One week ago, in the aftermath of the dramatic downgrade to junk of Asian commodity giant Noble Group, we showed readers the list of potential “fallen angel” companies, those “investment “grade companies (such as Freeport McMoRan whose CDS trades at near-default levels) who are about to be badly junked, focusing on the 18 or so US energy companies that are about to lose their investment grade rating.
Perhaps inspired by this preview, earlier today Moody’s took the global energy sector to the woodshed, placing 175 global oil, gas and mining companies and groups on review for a downgrade due to a prolonged rout in global commodities prices that it says could remain depressed indefinitely.
The wholesale credit rating warning came alongside Moody’s cut to its oil price forecast deck. In 2016, it now expects the Brent and WTI to average $33 a barrel, a $10 drop for Brent and $7 for WTI.
Warning of possible downgrades for 120 energy companies, among which 69 public and private US corporations, the rating agency said there was a “substantial risk” of a slow recovery in oil that would compound the stress on oil and gas firms.
As first reported first by Reuters, the global review includes all major regions and ranges from the world’s top international oil and gas companies such as Royal Dutch Shell and France’s Total to 69 U.S. and 19 Canadian E&P and services firms. Notably absent, however, were the two top U.S. oil companies ExxonMobil and Chevron.
Moody’s said it was likely to conclude the review by the end of the first quarter which could include multiple-notch downgrades for some companies, particularly in North America, in other words, one of the biggest event risks toward the end of Q1 is a familiar one: unexpected announcements by the rating agencies, which will force banks to override their instructions by the Dallas Fed and proceed to boost their loss reserves dramatically.
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