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Petrodollar Reflux to Hit Treasuries, Other Assets

Petrodollar Reflux to Hit Treasuries, Other Assets

Executive Report with ISA Intel, Oil & Energy Insider:

The collapse in oil prices is draining oil-exporting countries of revenue. With substantially lower oil revenues, many of the world’s sovereign wealth funds are dropping in value, which has ramifications for the assets they are invested in. The IMF took a look at this connection between oil prices and sovereign wealth funds and raised the possibility that asset prices around the world could be negatively impacted.

Oil-Backed Sovereign Wealth Funds

Sovereign wealth funds emerged in a big way when oil prices started to rise in the early 2000s. An enormous transfer of wealth occurred from oil-consuming countries to oil-producing countries. Countries like the U.S., for instance, had to shell out ever more cash to buy imported oil from, say, Saudi Arabia.

The wealth accumulated in oil-producing countries. Since they needed to put all the surplus somewhere, they setup sovereign wealth funds to invest the money abroad. The IMF says that the total assets from all of the world’s sovereign wealth funds is estimated at $7.3 trillion.

The wealth transfer is clearly visible when looking at the current account balances of several countries. For example, the United States saw its relatively minor current account deficit balloon into a truly massive deficit by 2005, when oil imports peaked and prices rose. Of course, oil-exporting countries saw the mirror image of that experience, with surpluses opening up from 2004/2005 onwards.

The surpluses quickly disappeared following the financial crisis in 2008-2009 – when oil prices crashed below $40 per barrel – but came back relatively quickly following a rapid resurgence in crude prices.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Federal Reserve: Illusion of Understanding, Illusion of Control

The Federal Reserve: Illusion of Understanding, Illusion of Control

The net result is nonsensical policies that fail to achieve their stated objectives.

We live in an era of illusion: the illusion of understanding, and the illusion of control.

Few institutions reflect these illusions better than the Federal Reserve, though the Pentagon, Congress, the Imperial Presidency, the sick-care cartel and the higher education cartel are certainly giving it a run for its money.

The foundation of the illusion of understanding is data–Big Data. That the Fed has no idea of how the real economy actually functions is painfully apparent. But the state’s vast flood of data, neatly organized into slop-troughs that suggest precision, creates a very compelling illusion of understanding: media shills go to absurd lengths to treat bogus or marginal data as the equivalent of the tablets brought down by Moses.

Sorry, Corporate Media: the unemployment rate and the official rate of inflation are not real. They are illusions rigged to lull the masses and enrapture the simulacrum experts living high on the hog in academia, NGOs (non-governmental organizations) and think-tanks.

Here is the reality, as expressed by IMF Chairwoman Christine Lagarde: what passes for precise data is a guesstimate at best, and a carefully executed distortion at worst.

The net result is nonsensical policies that fail to achieve their stated objectives. Even more tragicomic, the spokespeople tasked with presenting this failure to the Great Unwashed are forced to speak gobbledigook that borders on the psychotic if taken at face value.

For example, Janus Yellen must claim she is planning to raise interest rates while also proclaiming that she’s keeping rates at zero for the indefinite future. If a non-Elite person rambled on in this fashion, they would be tossed in jail as a 51-50 (involuntary psychiatric hold).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Thousands reject the extractivist logic at the World Bank-IMF meeting in Peru

Thousands reject the extractivist logic at the World Bank-IMF meeting in Peru

The annual governors’ meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank opened on October 5 in Peru’s capital city. In the meeting, an estimated 800 representatives from 188 countries were negotiating the shape of the world’s soon-to-be renovated finance infrastructure.

While the international media focused on the official meetings, no news outlets outside of Latin America have mentioned the Plataforma Alternativa conference — a parallel three-day meeting organized under the theme “Belying the ‘Peruvian Miracle.’”

More than 1,200 people attended Plataforma Alternativa’s conference. Dozens of young volunteers zoomed through the marbled hallways of Lima’s Hotel Bolívar, which hosted the conference. Participants represented dozens of organizations and countries as diverse as the Netherlands, China, the United States, Belgium, Zimbabwe, Colombia, Indonesia, Spain, Mexico, the Philippines, Germany, Palestine and Argentina.

