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A cold snap is headed for Texas after New Year’s Eve. The state’s grid operator conducted inspections of mandatory winterization efforts at power plants to avoid repeating last winter’s devastating blackouts.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) completed inspections at 300 electric generation units, representing 85% of the megawatt-hours lost during last winter’s storm and 22 transmission station facilities.

ERCOT is “confident that its electric generation fleet and the grid are winterized and ready to provide power,” said Woody Rickerson, Vice President of Grid Planning and Weatherization.

“New regulations require all electric generation and transmission owners to make significant winterization improvements and our inspections confirm they are prepared,” Rickerson said.

The announcement comes as new weather models via Bloomberg show average temperatures across Texas are expected to slide beginning this weekend.

In some cases, the minimum temperature will dive below freezing and could strain ERCOT’s power grid as energy demand would increase.

In terms of heating degree days, energy demand will skyrocket through the first half of January.

ERCOT has already sent out a “freeze warning” email to customers, warning them about the upcoming cold blast.

As you are aware, there is a freeze predicted in this area. We ask that you take the following precautions to help reduce the potential for damage to property as well as personal injury. -ERCOT

For the Lower US 48, meteorologists at private weather forecasting firm BAMWX continue to predict colder weather is set to trend for January.

If colder weather is ahead, natural gas prices could get a lift. Futures linked to Henry Hub show an ascending diagonal support line where support could form.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Major Industrial Accident” Reported At Exxon Refinery In Texas

December 23, 2021

“Major Industrial Accident” Reported At Exxon Refinery In Texas

Gasoline futures rose more than a percent early Thursday morning after an explosion was reported at an Exxon/Mobile refinery in Baytown, Texas.

The Harris County Sheriff’s Office tweeted, “deputies are on the scene of a major industrial accident at 3525 Decker Dr. in Baytown. The Exxon/Mobile plant. Some injuries have been reported.”

A follow-up tweet said, “there have been 4 confirmed injuries, 3 of which were life flighted and 1 was taken to the hospital via ambulance. No fatalities have been reported. There is currently no shelter in place.”

ExxonMobil Baytown Area released a statement that said the “fire” occurred around 0100 local time.

Images of the refinery that produces more than 584,000 barrels of crude oil per day show part of the facility was on fire early Thursday morning.

As a result, gasoline futures in New York surged more than 1.5%.

“Our Industrial Hygiene staff continues air quality monitoring at the site and fence line. Available information shows no adverse impact at this time,” ExxonMobil continued, adding that it was “coordinating with authorities as appropriate.”

US April Oil Production Flat

July 5, 2021

US April Oil Production Flat

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. After the production charts, an analysis of three EIA monthly reports that project future production is provided. The charts below are updated to April 2021 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.

U.S. April production was essentially flat. It decreased by 19 kb/d to 11,169 kb/d from Marchʼs output of 11,188 kb/d. It was also 113 kb/d higher than January’s.

The June STEO report forecasted US April output would be 11,082 kb/d vs the reported actual output for April of 11,169 kb/d, an under estimate of 87 kb/d.

In the onshore lower 48, April production increased by 80 kb/d, red graph. The 99 kb/d difference between the US’ decrease and the On-shore L48’s increase was largely due to the 92 kb/d decrease from the GOM.

Ranking Production from US States

Listed above are the 10 states with the largest US production. These 10 accounted for 80.8% of US production out of a total production of 11,169 kb/d in April 2021.

On a MoM basis, the largest barrel increases came from Colorado, Texas and New Mexico. On a YoY basis, all states except New Mexico and Utah had a lower output than last year. Note also that New Mexico’s output surpassed North Dakota and moved into second place.

Production by State

Texas production increased by 28 kb/d in April to 4,791 kb/d. In the EIA’s June report, March’s output was revised up by 18 kb/d from 4,745 kb/d to 4,763 kb/d.

In April there were close to 194 oil rigs operation in Texas. By the fourth week of June 25, 201 were operating. From the end of April to the week of June 25, Texas added 7 oil rigs. It appears that the rate of adding rigs in Texas has slowed. See Rig chart in Section 4 further down.

