What Will Weather Do in 2015? Forecasters Say El Nino Looms – Bloomberg.
Forecasters in Australia and New Zealand warned El Nino may soon be back, reviving concern that the weather pattern that can bring drought to parts of Asia and rains to South America may return for the first time since 2010.
Tropical Pacific temperatures have exceeded El Nino levels for a month and the Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, has remained at or near thresholds for three months, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement today. Patterns are consistent with a weak event developing, New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research said separately.
El Ninos, caused by periodic warmings of the Pacific, can roil agricultural markets worldwide as farmers contend with drought across parts of Asia or too much rain in South America. Palm oil, cocoa, coffee and sugar are among crops most at risk, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Forecasters, including scientists from Australia, raised the possibility of an El Nino developing earlier this year, before tempering their outlook as conditions for the event didn’t develop.
“Further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, so it also remains possible that the ocean and atmosphere will fully couple in the coming weeks to months,” Australia’s bureau said in the fortnightly update. “If an El Nino is established, models suggest it will be weak, or moderate at best.”
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