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Flooding in Central Asia and southern Russia kills scores and forces tens of thousands to evacuate to higher ground

Flooding in Central Asia and southern Russia kills scores and forces tens of thousands to evacuate to higher ground

Unusually heavy seasonal rains have left a vast swath of southern Russia and Central Asia reeling from floods, with dozens of people dead in Afghanistan and Pakistan and tens of thousands forced to flee their homes in Kazakhstan and Russia.

Authorities say the flooding — the atypical intensity of which scientists blame on human-driven climate change — is likely to get worse, with more rain predicted and already swollen rivers bursting their banks.

Scores killed in Pakistan and Afghanistan

Lightning and heavy rains killed at least 36 people in Pakistan, mostly farmers, over three days, emergency response officials said Monday, as a state of emergency was declared in the southwest of the country. Most of the deaths were blamed on farmers being struck by lightning and torrential rain collapsing houses, The Associated Press quoted regional disaster management spokesperson Arfan Kathia as saying Monday. He noted that more rain was expected over the coming week.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a televised address that he’d ordered authorities to rush aid to the affected regions, where swollen rivers and flash floods have also severely damaged roads.

PAKISTAN-WEATHER
Onlookers gaze towards municipal workers using heavy machinery to level the ground after damage due to floodwaters following heavy rains on the outskirts of Quetta on April 15, 2024.BANARAS KHAN/AFP/GETTY

In neighboring Afghanistan, the country’s Taliban rulers said Sunday that heavy flooding from seasonal rains had killed at least 33 people and left more than two dozen others injured over three days. Abdullah Janan Saiq, the spokesman for the government’s disaster management agency, said the flash floods hit the capital, Kabul, and several other provinces.

He said more than 600 homes were damaged or destroyed completely, with hundreds of acres of farmland destroyed and many farm animals killed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Heatwave updates: IMD issues warning for Mumbai, Bengal, Goa; respite for Delhi-NCR

Heatwave updates: IMD issues warning for Mumbai, Bengal, Goa; respite for Delhi-NCR

Weather updates on April 16: The IMD issued a heatwave warning for multiple states, including cities in Maharashtra, Goa, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a heatwave warning for multiple states across India including Maharashtra, North Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and West Bengal, in its latest weather forecast. The IMD also issued a separate warning for Maharashtra cities such as Thane, Mumbai and Raigad for an impending heatwave this week.

A heatwave warning has been issued by IMD in multiple states.(Rahul Raut/HT file photo)
A heatwave warning has been issued by IMD in multiple states.(Rahul Raut/HT file photo)

In Maharashtra, the minimum temperature in Mumbai and Thane is expected to be 36 to 38 degrees Celsius while in North Goa, heatwave conditions are expected to prevail on April 15 and 16. Odisha is also expected to experience heatwave conditions from April 15 to 19 this month.

Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are also bracing for high temperatures, according to the IMD forecast. It is expected that heatwave conditions in both states will prevail from April 16 to 18, leading to rising concerns for the citizens.

heatwave alert has also been issued in West Bengal, which is expected to witness soaring temperatures from April 17 to 19. A yellow alert was issued in multiple districts in Kerala, including Kollam, Thrissur, Palakkad and Thiruvananthapuram. Kerala districts like Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Ernakulam, and Kasargod are also expected to witness high temperatures this week.

Delhi-NCR weather forecast

According to the weather agency’s latest predictions, Delhi and other NCR cities are expected to witness a respite from the smouldering heat this week, with pleasant weather expected in most areas.

For April 16, the IMD has predicted cloudy skies and accompanied by strong surface winds expected to reach speeds of 20 to 25 kmph during the day in the national capital…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We have two years to save the planet: UN climate chief

Simon Stiell
Simon Stiell
Governments, business leaders and development banks have two years to take action to avert far worse climate change, the UN’s climate chief said yesterday, in a speech that warned global warming is slipping down politicians’ agendas.
Scientists say that halving climate-damaging greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is crucial to stop a rise in temperatures of more than 1.5° Celsius that would unleash more extreme weather and heat.
Yet last year, the world’s energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased to a record high. Current commitments to fight climate change would barely cut global emissions at all by 2030.
Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) said that the next two years are “essential in saving our planet”.
The Group of 20 developed and developing economies including the United States, China and India faced many geopolitical challenges but this “cannot be an excuse for timidity amidst this worsening crisis”, Stiell said.
“I’ll be candid: blame-shifting is not – is not – a strategy. Sidelining climate isn’t a solution to a crisis that will decimate every G20 economy and has already started to hurt,” he said. “The financial firepower the G20 marshalled during the global financial crisis should be marshalled again and pointed squarely at curbing runaway emissions and building resilience right now.”
“We still have a chance to make greenhouse gas emissions tumble, with a new generation of national climate plans. But we need these stronger plans, now,” he said.
Speaking at an event at the Chatham House think-tank in London, Stiell said that the Group of 20 (G20) leading economic powers – together responsible for 80% of global emissions – urgently needed to step up.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Open comment post: the AMOC shutdown and the future of agriculture

