Greece Heads Back To The Polls: Full Sunday Election Preview
For months on end, all anyone could talk about was Greece. Throughout the spring and summer, the country’s fate in the eurozone was considered the main risk to global markets if not for what the financial fallout from a Grexit would be (that risk was largely confined to the public sector), then for what a Grexit would mean for the future of Europe’s fragile currency union.
Then, a funny thing happened. Everyone forgot about Greece.
On the heels of a final, dramatic showdown in Brussels that pitted PM Alexis Tsipras (who came in wielding a referendum “no” vote from his people) against German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and saw Greece finally capitulate after a weekend of “mental waterboarding,” the world seemingly accepted the fact that Athens will remain a debt serf for decades to come, and although the issues of debt relief and bank recapitalization remain contentious, it seems that a Greek exit is no longer on the table.
Late in August, Tsipras resigned, setting in motion a series of events which would lead to snap elections. Again, the news was greeted with little fanfare as, by that point, the market had turned its attention to China, its currency, its stock market, its economy, and how it would all factor into the Fed decision in September.
Well, as we head into the weekend (liftoff-less, still), it’s worth noting that Greece is having an election on Sunday, and although the outcome is unlikely to change the course of the bailout deal, black swans wouldn’t be black swans if they were easy to spot ahead of time and if the first half of the year taught us anything, it’s that “inconsequential” things like Greek politics actually do matter for markets, and it’s with those two considerations in mind, that we present Bloomberg’s four scenarios for the Greek election outcome.
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