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Joseph Tainter on the Dynamics of the Collapse of Civilization

December 5, 2021

Joseph Tainter on the Dynamics of the Collapse of Civilization

Are You Ready for Collapse?

December 2, 2021

Are You Ready for Collapse?

MIT analyzed it and KPMG updated it: economic collapse is nigh.

Economy, global economy, economic crash, economic collapse, economy crash, economics, MIT, KPMG, Peter Isackson, world economy

© Skorzewiak / Shutterstock

In 2019, Pierre Charbonnier penned an article for the French journal Revue du Crieur on the emerging trend known as collapsology. “Theories about the imminent collapse of industrial civilization are in vogue,” he writes in an article titled, “The Splendor and Squalor of Collapsology.”

A year before COVID-19 changed humanity’s view of the world and of its future, Charbonnier attempted to assess the merits of collapsology theory, focusing on the motivation of its promoters. He accurately identifies the marketplace for an increasingly popular genre of literary production, pointing out that “fear is an eminently political emotion, and the production of doomsday scenarios activates our belief systems, our attitudes toward the future, and our sense of good and evil on a very deep level.” These are clearly recipes for producing best-sellers.

In other words, it makes good business sense to predict catastrophic global collapse. Charbonnier accuses collapsologists of hoping to “reinstate” the “fervor and submission” associated with “millinarianist warnings” from the historical past. He calls the contributors a “community of believers,” but nevertheless distinguishes these fanatics from serious anthropologists such as Jared Diamond or philosophers such as Walter Benjamin, reasonable and reasoning thinkers who describe in scientific terms the process through which civilizations decline.Clearly, Charbonnier doesn’t believe a collapse is imminent, which doesn’t necessarily mean that he adheres to Steven Pinker’s style of optimism. Charbonnier wrote his article in 2019, offering it as his contribution to a debate that had come to life in French intellectual circles at that time. Following a never-ending pandemic, would he make the same judgment today?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Humans Are Doomed to Go Extinct

December 2, 2021

Humans Are Doomed to Go Extinct

Habitat degradation, low genetic variation and declining fertility are setting Homo sapiens up for collapse 

Humans Are Doomed to Go Extinct

Credit: Jordan Lye/Getty Images

Cast your mind back, if you will, to 1965, when Tom Lehrer recorded his live album That Was the Year That Was. Lehrer prefaced a song called “So Long Mom (A Song for World War III)” by saying that “if there’s going to be any songs coming out of World War III, we’d better start writing them now.” Another preoccupation of the 1960s, apart from nuclear annihilation, was overpopulation. Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich’s book The Population Bomb was published in 1968, a year when the rate of world population growth was more than 2 percent—the highest in recorded history.

Half a century on, the threat of nuclear annihilation has lost its imminence. As for overpopulation, more than twice as many people live on the earth now as in 1968, and they do so (in very broad-brush terms) in greater comfort and affluence than anyone suspected. Although the population is still increasing, the rate of increase has halved since 1968. Current population predictions vary. But the general consensus is that it’ll top out sometime midcentury and start to fall sharply. As soon as 2100, the global population size could be less than it is now. In most countries—including poorer ones—the birth rate is now well below the death rate. In some countries, the population will soon be half the current value. People are now becoming worried about underpopulation.

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Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh XXXIV

November 28, 2021

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh XXXIV

Athens, Greece (1984) Photo by author

Supply chain disruptions and the product shortages that result have become a growing concern over the past couple of years and the reasons for these are as varied as the people providing the ‘analysis’. Production delays. Covid-19 pandemic. Pent-up consumer demand. Central bank monetary policy. Government economic stimulus. Consumer hoarding. Supply versus demand basics. Labour woes. Vaccination mandates. Union strikes. The number and variety of competing narratives is almost endless.

I have been once again reminded of the vagaries of our supply chains, the disruptions that can result, and our increasing dependence upon them with the unprecedented torrential rain and flood damage across many parts of British Columbia, Canada; and, of course, similar disruptions have occurred across the planet.

Instead of a recognition that perhaps a rethinking is needed of the complexities of our current systems and the dependencies that result from them, particularly in light of this increasingly problematic supply situation, we have politicians (and many in the media) doubling-down on the very systems that have helped to put us in the various predicaments we are encountering.

Our growing reliance on intensive-energy and other resource systems is not viewed as any type of dependency that places us in the crosshairs of ecological overshoot and unforeseen circumstances, but as a supply and demand conundrum that can be best addressed via our ingenuity and technology. Once again the primacy of a political and/or economic worldview, as opposed to an ecological one, shines through in our interpretation of world events; and of course the subsequent ‘solutions’ proposed.