Open comment post: the AMOC shutdown and the future of agriculture

It’s time to move on to pastures new from my Saying NO… book, as I mentioned in my last post. Seems like an opportune moment to try an ‘open comment’ post to signal the change of direction, an idea I trailed at the start of the year.

What I think emerged from that discussion was for me to suggest a broad topic and perhaps a few talking points from it and then to see where things went in the discussion. Kind of like a normal post! Back then, Ruben wrote “ I would love to hear your thoughts on AMOC shutdown, drought, more frequent extreme weather, and other growing challenges for agriculture. That might be a good topic for an open post.” Indeed I believe it would be, so let’s go with that.

In case this is unfamiliar, the ‘AMOC’ is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the major current system in the Atlantic Ocean, involving the northward flow of warm water and the southward flow of colder water which helps moderate the climate of both colder high-latitude countries and warmer low-latitude ones. Studies have suggested that present human-caused climate change could result in the shutdown of the AMOC, the consequences for both colder and warmer countries within this Atlantic system being, not to overstate the case … very bad.

recent study that models AMOC shutdown has put the heebie-jeebies up a lot of people, including me – see Prof Stefan Rahmstorf’s summary here. Seems like we could be on course for an AMOC shutdown tipping point within the next seventy years with 95 percent confidence…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

In Texas, the Heat Index Is Rising Faster Than the Temperature

In Texas, the Heat Index Is Rising Faster Than the Temperature

A new study of summer weather in Texas finds the heat index — an indicator of how hot it feels outside — is rising much faster than the temperature.

The reason, scientists say, is that warming is leading to a rise in humidity. Historically in Texas, the relative humidity would fall when the temperature rose, making it possible to cool off by sweating. But now Texas is seeing high heat and high humidity together. On hot, muggy days, the air is so saturated with water that sweat sticks to the skin rather than evaporating. As a result, the weather feels much warmer than a thermometer alone would suggest.

In 1979, physicist Robert Steadman developed the heat index to indicate how such weather actually feels. But Steadman did not calculate the index for the high levels of heat and humidity routinely seen today. In 2022, scientists at UC Berkeley recalculated the heat index to account for more extreme weather. And in 2023, Berkeley physicist David Romps applied the updated heat index to the summer heat in Texas.

He found that while Texas has warmed by around 3 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) on average since the preindustrial era, on some scorching summer days last year it felt up to 11 degrees F (6 degrees C) hotter than it would have without climate change. His study was published in Environmental Research Letters.

Romps wrote that, compared to the temperature, the heat index offers “a more accurate picture of the extent to which global warming has increased heat stress.”

Advances and challenges in understanding compound weather and climate extremes

Advances and challenges in understanding compound weather and climate extremes

storm
Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

In the context of global warming, many extremes, such as heat waves, heavy precipitation, and droughts, have become increasingly frequent and intense, as expected theoretically. Somewhat unexpectedly, these extremes have also exhibited tightened linkage in both time and space, constituting compound weather and climate extremes with larger impacts.

During the past decade, compound events received considerable attention, with much progress in event typology, impacts, changes and risks already made.

A study led by Prof. Zengchao Hao (College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University) and Prof. Yang Chen (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences) explores more than a dozen recent compound events. The paper is published in the journal Science China Earth Sciences.

By synthesizing nearly 350 peer-reviewed papers, the authors thoroughly documented definitions and impacts, physical mechanisms, and historical/future changes as well as  evidence with respect to 13 reported and relatively well-studied compound events. Some of these events are specific to East Asian monsoonal regions.

They also pointed out deficiencies and gaps in existing studies on each of these events. At the end of the review, they attempted to identify data and methodological challenges common to the field and came up with outlooks on the future directions of the emerging topic.

More specifically, they laid out their review by order of definition, mechanisms, changes, and attribution. For each of the reviewed events, the authors adopted an impact-centric approach to introduce the definition by illustrating how the fashion of compounding aggregated and amplified impacts. Distinct from previous reviews on some types of compound events focusing largely on long-term changes, the new review assigned a large volume of space to the underlying physical processes, especially from the dynamic (including monsoon dynamics) and multi-sphere interactive perspectives.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Will The Texas Power Grid Survive Next Week’s Polar Vortex?

