be blunt, has only just begun and will get much, much worse as winter deepens– but folk are losing confidence in the broken mechanics of the economy, the absence of leadership and a growing sense things won’t get any better.

The country feels like its sinking into a treacle of energy-sucking, suffocating despond. Everything in Britain feels broken: the NHS is too crowded to treat patients, excess death rates show untreated cancers, heart-disease and stokes from lockdown now far outnumber Covid deaths, the police are so overloaded they have stopped even bothering to investigate crime, while airports are blocked, trains don’t work, and it really doesn’t matter because you can’t get a passport or driving licence renewed. As the rains come down, we’re under threat of dire authoritarian punishment if we dare use a garden hose – although to be fair, who is going to arrest you?

Thank heaven we’re about to get a new prime minister – SARCASM ALERT.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

German Consumers Just Learned How Much Extra They Will Have To Pay For Gas This Winter

August 17, 2022

German Consumers Just Learned How Much Extra They Will Have To Pay For Gas This Winter

With millions of German facing a painful freeze in the coming months, a winter gas surcharge, which will come into effect in October for German households and businesses, was set at 2.4 euro cents per kilowatt hour on Monday, DW reported on Monday.

Gas prices have been driven by German sanctions on Russian gas, prompting market concerns about energy security and also shortfalls in deliveries in some cases.  And while so far, consumers have been largely shielded from the increases, with companies unable to pass on their increased costs, all that is about to change. 

“It will get more expensive — there is no getting around that. Energy prices continue to rise. But: we are already unburdening citizens to the tune of €30 billion,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Twitter on Monday, soon after the announcement. “And we are working on a further relief package. We will leave nobody alone with these increased costs.” 

The decision on the amount of the levy fell to the company charged with overseeing and coordinating the German gas market, Trading Hub Europe.  The stated aim of the levy is to cover around 90% of the additional costs incurred by gas providers who are now paying higher prices to secure gas, in some cases from new sources other than Russia.

Just under half of German households are heated using gas, the most popular method by far in the country. German dependence on Russian gas has become notorious this year amid the war in Ukraine, both for household power and for industry.

Government seeks sales tax exemption

Finance Minister Christian Lindner has already said he aims to soften the blow by appealing in Brussels for the right to waive sales tax on the new gas levy…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

German Officials Warn Of Draconian Energy Regulations, “Extremists” Fueling “Mass Protests And Riots”

August 15, 2022

German Officials Warn Of Draconian Energy Regulations, “Extremists” Fueling “Mass Protests And Riots”

As queries for “firewood” have exploded on Google in Germany, and Deutsche Bank predicting that “wood will be used for heating purposes where possible,” German officials are now warning of extreme energy rationing measures, along with the potential for “extremists” to fuel national unrest over the deteriorating situation.

For starters, German Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck – who previously called on residents to cut back on heating, visits to the sauna, and showers – announced on Friday that public buildings across the country won’t be allowed to set heating above 19 degrees Celsius (66.2F) this fall. Exceptions will be made for hospitals and ‘social facilities.’

In an interview with Suddeutsche Zeitung, one of the country’s largest daily newspapers, Habeck said that the new regulations would be part of the Energy Security Act – adding to previously announced bans on heating private pools.

In addition, buildings and monuments will not longer be lit at night, and there will be curbs on illuminated advertising – while “more savings are also needed in the work environment,” he added.

Habeck’s announcement comes just days after the head of Germany’s grid regulator, Klaus Mueller, said that German families would need to cut 20% of their normal energy consumption in order to avoid gas shortages by December.

“If we don’t save a lot and get extra fuel, we will have a problem,” he told Welt am Sonntag in an interview last week.

The situation has been brewing, as the bloc’s reliance on Russian energy comes into conflict with sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine – causing prices to skyrocket amid a decrease in Russian natural gas supplies to Europe.

Meanwhile, German officials are preparing for civil unrest.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EU Prepares Public For Winter Gas Siege

July 28, 2022

EU Prepares Public For Winter Gas Siege

European Union policymakers have started to prepare the public for siege conditions this winter if gas supplies from Russia are completely cut, an effort to demonstrate diplomatic resolve as well as avoid panic later in the year.

In recent weeks, officials from Germany and other EU member states have begun to talk openly and urgently about the need for immediate reductions in consumption in advance of the peak winter heating season.

They have also started to plan publicly for compulsory allocation, including rationing and prioritization among industrial users, as well as sharing among member states in the event there is not enough gas to supply everyone.

The stated reason is to accelerate the accumulation of inventories over the remainder of the summer to ensure European countries enter the winter with the highest possible inventories.

In reality, inventories are rising relatively rapidly and are already above the long-term seasonal average in most member states and across the region as a whole.

Inventories across the EU and the United Kingdom (EU28) stood at 751 terawatt-hours (TWh) on July 24 compared with a ten-year seasonal average of 698 TWh.

EU28 stocks were rising at a rate of 5.11 TWh per day in the seven days to July 24 compared with a ten-year seasonal average of 4.61 TWh.

