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June 10 (Reuters) – The power grid operator in the Central United States warned on Friday that problems it may experience keeping the lights on this summer could also occur during the summers of 2023, 2024 and beyond.

The region’s grid operator, Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), has already warned of potential capacity shortfalls and other reliability concerns in parts of its territory this summer.

The northern and central regions are at “increased risk of temporary, controlled outages to preserve the integrity of the bulk electric system,” MISO has said.

MISO operates the grid for some 42 million people in 15 U.S. central states from Minnesota to Louisiana and the Canadian province of Manitoba.

On Friday, MISO released a survey showing it could have a potential capacity deficit of 2.6 gigawatts (GW) during the summer of 2023 depending on market responses over the next year.

One gigawatt can power about a million U.S. homes on average, but as little as 200,000 on a hot summer day.

MISO’s biggest problem is that demand was rising at the same time generation resources have declined due mostly to the retirement of coal and nuclear plants for economic or environmental reasons.

MISO said it may only have 119 GW of power resources available this summer to meet a projected peak demand of 124 GW.

For 2024 and beyond, MISO said “the capacity deficits are projected to widen … due to declining committed capacity and modestly growing demand.”

MISO officials were not immediately available to say what the grid would do to fix this problem.

Sarah Freeman, president of the Organization of MISO States and commissioner with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission, said in a statement: “States stand ready to work with MISO … to maintain reliability and resilience throughout this significant resource transformation.”

China, U.S. lead rise in global debt to record high $305 trillion – IIF

May 20, 2022

China, U.S. lead rise in global debt to record high $305 trillion – IIF

A view of the city skyline in Shanghai, China February 24, 2022. Picture taken February 24, 2022. REUTERS/Aly Song

NEW YORK, May 18 (Reuters) – The world’s two largest economies borrowed the most in the first quarter as global debt rose to a record above $305 trillion, while the overall debt-to-output ratio declined, data from the Institute of International Finance showed on Wednesday.

China’s debt increased by $2.5 trillion over the first quarter and the United States added $1.5 trillion, the data showed, while total debt in the euro zone declined for a third consecutive quarter.

The analysis showed many countries, both emerging and developed, are entering a monetary tightening cycle -led by the U.S. Federal Reserve- with high levels of dollar denominated debt.

“As central banks move ahead with policy tightening to curb inflationary pressures, higher borrowing costs will exacerbate debt vulnerabilities,” the IIF report said.

“The impact could be more severe for those emerging market borrowers that have a less diversified investor base.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has risen some 150 basis points so far this year and earlier this month hit its highest since 2018.

SOVEREIGNS BEWARE

Corporate debt outside banks and government borrowing were the largest sources of the increase in borrowing, with debt outside the financial sector rising above $236 trillion, some $40 trillion higher than two years ago when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Government debt has risen more slowly in the same period, but as borrowing costs rise sovereign balance sheets remain under pressure.

“With government financing needs still running well above the pre-pandemic levels, higher and more volatile commodity prices could force some countries to increase public spending even further to ward off social unrest,” said the IIF.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Gas Prices Soar As Europe And Asia Scramble For LNG

May 9, 2022

US Gas Prices Soar As Europe And Asia Scramble For LNG

U.S. gas prices have surged to the highest level in real terms since the financial crisis in 2008 as strong demand for LNG from buyers in Europe and Asia puts pressure on inventories. Front-month futures for gas delivered to Henry Hub in Louisiana are trading at almost $9 per million British thermal units, up from just over $3 at the same point last year and less than $3 in 2019.

Front-month futures have surged into a record backwardation of almost $4 above futures for delivery one-year from now, as traders anticipate inventories will remain under pressure through the rest of the year.

Working gas stocks in underground storage are 335 billion cubic feet or 18% below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average for 2015-2019.

Inventories have remained low despite a fairly mild winter, with population-weighted heating demand this winter in the Lower 48 states around 7% below the average.

Domestic gas production has recovered to its pre-pandemic peak, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But exports especially in the form of LNG have risen sharply, which is keeping inventories low and putting upward pressure on prices.

In recent months, LNG exports have been equivalent to 10-12% of domestic dry gas production, up from around 4% in early 2019. Exports have become a big enough share of the market they have started to enforce a partial convergence with prices in Europe and Asia.

U.S. gas supplies have tightened as Europe and Asia scramble to buy LNG to refill their own depleted storage after last winter and amid fears about a disruption of gas supplies from Russia.

