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Stable Electricity: A Long Slow Goodbye

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Electricity shortages are  for the UK and Europe, and then later for the rest of the overdeveloped world as well. Blackouts will become common, and you will get power only for a couple of hours a day — just like in countries with a less favorable economic position. Most likely not this summer though, maybe not next year. Perhaps not even the year after. Losing a stable electric grid is a slow grind and will go in tandem with the long decline of fossil fuels.

Although most people, who got used to receiving a stable supply of power from the magic wall socket, don’t realize this as an immediate danger, the stability of the grid depends on the availability of fossil fuel (mainly natural gas) power plants ready to fill in the gaps during peak consumption hours. Contrary to the magical thinking pouring in on all channels, we are lacking the infrastructure to switch to a grid powered by ‘renewable’ electricity alone. As  has pointed out:

The U.S. consumes about 4000 terawatt-hours of electricity every year, or 563 times the existing battery storage capacity…

An entire year of battery production from the multi-billion Gigafactory could only store a mere three minutes’ worth of annual U.S. electric demand…

Storing only 24 hours’ worth of U.S. electricity generation in lithium batteries would thus cost $11.9 trillion, take up 345 square miles and weigh 74 million tonnes

…and would take 10 years for 48 Nevada sized Gigafactories to produce the battery cells… For storing one, single day worth of electricity. One day, not months needed to cover the supply and demand gap in the winter. All this would come at an enormous ecological as well as resource cost (lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and their resulting toxic waste streams). Not to mention the fact that we simply neither have these resources at hand nor the mining capacity to get them (if would find them).

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Weakening Electric Grid: Less Reliable, More Fragile

The Weakening Electric Grid: Less Reliable, More Fragile

As more and more irritated customers become certain that power shortages and blackouts have become more common, the electric grid’s problems receive more attention. They should. Shortages and blackouts have in fact become much more common than they once were. The electric power grid has become increasingly fragile and considerably less reliable. This is especially troubling because, at the same time, Washington and several states plan to burden it further with electric cars and an increase in the use of electric appliances. In part, the power problem reflects the increased reliance on inherently intermittent wind and solar sources. But this straightforward fact of life is only part of the story behind the electric grid’s problems. Matters are much more complicated.

Evidence of failure is irrefutable and has sometimes appeared with great drama. A 2021 cold snap in Texas, for example, led to widespread blackouts and the death of 250 people. California has for years regularly imposed rolling brownouts and blackouts on utility customers. Just this past Christmas season, unusually cold weather across the country prompted utilities from Massachusetts and New York across the Midwest and into the south to beg their customers to turn down their thermostats and delay their use of appliances. Millions lost power for days in North Carolina and Tennessee. Downed power lines caused some of the problems, but in many cases electric utilities simply had to cut off power to some in order to a total crash of their systems. The incidence of prolonged blackouts for all reasons has doubled since 2013.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

America’s Largest Power Grid Faces Worsening Reliability Risks

America’s Largest Power Grid Faces Worsening Reliability Risks

A new report reveals the US’ largest power grid is shuttering power generation units faster than new supply can be brought online, threatening electric reliability in 13 states that stretch from Illinois to New Jersey with over 65 million customers.

PJM Interconnection published a new study Friday that examines the alarming trend of state and federal decarbonization policies across the grid that “present increasing reliability risks during the transition, due to a potential timing mismatch between resource retirements, load growth and the pace of new generation entry.”

Here are the key highlights of the report:

  • The growth rate of electricity demand is likely to continue to increase from electrification coupled with the proliferation of high-demand data centers in the region.
  • Thermal generators are retiring at a rapid pace due to government and private sector policies as well as economics.
  • Retirements are at risk of outpacing the construction of new resources, due to a combination of industry forces, including siting and supply chain, whose long-term impacts are not fully known.
  • PJM’s interconnection queue is composed primarily of intermittent and limited-duration resources. Given the operating characteristics of these resources, we need multiple megawatts of these resources to replace 1 MW of thermal generation.

The report warned:

For the first time in recent history, PJM could face decreasing reserve margins should these trends continue.”