On Friday, an estimated 5,000 people marched across 70 blocks in Lima, from Plaza San Martín to the first of three police perimeters around the official conference. Groups at the protest included indigenous feminist organizations, the Lima-based Comando Feminista, Bloque Hip Hop, worker unions, the Peruvian Campesino Confederation, and dozens of others.

Peru reportedly mobilized 20,000 police for this event, many of whom were safeguarding key areas around the city for the 12,000 visitors: from the airport to hotel areas.

The counter-conference was free, open to the public, and streamed online. It featured U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz, a former World Bank chief economist and an outspoken critic of its policies, as its keynote speaker.

“Inequality is a choice — not the result of inevitable economic laws,” Stiglitz said in his speech after reminding the audience that Latin America has the highest rate of wealth disparity among world regions. At the end of September, Oxfam — one of several organizations in charge of the conference — released a report indicating that, at the current pace, one percent of Latin Americans would be wealthier than the remaining 99 percent by 2022.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Pension “Armageddon” Got Closer Today

Pension “Armageddon” Got Closer Today

The IMF fears underfunded pension funds could be encouraged to chase returns through riskier investments such as direct credit exposure or by engaging in securities lending in order to improve their funding ratios….The IMF’s comments echoed similar warnings from the OECD in May, when the Paris-based body said pension funds’ move towards riskier asset classes could result in their solvency position being “seriously compromised” in turbulent markets.  The Financial Times

Yesterday I published a post in which I outlined the reasons why pension fund underfunding is likely much worse than the level admitted by the funds themselves and industry professionals.  The biggest culprit is “mark to market” of illiquid investments into which pension managers have “shoe-horned” themselves in order to give the appearance of rates of return that are higher on paper than in reality.  A good friend and colleague of mine, who happens to be very bright, had this comment in response to my post:

Pension funds are collectively insolvent.  Basically the asset managers running these funds have refused to MTM them properly, expecting the assumed X% annual return to normalize.  Sorry, buddy: this IS the new normal (which is why the unfunded situation gets worse every year… assume 8% and get 0% for enough years and the chasm only widens… in fact, by the rule of 72, your funding gap will double every 9 years if that 8% gap is reality).  This is where the rubber hits the road, the issue which is going to punch the middle class in the gut like a steel 2×4.

This is the same dynamic that torpedoed the big bank balance sheets when the housing/subprime credit bubble popped, as big chunks of home equity, mortgage and other credit products were marked close to par when in reality most of it was worth zero. And this is one of the primary reasons that the Fed is devoting significant resources to keeping the stock market propped up:  pension fund insolvency is at risk.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Trouble With Financial Bubbles

The Trouble With Financial Bubbles

Very soon after the magnitude of the 2008 financial crisis became clear, a lively debate began about whether central banks and regulators could – and should – have done more to head it off. The traditional view, notably shared by former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, is that any attempt to prick financial bubbles in advance is doomed to failure. The most central banks can do is to clean up the mess.

Bubble-pricking may indeed choke off growth unnecessarily – and at high social cost. But there is a counter-argument. Economists at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have maintained that the costs of the crisis were so large, and the cleanup so long, that we should surely now look for ways to act pre-emptively when we again see a dangerous build-up of liquidity and credit.

Hence the fierce (albeit arcane and polite) dispute between the two sides at the International Monetary Fund’s recent meeting in Lima, Peru. For the literary-minded, it was reminiscent of Jonathan Swift’s Gulliver’s Travels. Gulliver finds himself caught in a war between two tribes, one of which believes that a boiled egg should always be opened at the narrow end, while the other is fervent in its view that a spoon fits better into the bigger, rounded end.

It is fair to say that the debate has moved on a little since 2008. Most important, macroprudential regulation has been added to policymakers’ toolkit: simply put, it makes sense to vary banks’ capital requirements according to the financial cycle. When credit expansion is rapid, it may be appropriate to increase banks’ capital requirements as a hedge against the heightened risk of a subsequent contraction. This increase would be above what microprudential supervision – assessing the risks to individual institutions – might dictate. In this way, the new Basel rules allow for requiring banks to maintain a so-called countercyclical buffer of extra capital.

Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-bankers-financial-stability-debate-by-howard-davies-2015-10#fXsDH7ISW0ku2b5s.99

 

Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break-even oil price to be around $US 100 mark for the foreseeable future

Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break-even oil price to be around $US 100 mark for the foreseeable future

The latest IMF Article IV consultation report on Saudi Arabia was published on 9 September 2015.

http://www.imf.org/external/country/sau/

Extract: Government spending has increased substantially in recent years. Consequently, the breakeven oil price rose to $106 a barrel in 2014 from $69 a barrel in 2010. As a result, with the large decline in oil prices, the fiscal deficit has increased sharply and is likely to remain high over the medium-term. These deficits will rapidly erode the fiscal buffers (in the form of government deposits and low public debt) that have been built over the past decade. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15251.pdf

Let’s put this into some graphs. We start with the fiscal deficit first, then look at the external balance.

Expenditure

Fig1: Expenditure, Budgetary Central Government Operations

During the period of high oil prices until 2014, expenditure grew by 9-15% pa. In early 2015, King Salman disbursed a bonus of 50 bn Riyal to government employees, contributing to a 30% increase of the annual wage bill. Capital expenditure (transportation, health and education) includes the expansion works at Medina and Mecca.

Budget Balance

Fig 2: Budget revenue vs expenditure

Oil revenue dropped sharply, starting in 2013 and leading to a negative balance by 2014. It will get worse in 2015. It is clear that the pre 2015 trend cannot continue. The IMF proposes a budget adjustment scenario (ii, Fig 7) by initially reducing expenditure in 2016 and then increasing it moderately by 4% and later 1%.  Oil revenue is assumed to grow along a recovery of oil prices.

 

Fig 3: Budget balance as % of GDP

In Fig 3, we take the balance from Fig 2 and add a curve (blue) as percentage of GDP. In 2015, the deficit reaches 20% of GDP. For comparison: commodity dependent Australia had a budget deficit of -2.6% of GDP in 2014/15, the US estimate for 2015 is -2.7%.

Oil price assumptions

The underlying oil prices have been taken from the World Economic Outlook (WEO), assumed as follows: 

Fig 4: Oil price assumptions and Saudi budget balance

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Numbers Say That A Major Global Recession Has Already Begun

The Numbers Say That A Major Global Recession Has Already Begun

Global - Public DomainThe biggest bank in the western world has just come out and declared that the global economy is “already in a recession”.  According to British banking giant HSBC, global trade is down 8.4 percent so far this year, and global GDP expressed in U.S. dollars is down 3.4 percent.  So those that are waiting for the next worldwide economic recession to begin can stop waiting.  It is officially here.  As you will see below, money is fleeing emerging markets at a blistering pace, major global banks are stuck with huge loans that will never be repaid, and it looks like a very significant worldwide credit crunch has begun.  Just a few days ago, I explained that the IMF, the UN, the BIS And Citibank were all warning that a major economic crisis could be imminent.  They aren’t just making this stuff up out of thin air, but most Americans still seem to believe that everything is going to be just fine.  The level of blind faith in the system that most people are demonstrating right now is absolutely astounding.

The numbers say that the global economy has not been in this bad shape since the devastating recession that shook the world in 2008 and 2009.  According to HSBC, “we are already in a dollar recession”…

Global trade is also declining at an alarming pace. According to the latest data available in June the year on year change is -8.4%. To find periods of equivalent declines we only really find recessionary periods. This is an interesting point. On one metric we are already in a recession. As can be seen in Chart 3 on the following page, global GDP expressed in US dollars is already negative to the tune of USD 1,37trn or -3.4%. That is, we are already in a dollar recession. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF Warns That We Have a New Crisis Coming

IMF Warns That We Have a New Crisis Coming

Lagarde-Coming Crisis

QUESTION: Marty; You mentioned that you met with a board member of the IMF. It certainly seems you are having a much larger impact than you may realize. The IMF is now warning of a crash. Do you think you can help reverse the trend if given the chance?