The rise in prices will enforce maximum fuel-switching among power generators from gas to coal to conserve fuel stocks this summer, with spot gas now uncompetitive against coal except for peak generation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ukraine Grain Strain: Almost 25 Million Tonnes Blocked From Export

May 8, 2022

Ukraine Grain Strain: Almost 25 Million Tonnes Blocked From Export

A massive backlog of grain shipments is piling up in Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tonnes due to ‘infrastructure challenges’ and blocked ports in the Black Sea, including Mariupol, Reuters reports, citing a UN food agency official.’

Ukraine was the fourth-largest exporter of maize (corn) in the 2020/21 season, and the sixth-largest wheat exporter in the world, according to the International Grains Council.

It’s an almost grotesque situation we see at the moment in Ukraine with nearly 25 mln tonnes of grain that could be exported but that cannot leave the country simply because of lack of infrastructure, the blockade of the ports,” said FAO Deputy Director Josef Schmidhuber during a Geneva press briefing via Zoom.

According to Schmidhuber, the full silos could result in storage shortages for this year’s July and August harvests.

“Despite the war the harvest conditions don’t look that dire. That could really mean there’s not enough storage capacity in Ukraine, particularly if there’s no wheat corridor opening up for export from Ukraine.”

He alluded to destroyed grain storage as a result of the Russian invasion, without elaborating.

CNN, however, reports from ‘multiple sources’ that Russian forces have allegedly plundered farm equipment and hundreds of thousands of tonnes of grains from Ukraine, with the Ministry of Defense estimating on Thursday that 400,000 tonnes of grain had been stolen to date.

[And given the source(s), the usual ‘grain of salt’ disclaimer applies as to the extent and accuracy of claims.]

Oleg Nivievskyi at the Kyiv School of Economics told CNN the thefts of farm equipment, such as tractors and harvesters, by Russian forces have been absolutely devastating for Ukrainian farmers.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

India Facing Widespread Blackouts This Summer

April 14, 2022

India Facing Widespread Blackouts This Summer

India faces a persistent shortage of electricity over the next four months as rapid demand growth from air conditioners overwhelms the available generation on the network.

India’s grid reported a record load of 200,570 megawatts on July 7, 2021, at the height of last summer, according to the National Load Despatch Centre of the Power System Operation Corporation (POSOCO).

But since the middle of March, the grid has routinely reported maximum loads above 195,000 MW, including a peak of 199,584 MW on April 8 – less than 0.5% below the record.

In the evening, when there is no solar generation available and supplies are even more stretched, peak loads have hit a new record in recent days.

Exceptionally high loads have arrived far earlier this year, well before the most intense period of summer heat, implying the grid is in trouble.

In a symptom of the struggle to meet demand, the grid’s frequency has faltered since mid-March, dropping persistently below target, with longer and more severe excursions below the safe operating range.

Chronic under-frequency is a sign the grid cannot meet the full demand from customers and makes planned load-shedding or unplanned blackouts much more likely.

India has a frequency target of 50.00 cycles per second (Hertz), with grid controllers tasked with keeping it steady between 49.90 Hz and 50.05 Hz to maintain the network in a safe and reliable condition. Since the middle of March, frequency has averaged just 49.95 Hz and has been below the lower operating threshold more than 23% of the time.

On April 7, the average frequency fell as low as 49.84 Hz and frequency was below the lower threshold for 63% of the day, according to POSOCO data.

Frequency has been below target so often for so long in recent weeks it has sometimes appeared the system is operating according to a much lower informal target.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Food Crisis About To Get Worse After China Says Winter Wheat Condition Could Be Worst In History

March 7, 2022

Food Crisis About To Get Worse After China Says Winter Wheat Condition Could Be Worst In History

The condition of China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history,” the agriculture minister said on Saturday according to Reuters, raising concerns about grain supplies in the world’s biggest wheat consumer. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Chinese regime’s annual political meetings, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian said that heavy rainfall last year delayed the planting of about one-third of the normal wheat acreage.

A survey of the winter wheat crop taken before the start of winter found that the amount of first- and second-grade crop was down by more than 20 percentage points, Tang said.

“Not long ago we went to the grassroots to do a survey and many farming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history,” he said. “This year’s grain production indeed faces huge difficulties.”

As the Epoch Times notes, the minister’s comments underscore concerns about China’s grain supply at the same time as the war between Russia and Ukraine, which together account for about 29% of global wheat exports, has disrupted supplies causing wheat prices to surge to 14-year highs.

However, Tang is confident China can ensure a bumper harvest of summer grain thanks to strong policy and technical support and the improving crop condition for the grain.

Fuelled by the Ukraine crisis, wheat prices in China soared to a record this week on existing domestic supply worries.

