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There Is No Normal
There Is No Normal
The wheel of time rolls forward, never retracing its path, but because it is a wheel, and we are riding in it, a persistent illusion persuades us that the landscape is recognizably the same, and that our doings within the regular turning of the seasons seem comfortably normal. There is no normal.
There is for us, at this moment in history, an especially harsh turning (so Strauss and Howe would say) as our journey takes the exit ramp out of the high energy era into the next reality of a long emergency. The human hive-mind senses that something is different, but at the same moment we’re unable to imagine changing all our exquisitely tuned arrangements — especially the thinking class in charge of all that, self-enchanted with pixeled fantasies. The dissonance over this is driving America crazy.
The wheel hit a deep pothole in 2008 turning onto the off-ramp and has been wobbling badly ever since. 2008 was a warning that going through the motions isn’t enough to sustain a sense of purpose, either nationally or for individuals trying to keep their lives together ever more desperately. The cultural memory of the confident years, when we seemed to know what we were doing, and where we were going, dogs us and mocks us.
The young adults feel all that most acutely. The pain prompts them to want to deconstruct that memory. “No, it didn’t happen that way,” they are saying. All those stories about the founding of this society — of those Great Men with their powdered hair-doos writing the national charter, and the remarkable experience of the past 200-odd years — are wrong! There was nothing wonderful about it. The whole thing was a swindle!
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1177 BC – The Collapse of Society System-Wide
1177 BC – The Collapse of Society System-Wide
QUESTION: I do not believe you have ever commented on Eric Cline’s book 1177BC, the year civilization collapsed. Do you think this is likely what we face or is this different?
WL
ANSWER: There were about eight civilizations that all collapsed with the exception of Egypt post-1250 BC. It was caused by a major shift in climate that led to droughts which resulted in the widespread famine that inspired migrations/invasions. This event of 1177BC was the Bronze Age equivalent to the fall of Rome, for they both were followed by a Dark Age.
Many have attributed this collapse of the Bronze Age to the Sea Peoples, which were most likely northern Mediterranean mass migrants due to the climate getting colder in Europe. Cline has put together a nice assembly of sources, but he missed the climate change. He assumed there was a migration southward. However, we can see the first dip to cold came about 1,800 years ago. We can see that the all-time high temperature was about 3,300 years ago.
The collapse of the Bronze Age was mostly complete by about 1100-1000 BC. Our computer has identified a 1720-year cycle beginning in the Dark Ages with the fall of Rome in 476 AD when the last pretend Emperor reigned (Romulus Augustus (575-476AD)). Our model highlighted the cycle between the Dark Ages of 1720 years which brings us to 1244 BC — right on target for the beginning of the collapse of civilization.
How Civilization Collapses
1) Collapse in centralized government
2) The rich flee and economic growth declines
3) The economy implodes without investment
4) Birth rates decline with population
5) People migrate and abandon urbanization
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Cheap Money Not Going to Work Anymore – Charles Nenner (#1)
Cheap Money Not Going to Work Anymore – Charles Nenner (#1)
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says forget what the mainstream financial channels are saying about more Fed easy money policies pushing the markets higher. Nenner explains, “The clever institutions I work with were selling all the time when the S&P was around 3,000, and the small investor and public were buying, buying and buying. The clever money was so happy then . . . . The small investor buys and all the time they (clever money) get a chance to sell, sell and sell until they are finished selling. Then, suddenly something happens. Then the small investor who holds the cash and he’s in a crisis, and here we go down. I always stress to the small investor, understand how this game works. Day before yesterday, the Dow was down 1,000 (inter-day). I heard one person say maybe you should sell. It’s always buy, buy, buy. They don’t do anybody any favors because there are so many losses. I never hear CNBC say sell, sell, sell. So, it’s a crooked game.”
What does he say to people waiting for the Fed to drive markets back up with easy money? Nenner says, “We are finished with the cheap money. It’s not going to work anymore. That’s what the big investors understand. Even if we have 0% rates, it’s not going to keep this economy going. They cannot keep it going anymore.”
Last time Nenner was on USAWatchdog.com, he said “gold was going up” and “interest rates were going to continue to fall.” He was correct and says those two trends are going to continue. Nenner says, “We are in a new bull market in gold, and the price is headed to at least $2,500 per ounce. . . .
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The Next 8.6-Year Wave will be Inflationary
The Next 8.6-Year Wave will be Inflationary
All the real science is warning that there is a reasonable chance that we are headed into a much colder period ahead. This will have an impact on food prices and out computer models have been warning that the next wave of the Economic Confidence Model should be an inflationary wave. Even a new study from nature.com said: “The recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the grand solar maximum may be at an end.”
