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One day after Greek 2Y bond yields tumbled following press reports that for the first time in the latest Greek mini-crisis, the IMF and Eurozone creditors finally agreed on a “common stance” regarding what the Greek fiscal surplus and debt profile would look like, despite talks between Greece and its creditors ending in Brussels with no breakthrough, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras on Saturday warned the IMF and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble to “stop playing with fire” in handling his country’s debt.

Nonetheless, striking a positive tone, Tsipras opened a meeting of his Syriza party by saying he was confident a solution would be found, and urged a change of course from the IMF. “We expect as soon as possible that the IMF revise its forecast so that discussions can continue at the technical level”, AFP reported, suggesting that contrary to initial reports, the bid-ask between the Troika and Greece still remains irreconcilable .

Tsipras also attacked Greek nemesis Wolfgang Schauble – who earlier in the week ruled out a Greek debt cut, saying “for that Greece would have to exit the currency area”- and called for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to “encourage her finance minister to end his permanent aggressiveness” towards Greece.

As documented before, ongoing feuding with the IMF has raised fears of a new debt crisis. Greece, whose economic collapse is now worse than the US Great Depression – remains embroiled in a row with its eurozone paymasters and the IMF over debt relief and budget targets that has rattled markets and revived talk of its place in the euro.

A silver lining emerged on Friday, when Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said progress had been made in the Brussels talks with Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos and other EU and IMF officials. But he provided few details.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greece Slides Back Into Recession Amid Riots, Rewewed “Grexit” Calls

February 12, 2016

Greece Slides Back Into Recession Amid Riots, Rewewed “Grexit” Calls

It was just over a year ago that Greece elected Alexis Tsipras and Syriza amid a flurry of anti-austerity sentiment.

Things didn’t exactly go as planned.

The new PM and his “radical” finance minister Yanis Varoufakis thought they could shake things up in Brussels and wrench Greece from the clutches of Berlin-style fiscal rectitude. As it turns out, Wolfgang Schaeuble is not a man who is easily bested at the bargaining table and after more than six months of negotiations, the imposition of capital controls, a referendum on the euro that Tsipras promptly sold down the river, Greeks ended up facing an outright depression.

In the end, Varoufakis unceremoniously resigned and Tsipras agreed to a third bailout before calling for snap elections that would ultimately see the PM re-elected albeit at the helm of a party that was completely gutted by the arduous bailout talks.

As we and quite a few others warned, the new bailout and the attached terms would do exactly nothing to turn the Greek economy around. We’re all for being responsible with the budget but you can’t very well implement fiscal retrenchment during a depression unless you intend to remain in said depression in perpetuity, but alas, that’s exactly what Brussels forced Greece to do and on Friday we learn that the country has slipped back into recession.

GDP contracted 0.6% in Q4 after shrinking 1.4% in Q3. “With opposition mounting to the government’s pension reform plan, the European Union pressuring it to stem the tide of refugees entering the country and the global market rout hastening the sell-off in Greek assets, dark clouds are gathering again,” Bloomberg writes. Ironically, capital controls appear to have helped the economy perform better than expected:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Yanis Varoufakis Reveals – Berlin Blocked Greece From Chinese Funding During Crisis

January 21, 2016

Yanis Varoufakis Reveals – Berlin Blocked Greece From Chinese Funding During Crisis

Hundreds of millions of people throughout the Western world are being forced to admit an obvious, yet uncomfortable reality. Democracy is dead. Your vote and your voice doesn’t matter. Not at all.

No group of people understand this as intimately as the Greeks. They voted for one thing, got something else, and in the process were unceremoniously reminded of their political irrelevance.

– From the post: Greeks Flock to Grassroots Alternative Currencies in Affront to Euro Debt Slavery

Just in case you still had any doubts as relates to how slimy, nefarious and undemocratic the EU is, check out the following from Ekathimerini:

Yanis Varoufakis was instructed last year by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to put together a small team of people to draw up a plan for introducing a parallel currency if Greece was unable to reach an agreement with its lenders on a new bailout, the ex-finance minister said in a TV interview late Tuesday.

Speaking on Skai TV’s “Istories” (Stories) program, Varoufakis outlined what was known as Plan X. He said that a small team of about six people examined the various parameters surrounding a potential standoff that would lead to Greece being unable to meet its obligations. Among the issues examined by Varoufakis and his advisers were how the country would continue to have access to medicines, fuel and food under such circumstances.

Varoufakis said that he advised Tsipras to put the plan, which would see Greece defaulting on 27 billion euros in Greek government bonds held by the European Central Bank, into action as soon as he called a referendum at the end of June.