Thank you for caring

BG

ANSWER: I absolutely could mitigate the crisis. There would be much I could stop in 30 days or less. But the trend is the trend. The system is collapsing. It is not because of some derivatives bubble. It is not because of fiat. This is because of the debt gone wild and governments run by politicians who are clueless and assume that they can bully their way through this by writing laws. LaGarde is now warning that we have not fixed the problems from the last crisis and we have another one brewing.

Yet the IMF is focused on the rising risk of a global financial crash because of a slowdown in China, which undermines the stability of highly indebted emerging economies. The IMF is not saying much other than there are three crisis epic centers within the emerging market crisis including China, Brazil, Turkey, and Malaysia. This could shave 3% off of global GDP, which would devastate Europe in particular. Then there is the chaos of debt in Europe because of the failed euro, but that is a political problem and means politicians need to admit error. The IMF has warned about the battered global markets that have experienced a sharp decline in liquidity since 2007 and are more likely to transmit shocks rather than cushion the blow.

These three areas that the IMF is warning about are the symptoms rather than the causes. The IMF has not identified the root cause of this chaos and that is all emerging from the fact that governments borrow, owe debt, and in turn raise taxes, which lowers growth and reducing living standards. Wait for the pension crisis to hit. A further decline will undermine the European banks and will cause a real meltdown.

The Real Reason Belgium Sold 1,098 Tonnes Of Gold

The Real Reason Belgium Sold 1,098 Tonnes Of Gold

Belgium sold 1,098 tonnes of its official gold reserves since 1978. 

For our global investigation how much physical gold central banks have stored at what location and how much is leased out, I decided to submit the local equivalent of a Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA) request at the central bank of Belgium, de Nationale Bank van België (NBB), to obtain information about the amount of Belgian official gold reserves, the exact location of all gold bars, the type of gold accounts NBB holds at the Bank Of England (BOE) and how much is leased out and to whom. The outcome of this research was not what I had expected.

History Of The Official Gold Reserves Of Belgium

Some of the questions I directed at the NBB I used a stepping stone, as this information is publicly available in part. At the end of August 2015 NBB was holding 227.4 tonnes of gold, down 0.04 tonnes from 227.44 tonnes in July, according to data from the Bundesbank that publishes the gold holdings of 19 European central banks and the ECB in compliance with the IMF’s most recent version of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The Bundesbank (BuBa) publishes the fine troy ounces of the official gold reserves in ‘Gold bullion’ and ‘Unallocated gold accounts’. If we add up both categories the outcome for all countries equals the reserves disclosed by the World Gold Council.

From BuBa:

The balance of payments statistics will … be consistent with the framework set out in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The application of the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) is binding for EU member states by virtue of a regulation adopted by the European Commission. 

Back in 1965 NBB was holding over 1,300 tonnes of gold. Since 1978 it has sold a whopping 1,098 tonnes, or 83 %.

Belgium official gold reserves

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF: $3 trillion in “Over-Borrowing Now Threatens To Unleash a Wave of Defaults”

IMF: $3 trillion in “Over-Borrowing Now Threatens To Unleash a Wave of Defaults”

Global Economic Crisis

The next great financial crisis may be only a short time away.

As readers know, SHTF has routinely covered the bleak warnings and predictions of market insiders and critics of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve.

Now, there is yet another indication that things are reaching a tipping point, and the system is all-too-vulnerable to collapse. Borrowers in states across the globe are under threat of default, and many would be unable to repay loans with even a modest adjustment in the interest rate.

There is so much debt piled up all over the place, that things are absolutely in danger of coming unglued. The IMF is now hovering over the situation, warning of impending crisis.

According to the London Telegraph:

A poisonous “triad” of global risks is pushing the world to the brink of a new financial crisis, says stark IMF report

Governments and central banks risk tipping the world into a fresh financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund has warned, as it called time on a corporate debt binge in the developing world.