The next 8.6-year wave beginning in January should produce a collapse in confidence in governments which will result in a shift from Public to Private assets, but then on top of this, we see a shortage in agricultural markets adding to the inflationary wave coming. Then add the Monetary Crisis and Sovereign Debt Crisis cycles and we end up with some very interesting impacts during the next wave.
Chaos of Weather Record Heat Wave Coming – Fraud of Linear Predictions
Chaos of Weather Record Heat Wave Coming – Fraud of Linear Predictions
This weekend the forecasts are calling for a blistering, dangerous heat wave which is poised to scorch the southeastern U.S. over the Memorial Day weekend. I warned that our computer was showing a sharp increase in volatility in the weather. The winters would spike to new record lows and then the summers would spike to scorching highs. Once again, this is not my personal opinion. If you simply input the data this is what comes up – patterns.
The pro-Global Warming crowd love to send me hate-mail arguing I am not a meteorologist. I reply, neither is Al Gore – the father of Global Warming nonsense. There is far more hidden order to weather and collecting data since only 1850, manipulating it to pretend there is a linear trend and then claim the world will end in 12 years like AOC, begs a lot of question. Why do we need social programs? Stop all taxes including Social Security and let everyone enjoy life while they have it. Kids should drop out of school and enjoy life rather than get degrees they will never use. Why investigate Trump if there will be no presidency in 12 years? Nobody really believes stopping air traffic and driving cars will save the world in 12 years.
The linear analysis of weather used by the Global Warming crowd is complete nonsense and it threatens our way of life along with our future. During the 1950s, Edward N. Lorenz (1917-2008) observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather, yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. Lorenz became the father of Chaos Theory. He was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory.
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The Great Fossil Cycle and US: Story of a Family
The Great Fossil Cycle and US: Story of a Family
Last week, I published a post on how the economic decline of Italy led me to move to a smaller house, abandoning the mansion that my parents had built during better times. Complementing that post, I thought I could repropose a post I had published in 2017, reproduced here with some minor modifications. You can find more data about the story of the Bardi family on the “Chimeras” blog.
My great-great grandfather, Ferdinando Bardi. The story of the branch of the Bardi family to which I belong is inextricably linked to the great world cycle of the fossil fuels. (this painting was made by Ferdinando’s son, Antonio)
There was a time, long ago, when the Bardis of Florence were rich and powerful, but that branch of the family disappeared with the end of the Renaissance. The most remote ancestors of mine that I can track were living during the early 19th century and they were all poor, probably very poor. But their life was to change with the great fossil revolution that had started in England in the 18th century. The consequences were to spill over to Italy in the centuries that followed.
My great-great grandfather Ferdinando (born in 1822) lived in an age when coal was just starting to become commonplace and people would still use whale oil to light up their homes. He was a soldier in the infantry of the Grand-Duke of Tuscany and then of the King of Italy, when Tuscany merged into the newly formed Kingdom of Italy, in 1861. The family lore says that Ferdinando fought with Garibaldi in Southern Italy, but there is no trace of him in the records as a volunteer of Garibaldi’s army. He may have fought there with the regular army, though.
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Still Snowing in the Heart of America – The Longer Winter & Shorter Summer Cycle
Still Snowing in the Heart of America – The Longer Winter & Shorter Summer Cycle
COMMENT: Well you said this winter would be long and the summer shorter. It is still snowing here in the heart of America. It looks like your computer is correct again. Instead of funding research for billion dollars to pretend there is global warming, they should just subscribe to Socrates. Would save a heap of money.
RG
REPLY: Of course you are right. However, the hand out billion grants so they can get studies to justify raising taxes to bring in $100 billion. They are not interested in the actual reliable forecast. There is no juice in that for them. They want more revenue. Unfortunately, if this summer is also short and winter returns rapidly in the fall, buy some electric-underwear. We are in for colder periods ahead into 2024.
Why Has Everything Turned Sour? Is it the Press? Or is the Press Part of the Cycle?
Why Has Everything Turned Sour? Is it the Press? Or is the Press Part of the Cycle?
QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,
I´d like your opinion on this,
During 7 Decades in which our lives got better, longer, richer, safer, healthier, better educated, more peaceful and more stimulating. Even World poverty has decreased in a rate never seen before, still, news coverage got increasingly negative
What explanation could there be for this? Is it excessive competition for attention as media sources multiply or an excessive any deeper reasons? I compare it to Markets, seems to be similar like trading on news, which is impossible because when the news is the worst, usually its the low and when everything and everyone is optimistic its the high.
regards
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ANSWER: Coming out of World War II, society really advanced in many ways from technology to medicine. This is the part of the societal cycle that is best to live in. Then what happens is corruption. The news becomes corrupt in sync with politics. I believe this becomes the case because news becomes institutionalized as it is owned by big firms who then direct the news to slant to their personal benefit. This is a funny skit on British News. It is so true here in the States as well. The Democrats love CNN and the Republicans love Fox. The news gravitates to a political slant and is no longer about news – it is always about selling more ads and pushing their propaganda like some religion handing out flowers in airports.
Yellow journalism was created by the battle between Pulitzer and Hearst. They created the Spanish American War to sell papers. Pulitzer’s name was worthless. To rehabilitate it he donated money to create the Pulitzer Prize for good journalism, which he never practiced.
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Al Gore’s Global Warming Deliberate Fraud to Increase Governmental Power
Al Gore’s Global Warming Deliberate Fraud to Increase Governmental Power
There is a serious question that no one wants to address. How did Al Gore create the global warming scare and earn hundreds of millions of dollars in the process? Before Al Gore, science was worried deeply about what we are experiencing today — global cooling. On April 28, 1975, Newsweek magazine published an article in which they sounded the alarm bell and proposed solutions to deliberately melt the ice caps:
“Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting thearcticc ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing variables of climate uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies.”
This sounds very similar to today’s proposed solution of putting particles in the atmosphere to deflect the sunlight to reduce global warming. Indeed, TIME magazine’s January 31, 1977, cover featured the cover story, “The Big Freeze.” They reported that scientists were predicting that Earth’s average temperature could drop by 20 degrees fahrenheit. Their cited cause was, of course, that humans created global cooling. Then suddenly the climate cycles shifted and it began to warm up.
There was this core group of people who seemed to enjoy all the attention they were gathering by predicting the end of civilization caused by humans. As the temperatures began to warm, suddenly they had to switch the dire forecasts from global cooling caused by humans to global warming caused by humans.
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The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast
The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have studied you Economic Confidence Model and found it to be extremely accurate in forecasting the business cycle. When I showed it to my professor here at ——— he responded that itis impossible to forecast the business cycle. He would not even engage in a conversation about it. Why are they so intimidated by your work?
Thank you
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ANSWER: What you have to understand is that IF it is possible to forecast the business cycle, then that means politics have to change. The entire system is based upon the proposition of vote for me and I will reduce unemployment and bring world peace unless I do not like the people. If you listen to Larry Summers, he states that if you could forecast the business cycle, that would be bad because it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. He also states that the economy is far too complex, like weather, with way too many moving components that make it impossible to forecast. That means the door is open to manipulate the economy, as he suggested with negative interest rates. When that failed, he then discovered there was the zero interest boundary where people would withdraw their cash from banks and defeat his negative interest tool. He has thus advocated eliminating physical paper money to allow his negative interest rate idea to then work — so he maintains. He ignores, of course, the entire pension fund system.
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Climate Change & Commodities
Climate Change & Commodities
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I love the fact that you look at everything from a pure cyclical perspective. Al Gore who started this whole mess was not a climatologist. He was a politician. You are 100% correct that people will believe what they want to believe. There is no talking to one of this idiots. When there is a food shortage, they will be the first to advocate taking food from those who did prepare. Did wheat rise in value during the Dust Bowl because of the decline in supply? They don’t have wheat charts that go back that far on ____ system.
WP
ANSWER: You cannot forecast the future of anything in isolation. I only look at the cycles. The computer correlates absolutely everything including the weather. The correlation models show that we are heading into a colder period. This is when crops fail and the ground freezes as far down as two feet, which makes winter crops impossible. We are also heading into a solar minimum and that is when there are far more volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. All I can say is that it appears that when the ECM turns, the next wave will be back to an inflationary run and we should also see a rise in commodity prices. We have two major trends behind that: 1) weather, and 2) fiscal mismanagement resulting in currency value changes.
The Dust Bowl Rally in wheat was about 245% advance 420 to 1452. What also came into play, interestingly enough, was the devaluation of the dollar in 1934 from $20.67 for one ounce of gold to $35. That was effectively a near 70% devaluation of the dollar. We are approaching our Monetary Crisis Cycle, which will again mark the decline in purchasing power of world currencies. Just maybe we will see a very similar convergence of trends that took place during the Dust Bowl era.Categories:Agriculture, Climate
Tags:Climate Change, Dust Bowl, Global Warming
Governments Are Sucking in Assets like a Black Hole
Governments Are Sucking in Assets like a Black Hole
QUESTION: Hello Sir,
I am French and have been reading you for many years (I already read you while you published papers while you were very unfairly imprisoned).