Varoufakis added that he was against efforts to secure funding from Russia but that there had been an agreement with China regarding investment in Greece, including in Greek bonds.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Social Explosion” Begins In Greece As Massive Street Protests Bring Economy To A Fresh Halt

November 12, 2015

“Social Explosion” Begins In Greece As Massive Street Protests Bring Economy To A Fresh Halt

One thing that became abundantly clear after Alexis Tsipras sold out the Greek referendum “no” back in the summer after a weekend of “mental waterboarding” in Brussels was that the public’s perception of the once “revolutionary” leader would never be the same. And make no mistake, that’s exactly what Berlin, Brussels, and the IMF wanted.

By turning the screws on the Greek banking sector and bringing the country to the brink of ruin, the troika indicated its willingness to “punish” recalcitrant politicians who pursue anti-austerity policies. On the one hand, countries have an obligation to pay back what they owe, but on the other, the subversion of the democratic process by using the purse string to effect political change is a rather disconcerting phenomenon and we expect we’ll see it again with regard to the Socialists in Portugal.

After a month of infighting within Syriza Tsipras did manage to consolidate the party and win a snap election but he’s not the man he was – or at least not outwardly. He’s obligated to still to the draconian terms of the bailout and that means he is a shadow of his former self ideologically. As we’ve said before, that doesn’t bode well for societal stability.

On Thursday, we get the first shot across the social upheaval bow as the same voters who once came out in force to champion Tsipras and Syriza are staging massive protests and walkouts. Here’s Bloomberg:

As Greek workers took to the streets in protest on Thursday, Alexis Tsipras was for the first time on the other side of the divide.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greek snap election: New Democracy concedes defeat to Tsipras’s leftist Syriza

September 21, 2015

Greek snap election: New Democracy concedes defeat to Tsipras’s leftist Syriza

Greek left-wing party Syriza has secured 145 seats in the country’s 300-member parliament and is set to form a ruling coalition with Independent Greeks after winning 35.5 percent of the vote. The leader of New Democracy, Syriza’s main rival, has conceded defeat.

“The electoral result appears to be concluding with Syriza and Mr Tspiras in the lead,” New Democracy leader Vangelis Meimarakis said. “I congratulate him and urge him to create the government which is needed and come to parliament.”

The conservatives themselves have secured 75 seats.

Syriza is still falling short of an outright majority, meaning it will need coalition partners to form a government. The party hopes to complete this task within three days.

Addressing cheering crowds in Athens, Tspiras said that “Greece and the Greek people are synonymous with resistance and dignity, and this struggle will be continued together for another four years.”

“We have difficulties ahead, but we are also on firm ground,” he added. “We won’t recover from the struggle by magic, but it can happen with hard work.”

Greece’s leftist Syriza party is most likely has turned to its former coalition partner – the right-wing Independent Greeks. The move will restore the state of affairs that brought Alexis Tsipras to power in the first place nine months ago.

Independent Greeks party responded on Sunday that they were ready to form a coalition government with election winners Syriza.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greece Heads Back To The Polls: Full Sunday Election Preview

September 18, 2015

Greece Heads Back To The Polls: Full Sunday Election Preview

For months on end, all anyone could talk about was Greece. Throughout the spring and summer, the country’s fate in the eurozone was considered the main risk to global markets if not for what the financial fallout from a Grexit would be (that risk was largely confined to the public sector), then for what a Grexit would mean for the future of Europe’s fragile currency union.

Then, a funny thing happened. Everyone forgot about Greece.

On the heels of a final, dramatic showdown in Brussels that pitted PM Alexis Tsipras (who came in wielding a referendum “no” vote from his people) against German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and saw Greece finally capitulate after a weekend of “mental waterboarding,” the world seemingly accepted the fact that Athens will remain a debt serf for decades to come, and although the issues of debt relief and bank recapitalization remain contentious, it seems that a Greek exit is no longer on the table.

Late in August, Tsipras resigned, setting in motion a series of events which would lead to snap elections. Again, the news was greeted with little fanfare as, by that point, the market had turned its attention to China, its currency, its stock market, its economy, and how it would all factor into the Fed decision in September.

Well, as we head into the weekend (liftoff-less, still), it’s worth noting that Greece is having an election on Sunday, and although the outcome is unlikely to change the course of the bailout deal, black swans wouldn’t be black swans if they were easy to spot ahead of time and if the first half of the year taught us anything, it’s that “inconsequential” things like Greek politics actually do matter for markets, and it’s with those two considerations in mind, that we present Bloomberg’s four scenarios for the Greek election outcome.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Whitewashing the IMF’s Destructive Role in Greece

August 31, 2015

Whitewashing the IMF’s Destructive Role in Greece

This autumn may see anti-austerity coalitions gain power in Portugal, Spain and Italy, while Marine le Pen’s National Front in France presses for outright withdrawal from the eurozone. These countries face a common problem: how to resist the economic devastation that the European Central Bank (ECB), European Council and IMF “troika” has inflicted on Greece and is now intending to do the same to southern Europe.