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When Everything Is Artifice and PR, Collapse Beckons

November 22, 2021

When Everything Is Artifice and PR, Collapse Beckons

The notion that consequence can be as easily managed as PR is the ultimate artifice and the ultimate delusion.

The consequences of the drip-drip-drip of moral decay is difficult to discern in day-to-day life. It’s easy to dismiss the ubiquity of artifice, PR, spin, corruption, racketeering, fraud, collusion and narrative manipulation (a.k.a. propaganda) as nothing more than human nature, but this dismissal of moral decay is nothing more than rationalizing the rot to protect insiders from the sobering reality that the entire system is unraveling and heading for its final reckoning: collapse.

We’ve become so accustomed to the excesses of marketing that we’ve lost the ability to recognize the difference between “science” that’s been carefully designed to reach a pre-planned conclusion and science that accepts the outcome, even if it harms well-funded interests.

The vast expanses of ignorance greatly aid this artifice. Even though high school physics, chemistry and biology are sufficient to tease apart the vast majority of rigged experiments, trials and studies, few Americans have the interest or fortitude to read Phase III trial results, etc. critically, and so the corporate media can trumpet bogus results without fear of exposure: all the statistical tricks and gimmicks are passed off as “science” to the distracted and gullible.

And if someone dares to examine the results critically, then those benefiting from the ignorance make the results “secret” until the year 2929. And that’s the entire game in a nutshell: maximizing private gain from artifice, PR, spin, corruption, racketeering, fraud, collusion and narrative manipulation, all masked by an putrid spew of virtue-signaling and PR.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Too clever by half, but not nearly smart enough

November 20, 2021

Too clever by half, but not nearly smart enough

Collapse (Part 1)

November 17, 2021

Collapse (Part 1)

https://youtu.be/gdBSWjxKJOE

Who Would Survive the Collapse of Civilization?

November 16, 2021

Who Would Survive the Collapse of Civilization?

Collapse in a Nutshell: Understanding Our Predicament

November 15, 2021

Collapse in a Nutshell: Understanding Our Predicament

Third of UK’s remaining energy suppliers are at imminent risk of collapse

November 15, 2021

About a third of the UK’s dwindling number of domestic energy suppliers are at imminent risk of collapse amid soaring wholesale energy prices, new analysis suggests.

Wind turbines© Provided by The Telegraph Wind turbinesFourteen electricity and gas suppliers are deemed “maximum risk” under their credit score, accountant Price Bailey found, indicating they will find it difficult to access funding.

It comes amid little sign of respite from the high wholesale natural gas prices caused by a global supply crunch, which have already pushed 19 energy suppliers out of business since the start of September.

Natural gas prices have climbed as much as six times since last summer, but Britain’s price cap on energy bills prevents companies from passing those costs on to customers immediately.

Matt Howard, partner at Price Bailey, said: “The energy supply sector is facing complete carnage as we head into the winter months.

“Over a third of suppliers have already gone bust and another third are at imminent risk of going under in the coming months.”

Price Bailey, a top 30 accountant, checked the Delphi credit scores of all the household electricity and gas supply licence holders registered with Ofgem, excluding the Big Six and two whose credit scores were suppressed.

Video: Former energy and climate change Minister: UK has been ‘very complacent’ about gas market (CNBC)

Of the 29 companies checked, it found that 19 had above average credit risk scores, and 14 are deemed maximum risk.

The figures are likely to trigger alarm among regulators, who have already had to transfer more than two million customers to new companies after

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

George Monbiot champions wealth taxes on ultra-rich as best way to prevent environmental collapse

November 15, 2021

George Monbiot champions wealth taxes on ultra-rich as best way to prevent environmental collapse

Why do we tolerate the massive environmental impacts of the very rich? Most of our dysfunctions are caused by pandering to the rich. —

George Monbiot

“Why do we tolerate the massive environmental impacts of the very rich? Most of our dysfunctions are caused by pandering to the rich. The way governments have allowed democracy to be eroded by lobbyists (including politicians with lucrative private interests); the deregulation that lets corporations, oligarchs and landlords squeeze their workers and tenants, then dump their costs on society; the permissive environment for profiteering during the pandemic; the degradation of health, education, and other public services by the constant drive towards privatization: all these are symptoms of the same condition. The same applies to the worst of our predicaments: the destruction of our life-support systems. The very rich arrogate to themselves the lion’s share of the planetary space on which we all depend. It is hard to understand why we tolerate this attack on our common interests…. Big money now buys everything: even access to the meetings that should address these dysfunctions. On some accounts, Cop26 is the most exclusive of all climate summits. Delegates from poor nations have been thwarted by a cruel combination of byzantine visa requirements, broken promises to make Covid vaccines available, and the mad costs of accommodation, thanks to government failures to cap local prices, or make rooms available. Even when delegates from poorer nations can scale these walls, they often find themselves excluded from the negotiating areas, and therefore unable to influence the talks….