Emerging market companies have “over-borrowed” by $3 trillion in the last decade, reflecting a quadrupling of private sector debt between 2004 and 2014, found the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report.

This dangerous over-leveraging now threatens to unleash a wave of defaults that will imperil an already weak global economy, said stark findings from the IMF’s twice yearly report.

Things are apparently teetering dangerously over the edge, with plenty of room to trigger further chaos in the developing world:

The slightest miscalculation, they said, could collapse into a “failed normalisation” of interest rates and market conditions, wiping 3pc from the world’s economic output over the next two years.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Hidden Debt Burden of Emerging Markets

The Hidden Debt Burden of Emerging Markets

As central bankers and finance ministers from around the globe gather for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings here in Peru, the emerging world is rife with symptoms of increasing economic vulnerability. Gone are the days when IMF meetings were monopolized by the problems of the advanced economies struggling to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Now, the discussion has shifted back toward emerging economies, which face the risk of financial crises of their own.

While no two financial crises are identical, all tend to share some telltale symptoms: a significant slowdown in economic growth and exports, the unwinding of asset-price booms, growing current-account and fiscal deficits, rising leverage, and a reduction or outright reversal in capital inflows. To varying degrees, emerging economies are now exhibiting all of them.

The turning point came in 2013, when the expectation of rising interest rates in the United States and falling global commodity prices brought an end to a multi-year capital-inflow bonanza that had been supporting emerging economies’ growth. China’s recent slowdown, by fueling turbulence in global capital markets and weakening commodity prices further, has exacerbated the downturn throughout the emerging world.

These challenges, while difficult to address, are at least discernible. But emerging economies may also be experiencing another common symptom of an impending crisis, one that is much tougher to detect and measure: hidden debts.

Sometimes connected with graft, hidden debts do not usually appear on balance sheets or in standard databases. Their features morph from one crisis to the next, as do the players involved in their creation. As a result, they often go undetected, until it is too late.

Indeed, it was not until after the eruption of the 1994-1995 peso crisis that the world learned that Mexico’s private banks had taken on a significant amount of currency risk through off-balance-sheet borrowing (derivatives).
Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/hidden-debt-burden-emerging-markets-by-carmen-reinhart-2015-10#EU5Q4DVCDEzO1msE.99

Why Are The IMF, The UN, The BIS And Citibank All Warning That An Economic Crisis Could Be Imminent?

Why Are The IMF, The UN, The BIS And Citibank All Warning That An Economic Crisis Could Be Imminent?

Question Sign Red - Public DomainThe warnings are getting louder.  Is anybody listening?  For months, I have been documenting on my website how the global financial system is absolutely primed for a crisis, and now some of the most important financial institutions in the entire world are warning about the exact same thing.  For example, this week I was stunned to see that the Telegraph had published an article with the following ominous headline: “$3 trillion corporate credit crunch looms as debtors face day of reckoning, says IMF“.  And actually what we are heading for would more accurately be described as a “credit freeze” or a “credit panic”, but a “credit crunch” will definitely work for now.  The IMF is warning that the “dangerous over-leveraging” that we have been witnessing “threatens to unleash a wave of defaults” all across the globe…

Governments and central banks risk tipping the world into a fresh financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund has warned, as it called time on a corporate debt binge in the developing world.

Emerging market companies have “over-borrowed” by $3 trillion in the last decade, reflecting a quadrupling of private sector debt between 2004 and 2014, found the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report.

This dangerous over-leveraging now threatens to unleash a wave of defaults that will imperil an already weak global economy, said stark findings from the IMF’s twice yearly report.

The IMF is actually telling the truth in this instance.  We are in the midst of the greatest debt bubble the world has ever seen, and it is a monumental threat to the global financial system.

But even though we know about this threat, that doesn’t mean that we can do anything about it at this point or stop what is about to happen.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF downgrades Canadian growth outlook to 1% for 2015

IMF downgrades Canadian growth outlook to 1% for 2015

Risks for the world include low commodities prices, China’s slowdown and rate hikes

The IMF has downgraded its outlook for Canadian growth to one per cent this year because of the impact of lower oil and commodities prices.