Will The Texas Power Grid Survive Next Week’s Polar Vortex?

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts extreme cold weather “across the heart of the country this weekend and is expected to continue into next week.” We previewed this cold blast in a note titled Gobsmackingly Bananas”: Weather Models Predict Polar Vortex Invasion Into US.

Whenever cold air spills south from Canada into the Heartland, attention usually shifts to Texas.

Next, power demand forecasts from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the power grid operator for Texas, are analyzed to see if demand forecasts exceed supply. Current forecasts show ERCOT faces the first major test of grid stability for the new year.

And this:

ERCOT has warned its 26 million Texas customers about the upcoming cold blast this weekend into next week. The grid operator assures customers, “Grid conditions are expected to be normal, and ERCOT expects to have sufficient supply to meet demand.”

Energy-focused research firm Criterion Research told clients in a note Wednesday that ERCOT will likely survive the big cold shot:

 ERCOT has issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) for the upcoming cold weather event forecast from January 15-17, 2024. The OCN is the first of four levels of communication provided by the agency ahead of a possible Emergency Condition – the following three levels would be Energy Emergency Levels 1 through 3.

ERCOT’s current forecast run shows extreme demand conditions starting on Tuesday, January 16, 2024. That includes a projected peak load of 85,587 MW at 7 AM that morning. However, renewable generation from wind and solar are expected to help out as demand pushes to a seasonal record, with early morning wind + solar contribution 14,137 MW.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The World Has Already Ended

The World Has Already Ended

Due to climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss, the world in which civilization was born has already ended. Most people just don’t know it yet.

“You say the ocean’s rising,
Like I give a shit,
You say the whole world’s ending,
Honey, it already did.”

– All Eyes On Me by Bo Burnham

The world that many of us grew up in is already gone, replaced by a world of superstorms, megadroughts, brutal heat waves, rising sea levels, toxic chemicals, and mass extinction. It happened so gradually that most people didn’t even notice, but they will soon.

Many people, particularly those in first-world countries, have been relatively insulated from the effects of the polycrisis, even if they have seen their standard of living drop. So it’s easy for them to dismiss warnings about the end of the world.

I’ve often heard people say things like, “What’s with all the doom and gloom? Sure, the weather is a little worse, but for the most part, things are fine.” The purpose of this article is to prove that things are not fine. In fact, things are worse than ever, and it’s all downhill from here.

Civilization was born during the Holocene, an epoch that lasted about 10,000 years. During this time, the average global temperature was incredibly stable, never varying more than 1°C. As a result, weather patterns were also very stable, creating conditions that were perfect for societies to flourish.

With more predictable weather, farmers were able to greatly expand agriculture, and the ability to stockpile grain contributed to the development of the first civilizations. Humans have had the intelligence necessary to form civilizations for about 300,000 years, but the Holocene made it possible.

We inherited a beautiful world covered with vast forests and teeming with millions of species. And in just a couple hundred years, we destroyed it. Forests are dying, countless species are going extinct, and the weather has become increasingly dangerous and unpredictable.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Watchdog Has Grim Winter Warning: There May Be Blackouts

Watchdog Has Grim Winter Warning: There May Be Blackouts

  • North American Reliability Corp: As much as two-thirds of the United States could experience blackouts in peak winter weather.
  • Earlier this year, NERC issued a blackout warning for some parts of the U.S. over the summer, citing extreme temperatures.
  • The regulator points to the lack of gas transport infrastructure as one of the main challenges for the U.S. grid this winter.
Electricity

As much as two-thirds of the United States could experience blackouts in peak winter weather this and next year, the North American Reliability Corp has warned.

These warnings have become something of a routine for the regulatory agency lately. Earlier this year, NERC issued a blackout warning for some parts of the U.S. over the summer, citing extreme temperatures.

This latest warning also has to do with extreme temperatures. Yet it’s not just the temperatures themselves that are the problem. It’s the power generation mix that is making the grid more vulnerable.

In its latest assessment, NERC cited recent data showing that up to a fifth of generating capacity could be forced offline in case of a cold snap over areas that do not normally get this kind of weather.

The regulator points to the lack of gas transport infrastructure as one of the main challenges for the U.S. grid this winter as it compromises the security of generating fuel supply. The report also notes historical evidence that extreme winter weather can also affect the production of natural gas and, as a result, reinforce the effect of weather on power supply security.

