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Glencore Says This Time Is Different for Coming Copper Shortage

December 7, 2022

Glencore Says This Time Is Different for Coming Copper Shortage

(Bloomberg) — Glencore Plc added its voice to a chorus of miners warning of coming copper shortages, arguing that a “huge deficit” is looming for the crucial industrial metal.

Chief Executive Officer Gary Nagle said that while some people were assuming that the industry would lift supplies as it had in previous cycles to meet a forecast increase in demand driven by the energy transition, “this time it is going to be a bit different.”

He presented estimates showing a cumulative gap between projected demand and supply of 50 million tons between 2022 and 2030. That compares with current world copper demand of about 25 million tons a year.

“There’s a huge deficit coming in copper, and as much as people write about it, the price is not yet reflecting it,” Nagle said.

Copper miners and analysts have been warning of growing deficits starting in the mid-2020s, driven by rising demand for copper in wind and solar farms, high voltage cables, and electric vehicles. While most analysts believe that prices will rise from current levels around $8,500 a ton, there is some disagreement about how large the copper shortages might be.

Still, Nagle said that Glencore, which is one of the world’s top copper miners and traders, will wait to lift its own output of the metal until the world is “screaming” for it. “We want to see that deficit,” he said.

Nagle said that Glencore could lift its annual copper production by more than 60% from current levels of 1 million tons with expansions of its current assets. The company is also eyeing a $5.6 billion new-build project at El Pachon in Argentina.

The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed “QE For The Entire World”… And May Have Bailed Out US Shale

April 22, 2016

The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed “QE For The Entire World”… And May Have Bailed Out US Shale

Almost exactly one year ago, we wrote “Mario Draghi, Collateral Scarcity, And Why The ECB Will Soon Buy Corporate Bonds.” 11 months later, the ECB confirmed this when for the first time ever, Mario Draghi said he would do purchase corporate bonds when he launched the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP), confirming that with government bond collateral evaporating and the liquidity situation getting precariously dangerous and forcing moments of historic volatility (as in the April/May 2015 Bund fiasco), he had run out of other options.

And while we have been covering this key development closely since its announcement more than a month ago, we were surprised by how little attention most of the sellside was paying to what is clearly a watershed moment in capital markets as a central banks now openly backstops corporate bond issuance (among other things pointing out a month ago Why The ECB Will Be Forced To Buy Junk Bonds Next). Ironically, the market was fully aware of what the ECB’s action meant as we showed in the “The ECB Effect: European Telecom Issues Largest Ever Junk Bond After More Than 100% Upsizing.”

Now, following the release of the full details of its corporate bond buying program, analysts are once again keenly focused on hits program who impact will be dramatic over the coming years.

First, as a reminder, here are the big picture details:

  • May buy in primary and secondary markets
  • Issue share limit of 70% per ISIN
  • Inclusion of bonds issued by insurance companies
  • Can buy bonds of companies incorporated in the euro area whose ultimate parent is not based in the euro area
  • Remaining maturity of 6 months and maximum of 30Y

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Moody’s Just Put Over Half A Trillion Dollars In Energy Debt On Downgrade Review

January 22, 2016

Moody’s Just Put Over Half A Trillion Dollars In Energy Debt On Downgrade Review

One week ago, in the aftermath of the dramatic downgrade to junk of Asian commodity giant Noble Group, we showed readers the list of potential “fallen angel” companies, those “investment “grade companies (such as Freeport McMoRan whose CDS trades at near-default levels) who are about to be badly junked, focusing on the 18 or so US energy companies that are about to lose their investment grade rating.

Perhaps inspired by this preview, earlier today Moody’s took the global energy sector to the woodshed, placing 175 global oil, gas and mining companies and groups on review for a downgrade due to a prolonged rout in global commodities prices that it says could remain depressed indefinitely.

The wholesale credit rating warning came alongside Moody’s cut to its oil price forecast deck. In 2016, it now expects the Brent and WTI to average $33 a barrel, a $10 drop for Brent and $7 for WTI.

Warning of possible downgrades for 120 energy companies, among which 69 public and private US corporations, the rating agency said there was a “substantial risk” of a slow recovery in oil that would compound the stress on oil and gas firms.

As first reported first by Reuters, the global review includes all major regions and ranges from the world’s top international oil and gas companies such as Royal Dutch Shell and France’s Total to 69 U.S. and 19 Canadian E&P and services firms. Notably absent, however, were the two top U.S. oil companies ExxonMobil and Chevron.