April’s New Mexico production increased by 17 kb/d to 1,172 kb/d. April’s output is a new record.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Electric grid operator asks Texans to stop blasting AC as unplanned outages and heat collide

June 18, 2021

Electric grid operator asks Texans to stop blasting AC as unplanned outages and heat collide

The electric power grid manager for most of Texas has issued its first conservation alert of the summer, calling on users to dial back energy consumption to avert an emergency. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

(CNN)The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the organization that operates much of the Lone Star State’s electric grid, asked residents for a second day in a row Tuesday to conserve as much energy as possible until Friday.

The strain on the grid stems from record-high demand for electricity amid increasing summer heat and a higher than usual number of forced outages at power plants, the organization said.

“When ERCOT issued a call for conservation on Monday, Texans responded strongly by reducing electric demand during the late afternoon. ERCOT continues to encourage Texans to conserve power each afternoon during the peak hours of 3 to 7 p.m. through this Friday,” a news release by ERCOT read.

“ERCOT has been leveraging every resource at its disposal, including activating all available generating units to help serve customer demand before calling for conservation. Approximately 1,200 MW of power was regained overnight Monday when some repairs were completed. One MW typically powers around 200 homes on a summer day.”

ERCOT said Monday that energy generator owners have reported about 11,000 MegaWatts of generation are on forced outage for repairs, including about 8,000 MW of thermal energy. That’s significantly higher than on a typical hot summer day, when the range of thermal generation outages is about 3,600 MW, the organization said.

“We will be conducting a thorough analysis with generation owners to determine why so many units are out of service,” said ERCOT Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson. “This is unusual for this early in the summer season.”

Wind output was also expected to be lower than usual on Mounday, but the output was expected to increase as the week moved on, ERCOT said.

While the system’s energy capacity is lower, ERCOT customers have simultaneously been using record amounts of energy to cool their homes. According to the release, ERCOT has set a new June record for electricity demand.

“Based on preliminary data, the new record is 69,943 MW, which exceeds the 2018 June record by approximately 820 MW,” the release said. “Power plant owners continue repairs of unexpected equipment failures, and ERCOT is using all the tools in its toolbox to maintain reliability in the face of potential record-setting electricity demand.”

The National Weather Service of Fort Worth warned of a hot day Tuesday with temperatures forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s. The heat wave is expected to last through Friday.

ERCOT said last month that it anticipated record-breaking electric demand this summer due to hot and dry conditions and economic and population growth in the region. That trend is likely to continue in future years as human-caused climate change drives more extreme heat waves in Texas. A 2020 report from the Texas state climatologist concluded

Blackouts, firestorms, and energy use

June 8, 2021

Blackouts, firestorms, and energy use

Preface. Blackouts are more and more likely in the future from fires, hurricanes, natural gas shortages and more. Below is an account from a friend who had to evacuate due to a wildfire.

Blackouts in the news:

2021. Texas Was Seconds Away From Going Dark for Months.

***

This is a letter from someone I know about his experiences when PG&E cut his power off (and 2.5 million others).

Last Saturday around 2 pm we received notice that our area was under an evacuation warning owing to the huge Kincade fire that erupted on Wednesday evening (which we watched in terror and awe from our front porch). At 6:30 pm the order became mandatory. In the end, nearly 200,000 people, or about a third of the population of Sonoma County, were evacuated.

This was our first experience having to plan and prepare to leave on a moment’s notice. We found refuge with a friend in San Francisco, where we stayed until the order was downgraded to a warning on the following Tuesday. The experience highlighted a number of lessons for us.

First and foremost, do not ever evacuate without taking your dog’s favorite toy with you. This oversight necessitated a trip to a pet store to find the item in question. Having a dog certainly helped us keep focused and calmer, although I know she sensed that we were quite out of sorts for days.