It is not just natural gas that is problematic, however. The massive buildout of wind and solar capacity has also had an impact on electricity supply reliability and could turn into a problem during the winter.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

USDA Reveals US Corn-Harvested Acres At 2008 Levels Amid Megadrought

USDA Reveals US Corn-Harvested Acres At 2008 Levels Amid Megadrought

Last year was a bad year for corn — the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report shows drought conditions and extreme weather wreaked havoc on croplands.

USDA unexpectedly slashed its outlook for domestic corn production amid a severe drought across the western farm belt. Farmers in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas were forced to abandon drought-plagued fields.

The agency estimated farmers harvested 79.2 million acres, a decline of 1.6 million acres versus the previous estimate — the smallest acres harvest since 2008.

The unexpected cut to US harvested corn acres means grain supplies are a lot tighter than realized. A report Thursday showed the corn area in the world’s largest producer is at the smallest since 2008 with crops failing in states such as Texas and Nebraska. That’s due to persistent drought conditions in the western part of the country that could also hit harvests for wheat plants that are currently dormant for the winter. — Bloomberg

The crop-failed lands reduced total harvest corn acreage to levels not seen since 2008.

Less acreage tightens supply and might continue to put a bid under corn prices.

Global food prices remain at crisis levels.

Here’s the current drought situation across the farm belt.

Corn production woes from the US don’t bode well in the fight to crush food inflation. It seems as if the prices for our food will remain high well through 2023.

Siberia Records Minus-80 Degrees As Talk Of Polar Vortex Grows

Siberia Records Minus-80 Degrees As Talk Of Polar Vortex Grows

Several weeks after the Christmas Arctic blast, much of the US and Europe have enjoyed record warmth. Recall on Dec. 27, we noted the cold air mass from Siberia that spread across the continental US would dissipate into the new year. So far, this is correct, as three weeks of above-average weather has staved off an energy crisis in the Northern Hemisphere. But just north, in Siberia, temperatures are sinking to near-record lows. And it could only be a matter of time before the giant cold air mass swirling in the North Pole becomes unstable, breaks down, and begins pouring into the US and Europe.

Global warming alarmists who called for an imminent climate disaster last summer are scratching their heads as the rural northern Siberian town of Zhilinda just recorded temperatures of minus-79.8 degrees, according to climatologist Maximiliano Herrera, who tracks extreme temperatures across the globe.

Herrera told The Washington Post that Zhilinda was just a few degrees off from breaking its record low of minus-82.3 degrees. The all-time low for the Northern Hemisphere was set in Russia in 1933 at minus-89.9 degrees.

Earlier this week, Arcfield Weather’s Paul Dorian said winter isn’t over and called for a significant change in North American weather “in about ten days or so.” Like anything, nothing is ever constant, and the warm spell could give way to colder temps later this month or early February.

“Sometimes, exceptionally cold air that builds over Siberia spills into the eastern United States,” WaPo explained, adding:

“Although the eastern United States has had very mild weather since that late December cold blast, there is the potential for a significant pattern change toward the end of January.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Torrential Rains Trigger Flash Floods Across California

Torrential Rains Trigger Flash Floods Across California

Since the end of December, a ‘parade of cyclones’ has swamped California. The latest round of torrential rain has caused flooding in Los Angeles County, and still unclear in the early morning hours of Tuesday the extent of the destruction, though social media video on Monday evening shows flooded streets, overflowing streams and rivers, and mudslides in what is usually a dry, sunny place where residents have to worry about drought.

National Weather Service said 34 million people are under flood alerts across Southern and Central California through early Tuesday. In Los Angeles County, a flood warning is in effect through the evening.

Dramatic footage has surfaced on social media showing the widespread flooding.

Forecasters estimate the latest round of rain could bring upwards of 5-10 inches in some areas by the end of this week.

More stormy weather is forecasted for today. NWS said heavy precipitation is expected this morning and will begin to taper later in the day, warning a new and “energetic” low-pressure system was becoming more powerful offshore.

Officials said Los Angeles and San Diego residents faced an increased risk of flash flooding and mudslides. Tropical storm-strength winds were also forecast for San Luis Obispo County. Parts of Highway 101, which runs up and down the West Coast, were closed due to flooded-out sections of the major roadway.

Santa Barbara County told residents to shelter in place and closed public schools today. Officials told wealthy residents of Montecito, such as Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, to evacuate because of the flooding.