I signed up for Socrates on 6th January and must thank you warmly for opening my eyes to the real state of the global economy and its cycles.
Unfortunately, I live in France and taxes weigh heavily on us. Unemployment is preponderant.
I do not think our President E.Macron knows exactly what he is doing by reforming our economy in his own way…
My question please:
You explained that the next crisis would be a debt crisis and that banks and the economy would be severely heckled.
So, I really think about quickly withdrawing my assets (about 50,000 euros) from the bank and I wonder if converting them into foreign currency and keeping them in a safe in my house would not be a good idea …
If the euro is devalued or disappears as I fear, would not it be smart to convert them as soon as possible into Swiss francs? Indeed, their economy seems stable and it is really a country apart, bordering on France. (Of course, I also thought about owning dollars and yen (although the yen inspires me less confidence)
Thanking you for everything you do for us,
Sincerely,
F.C
ANSWER: Dollars are probably the best because the USA does not cancel currency as they do in Europe. Dollars from 1860s are still legal tender today. You might want to open an account in the USA, which ironically is not part of the tax reporting schemes. Therefore, you can have an account in the USA with no problem for probably the next 3 years. Governments are becoming like a black hole. They are sucking up all the money to sustain their existence.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Panic Cycles v Waterfall Events
Panic Cycles v Waterfall Events
COMMENT: Hi There,
I suggest you do an article on the terminology you use.For example I noted that on your commentary on centamin Egypt you use the term waterfall pattern. You also you use the term panic cycle.An article on these words and their meaning would be helpful.
Thanks
S
REPLY: We do have terminology is the Glossary on this site. The Waterfall Event is a term I coined to describe what I discovered in the study of the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. This differs from a Panic Cycle which reflects just a short-term increase in volatility, which can exceed the previous session high and penetrate the previous session low or make a big move in one direction. They do not imply the destruction of the system being observed or an individual market.
I have encountered the Waterfall Events such as the collapse of Venice to the 1931 Sovereign DebtCrisis where the foreign government bonds listed on the New York Stock Exchange simple defaulted and went to zero. Thus, the Waterfall is a sharp collapse that will unfold in a market with a decline of generally greater than 50%.
Why central banks cannot really Manage Anything
QUESTION: Marty you recently said that “the entire problem of lowering interest rates to ‘stimulate’ the economy demonstrates that central banks cannot really manage anything.” Is this statement really true?
BG
ANSWER: Absolutely. There is a basic presumption in all human activity that somehow we possess the power to do anything be it end Global Warming or managing the economy. Yet neither has ever been accomplished. We assume that we MUST do something even if there is nothing we can actually do to reverse the trend. It is like what I just wrote about the Plunge Protection Team. Do you realize that every empire, nation, and city-state at some point realizes the end is near, yet they cannot prevent their own demise any more than we can prevent our own death.
“The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle – is a sign of the times. Not much more than a decade ago, in what now seems a more innocent age, the ‘New Economics’ had become orthodoxy. Its basic tenet, repeated in similar words in speech after speech, in article after article, was described by one of its leaders as ‘the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment.’
Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle clearly stated the theory of managing the economy with Keynesian tools failed. When he tried sending interest rates cascading higher into 1981, he really altered the economy forever. There was a capo on interest rates known as the Usury Laws. On April 1st, 1980, the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 became effective.
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Climate Change & the Blame Game has been going on Since the 1890s
COMMENT: I really get annoyed by people who say well it has been warm here so what happens elsewhere is irrelevant. They are idiots and cannot see the whole and just want to blame humans for everything. I can see how our situation is hopeless when it comes to climate change.
All the best
JS
ANSWER: Very true. I got one email saying even though the death toll in Wales is double that of the previous year from extreme cold, it was warmer here in Canada so you are just wrong about everything. Such people are unable to divorce themselves from their bias. We have a serious climate change unfolding that cyclically is on time. Ever since 1895, the media has alternated reporting between global cooling and warming scares and many times they have even been overlapping. Here are accounts from the press reporting both global cooling and warming between 1955 and 1961. From 1895 until the 1930s the media peddled a coming ice age. From the late 1920s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950s until the 1970s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.
Then we have the diehard Global Warming crowd who refuse to ever consider that just maybe they may be wrong and are doing exactly the same thing I encountered when doing research on the Great Depression. Back then, the claimed that the DUST BOWL permanently destroyed the “Middle West” and that all the soil blew away so there would NEVER AGAIN be farming in America. ALL the government “expert advice” blamed the catastrophe on mechanized agriculture because tractors had been in use for only a couple of decades.
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