Second, we discovered that fuel disappears quickly. We went out 15 minutes after the initial warning was issued, and the closest gasoline station already had 7 of 8 pumps taped closed. The second station had fuel, but long lines coming in from each direction. Of course, once the power went off, there was no fuel to be had at all.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US March Oil Production Rebounds Strongly From Winter Storm Low

May 30, 2021

US March Oil Production Rebounds Strongly From Winter Storm Low

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. The charts below are updated to March 2021 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.

U.S. March production increased by 1,401 kb/d to 11,184 kb/d from Februaryʼs output of 9,783 kb/d and was also 128 kb/d higher than January’s. The increase was due to the rebound from the severe winter storm that hit the four US southern states, Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana and Oklahoma. Note that February’s output of 9,862 kb/d in the previous report was revised down by 79 kb/d to 9,783 kb/d in the current report.

The May STEO report forecasted US March output would be 10,939 kb/d vs the reported actual output for March of 11,184, an under estimate of 245 kb/d. Note that March output was 57 kb/d higher than January.

In the onshore lower 48, March production increased by 1,298 kb/d, red graph. The 103 kb/d difference between the two was largely due to the 107 kb/d increase from the GOM.

Ranking Production from US States

Listed above are the 10 states with the largest US production. These 10 accounted for (79.8%) of US production out of a total production of 11,184 kb/d in March 2021.

Of these 10 states, Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma had the biggest percentage output increases relative to February. On a YoY basis, all states except New Mexico had a lower output than last year. Note also that New Mexico surpassed North Dakota in output and moved into second place.

Rig additions continued in the US from the August low of 172 to 359 in the last week of May. Over the last month there is a hint of slowing in rig additions in Texas and the Permian.

Frac spreads continue to increase at an average rate of close to 15.1/mth.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ovi Bakken, Gulf of Mexico, Non-OPEC production, Texas, US Oil Production, peak oil barrel,

A Hunger Strike Against Big Oil

May 5, 2021

A Hunger Strike Against Big Oil

Ann Wright reports on Diane Wilson’s stand against channel dredging in mercury-laden Matagorda Bay, Texas.

Diane Wilson in mid April. (Diane Wilson)

Texas shrimper, fisherwoman, author and internationally known environmentalist Diane Wilson on Monday was on Day 27 of her hunger strike to gain national solidarity and publicity to pressure the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to rescind its permit for big oil to dredge a channel in mercury-laden Matagorda Bay, Texas.

The dredged channel would allow massive oil tankers into the bay to take on crude oil that will be exported from the U.S.

“I am risking my life to stop the reckless destruction of my community. Oil and gas export terminals like the project I am fighting pollute our air, water, and climate — only to pad the pockets of fossil fuel CEOs,” said Diane Wilson. “The Biden administration needs to stop the dredging and stop oil and gas exports.”

The Army Corp of Engineers is not commenting.

Expansion of Ship Channel

Wilson is challenging the dredging operation funded by Houston-based oil and gas firm Max Midstream to expand the Matagorda Ship Channel in order to bring massive ships into the oil terminals to increase global oil exports out of Texas. The dredging will stir up mercury contamination in the area around the 3,500-acre Alcoa Superfund Lavaca Bay site, one of the largest polluted areas in the U.S., as well as covering up 700 acres of oyster reefs and increasing salinity in the bay, which would devastate local fisheries. The U.S. government has issued pollution reports over the past 30 years concerning the dangerous levels of mercury contamination from the Alcoa site.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Texas Faces New Power Crisis: Prices Soar 10,000% As ERCOT Urges Power Conservation Amid Grid ‘Emergency’

April 14, 2021

Texas Faces New Power Crisis: Prices Soar 10,000% As ERCOT Urges Power Conservation Amid Grid ‘Emergency’

Texas’ power grid operator, Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which came under immense pressure months ago for mishandling the historic winter storm in mid-February, urged customers Tuesday afternoon to “reduce their electricity use” as a cold front swept through, causing power demand to spike.

ERCOT told customers to please “conserve energy at this time. Consumers and businesses are urged to reduce their electricity use this afternoon and into the evening.”