A significant problem with the ‘green transition’ is adding renewable power, such as solar and wind, are unreliable forms of power generation. Combining this with rapidly retiring fossil fuel power generation units will reduce generating capacity by about 21% through 2030. The report pointed out that the current pace of adding new power generation wouldn’t compensate for the retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired generation amid soaring demand.

Here’s the full report:

What’s clear is PJM’s grid is becoming less dependable (read: here & here) and will probably worsen in the transition to a decarbonized future.

Pakistan on the Brink: What the Collapse of the Nuclear-Armed Regional Power Could Mean for the World

Pakistan on the Brink: What the Collapse of the Nuclear-Armed Regional Power Could Mean for the World

A series of disasters — including catastrophic flooding, political paralysis, exploding inflation, and a resurgent terror threat — risk sending the global player into full-blown crisis.

Vendors sell fruit under lights lit by batteries in Lahore, Pakistan, on Monday, Jan. 23, 2023. Millions of people across Pakistans major cities were plunged into a blackout prompted by a power grid failure, dealing another blow to the nation already reeling from surging energy costs. Photographer: Betsy Joles/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Vendors sell fruit under battery-powered lights during a blackout due to a power grid failure in Lahore, Pakistan, on Jan. 23, 2023. Photo: Betsy Joles/Bloomberg via Getty Images

THE LAST YEAR has brought Pakistan to the brink. A series of rolling disasters — including catastrophic flooding, political paralysis, exploding inflation, and a resurgent terror threat — now risk sending a key, if troubled, global player into full-blown crisis. If the worst comes to pass, as some experts warn, the catastrophe unfolding in Pakistan will have consequences far beyond its borders.

“This is a country of 220 million people, with nuclear weapons and serious internal conflicts and divisions,” said Uzair Younus, the director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. “The world didn’t like the outflows of refugees and weapons that came from countries like Syria and Libya. In comparison, Pakistan is magnitudes larger and more consequential.”

“If the economy remains in a moribund state, and there are shortages of goods and energy leading to a political crisis on the streets of major cities, that would also allow the Pakistani Taliban and other terrorist groups to begin hitting at the government more directly,” said Younus, who is also vice president of the Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm. “We could see a significant weakening of the state and its capacity to impose order.”

It is hard to overstate the difficulty of Pakistan’s current situation. An unfortunate string of recent events combined with chronic mismanagement has created a potentially mortal threat to Pakistan’s political system.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Austrian Defense Minister Warns Europeans Are Unprepared For Days-Long Blackouts

Austrian Defense Minister Warns Europeans Are Unprepared For Days-Long Blackouts

Leaving one third of citizens unable to “supply themselves.”

SOPA Images via Getty Images

The Austrian defense minister has warned that Europeans could face blackouts that go on for days, leaving one–third of citizens unable to “supply themselves.”

Klaudia Tanner made the comments during an interview with German news outlet Die Welt.

“The question is not whether it (the blackout) will come, but when it will come,” said Tanner, blaming the war in Ukraine.

“For Putin, hacking attacks on Western power supplies are a tool of hybrid warfare. We must not pretend that this is just a theory. We must be prepared for blackouts in Austria and Europe,” she added.

Austrian armed forces are set to establish 100 self-sufficient barracks by 2025 that are capable of sustaining themselves for a minimum of two weeks if energy supplies are seriously disrupted.

Tanner spoke to how unprepared Europeans were for crippling elongated blackouts by warning, “one-third of citizens would not be able to supply themselves on the fourth day of a blackout at the latest.”

While Vladimir Putin remains the convenient scapegoat, others have pointed to Europe’s overdependence on ‘green energy’ and its shutting down of traditional coal-fired and nuclear plants as one of the primary reasons for increasing the risk of blackouts.

In Germany for example, the country only has three remaining operational nuclear power plants, with MPs even having to vote to extend their life span into 2023 after previous plans to shut them down.

