With the U.S. and China in the midst of a new round of high level trade talks, this Thursday marks 22 months since tariffs were launched and the trade war began. Far from being “easy to win”, the trade war has lasted far longer than most analysts in the mainstream and alternative media predicted. In past articles, I have warned that the trade war itself is probably not meant to be won at all; rather, it is a massive distraction and a convenient scapegoat as global banks set the implosion of the Everything Bubble in motion. I continue to stand by this assessment, which is why I think it is unlikely that the current talks with China will accomplish much of anything.
This conclusion runs in stark contrast to all the hype we heard in the investment community in September. The way stock markets levitated, one would have thought a deal was assured. Never underestimate the power of blind optimism, I suppose. I believe there are a very limited number of end games to the meeting, none of which will result in an actual “deal”. However, it’s important to understand the dynamics at play here.
First and foremost, if we are to approach the trade war from a mere surface examination, there is really no incentive for China to capitulate to Trump’s demands. There is only one year left until the 2020 elections, and while BOTH economies are certainly seeing a downward plunge, China is hardly crippled by tariffs on exports to the U.S. China can simply bide its time, waiting to see how the U.S. election unfolds. The more unstable the U.S. economy is in 2020, the less likely it will be that Trump will win a second term.
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