Tang’s comments also come as Beijing has refocused on food security, a long-standing priority for the central leadership that has become increasingly prominent in policy since the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Oil Inventories Are Exceptionally Tight: Kemp

February 16, 2022

Global Oil Inventories Are Exceptionally Tight: Kemp

Global petroleum inventories are the tightest for years in a sign the market is overheating, as the global economy recovers rapidly from the coronavirus pandemic and major oil producers refuse to increase output faster.

Commercial inventories held in the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) totalled 2.68 billion barrels at the end of December 2021, down from 3.21 billion in July 2020.

Since peaking after the first wave of coronavirus infections in 2020, inventories have fallen at the fastest rate for decades, and ended last year at the lowest seasonal level since 2013.

OECD commercial inventories ended December roughly 8% below the previous five-year seasonal average, with or without the pandemic year, based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). There is no precedent for such rapid depletion of stocks in recent decades and the EIA estimates stocks have fallen further in January and February (“Short-term energy outlook”, EIA, Feb. 8).

The result has been a surge in both nearby oil futures prices and calendar spreads, reflecting concerns about the availability of sufficient oil. Front-month Brent futures prices have climbed roughly 25% in the last two months, as the latest wave of coronavirus infections has ebbed and had limited impact on global economic growth or oil consumption.

Brent’s six-month calendar spread, which is closely correlated with stock levels, has surged into a backwardation of more than $8 per barrel this week, within the 99th percentile for all trading days since 1990.

The current combination of rapidly escalating front-month futures prices and backwardation is the most bullish since at least 1993.

Overheating

Low and falling inventories are a sign of excess demand and inadequate supply, putting continuous upward pressure on prices.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Just-in-time gives way to “buy everything you can” as U.S. supply disruptions persist

January 31, 2022

Just-in-time gives way to “buy everything you can” as U.S. supply disruptions persist

Container trucks , ships and cranes are shown at the Port of Long Beach as supply chain problem continue from Long Beach, California, U.S. November 22, 2021. REUTERS/Mike Blake

Jan 28 (Reuters) – Stephen Bullock eight months ago gave up on the idea of buying raw materials and parts only shortly before they were needed on his assembly line.

Instead, he told his purchasing manager to “just buy everything you can,” and they could store the excess, said Bullock, chief executive of Power Curbers Companies, a maker of heavy equipment used to build concrete sidewalks and other infrastructure projects.

Roughly two years into a pandemic that has snarled supply chains across the globe, U.S. companies are scrambling not just to produce enough to feed current demand – but to also refill inventory shelves. That buildup was key to the fourth quarter’s hefty 6.9% annualized growth in gross domestic product, with inventory investment contributing 4.9 percentage points, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

Spending shifted during the pandemic from services to goods, a boom that has strained supply chains and emptied warehouses. Excluding inventories, GDP grew at a more modest 1.9% rate in the latest period.

This boom in demand, coupled with shortages, has fueled a wave of inflation that increased at a pace last year not seen in nearly 40 years. This set the stage for the Federal Reserve to now look towards raising interest rates in March.

Bullock, whose company is based in Salisbury, North Carolina, said supply chain problems have continued to grow worse in recent months – not better.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Reuters Data Scientist Fired After Nuking BLM Narrative, Exposing ‘Significant Left-Wing Bias’ In Reporting

January 6, 2022

Reuters Data Scientist Fired After Nuking BLM Narrative, Exposing ‘Significant Left-Wing Bias’ In Reporting

On Tuesday, we republished a column from a journalist who resigned from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation because the network exhibited such extreme left-wing bias and propaganda that she couldn’t be a part of it any longer.

Today, bring you the story of Zac Kriegman, a former Reuters data scientist who was fired after performing a statistical analysis which refuted claims by Black Lives Matter, and spoke out against the company’s culture of “diversity and inclusion” which unquestioningly celebrated the BLM narrative.

As journalist Chris F. Rufo writes in City Journal: “Driven by what he called a “moral obligation” to speak out, Kriegman refused to celebrate unquestioningly the BLM narrative and his company’s “diversity and inclusion” programming; to the contrary, he argued that Reuters was exhibiting significant left-wing bias in the newsroom and that the ongoing BLM protests, riots, and calls to “defund the police” would wreak havoc on minority communities.”