As we previously highlighted, Germans buying up electric heaters in anticipation of the gas supply being cut off is threatening to cause huge spikes in demand that could lead to widespread blackouts.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Lviv & Kiev Plunged Into Darkness After ‘Massive’ Missile Attack; Ukrainian S-300 Lands In Belarus

Lviv & Kiev Plunged Into Darkness After ‘Massive’ Missile Attack; Ukrainian S-300 Lands In Belarus

Ukraine has been hit with a “massive” attack of over 120 missiles across the country Thursday, its military and presidency’s office said. “December 29. Massive missiles attack… The enemy is attacking Ukraine from various directions with air and sea-based cruise missiles from strategic aircraft and ships,” Ukraine’s air force said in a public statement.

It marks the largest barrage of missiles since there was weekend talk from both sides of mutual ‘openness’ in getting to the negotiating table. Ukrainian leadership floated the proposal of UN-brokered talks by the end of February, but its insistence on Russian officials facing a war crimes tribunal first was seen in Moscow as not serious and a non-starter.

Social media footage showing missile contrails over Kiev.

Regardless, at this point, Thursday’s fresh aerial attack effectively slams the door shut on the possibility of talks. According to a blistering statement from Zelensky aide Mykhaylo Podolyak, the missiles were launched:

…by the “evil Russian world” to destroy critical infrastructure & kill civilians en masse. We’re waiting for further proposals from “peacekeepers” about “peaceful settlement”, “security guarantees for Russian Federation” & undesirability of provocations.

Thus with the obvious sarcasm Zelensky’s office has clearly signaled talks at this point are all but an impossibility from its point of view.

The Ukrainian military said missiles reached as far West as Lviv, parts of which were left without electricity Thursday morning. “Ninety percent of the city is without electricity,” Lviv’s mayor said in a social media post. “We are waiting for more information from energy experts. Trams and trolleybuses are not running in the city.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Eastern US Power Grid Declares Emergency, Power Outages Top One Million, Flight Disruptions Persist Amid Storm Chaos

Eastern US Power Grid Declares Emergency, Power Outages Top One Million, Flight Disruptions Persist Amid Storm Chaos

The powerful winter storm that battered a large swath of the eastern half of the US has left behind an Arctic chill Saturday morning. A regional power grid with 65 million customers in 13 states and the District of Columbia has declared a rare emergency, over a million people have no power, air travel remains disrupted, and reports of highway accidents are some of the most trending topics this morning.

Let’s begin with PJM Interconnection, a regional power grid that stretches from Illinois to New Jersey, which declared a Stage 2 emergency late Friday and asked customers to conserve electricity due to the rising risk of grid instability.

“PJM is asking consumers to reduce their use of electricity, if health permits, between the hours of 4 a.m. on December 24, 2022, and 10 a.m. on December 25, 2022,” PJM wrote in a press release.

PJM’s request for customers to reduce power comes as the grid manager is trying to prevent a Stage 3 emergency, which would result in rolling blackouts across the 13 states and the District of Columbia.

“Demand soared more than 9 gigawatts above forecasts Friday evening — much faster and higher than anticipated. That’s the equivalent of about 9 million homes just popping up on the grid on a typical day,” Bloomberg said.

PJM spokeswoman Susan Buehler told Bloomberg that Stage 2 emergency would “certainly be enough” to avert blackouts across the regional grid because the Arctic blast is only temporary.

In the Carolinas, Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress, like several other utilities, have asked customers to conserve power due to energy shortfalls.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Americans Face Elevated Winter Power Outage Risks From Tight Fuel Supplies, Faltering Grid: Report

Americans Face Elevated Winter Power Outage Risks From Tight Fuel Supplies, Faltering Grid: Report

As the snow flies and temperatures plummet, regulatory agencies and analysts alike warn that residents in multiple U.S. states are at an elevated risk of dangerous winter blackouts.

States such as Texas and North Carolina, and also the Great Lakes and New England regions are in the highest risk category, according to a report from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC).

Meanwhile, a “large portion” of the U.S. power grid is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions, the agency concluded in the same analysis.

Although climate change advocates claim that severe weather events are the primary culprit, energy insiders say tight fuel supplies and an outdated electric grid play a critical role in potential blackouts.