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Collapse of the USA & the Rule of Law?

November 10, 2021

The Collapse of the USA & the Rule of Law?

When we looked at our model combining the presidency, House, and the Senate, we came up with a Panic Cycle in 2021 and 2023. The Democrats better wake up because this foreign agenda has usurped their party, and Biden is clueless as to what is even taking place. The vaccines do not save lives, for the Biden Administration is using this solely to control people, and the long-term goal is to mandate boosters to retain any right whatsoever. They are bringing this in little by little, in tiny steps, because their ideas on how to change society profoundly resemble what Hitler did to Germany (see video).

Video Player

Israel, the most vaccinated country in the world, is sounding the alarm bell, and Western politicians are ignoring orders from central command at the World Economic Forum. Only 17% of eligible Israelis who have not received the vaccine account for 85 coronavirus deaths in a week.

The Biden Administration has told businesses to ignore the courts and follow his commands, which in itself is outrageous. This is the complete collapse of the rule of law and one of the major signs that a government is about to fall into that same common grave that all previous governments lie in rest.

The Biden Administration has no respect for the military. If they refuse the vaccine, they will be denied healthcare and pensions. This is so unconstitutional and outrageous. One must realize that the government failing to support the military could risk the people cheering a military coup to overthrow this administration that is obviously taking orders from non-American sources. Indeed, the fate of Western civilization could be very dark if these people continue to push for their one-world government.

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Things Feel Bleak Because This Way of Life is Coming to an End

November 8, 2021

The Lesson of 2021 is Either We Change — or Things Collapse Around Us

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Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh XXXI

November 2, 2021

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh XXXI

                    Tulum, Mexico (1986) Photo by author

So, dozens of political leaders, their hundreds of staff, multitudes of corporate leaders, and who knows how many ‘celebrities’ have all gathered in Glasgow, Scotland for an elite confab (#26) to discuss the ‘Climate Crisis’. Heaven knows how many resources have been extracted and pollutants dispersed in this latest political theatre (mostly? all? at taxpayer expense). The irony is not lost on many, except perhaps much of the mainstream media that tends to simply regurgitate political media releases and share simplistic narratives for exceedingly complex issues — it is indeed difficult to get someone to understand something if their income depends on them not understanding it.

Needless to say I expect little of substance to result from this event. In fact, I am increasingly seeing this event as an expo for marketing of ‘green/clean’ energy products (and making sure most? all? countries pursue purchasing them) that do not address our fundamental predicament — ecological overshoot — of which greenhouse gases is but one negative consequence (and not even the worst). And, of course, all of this provides the justification to create trillions of more dollars out of thin air (the debt held by a variety of the ruling class) that will be funnelled towards specific industries (owned by others of the ruling class) while doing little to reduce actual consumption or ecologically-destructive extraction industries.

This is increasingly looking not like a problem that can be solved but a predicament that may at best be mitigated on the margins. One of the most significant dilemmas, however, appears to be the ‘solutions’ that are being bandied about also appear to be the ones that will simply make the situation worse: increasing technology and complexities in the form of ‘renewables’.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Shortages & Hyperinflation Lead to Total Misery

October 23, 2021

SHORTAGES & HYPERINFLATION LEAD TO TOTAL MISERY

At the end of major economic cycles, shortages develop in all areas of the economy. And this is what the world is experiencing today on a global basis. There is a general lack of labour, whether it is restaurant staff, truck drivers or medical personnel.

There are also shortages of raw materials, lithium (electric car batteries), semi-conductors, food,  a great deal of consumer products, cardboard boxes, energy and etc, etc. The list is endless.

SHORTAGES EVERYWHERE

Everything is of course blamed on Covid but most of these shortages are due to structural problems. We have today a global system which cannot cope with the tiniest imbalances in the supply chain.

Just one small component missing could change history as the nursery rhyme below explains:

For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For want of a rider, the battle was lost.
For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Cavalry battles are lost if there is a shortage of horseshoe nails.

The world is not just vulnerable to shortages of goods and services.

BOMBSHELLS

Bombshells could appear from anywhere. Let’s just list a few like:

  • Dollar collapse (and other currencies)
  • Stock market crash
  • Debt defaults, bond collapse (e.g. Evergrande)
  • Liquidity crisis  (if  money printing stops or has no effect)
  • Inflation leading to hyperinflation

There is a high likelihood that not just one of the above will happen in the next few years but all of them.

Because this is how empires and economic bubbles end.

The Roman Empire needed 500,000 troops to control its vast empire.

Map of the Roman Empire.

Emperor Septimius Severus (200 AD) advised his sons to “Enrich the troops with gold but no one else”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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