In Germany, the largest stock holder, inventories of 161 TWh were above the long-term average of 145 TWh, and rising at 0.6 TWh per day, compared with a long-term average of 0.72 TWh per day.

On current trends, the European Union as a whole, and Germany in particular, are already likely to enter the winter with above average levels of gas in storage.

The problem is that it will not be enough if pipeline supplies from Russia are cut completely.

EU storage is designed to cope with seasonal swings in consumption not to withstand a war-like strategic blockade.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deutsche Bank Now Modeling German Households Chopping Wood To Keep Warm This Winter

July 15, 2022

Deutsche Bank Now Modeling German Households Chopping Wood To Keep Warm This Winter

Yesterday we reported that just in case the world didn’t have enough things to worry about, it is now also petrified about Europe’s potential “doomsday” on July 22 when Putin will decide the fate of the continent: if he resumes gas flows along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which is currently undergoing ten-day maintenance, things will be back to normal(ish). If not, this is the scenario contemplated by Wall Street strategists: “European stocks plunging 20%. Junk credit spreads widening past 2020 crisis levels. The euro sinking to just 90 cents, before a full-blown recession slams the world’s 2nd biggest economy.”

Then overnight, in a note from Deutsche Bank senior economist Eric Heymann (available to pro subscribers), the largest German lender laid out the three most likely scenarios for what the post-maintenance period could look like. As Heymann writes, “we developed three scenarios on how Russian gas supplies to Germany via Nord Stream 1 as well as the transition point Waidhaus might evolve over the next few months.”

  • Scenario 1: Status quo ante. Here, DB assumes that Russian gas deliveries return to the level we had seen in the weeks before the current maintenance period of Nord Stream 1, i.e. 60% below the level at the end of May.
  • Scenario 2: Balanced on a knife-edge. Here, the bank assumes another halving of Russian gas supplies via both pipelines. That would correspond to only 20% of Russian gas supplies seen until May 2022 (this scenario was validated today as described in “Gazprom Casts Doubt On Reopening Nord Stream Even As Canada Grants Sanctions Waiver For Stranded Turbines“).
  • Scenario 3: This is the downside case: welcome to a winter of gas rationing. In a third scenario DB assumes that Russia completely turns off the gas taps to Germany after the maintenance period. That also includes supplies via Waidhaus over the next few months…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Germany Plans ‘Warm Up Spaces’ in Response to Gas Shortages

July 12, 2022

Germany Plans ‘Warm Up Spaces’ in Response to Gas Shortages

Sports arenas to be used to help people who can’t pay skyrocketing energy bills.

picture alliance via Getty Images

Cities across Germany are planning to use sports arenas and exhibition halls as ‘warm up spaces’ this winter to help freezing citizens who are unable to afford skyrocketing energy costs.

Bild newspaper reveals how the the nation’s Cities and Municipalities Association has urged local authorities to set aside public spaces to help vulnerable citizens in the colder months.

Germany has already seen its gas supply from Russia significantly restricted as a result of its support for sanctions and the war in Ukraine.

“We are currently preparing for all emergency scenarios for autumn and winter,” Jutta Steinruck, the city mayor of Ludwigshafen told Bild, where the Friedrich-Ebert-Halle arena is about to be converted into a warm up hall.

“Nobody can say exactly how dramatic the developments will be,” said Gerd Landsberg, the head of the Cities and Municipalities Association.

Landberg urged local municipalities to create “heat islands” and “warm rooms, where people can stay, even during a very cold winter.”

The western German towns of Neustadt, Frankenthal and Landau are also making similar arrangements, while others are planning to turn off lights outside public buildings as well as deactivating traffic lights at night to save energy.

As we highlighted last week, Germany’s largest residential landlord which owns around 490,000 properties is set to impose energy rationing that will cut heating to tenants at night in response to falling gas imports from Russia.

Germans have also been told to take fewer showers, wear more layers of clothing and avoid washing their clothes and driving their cars as often.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

European LNG Imports Hit Two-Year High As US Flotilla Delivers Much-Needed Supplies

January 11, 2022

European LNG Imports Hit Two-Year High As US Flotilla Delivers Much-Needed Supplies

A flotilla of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US has finally arrived in Europe, increasing LNG imports on the fuel-starved continent to a two-year high. The fresh injection of natural gas is helping to offset declining Russian shipments. Prices of European natural gas fell Monday.

Data compiled by Bloomberg shows LNG gas imports in northwest Europe jumped to their highest levels since December 2019. The supply comes from a flotilla of up to 20 LNG vessels from the US that began their sailings in mid/late December.

Fresh supplies of LNG are helping to ease supply woes but will not solve the energy crisis on the fuel-starved continent this winter because stockpiles are at very low levels for this time of year. News of fresh supplies is temporary relief and has resulted in front-month Dutch gas futures falling as much as 6% to 82.50 euros a megawatt-hour and traded at 88 euros around 0600 ET.

Since mid-December, European gas prices have been halved from about 182 euros to 88 euros today. The downdraft is primarily due to the prospects of the flotilla.

