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#231. Short and sharp
#231. Short and sharp A SYNOPSIS OF DETERIORATION AND RISK Might we very soon face a major financial crisis, at a scale exceeding that of 2008-09? Are we heading for a global economic slump, or can current problems be explained away in terms of ‘non-recurring events’, such as the war in Ukraine? Do the authorities have […]
Turning The Wealth Pyramid Upside Down
Turning The Wealth Pyramid Upside Down When we look at upside down wealth pyramid at the left, I have a big problem with the picture it promotes. It is clearly based on someone’s opinion of what investments are safe. The one thing it does well is to scream that some investments have a high degree […]
FRA-OIS Explodes: Here Is The Only Chart Powell Is Closely Watching, And Why It Is Soaring
FRA-OIS Explodes: Here Is The Only Chart Powell Is Closely Watching, And Why It Is Soaring Some were quick to mock repo guru and former NY Fed staffer Zoltan Pozsar when he warned that the unexpected western blockade of Russia had the feel of a Lehman weekend, because virtually nobody had any idea what the forced exclusion […]
Climate scientists: Ban solar geoengineering
Climate scientists: Ban solar geoengineering ‘The risks are poorly understood and can never be fully known’ The following open letter was issued by an international coalition of prominent scientists and governance scholars on January 17, 2022. It calls for an international treaty to outlaw attempts to reduce global heating by blocking sunlight from reaching earth. […]
Coming Market Madness Could Take 70 Years to Recover
COMING MARKET MADNESS COULD TAKE 70 YEARS TO RECOVER Cervantes famous classic novel Don Quixote can in simple terms be described as a fight for liberty and freedom against oppression and against the state. This book is from 1605 and considered to be one of the best books ever written. In the midst of market […]
War Drums Are Beating
War Drums Are Beating A RISK NOT DISCUSSED It was around 2017 when I began seeing the ridiculous climate hysteria being pushed not just by dreadlocked physics deniers chaining themselves to trees but at an institutional level. This, I thought to myself, was something very, very dangerous and which — if taken to any greater […]
The Clouds Have Cleared in 2021, and What We Are Seeing Is a Dystopian 2022
The Clouds Have Cleared in 2021, and What We Are Seeing Is a Dystopian 2022 Photo by Javier Quiroga This year was a doozy. Right out of the gate, millionaires were sounding the alarm that the markets were looking overvalued while reducing their risk exposure. In February we got a taste of what could be the […]
Doing 90 MPH on Deadman’s Curve: A Few Thoughts on Risk
Doing 90 MPH on Deadman’s Curve: A Few Thoughts on Risk When the wreck is recovered, witnesses will wonder why they took such heedless, foolish risks. You’re in the back seat wedged between tipsy revelers, the driver is drunk and heading into Deadman’s Curve at 90 miles per hour. Nobody’s worried because the driver has […]
Risk Was Never Low, It Was Only Hidden
Risk Was Never Low, It Was Only Hidden The vast majority of market participants are about as ready for a semi-random “volatility event” as the dinosaurs were for the meteor strike that doomed them to oblivion. Judging by euphoric gambler–oops I mean “investor”–sentiment and measures of volatility, risk of a market drop has been near-zero […]
Former Lehman Trader On “China’s Lehman Moment”
Former Lehman Trader On “China’s Lehman Moment” My name is Larry McDonald, that is the UK cover above. In the years before the failure of Lehman Brothers, I ran a successful distressed credit business at what was the 4th largest investment bank in the U.S. – becoming one of the most consistently profitable traders in […]
These Dangers Loom Over the Fragile U.S. Economy in the Next 12 Months
These Dangers Loom Over the Fragile U.S. Economy in the Next 12 Months Photo by Connor Daylenko The U.S. and most of the world is at the threshold of what I would call a nexus point in history. There are establishment forces at play that seek to impose a permanent authoritarian presence within our nation in […]
Weekly Commentary: Under Fire
Weekly Commentary: Under Fire The week had an ominous feel. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped another seven bps to 1.29% – completely disregarding much stronger-than-expected reports on consumer and producer prices. German bund yields fell another six bps to a three-month low negative 0.35%. Equities were down for the week in Europe, but the notable equities […]
Earth tipping points could destabilize each other in domino effect: Study
Earth tipping points could destabilize each other in domino effect: Study A new risk analysis has found that the tipping points of five of Earth’s subsystems — the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Amazon rainforest — could interact with […]
Don’t Go Picking Up Quarters in Front of a Steamroller
Don’t Go Picking Up Quarters in Front of a Steamroller Photo by Leroy Evans How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly. ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises Winning the lottery sounds like a dream come true, until you understand most people who win end up broke a few years later. (Most don’t invest their money properly to […]
Systemic Risks Abound
Systemic Risks Abound If you wanted to design a system guaranteed to collapse in a putrid heap, you’d make moral hazard ubiquitous and you’d make the system 100% dependent on a hubris-soaked faux savior. For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to soothe the […]