And it was just only six months ago ‘global warming’ alarmists and celebrities were complaining about droughts…

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced yesterday that storms had caused 14 deaths. He said that figure was higher than deaths caused by “wildfires in the past two years combined.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘Pineapple Express’ And Bomb Cyclone To Wallop California

‘Pineapple Express’ And Bomb Cyclone To Wallop California

A moisture conveyor belt of atmospheric rivers has unleashed near-record rainfall across the West Coast. Another, perhaps, more powerful atmospheric river and bomb cyclone are set to target California on Wednesday and Thursday, continuing ten days of heavy rains and snow for higher altitudes.

The National Weather Service office in the Bay Area warned about the imminent storm, calling it a “truly … brutal system … that needs to be taken seriously.”

“To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in a long while,” an NWS meteorologist in San Francisco, adding, “the impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillside collapsing, trees down (potentially full groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce and the worst of all, likely loss of human life.”

The developing atmospheric river formed near Hawaii and, by Wednesday morning, will spread tropical moisture into California by a low-pressure system. This weather phenomenon is known as the “Pineapple Express.”

“Basically, an (atmospheric river) is a river in the sky of water vapor, and when it hits the mountains, (the moisture) is forced up over the mountains. 

 “That upward motion causes clouds and precipitation to form, and the faster the flow of air and water vapor is hitting the mountains, the faster the rain is falling, so you get more and more rain with the stronger ARs hitting the mountains,” Marty Ralph, Director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, told FOX Weather

The heaviest rainbands are forecasted over parts of California Wednesday afternoon and evening into Thursday morning. NWS has already posted flood alerts across the Golden State.

Another 2-3 inches could be expected across the San Francisco area. Even the Los Angeles metro area could see 1-3 inches.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Texas Refineries Could Take Two Weeks To Fully Restore Operations After Storm

Texas Refineries Could Take Two Weeks To Fully Restore Operations After Storm

Most refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast have begun procedures to restart operations that were disrupted by the massive winter storm late last week, but a full return to normal output of motor fuels could take up to two weeks for some facilities.

The freezing temperatures affected refinery equipment and caused issues at the steam and co-generation units at some refineries, sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters on Wednesday.

Pemex’s Deer Park refinery and Motiva Enterprises’ Port Arthur, the biggest refinery in the United States, could see their restart stretched out to the first or second week of January, sources familiar with the refineries’ operations and schedules told Reuters.

Winter Storm Elliott led to hard-freeze warnings issued for all the states along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where most of the U.S. refining capacity is located.

As of Friday, December 23, as much as 1.5 million bpd of the Gulf Coast’s refining capacity was shut down due to the freezing temperatures, per Reuters estimates.

Refineries run by Motiva Enterprises, Marathon Petroleum, and TotalEnergies outside Houston were shut late last week. Operations at other refineries in Texas, run by ExxonMobil, Valero Energy, and LyondellBasell, were also disrupted by the severe winter storm.

In total, the extreme winter weather affected some of the output at refineries along the Gulf Coast that process a combined 3.58 million barrels per day (bpd) and deliver around 20% of U.S. motor fuels.

Last week, the national average gasoline price dropped for a seventh consecutive week, but it’s not certain this week will bring another decline in gasoline prices, due to the rally in oil prices and the refinery outages due to the storm, according to fuel savings app GasBuddy.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The weather nightmare before Christmas

The weather nightmare before Christmas

A sprawling cold wave and blizzard will bring some of the nation’s most dangerous and disruptive pre-holiday weather in recent decades.
Cars travel on a highway with limited visibility during a blizzard.
Dangerous white-out conditions, such as those that closed I-87 in Oregon during a 2017 winter storm, could plague many U.S. roadways late this week. (Image credit: Oregon Department of Transportation via Flickr, CC BY 2.0)

Tens of millions of Americans will find themselves recalibrating – and in some cases canceling – holiday plans over the next week, as an exceptionally intense Arctic front plows across most of the eastern two-thirds of the United States during the run-up to Christmas Day.

Below-freezing air will push to the Gulf Coast by Christmas weekend, with readings likely to dip below zero Fahrenheit from Oklahoma to Ohio late this week. On top of this, a “bomb” cyclone (one that deepens by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours) will race from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday, December 23-24. Fierce winds and heavy snow are expected to produce widespread blizzard conditions and shut down transportation over portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest on one of the year’s busiest travel weekends.

Heavy rains and high winds will buffet the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast before the front arrives, most likely bringing a burst of cold and a quick shot of snow around Saturday (Christmas Eve).

Update (Tuesday 2:15 pm EST): As the Arctic influx hit the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, flights were halted at the Vancouver, British Columbia, airport, and heavy snow hammered areas north and west of Seattle.

 

 

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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