Moody’s said it was likely to conclude the review by the end of the first quarter which could include multiple-notch downgrades for some companies, particularly in North America, in other words, one of the biggest event risks toward the end of Q1 is a familiar one: unexpected announcements by the rating agencies, which will force banks to override their instructions by the Dallas Fed and proceed to boost their loss reserves dramatically.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Global Commodity Crash Tells Us That A Major Deflationary Financial Crisis Is Imminent

December 11, 2015

The Global Commodity Crash Tells Us That A Major Deflationary Financial Crisis Is Imminent

Global - Public DomainIf we really are plunging into a deflationary global financial crisis, we would expect to see commodity prices crash hard.  That happened just before the great stock market crash of 2008, and that is precisely what is happening once again right now.  On Thursday, the Bloomberg Commodity Index closed at 79.1544.  The last time that it closed this low was 16 years ago.  Not even during the worst moments of the last recession did it ever get so low.  Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is down more than 28 percent over the past 12 months, and it has plummeted by more than half since mid-2011.  As a result of this stunning commodity collapse, extremely large mining companies such as Anglo American are imploding, giant commodity trading firms such as Glencore and Trafigura are in full-blown crisis mode, and huge portions of the global financial system are in danger of utterly collapsing.

In recent days, I have been trying to stress that many of the exact same patterns that we witnessed just prior to the great stock market crash of 2008 are happening once again.  This includes the staggering crash of commodity prices that we are currently witnessing, and even CNN acknowledges that there are parallels to what we experienced seven years ago…

The last time raw materials like copper and oil were this cheap, an economic depression loomed just around the corner.

It’s no secret that commodities in general have had a horrendous 2015. A nasty combination of overflowing supply and soft demand has wreaked havoc on the industry.

But prices for everything from crude oil to industrial metals like aluminum, steel, copper, platinum, and palladium have collapsed even further in recent days.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“We’ve Seen this Before” – in 1999, then Stocks Crashed

November 29, 2015

“We’ve Seen this Before” – in 1999, then Stocks Crashed

“A lot of deterioration and decay under the hood”

The fourth quarter is normally a very strong quarter, and December exceptionaly strong in the global markets, says Christine Hughes, Chief Investment Strategist at OtterWood Capital. This quarter too, global markets are in the green after a powerful rally in October.

But for the year, the S&P 500 has been stagnating. Wthout the top 10 mega-cap stocks (which are up 14%), the index is actually down 6%. This spread between the top ten names and the rest of the index now amounts to 20%.

“We’ve seen this before,” Hughes says. Last time a spread of this magnitude occurred was in 1999. At that time, the rest of the market was strong. And it ended in a three-year crash. This time, the rest of the market is already weak. Then there’s Glencore, whose collapse would ricochet around the global credit markets and hit stock markets. So here’s Christine Hughes, charts and all:

Video by Christine Hughes, Chief Investment Strategist, OtterWood Capital.

This Is For The ‘Nothing Is Happening’ Crowd…

September 30, 2015

This Is For The ‘Nothing Is Happening’ Crowd…

Wake Up - Public DomainA lot of people out there expected something to happen in September that did not ultimately happen.  There were all kinds of wild theories floating around, and many of them had no basis in reality whatsoever.  But without a doubt, some very important things did happen in September.  As I warned about ahead of time, we are witnessing the most significant global financial meltdown since the end of 2008.  All of the largest stock markets in the world are crashing simultaneously, and so far the amount of wealth that has been wiped out worldwide is in excess of 5 trillion dollars.  In addition to stocks, junk bonds are also crashing, and Bank of America says that it is a “slow moving trainwreck that seems to be accelerating“.  Thanks to the commodity price crash, many of the largest commodity traders on the planet are now imploding.  I wrote about the death spiral that has gripped Glencore yesterday.  On Tuesday, the stock price of the largest commodity trader in Asia, the Noble Group, plummeted like a rock and commodity trading giant Trafigura appears to be in worse shapethan either Glencore or the Noble Group.  The total collapse of any of them could easily be a bigger event than the implosion of Lehman Brothers in 2008.  So I honestly do not understand the “nothing is happening” crowd.  It takes ignorance on an almost unbelievable level to try to claim that “nothing is happening” in the financial world right now.

Within the last 60 days, we have seen some things happen that we have never seen before.

For example, did you know that we witnessed the greatest intraday stock market crash in U.S. history on August 24th?

During that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged from a high of 16,459.75 to a low of 15,370.33 before rebounding substantially. That intraday point swing of 1,089 points was the largest in all of U.S. history.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Glencore The Next Lehman? The World’s Largest Commodities Trading Company Is Toast

September 29, 2015

Is Glencore The Next Lehman? The World’s Largest Commodities Trading Company Is Toast

Toast - Public DomainAre we about to witness the most important global financial event since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008?  Glencore has been known as the largest commodities trading company on the entire planet, and at one time it was ranked as the 10th biggest company in the world.  It is linked to trillions of dollars of derivatives trades globally, and if the firm were to implode it would be a financial disaster unlike anything that we have seen in Europe since the end of World War II.  Unfortunately, all signs are pointing to an inescapable death spiral for Glencore at this point.  The stock price was down nearly 30 percent on Monday, and overall Glencore stock has plunged nearly 80 percent since May.  There are certainly other candidates for “the next Lehman” (Petrobras and Deutsche Bank being two perfect examples), but Glencore has definitely surged to the front of the pack.  Right now many analysts are openly wondering if the firm will even be able to survive to the end of next month.