Epoch Times Photo
People take shelter at Gallery Furniture store after winter weather caused electricity blackouts in Houston, on Feb.18, 2021. (Go Nakamura/Getty Images)

Conservative estimates this year put the cost of critical power grid and infrastructure upgrades at $4 trillion, with the use of supplemental nuclear power; the price tag jumps another $500 million without nuclear energy.

The Biden administration approved a $13 billion stopgap measure on Nov. 18 to “modernize and expand” the power grid. However, people in the energy industry say it will take months or years for U.S. residents to see the difference.

Falling Behind

“There is a significant gap to upgrade aging grid infrastructure to meet net-zero mandates and maintain reliability, and we are running out of time,” analyst Kim Getgen told The Epoch Times.

Getgen is the CEO and founder of Innovation Force, which tackles complex issues such as America’s energy crisis. She says the Biden administration’s infrastructure investment is a good start, but it’s exactly that, just a start.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Escobar: Electric Wars

Escobar: Electric Wars

Footfalls echo in the memory
Down the passage which we did not take
Towards the door we never opened
Into the rose-garden. My words echo
Thus, in your mind.
But to what purpose
Disturbing the dust on a bowl of rose-leaves
I do not know.

T.S. Eliot, Burnt Norton

Spare a thought to the Polish farmer snapping pics of a missile wreckage – later indicated to belong to a Ukrainian S-300. So a Polish farmer, his footfalls echoing in our collective memory, may have saved the world from WWIII – unleashed via a tawdry plot concocted by Anglo-American “intelligence”.

Such tawdriness was compounded by a ridiculous cover-up: the Ukrainians were firing on Russian missiles from a direction that they could not possibly be coming from. That is: Poland. And then the U.S. Secretary of Defense, weapons peddler Lloyd “Raytheon” Austin, sentenced Russia was to blame anyway, because his Kiev vassals were shooting at Russian missiles that should not have been in the air (and they were not).

Call it the Pentagon elevating bald lying into a rather shabby art.

The Anglo-American purpose of this racket was to generate a “world crisis” against Russia. It’s been exposed – this time. That does not mean the usual suspects won’t try it again. Soon.

The main reason is panic. Collective West intel sees how Moscow is finally mobilizing their army – ready to hit the ground next month – while knocking out Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure as a form of Chinese torture.

Those February days of sending only 100,000 troops – and having the DPR and LPR militias plus Wagner commandos and Kadyrov’s Chechens do most of the heavy lifting – are long gone. Overall, Russians and Russophones were facing hordes of Ukrainian military – perhaps as many as 1 million. The “miracle” of it all is that Russians did quite well.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

A quarter of America could experience LONG BLACKOUTS this winter due to energy supply problems

Image: A quarter of America could experience LONG BLACKOUTS this winter due to energy supply problems

(Natural News) Large parts of North America could face long blackouts and other energy emergencies this winter as supplies of natural gas and coal begin to tighten.

According to the latest seasonal assessment of the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), a large portion of the North American [bulk-power system] is “at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions.”

The regional grids with the largest risk of experiencing supply shortfalls this winter are in Texas, New England, the Carolinas and the central system stretching from the Great Lakes region down to Louisiana.

The NERC’s report noted that supply shortfalls, higher peak-demand projections, weaknesses in natural gas infrastructure and inadequate weatherization upgrades for generators are contributing to the heightened risk of power outages.

The risk would be further worsened by severe weather putting stress on these already weakened grids by causing demand for electricity to soar while supplies of energy coming from natural gas, coal and backup fuels like oil remain low. (Related: In the middle of a global energy crisis, Joe Biden promises to SHUT DOWN COAL PLANTS all across America.)

“The trend is we see more areas at risk, we see more retirements of critical generation, fuel challenges and we are doing everything we can,” said NERC Director of Reliability Assessment John Moura. “These challenges don’t kind of appear out of nowhere.”

