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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Is This “The Top”?

Is This “The Top”?

Parabolic moves end when the confidence that the parabolic move can’t end becomes the consensus.

The consensus seems to be that the stock market is on its way to much higher levels, and soon. The near-term targets for the S&P 500 (SPX, currently around 3,235) range from 3,500 to 4,000, with longer-term targets reaching “the sky’s the limit.”

The consensus reasoning goes like this:— Central banks can print a lot more money– Stocks rise when central banks print more money.

The history of the 2009-2019 era strongly supports this simple cause-effect, and so just about everyone is on the same side of the boat, the “don’t fight the Fed” side of ever-higher stock multiples and ever-higher prices.

Simply put: sales and profits no longer matter, the only thing that matters is whether central banks are printing more money. And since we all know they’ll have to print more money to keep the flying pig (the stock market) aloft, then it follows as night follows day that stocks will rise essentially forever.

As soon as the consensus has settled complacently on one side of the boat, contrarians take notice as history has a perverse habit of foiling any overwhelmingly complacent consensus.

The contrarian asks: what if this is “The Top”? Not just the top of the current rally, but The Top of the Bull Market that ignited in March 2009? Impossible, say the Bulls; there’s cash on the sidelines, Uber/Lyft drivers aren’t yet touting obscure stocks, i.e. “everybody” is not yet in the market, central banks haven’t even warmed up their digital printing presses, corporations are flush with cash/credit to continue their decade-long gorging on stock buy-backs and the global economy is back on track for another decade or three of tepid “growth.”

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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