It also has revised its expectations for global growth downwards to 3.1 per cent, the lowest since 2009.

In a report Tuesday in advance of the IMF-World Bank annual meetings this week in Lima, Peru, it highlights the downside risks to the world economy from the economic slowdown in China and low prices for commodities.

The recovery it expected earlier in the year has become uneven, it said in its World Economic Outlook with marginal advances in developed economies and slowing in most emerging economies.

“Six years after the world economy emerged from its broadest and deepest postwar recession, the holy grail of robust and synchronized global expansion remains elusive,” said Maurice Obstfeld, IMF director of research.

Growth slower in most nations

“Despite considerable differences in country-specific outlooks, the new forecasts mark down expected near-term growth marginally but nearly across the board.”

It has revised its estimate for Canadian GDP growth downward by half a percentage point from its July forecast to one per cent this year, and to 1.7 per cent in 2016. Last year, the IMF was forecasting 2.2 per cent growth for the Canadian economy.

A side report explores how the sharp decline in commodity pricesover the last three years has hurt economies dependent on commodities, including Canada, Chile and Australia.

“The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract almost one percentage point annually from the average rate of economic growth in commodity exporters over 2015–17 as compared with 2012–14,” the IMF said.

“In exporters of energy commodities, the drag is estimated to be larger: about 2¼ percentage points on average over the same period.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

High Priests of Global Finance Stoke Emerging Market Fears

High Priests of Global Finance Stoke Emerging Market Fears

Two of the most important guardians of global finance, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the IIF (Institute of International Finance), gave their verdict on the current state of the global economy this week. And their message could not be clearer: beware the dreaded fate of emerging markets.

The World According to A Prestigious Club of Global Banks

The IIF warned this week that hot money is pouring out of emerging markets at a startling rate, primarily on the back of China’s crunching slowdown and rising fears of a looming US rate hike.

Before we go any further, here’s a caveat: The IIF is a prestigious “club of global banks.” After the Club of 30, it is arguably the most powerful financial lobby association on the planet. It is also one of the strongest proponents of self-regulation in banking, a major cause of the Global Financial Crisis. Could an organization like the IIF have ulterior motives?

This year capital outflows from emerging economies will surpass inflows for the first time since 1988. Residents sending cash out of the emerging markets has accelerated amid recent financial market volatility while at the same time foreign investment is set to nearly halve from $1,074 billion in 2014 to just $548 billion this year.

The countries most at risk are those with high current account deficits, pronounced levels of corporate debt denominated in foreign currencies, and extreme political uncertainty. Brazil, whose currency has suffered a 30% currency depreciation this year, and Turkey (15%) are among the nations “in this situation,” the report warns. The nation most at risk is Venezuela, which (according to estimates by US financial firms) is currently suffering annual inflation of 120%. The country’s risk of default is “extremely high” and could even happen as early as 2016, warns the IIF.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Today’s Turning Point on ECM

Today’s Turning Point on ECM

Syria_Russia_9-30-2015

I have been warning that this turning point is not in markets, it is centered in government. The number of issues coming to a head are just mind-blowing from the Catalonia vote to separate from Spain to the resignation of Boehner with non-politicians leading not just in the USA, but everywhere. The elections in Greece was most likely the last vote for any political establishment since the Greeks do not expect any promise to be kept.

Yet today just may mark a very strange event that might be extremely important. Today, Russia gave the US 1 hour notice and began bombing both ISIS and rebels seeking to overthrow the Syrian government. It is extremely curious that this beginning precisely on the day of the ECM. Will this prove to be the start of international war?

Lagarde-Christine-imfMeanwhile, Christine Lagarde of the IMF came out to state today also on the turning point of the ECM that the rate of economic growth this year will probably be weaker than in 2014. I had a meeting in Europe with a former board member of the IMF and we had some very frank discussions. To put it mildly, they are indeed worried. The inflation rate for Euroland just turned NEGATIVE again.

So while cash is now KING, stocks remain vulnerable and commodities have no bid sufficient to change the trend, it appears we are headed into the wonderland of our political-economy.

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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