Texas’ power grid operator also said:

“Due to a combination of high gen outages typical in April & higher-than-forecasted demand caused by a stalled cold front over TX, ERCOT may enter emergency conditions.

With a cold front moving through the Lone Star state some generation units were already down for repair work. Bloomberg reports one spot price for Texas power jumped as much as 10,000% on Tuesday.

In particular, the average spot on-peak electricity at Ercot’s North Hub jumped more than 10,000% to $1,975.96 a megawatt-hour as of 4 p.m, according to grid data compiled by Genscape. Prices are capped at $2,000 a megawatt hour, after regulators suspended the previous $9,000 cap following the energy crisis.

The grid has seen tight supply conditions as below-average temperatures pour into the state this week.

So far, “We do not expect customer outages. Declaring an emergency would allow us to access additional resources,” ERCOT said, although it requested energy conservation.

ERCOT is requesting energy conservation at this time. Consumers and businesses are urged to reduce their electricity use this afternoon and into the evening.

— ERCOT (@ERCOT_ISO) April 13, 2021

The internet was not enthused by ERCOT’s grid warning today:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Texas Freeze Creates Global Plastics Shortage

March 24, 2021

Texas Freeze Creates Global Plastics Shortage

First, it was a demand slump across pretty much every manufacturing industry because of the pandemic. Then a surge in demand for electronics caused a shortage of microchips, which hit the automotive industry particularly hard. Now, the Texas Freeze has caused a global shortage of plastics. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that the cold spell that shut down oil fields and refineries in Texas is still affecting operations, with several petrochemical plants on the Gulf Coast remaining closed a month after the end of the crisis. This creates a shortage of essential raw materials for a range of industries, from car making to medical consumables and even house building.

The WSJ report mentions carmakers Honda and Toyota as two companies that would need to start cutting output because of the plastics shortage, which came on top of an already pressing shortage of microchips. Ford, meanwhile, is cutting shifts because of the chip shortage and building some models only partially. GM, on the other hand, has started building some pickup trucks without a fuel management module because of the shortages, which will affect the fuel economy performance of these cars.

Yet, the automaking industry is just one victim of the abnormal circumstances on the planet and the Gulf Coast. Another is the construction industry. The WSJ reports, citing industry insiders, that following the petrochemical shutdowns, builders are bracing for shortages of everything from siding to insulation.

More than 60 percent of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) production capacity in the United States is still out of operation a month after the Texas Freeze, Bloomberg reported earlier this month….

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why every state is vulnerable to a Texas-style power crisis

March 12, 2021

Why every state is vulnerable to a Texas-style power crisis

“The infrastructure we have built right now really isn’t ready.”

Workers repair a power line in Austin, Texas, on February 18, 2021. — Power outages in Texas after Winter Storm Uri left millions in the dark. Such outages are a growing threat throughout the country.

The blackouts that gripped parts of Texas for days as temperatures dipped to record lows last month were stunning for a state that prides itself on its diverse and abundant energy supplies. Texas is the country’s largest oil producer, largest lignite coal producer, largest natural gas producer, and largest wind energy producer.

Yet despite its bountiful resources, every electricity source — natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar — fell short just as Texans needed to warm up the most.

Now that Texas has thawed out after an icy freeze left more than 4 million people in the cold and dark, heads are rolling.

This week, Texas Public Utility Commissioner Shelly Botkin resigned, leaving just one commissioner of the three-member group remaining. This follows a wave of resignations at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the group that oversees the state’s power grid.

It’s not yet clear how many Texans died amid the cold, but several people died after they lost power, including an 11-year-old boy. Others died from carbon monoxide poisoning as they burned fuel indoors or ran their cars in desperate attempts to stay warm. Millions lost drinking water for days.

The blackouts cost the state economy upward of $130 billion in damages and losses, and some people who did have power saw their bills spike by thousands of dollars. Grid operators say that the situation could actually have been a lot worse, with the system minutes away from a months-long blackout.