Notably, there is still a significant arbitrage spread between US and EU Nattie prices over and above historical norms…

Here’s our reporting on the new supplies:

“With the peak of winter still ahead, we see a wide range of potential near-term price outcomes and expect elevated volatility to persist,” Morgan Stanley wrote in a commodity note.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Reluctant To Boost Gas Flows As Cold Snap Hits Europe

December 21, 2021

Russia Reluctant To Boost Gas Flows As Cold Snap Hits Europe

Natural gas exports from Russia via the Yamal-Europe pipeline will remain limited at the start of this week as true winter begins and Russia keeps more gas for domestic consumption, with maximum temperatures in Moscow dipping below zero.

Bloomberg reports that after booking limited transit space on the Yamal-Europe pipeline over the weekend, Russia has remained reluctant to boost volumes today, which will likely aggravate the already grave gas supply situation in Europe, which is also facing colder temperatures this week.

According to data from the Regional Booking Platform, bookings for Russian gas flows via the pipeline, which terminates in Germany, stood at 4 percent of its capacity. This compares with an average bookings level of 35 percent of capacity since the start of the month.

Russia has also not booked any capacity on the transit route via Ukraine for today. However, Gazprom has started refilling the gas storage facilities it manages in Europe, although slowly.

Meanwhile, the temperatures in several European countries are expected to fall below zero this week, which will put additional strain on already strained grids, with wind power output much lower than demand requires, and gas in storage depleting fast due to the seasonal peak in demand.

On top of this, France’s EDF had to shut down two nuclear plants after an inspection revealed signs of corrosion on some reactors. These account for a tenth of the country’s electricity output and will add to Europe’s troubles.

The situation is deteriorating fast, and could end in blackouts. Last month, Trafigura’s chief executive Jeremy Weir warned that rolling blackouts were a possibility because of the limited natural gas supplies on the continent.

“We haven’t got enough gas at the moment quite frankly, we’re not storing for the winter period. So hence there’s a real concern that there’s a potential if we have a cold winter that we could have rolling blackouts in Europe,” Weir said.

What To Square Away For The Upcoming Winter

December 19, 2021

What To Square Away For The Upcoming Winter

Extreme winter storms have the capacity to knock a home off the grid for a given amount of time. Have a plan for any situation, and maintain a diverse supply of survival foods so you are ready for anything this upcoming winter.

What To Square Away For The Upcoming Winter

Extreme winter storms have the capacity to knock a home off the grid for a given amount of time. Have a plan for any situation, and maintain a diverse supply of survival foods so you are ready for anything this upcoming winter.

Building an emergency pantry is one of those lifelines that takes time, financial resources, and planning to make it fully functional. Ideally, you will want to store shelf-stable foods that your family normally consumes, as well as find foods that are multi-dynamic and serve many purposes.

So, what does a well-stocked food pantry look like? In a previous article on how to stock a prepper pantry, Tess Pennington wrote, “Over the years, I have made recommendations for the best types of foods to put in your pantry, how to save on emergency food stores by learning how to can and dehydrate your own food sources, as well as providing the best rules to go by when creating an emergency food pantry. Ideally, you want the food you put in those coveted pantry spots to be versatile and serve many uses. I like to start with shelf-stable basics like wheat berries, rice, an assortment of beans, dry milk powder, peanut butter, drink mixes, etc., and then add on to my pantry with home canned and dehydrated foods. This creates layers of different types of short and long-term food stores and gives me more functionality in my pantry…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gazprom Will Halt Gas Flows To Moldova In 48 Hours Over Non-Payment

November 23, 2021

Gazprom Will Halt Gas Flows To Moldova In 48 Hours Over Non-Payment

European natural gas prices could surge as new reports indicate Gazprom will halt all natural gas flows to Moldova, an Eastern European country, in 48 hours over non-payment for its gas consumption. The news follows Germany’s energy regulator, which suspended the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline last week. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to exert pressure on Europe with declining gas flows amid the onset of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The crux of the issue is that Moldova has yet to pay its energy bill to Gazprom. “Today is the scheduled date of payment. Yet, there is no payment,” Sergey Kupriyanov, Gazprom board chairman’s spokesman, said in a statement, according to RT News. He said the company is “extremely disappointed” in Moldova’s failure to fulfill its obligations on its recently extended energy contract.

Gazprom was expecting payment for Moldova’s gas usage on Monday (Nov. 22). This comes after Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, struck a 5-year deal with the gas producer on Nov. 1.

Kupriyanov said Gazprom attempted to set “market gas price” for Moldova but had to then take into account the “difficult economic and financial situation” in the country and Putin’s position. In the deal, he said most of Chisinau’s terms were reached, including a special discounted price.

Moldova was only to pay for its current consumption, the spokesman said, adding that Chisinau is in breach of contract, forcing Gazprom to suspend gas flows. The contract extension comes as Chisinau has mounting unpaid gas bills with Gazprom.

According to RT, before the Nov. 1 deal was signed, “Chisinau was close to introducing a state of emergency in case of failed talks. The tense situation also sparked some allegations that Moscow sought to exert pressure on Chisinau to break up its deal with the EU…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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