Week after week, Kriegman felt increasingly disillusioned by the Thomson Reuters line. Finally, on the first Tuesday in May 2021, he posted a long, data-intensive critique of BLM’s and his company’s hypocrisy. He was sent to Human Resources and Diversity & Inclusion for the chance to reform his thoughts. –

He refused—so they fired him. -City Journal

Kriegman, who has a bachelors in economics from Michigan, a JD from Harvard, and “years of experience with high-tech startups, a white-shoe law firm, and an econometrics research consultancy,” spent six years at Thomson Reuters, where he rose through the ranks to spearhead the company’s efforts on AI, machine learning, and advanced software engineering. By the time he was fired, he was the Director of Data Science, and lead a team which was in the process of implementing deep learning throughout the corporation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF, World Bank & 10 Countries Held Alarming “Simulation” Of Global Financial System Collapse

December 22, 2021

IMF, World Bank & 10 Countries Held Alarming “Simulation” Of Global Financial System Collapse

Earlier this month Reuters produced a report which didn’t receive nearly enough attention among the American public – its contents would be sure to alarm most people concerned with the outbreak of yet more ‘global catastrophes’. At the very least it’s curious timing: amid the recent pandemic induced disruption in global supply chains, powerful nations and banking institutions decided to get together to run a global economic collapse scenario.

The report described that Israel led a “10-country simulation of a major cyber attack on the global financial system in an attempt to increase cooperation that could help to minimize any potential damage to financial markets and banks.” It was centered on a catastrophic scenario in which “hackers were 10 steps ahead of us,” according to one official who took part.

Collapse, illustrative image via Reuters

Dubbed “Collective Strength”, the exercise was held in Jerusalem (after being moved from the original proposed location of Dubai) and included the participation also of the United States, UK, United Arab Emirates, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Thailand. Officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Bank of International Settlements were also involved.

The financial-geopolitical gaming simulation was set amid a scenario where sensitive data was leaked on the Dark Web, which combined with “fake news” reports going viral across societies, resulting in the collapse of global markets and an ensuing run on banks. Further, the simulation envisioned a series of devastating hacks targeting global foreign exchange systems, which also disrupted transactions between importers and exporters, according to Reuters.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Wheat soars to 9-year peak on supply concerns, strong demand

November 23, 2021

Wheat soars to 9-year peak on supply concerns, strong demand

CHICAGO, Nov 22 (Reuters) – U.S. wheat futures rallied to their highest in nearly nine years on Monday as ill-timed rains in Australia and rising Russian wheat prices stoked concerns about tightening supplies among the world’s top exporters.

Corn and soybeans followed wheat higher, with additional support from a waning U.S. harvest and strong domestic demand from ethanol makers and soy processors.

“The demand continues to equal or outstrip the supply in the short term,” said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities.

“The wheat market’s leading the charge. It was hit with weather that is too wet in Australia and a little too dry in the U.S. Plains, shipping issues in southwest Canada and issues around export taxes in Russia,” Roose said.

Chicago Board of Trade March soft red winter wheat was up 23-1/4 cents at $8.57-1/2 a bushel after peaking at $8.59-1/2, the highest for a most-active contract since December 2012. All futures months hit new contract highs.

K.C. hard red winter wheat futures also posted across-the-board contract highs, with the March contract ending 28 cents higher at $8.66-1/2 a bushel.

Wheat prices in Russia rose for a fifth straight week last week on strong demand. Shipments from the world’s largest exporter are down 34% this season due to a smaller crop and rising export taxes.

Heavy rains, meanwhile stalled harvesting in Australia and threatened crop quality, while flooding in western Canada has disrupted exports when global demand for wheat has risen.

Robust domestic demand for corn and soybeans amid strong margins at ethanol plants and soy crush facilities underpinned futures prices.

CBOT December corn gained 6 cents to $5.76-3/4 a bushel, while January soybeans added 11 cents to settle at $12.74-1/4 a bushel.

Zambia state power firm says nation in countrywide blackout

November 8, 2021

Zambia state power firm says nation in countrywide blackout

LUSAKA, Nov 6 (Reuters) – Zambia was experiencing a nationwide power blackout on Saturday after an unidentified problem, the state utility said, adding that it was working to restore electricity supply.

“We have lost power countrywide resulting from a fault, which is yet to be determined. The company is restarting the main sources of electricity to create stability on the system,” state-owned Zesco spokesman John Kunda said.

Kunda said the power supply was likely to be restored in six to eight hours.

Copper-rich Zambia suffered another major power outage affecting most parts of the country last month after a problem at an important hydropower station. read more

Twin peaks: Whether it’s supply or demand, oil era heads for crunch time

October 31, 2021

Twin peaks: Whether it’s supply or demand, oil era heads for crunch time

A worker collects a crude oil sample at an oil well operated by Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA in Morichal, Venezuela, July 28, 2011. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

Oct 25 (Reuters) – Energy transition and peak demand predictions have spooked investors in oil, putting the prospect of peak production sooner than anticipated accompanied by wild price spikes.