Texas politicians have not earned much sympathy from the ordeal. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz derided California’s “failed energy policies” when the Golden State suffered blackouts last year. Gov. Greg Abbott went on television to erroneously link the power outages to the Green New Deal. Other Texas politicos blamed iced-up wind turbines for the electricity shortfall when the majority of the power losses were from natural gas.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The First Texas-Freeze Casualty: Just Energy Implodes, Issues Going Concern Warning

February 22, 2021

The First Texas-Freeze Casualty: Just Energy Implodes, Issues Going Concern Warning

Just Energy’s shares crashed more than 21% in the premarket after the company released a statement about steep losses incurred during the winter storms that swept across Texas last week warning of doubts about remaining a ‘going concern’ (translation: it may not survive).

“The financial impact could change as additional information becomes available,” it said in the statement.

“Accordingly, the financial impact of the Weather Event on the Company once known, could be materially adverse to the Company’s liquidity and its ability to continue as a going concern.”

Just Energy hit a record low ($4.05) in premarket trading since it went public in 2002… and peaked above $600 in 2007.

The retail energy provider specializing in electricity and natural gas commodities, renewable energy options, and carbon offsets revealed that it lost $250 million due to Texas’s latest “weather event”.

“The sustained high prices from February 13, 2021 through February 19, 2021, during which real-time market prices were artificially set at USD $9,000/MWh for much of the week, it is likely that the Weather Event has resulted in a substantial negative financial impact to the Company.”

Based on current information available to the company as of the time of this press release, the company estimates that the financial impact of the Weather Event on the company could be a loss of approximately USD $250 million (approximately CAD $315 million), but the financial impact could change as additional information becomes available to the company,” Just Energy stated.

The company warned the material impact could cause “liquidity” issues and raises doubts it can continue operating. It’s currently talking with top stakeholders regarding the impact of the weather event last week.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Temporary Collapse Of Texas Is Foreshadowing The Total Collapse Of The United States

February 20, 2021

The Temporary Collapse Of Texas Is Foreshadowing The Total Collapse Of The United States

We are getting a very short preview of what will eventually happen to the United States as a whole. America’s infrastructure is aging and crumbling. Our power grids were never intended to support so many people, our water systems are a complete joke, and it has become utterly apparent that we would be completely lost if a major long-term national emergency ever struck. Texas has immense wealth and vast energy resources, but now it is being called a “failed state”. If it can’t even handle a few days of cold weather, what is the rest of America going to look like when things really start to get chaotic in this country?

At this point, it has become clear that the power grid in Texas is in far worse shape than anyone ever imagined. When extremely cold weather hit the state, demand for energy surged dramatically. At the same time, about half of the wind turbines that Texas relies upon froze, and the rest of the system simply could not handle the massive increase in demand.

Millions of Texans were without power for days, and hundreds of thousands are still without power as I write this article.

And now we are learning that Texas was literally just moments away from “a catastrophic failure” that could have resulted in blackouts “for months”…

Texas’ power grid was “seconds and minutes” away from a catastrophic failure that could have left Texans in the dark for months, officials with the entity that operates the grid said Thursday.

As millions of customers throughout the state begin to have power restored after days of massive blackouts, officials with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which operates the power grid that covers most of the state, said Texas was dangerously close to a worst-case scenario: uncontrolled blackouts across the state.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Who’s To Blame For The Texas Power Crisis?

February 19, 2021

Who’s To Blame For The Texas Power Crisis?

Our last report focused on the uniqueness of the Texas wholesale electricity market, ERCOT, and how it was specifically designed to evade federal utility regulation. And as if he were our paid spokesperson, former Texas governor Rick Perry stated publicly that Texans were happy to suffer blackouts and other hardships if it meant evading federal regulatory scrutiny. Whether the good (and shivering) citizens of the Lone Star State agree is another matter. But today, instead of dealing with politics, we’ll take a closer look at ERCOT as a state planning agency.