Electricity bills to go up in winter

NERC’s warning for the coming winter notes that around a quarter of American households will also see their already high utility bills soar even higher this winter as demand for power shoots up.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Much Of Ukrainian Capital Without Power & Water After New Russian Airstrikes

Much Of Ukrainian Capital Without Power & Water After New Russian Airstrikes

Much of the Ukrainian capital of Kiev is without electricity or water, after the latest round of major Russian airstrikes on Monday. The Russian military announced ‘successful’ strikes on multiple of the country’s vital infrastructure facilities.

“The Russian Armed Forces continued to launch strikes with high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons against Ukrainian military and energy facilities,” the Defense Ministry said. “The goals of the strikes were successful. All assigned objects were hit.” Meanwhile, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed direct hits on 18 sites – most of which were connected to the nation’s energy supply. These ramped up attacks have created a growing sense of panic with temperatures plunging and winter approaching.

Getty Images

“Missiles and drones hit 10 regions, where 18 sites were damaged, most of them energy-related,” Shmyhal stated on Telegram. “Hundreds of settlements in seven regions of Ukraine were cut off.” Facilities in Cherkasy and Kirovohrad also came under attack. Ukraine’s military said it intercepted projectiles over the Lviv region, which spared this western part of the country from damage.

The Washington Post noted there are “power outages continuing in the Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions,” and others. The Post listed some of the below regions impacted by large-scale power outages and water supply disruptions:

  • Kyiv region: Russian strikes damaged buildings, and rescuers are searching for victims, the regional police said. Attacks left 80 percent of the capital without water and are likely to cause sustained power outages, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
  • Kharkiv: Two strikes hit critical infrastructure facilities in the eastern city, causing problems with the water supply and affecting the public transit network, the mayor said.
  • Zaporizhzhia region: An infrastructure facility was struck by rockets, the local governor said, prompting warnings from officials in the southern region that energy supplies there could also be affected.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

UK Grid Operator Offers Households Money To Stop Using Appliances Amid Energy Crisis

UK Grid Operator Offers Households Money To Stop Using Appliances Amid Energy Crisis

The National Grid warned Britons of winter power blackouts earlier this month if it can’t import enough natural gas and electricity from other parts of Europe. According to Daily Mail, the grid operator developed a new scheme to prevent the worst-case scenario of power outages by offering households equipped with smart meters to turn off appliances during peak demand times.

National Grid’s scheme pays households up to £20 per day if they don’t use energy-intensive appliances, such as electric ovens and stoves, washing machines, tumble dryers, televisions, microwaves, and even video game consoles, between 4 pm and 7 pm or 2 pm until 9 pm over the next five months.

They will be advised to use washing machines, tumble dryers, ovens, dishwashers and other appliances outside those periods so boffins can measure how much energy is saved on the grid when it is at its busiest. If the entire proposed £3 per kwh rebate if passed on to Britons by their supplier, over five months this could mean around £240 off their bills in total. –Daily Mail 

The grid operator hopes the ‘demand flexibility service’ will save 2GW of electricity — equivalent to powering 1 million homes — during peak demand hours to thwart supply and demand imbalances that could result in power rationing.

“But the scheme relies on users having a controversial smart meter, a device which automatically transmits your energy usage to your provider,” Daily Mail said. 

Remember in the US, over the summer, when households in Colorado could not control their own smart thermostats after the local power company digitally seized them to prevent people from increasing cooling demand during a heatwave. There are risks when using anything smart.

This winter could be reminiscent of power outages experienced in the 1970s across the UK if power generators cannot get enough NatGas to operate.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Grid renewal generates billion-dollar shock as costs of energy transition become clear

A woman looks up at a large transmission tower.
Consumers are looking at a major increase in spending on power networks across Australia.(ABC News: Hugh Hogan)

Australian consumers have been told to brace for big hikes in their power bills after a watchdog revealed the true costs of overhauling the grid to deal with the renewable energy transition.

In a decision heralded as a landmark, Western Australia’s economic regulator this month said the state’s major electricity network provider should be allowed to spend $9 billion over the next five years – $1 billion more than it requested.

Network— or poles and wires — costs typically account for up to half the average electricity bill, with the rest made up of costs associated with generation, retailing and environmental policies.

