After its worst quarter ever, as COVID-19 lockdowns crushed demand, raising fears about overflowing storage tanks amid a price war that has flooded the market with extra supply, all eyes are glued to today’s official inventory data (after API reported a major surprise build in crude and gasoline stocks) as Standard Chartered analysts, including Emily Ashford warned in a report, oil tanks around the world could fill in six weeks, a move that will likely force significant production shut-downs,
“Huge inventory builds, potentially exhausting spare storage capacity, will mean that market balance requires an unprecedented output shutdown by producers,” they wrote.
So, eyes down…
“There is the very real possibility that this week’s storage reports could be the energy patch version of last Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims,” Robert Yawger, Mizuho Securities USA’s director of energy said in a note.
“I would expect the numbers to be supersized and challenge multi-year highs/lows on multiple data points. Of course, I have been expecting big numbers for the past couple week, but the fireworks have not happened. That leads me to believe that the data explosion will likely happen this week … Exports will likely be down big, and refinery utilization will likely pull back dramatically. That will leave a lot of crude oil on the sidelines … EIA crude oil storage has been higher for nine weeks in a row. Storage will likely double up and increase at the rate of around 10 million for another nine weeks…at least.”
- Crude +10.485mm (+4.6mm exp) – biggest build since Feb 2017
- Cushing +2.926mm – biggest build since Feb 2019
- Gasoline +6.058mm (+3.6mm exp) – biggest build since Jan 2020
- Distillates -4.458mm (-600k exp)
- Crude +13.833mm (+4.6mm exp) – biggest since Oct 2016
- Cushing +3.521mm – biggest build since Mar 2018
- Gasoline +7.524mm (+3.6mm exp) – biggest build since Jan 2020
- Distillates -2.194mm (-600k exp)