First the good news. One of the hardest parts of every planning agency’s job is correctly estimating future demand. This is doubly hard in a dynamic, fast growing economy like Texas. Consequently we were surprised at how good their planning estimate was for this winter’s electrical load of about 67,000 megawatts. Because of the blackouts we can’t precisely know what peak electrical demand in Texas would’ve been given the extreme winter demands from home heating and the like. But the shadow estimates published by ERCOT suggested about 72,000 megawatts of peak demand.

In total, ERCOT has the ability to supply electrical capacity of about 80,000 megawatts. This amount of available electric power generation should have been adequate to meet demand this week. Not by a wide margin but adequate. Barely. As an aside we should point out that ERCOT runs “light” in terms of electric system reserve capacity with reserves typically about 8%. This compares with other US grids where targeted reserve margins are about 15%. Lower reserve margins are cheaper but mean less back up for emergencies.

Our first tentative conclusion is that Texas would have withstood this recent snowstorm and polar vortex event in pretty good shape from a grid perspective IF thermal plants were available to meet skyrocketing demand.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Texas Facing A Humanitarian Crisis?

February 17, 2021

Is Texas Facing A Humanitarian Crisis?

Up to 15 million Texans remain without heat and electricity as temperatures across the state are well below freezing. Another round of winter weather is battering parts of the state Wednesday morning, as many Texans have been without electricity since Sunday are desperately scrambling to find shelters. Weather-related deaths have already been reported as one of the nation’s wealthiest states can barely supply electricity to its residents. And some of those residents have written to us to share their painful realities…

…my house is now resembling a refugee camp. yeah these are all my friends but crazy cause they all have young kids…

hence i’m escaping the chaos…

what’s insane is that big swathes of population in surrounding areas are without power and *water supply*

… bottled water flying off shelves & stores bout to run out.

… so much for Green New Deal shit… all our turbines and solar don’t work now in freeze, LOL

i live in an area behind a major hospital so i’m thinking that’s why my grid has been up and running this whole time.

The unprecedented polar vortex split, dumping Arctic air down to the Gulf of Mexico, resulted in frozen wellheads that impeded the flow of natgas to power stations, triggering electric shortages as demand overwhelmed the grid. Considering ERCOT, which manages 90% of the state’s electric load, has a high percentage of electrical generation produced via natgas, power has yet to be restored to millions of folks.

The cascading effect of blackouts and controlled power outages has resulted in some critical infrastructure such as cellular networks and water treatment plants going offline.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

‘Grid Chaos’ Sparks Massive Rolling Blackouts Across Texas

February 15, 2021

‘Grid Chaos’ Sparks Massive Rolling Blackouts Across Texas

Rolling power outages are in effect across the state of Texas as the polar vortex split has poured some of the coldest air ever into the central US. There are nearly 2 million Texan customers without power as of Monday morning.

Texas power grid operator ERCOT warned Sunday of an “energy emergency” and threatened “rotating outages.” By Monday morning (0125 local time), ERCOT began “rotating outages” to “reduce demand on the electric system.” It continued: “Traffic lights and other infrastructure may be temporary without power.”

As of 0700 ET, PowerOutage.US shows 1.834 million customers are without power across the state amid frigid temperatures.

ERCOT officials said outages are expected to last between 15 and 45 minutes. They say blackouts are “necessary to maintain the system’s reliability.” Power demand is expected to remain at record levels through Tuesday as record-low temperatures will stay in the region through the week.

“Every grid operator and every electric company is fighting to restore power right now,” said Bill Magness President and Chief Executive Officer of ERCOT.

Temperatures across Texas and the central US are expected to be well below normal through the end of the week.

ERCOT’s decision to implement rolling power outages comes after we first warned of an imminent grid crisis on Thursday, when we reported that natgas prices across the plains states had soared to never before seen levels as a result of a brutal polar vortex blast.

… which cut off natgas supply amid wellhead freeze-offs, cutting production receipts just when customers’ demand for heating most needed them. By Friday, frigid temperatures caused equipment failures, temporarily shutdowns in at least four natgas plants.

Over the last 24 hours, hundreds of daily records for cold temperatures were broken as Arctic air pushed all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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