Economic Regulation Authority chairman Steve Edwell said the draft decision reflected the urgent need for upgrades to Western Power’s network to ensure it could handle the surge of renewable energy flooding onto the system.

But Mr Edwell, who was also the inaugural chairman of the Australian Energy Regulator, said it was also a sign of what was to come around the country, where poles-and-wires companies face a race against time and a huge increase in costs to make sure they can keep up with the energy transition.

“The period between now and 2027 is pivotal,” Mr Edwell said.

“We’ve got to get it right and we’ve got to make sure the grid is in as good a shape as it can be to enable this transformation to continue at pace.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Get ready for blackouts from London to LA, as the global energy crisis overwhelms grids and sends energy prices skyrocketing

Get ready for blackouts from London to LA, as the global energy crisis overwhelms grids and sends energy prices skyrocketing

Illuminated Buildings By River Against Sky During Sunset
Part of Manhattan without power, seen from East River Houses. 
Jonathan Percy/EyeEm/Getty Images
  • Climate change and soaring energy prices could make widespread blackouts more common, even in wealthy nations.
  • Californians narrowly averted statewide blackouts, and Britons impacted by the war in Ukraine will soon pay nearly double for electricity.
  • As energy costs soar higher, a new age of rolling outages and grid instability looms large.

Stock up on batteries, candles, and non-perishable snacks. Blackouts are coming.

For the first time in decades, the western world is preparing for widespread and rolling energy shortages. The US, UK, and EU have all been squeezed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, soaring costs for electricity and fuel, and record-breaking heat waves. While fall is just around the corner, the worst of the energy strain is likely still to come.

Even wealthy nations won’t be spared, at least without broad broad policy change and private-sector overhauls. Add in the accompanying economic costs and extreme health risks, and you have a very difficult situation.

In California, it will materialize as outage warnings and restrictions on your air conditioning. Then in coming years, Texans, Illinoisans, and Missourians will join the suffering of their west coast peers amid sweltering heat and rolling blackouts.

And across Europe and the UK, residents not used to heat waves will either face skyrocketing energy bills or dangerously hot summers — a situation made worse by their reliance on Russian gas, the flow of which has been essentially cut off entirely.

In the US, climate change risks decades of ‘extreme danger’

Amid record-high temperatures on the west coast Tuesday afternoon, California’s grid operator ISO urged residents to limit their energy use and cautioned that rolling blackouts could arrive.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Blackouts Imminent” – 75,000 Powerless As Record California Power Usage Sparks ‘Demand Response Event’

“Blackouts Imminent” – 75,000 Powerless As Record California Power Usage Sparks ‘Demand Response Event’

Update (2030ET): As was expected earlier, California power usage surged to a record high this afternoon raising the emergency status of the state’s electrical system to the highest possible level amid a blistering heat wave, which means rolling blackouts are imminent.

This triggered a “demand response event”…

And CA ISO is warning of more “blackouts imminent”.

“This is going to be so dicey,” Michael Wara, director of Stanford University’s climate and energy policy program, said earlier in the day.

“There’s a gap for two hours in the evening right now between available supply and projected demand.”

This farce for one of the most-taxed states comes just four days after President Biden’s Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm praised the state’s green energy policies.

Granholm said that California was leading the nation in green energy development and praised its ability to shape national energy policy, according to an interview conducted by Fox 11 Los Angeles.

“I love the fact that California is unabashedly bold about (green) energy policy,” Granholm stated, calling the state as a green “leader” for the rest of the country.

“California’s boldness has … shaped our willingness in the federal government to move further and faster,” she said of California’s green energy policies.

California’s energy policy has currently left 75,000 Californians without power already…

And the state’s largest power company, PG&E Corp., said in a statement that it had notified about 525,000 homes and businesses that they could lose power for up to two hours.

So this is what the rest of America can look forward to?

*  *  *

Update (1700ET): As we warned about earlier, Califiornians are apparently not heeding officials’ warnings that they should sacrifice their comfort for the sake of whatever business or social-engineering plan is the new thing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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