If you are not familiar with Glencore, the following is a pretty good summary of the commodity trading giant from Wikipedia…

Glencore plc is an Anglo–Swiss multinational commodity trading and mining company headquartered in Baar, Switzerland, with its registered office in Saint Helier, Jersey. The company was created through a merger of Glencore with Xstrata on 2 May 2013. As of 2014, it ranked tenth in the Fortune Global 500 list of the world’s largest companies. It is the world’s third-largest family business.

As Glencore International, the company was already one of the world’s leading integrated producers and marketers of commodities. It was the largest company in Switzerland and the world’s largest commodities trading company, with a 2010 global market share of 60 percent in the internationally tradeable zinc market, 50 percent in the internationally tradeable copper market, 9 percent in the internationally tradeable grain market and 3 percent in the internationally tradeable oil market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Commodity Carnage Continues Amid Fears Of Glencore Liquidation

September 28, 2015

Commodity Carnage Continues Amid Fears Of Glencore Liquidation

Despite a relatively unchanged US Dollar, commodities across the board are under significant (and seemingly coordinated) pressure this morning. It appears that the key selling began as Europe opened and the carnage in massive commodity group Glencore began to materialize. Glencore CDS is now above 700bps (up 154bps today) and stocks down almost 30% today…

Commodities being sold systemically despite a lack of FX-driven impact…

 

And even more worrying, Bank counterparty risk is re-soaring…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

It Starts: Broad Retaliation Against China in Currency War

August 20, 2015

It Starts: Broad Retaliation Against China in Currency War

The biggest global “tail risk” is China’s deteriorating economy and an emerging market debt crisis, according to BofA Merrill Lynch’s monthly poll of fund managers. And 48% of them were expecting the Fed to raise rates, despite languid growth and low inflation expectations.

Hot money is already fleeing emerging markets. Higher rates in the US will drain more capital out of countries that need it the most. It will pressure emerging market currencies and further increase the likelihood of a debt crisis in countries whose governments, banks, and corporations borrow in a currency other than their own.

This scenario would be bad enough for the emerging economies. But now China has devalued the yuan to stimulate its exports and thus its economy at the expense of others. And one thing has become clear today: these struggling economies that compete with China are going to protect their exports against Chinese encroachment.

Hence a currency war.

It didn’t help that oil plunged nearly 5% to a new 6-year low, with WTI at $40.55 a barrel, after the EIA’s report of an “unexpected” crude oil inventory buildup in the US,now, during driving season when inventories are supposed to decline!

And copper dropped to $5,000 per ton for the first time since the Financial Crisis, down 20% so far this year. Copper is the ultimate industrial metal. China, which accounts for 45% of global copper consumption, is the bull’s eye of all the fretting about demand. 5,000 is the line in the sand. A big scary number. Other metals fared similarly.

Copper powerhouse Glencore, whose shares plunged nearly 10% today, blamed“aggressive and synchronized large-scale short selling” for the copper debacle, instead of fundamentals. But fundamentals have been whacking copper for years, and shorts have simply been joyriding the trend.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Depression-Level Collapse In Demand: In Historic First, Glencore Shuts Coal Mines For 3 Weeks | Zero Hedge

November 15, 2014

Depression-Level Collapse In Demand: In Historic First, Glencore Shuts Coal Mines For 3 Weeks | Zero Hedge.

In a historic move showing just how profound the collapse in global commodity demand and trade is, earlier today the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Australia’s biggest coal exporter Glencore, which last year concluded its merger with miner Xstrata creating the world’s fourth largest mining company and world’s biggest commodity trader, will suspend its Australian coal business for three weeks “in a move never before seen in the Australian market, to avoid pumping tonnes into a heavily oversupplied market at depressed prices.” Putting this shocking move in context, it is something that was avoided even during the depths of the global depression in the aftermath of Lehman’s collapse, and takes place at a time when the punditry will have you believe that the US will decouple from the rest of the world and grow at 3% in the current quarter and in 2015.

“This is a considered management decision given the current oversupply situation and reduces the need to push incremental sales into an already weak pricing environment,” the company said.

For those who don’t recall some of the more paradoxical moves in the Australian commodity space in recent months, Glencore is not only the dominant coal exporter in the global coal market, but one which has continued to raise its thermal coal output in Australia and push its coal business towards a new production record this year, even as prices for the commodity crashed to five-year lows. Thermal coal is selling for about $65 a, about half of the $120 price from three years ago.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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