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Has the Global Economy Finally Exhausted its Good Luck?
Has the Global Economy Finally Exhausted its Good Luck? All of these guarantees and redundancies are as illusory as the “unsinkable” technologies of the Titanic. The past three decades of global growth are rarely attributed to luck: it’s all the result of our brilliant fiscal, monetary and trade policies. Those in positions of wealth and power […]
Coronavirus and the “Unsinkable” Titanic Analogy
Coronavirus and the “Unsinkable” Titanic Analogy Unthinkable doesn’t mean unsinkable. As we all know, the “unsinkable” Titanic suffered a glancing collision with an iceberg on the night of April 14, 1912. A half-hour after the iceberg had opened six of the ship’s 16 watertight compartments, it was not at all apparent that the mighty vessel had […]
Could the Coronavirus Epidemic Be the Tipping Point in the Supply Chain Leaving China?
Could the Coronavirus Epidemic Be the Tipping Point in the Supply Chain Leaving China? Everyone expecting a quick resolution to the epidemic and a rapid return to pre-epidemic conditions would be well-served by looking beyond first-order effects. While the media naturally focuses on the immediate effects of the coronavirus epidemic, the possible second-order effects receive little attention: first […]
Some Practical Questions about the Coronavirus Epidemic
Some Practical Questions about the Coronavirus Epidemic Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases. Like everyone else, I’ve been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven’t found any information about the […]
VIDEO: The Fed’s Evil Juggernaut
VIDEO: The Fed’s Evil Juggernaut Don’t let it crush your future Juggernaut: (n) massive inexorable force, campaign, movement, or object that crushes whatever is in its path The US Federal Reserve is once again force-feeding liquidity into the system. At its fastest rate ever. The result? Record high stock prices whose valuations defy all logic. What’s wrong with […]
Is This “The Top”?
Is This “The Top”? Parabolic moves end when the confidence that the parabolic move can’t end becomes the consensus. The consensus seems to be that the stock market is on its way to much higher levels, and soon. The near-term targets for the S&P 500 (SPX, currently around 3,235) range from 3,500 to 4,000, with longer-term […]
Welcome to the Era of Intensifying Chaos and New Weapons of Conflict
Welcome to the Era of Intensifying Chaos and New Weapons of Conflict Geopolitics has moved from a slow-moving, relatively predictable chess match to rapidly evolving 3-D chess in which the rules keep changing in unpredictable ways. A declining standard of living in the developed world, declining growth for the developed world and geopolitical jockeying for […]
Skyrocketing Costs Will Pop All the Bubbles
Skyrocketing Costs Will Pop All the Bubbles The reckoning is coming, and everyone who counted on “eternal growth of borrowing” to stave off the reckoning is in for a big surprise. We’ve used a simple trick to keep the status quo from imploding for the past 11 years: borrow whatever it takes to keep paying […]
A “Market” That Needs $1 Trillion in Panic-Money-Printing by the Fed to Stave Off Implosion Is Not a Market
A “Market” That Needs $1 Trillion in Panic-Money-Printing by the Fed to Stave Off Implosion Is Not a Market It was all fun and games enriching the super-wealthy but now the karmic cost of the Fed’s manipulation and propaganda is about to come due. A “market” that needs $1 trillion in panic-money-printing by the Fed […]
Why “This Sucker Is Going Down”
Why “This Sucker Is Going Down” Once the contagion starts spreading, loose money won’t put the fires out. As the nation’s political and economic leaders struggled to contain the 2008 financial meltdown, President George W. Bush famously summed the situation up: “If money doesn’t loosen up, this sucker will go down. “Eleven years into the loose money recovery, this […]
Costs Are Spiraling Out of Control
Costs Are Spiraling Out of Control And how do we pay for these spiraling out of control costs? By borrowing more, of course. If we had to choose one “big picture” reason why the vast majority of households are losing ground, it would be: the costs of essentials are spiraling out of control. I’ve often […]
Crunchtime: When Events Outrun Plan B
Crunchtime: When Events Outrun Plan B Not only will events outrun Plan B, they’ll also outrun Plans C and D. We all know what Plan B is: our pre-planned response to the emergence of risk. Plan B is for risks that can be anticipated, regular but unpredictable events such tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc. In the human sphere, risks that […]
Political and Social Conflict Is Accelerating: Here’s Why
Political and Social Conflict Is Accelerating: Here’s Why All the status quo “fixes” only hasten the collapse of the status quo. That economic, social and political conflict is accelerating is self-evident. What’s open to debate are the core drivers of conflict / disorder /unraveling. Here’s the core self-reinforcing dynamic in my view: 1. The status quo […]
Political and Social Conflict Is Accelerating: Here’s Why
Political and Social Conflict Is Accelerating: Here’s Why All the status quo “fixes” only hasten the collapse of the status quo. That economic, social and political conflict is accelerating is self-evident. What’s open to debate are the core drivers of conflict / disorder /unraveling. Here’s the core self-reinforcing dynamic in my view: 1. The status quo […]
If Not-QE Is QE, then is Not-a-Blowoff-Top a Blowoff Top?
If Not-QE Is QE, then is Not-a-Blowoff-Top a Blowoff Top? Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets? When is “Not-QE” QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE. We can constructively recall the story […]