Key climate talks are set to begin at the end of this month in Glasgow, Scotland to tackle global warming under the 2015 Paris Agreement, with fossil fuel in policy-makers’ crosshairs.

But as it stands now, mobility curbs which hollowed out both spending on upstream oil projects and oil end use may already be set to permanently rein in the growth of both supply and demand.

“On current trends, global oil supply is likely to peak even earlier than demand,” the research department of bank Morgan Stanley said in a note this week.

“The planet puts boundaries on the amount of carbon that can safely be emitted. Therefore, oil consumption needs to peak. However, this is such a well-telegraphed prospect that it has solicited its own counter-response already: low investment.”

Global oil demand and declines in supply by scenario

Still, with most oil producers and watchdogs putting the peak to the world’s thirst for oil at least several years away, demand is already veering back toward pre-pandemic levels. read more

The mismatch between demand for oil and other polluting fossil fuels roaring back to normal and output having lagged has helped contribute to an energy crunch in Europe and Asia, with crude prices soaring to multi-year highs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Britain faces ‘massacre’ of 20 more bust energy suppliers, Scottish Power says

October 22, 2021

Britain faces ‘massacre’ of 20 more bust energy suppliers, Scottish Power says

The sun rises behind electricity pylons near Chester, northern England October 24, 2011. REUTERS/Phil Noble/File Photo

LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) – Britain’s energy market faces an absolute massacre that could force at least 20 suppliers into bankruptcy in the next month alone unless the government reviews the energy price cap, Scottish Power Chief Executive Keith Anderson said on Thursday.

Natural gas prices have spiked this year as economies reopened from COVID-19 lockdowns and high demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia pushed down supplies to Europe, sending shockwaves through industries reliant on power.

Around 13 British suppliers have collapsed in recent months, forcing more than 2 million customers so far to switch providers. Before the crisis, there were more than 50 small- and mid-sized independent energy suppliers in Britain with around a 30% share of the market.

“There is a significant risk you could see the market shrink all the way back to five to six companies,” Anderson told the Financial Times.

Scottish Power, owned by Iberdrola (IBE.MC), is Britain’s fifth largest energy supplier with around 8% of the domestic gas supply market, according to data from regulator Ofgem.

“We expect, probably in the next month, at least another 20 suppliers will end up going bankrupt,” Anderson told Sky. “We are now going to start seeing some relatively well-run, good, commercially sound businesses going bankrupt because they just can’t pass the cost of the product through to customers.”

The soaring natural gas prices have strained Britain’s retail energy markets to breaking point, putting into question 30 years of energy deregulation which began in 1989 under then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

Anderson cast Britain’s energy market as facing months of tumult that could shrink the market all the way back to just five or six companies unless the price cap, set by Ofgem, was reviewed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil settles up 1.5%; hits multi-year highs on surging demand

October 12, 2021

Oil settles up 1.5%; hits multi-year highs on surging demand

Oil prices surge, adding to global energy crunch

BENGALURU, Oct 11 (Reuters) – Oil prices jumped on Monday to the highest levels in years, fuelled by rebounding global demand that has contributed to power and gas shortages in key economies like China.

Brent crude rose $1.26, or 1.5%, to settle at $83.65 a barrel. The session high was $84.60, its highest since October 2018.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.17, or 1.5%, to settle at $80.52, after touching its highest since late 2014 at $82.18.

The pace of economic recovery from the pandemic has supercharged energy demand at a time when oil output has slowed due to cutbacks from producing nations during the pandemic, focus on dividends by oil companies and pressure on governments to transition to cleaner energy.

A U.S. administration official on Monday said the White House stands by its calls for oil-producing countries to “do more” and they are closely monitoring the cost of oil and gasoline. read more

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together known as OPEC+, have held back from boosting supply even as prices have risen. In July, the group agreed to boost output by 400,000 bpd to restore the 5.8 million bpd in supply curbs left from its 2020 deal to cut production in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. read more

Pipelines run to Enbridge Inc.'s crude oil storage tanks at their tank farm in Cushing, Oklahoma, March 24, 2016. REUTERS/Nick Oxford — Pipelines run to Enbridge Inc.’s crude oil storage tanks at their tank farm in Cushing, Oklahoma, March 24, 2016. REUTERS/Nick Oxford

Power prices have surged to record highs in recent weeks, driven by widespread energy shortages in Asia, Europe and the United States. Soaring natural gas prices have encouraged power generators to switch to oil. read more

“Everything is very much focused on the lack of supply returning at a time when demand appears to be roaring back,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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