To resist the depression and debt deflation that the troika seeks to deepen, one needs to bear in mind the dynamics that make the IMF un-reformable. Its destructive role in Greece provides an object lesson for how southern Europe must shun its horde of ideologues, as Third World countries learned to avoid it by May 2013, the year that Turkey capped the world’s extrication from IMF “advice.” Already in 2008, Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced: “We cannot darken our future by bowing to the wishes of the IMF.”[1]Greek voters have now said the same thing.

To soften resistance to the IMF’s austerity demands, a public relations drive is being mounted to rehabilitate the myth that the Fund can act as an honest broker mediating between anti-labor finance ministers and the PIIGS – Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. On Friday, August 28, three Reuters reporters published a long “think piece” trying to show that the IMF is changing and that its head, Christine Lagarde, has seen the light and seeks to promote real debt relief.[2]

The timing of this report seems significant. The IMF got “back in business” in 2010 when its head, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, overrode its staff and many Board members in order to join the troika and shift the country’s bad debt from French and German bankers onto the Greek people. That is the story I tell in Killing the Host, whichCounterPunch published in an e-version last week. (The hard-printand Kindle versions are now available on Amazon.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greek Bank Stocks Crash Again Amid Fresh Signs Of Economic Disintegration

August 4, 2015

Greek Bank Stocks Crash Again Amid Fresh Signs Of Economic Disintegration

After trading limit-down on Monday when Greek stocks opened for trading for the first time since PM Alexis Tsipras called a referendum that would later prove to be a complete waste of time, shares of Greek banks once again flirted with the daily 30% loss limit on Tuesday as there were simply no bids for a set of institutions that everyone knows is insolvent.

The banks, which are only operational because the ECB has decided to keep the ELA liquidity drip on at least until the central bank sees whether or not Greece will be able to make a €3.2 billion bond payment on August 20, are in desperate need of recapitalization, and according to Brussels’ estimates, will need somewhere on the order of €25 billion to stabilize the system.

Of course that total effectively grows by the day, as the collapsing Greek economy (and we mean “collapsing” in the most literal sense of the word after yesterday’s astonishingly bad PMI print) takes its toll, driving up NPLs in a vicious circle wherein capital controls meant to stem the deposit outflow cripple the economy which in turn serves to further cripple the banks.

Speaking of this self-feeding loop, here’s Kathimerini with more on how the banking sector deep freeze has reverberated through the broader economy:

The state’s losses from indirect taxes alone in the first couple of weeks of capital controls and the shuttering of banks is more than half a billion euros, according to a study published on Monday by the Hellenic Confederation of Professionals, Craftsmen and Merchants (GSEVEE).

The drop in consumption in the first two weeks after June 28 amounted to 50 percent, or 3.8 billion euros, with corporate turnover falling 48 percent on average. This meant the state coffers missed out on 570 million euros in taxes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Something Revolutionary Is In The Air”: Grexit By “Insurrection” Is The “Most Probable” Outcome

July 21, 2015

“Something Revolutionary Is In The Air”: Grexit By “Insurrection” Is The “Most Probable” Outcome

A week ago, we said the following about the situation faced by Greek PM Alexis Tsipras when he and his new finance minister arrived in Brussels for the final round of bailout negotiations earlier this month:

…the entire world looked on in horror as Alexis Tsipras – who just days earlier secured a crucial referendum victory which by all accounts empowered him to ride into Brussels a conquering hero – was eviscerated by German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble and several like-minded EU finance ministers who smelled blood after Greece submitted a proposal that betrayed the Greek PM’s lack of conviction.

In short, Tsipras made a fatal error. In an act of alarming defiance, he boldly called for a referendum on creditors’ proposals, campaigned for a “no” vote, and then, once 61% of the Greek populace gave their leader a mandate to reject more austerity, he proceeded to resubmit the very same proposal Greeks had just voted against. That told EU officials that Tsipras had no intention of leveraging the referendum outcome and from there, the “mental waterboarding” was on.

Now, Greece is stuck with a deal that promises more of the same austerity measures that have so far served only to prolong an intractable recession and indeed, without some manner of debt relief or re-profiling, the new program has no chance of success.

Given all of this, it isn’t surprising that economists are once again beginning to talk about Grexit, and indeed, who can blame them? It’s difficult to take seriously the idea that the new “deal” has taken a Greek exit off the table when German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble still claims that a Greek exit from the EMU might be the country’s best chance at a “classic” haircut and economic recovery. Here’s Bloomberg with more on why Grexit is “back on the agenda”:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Banker Occupied Greece: Requiem for a Failed State

July 17, 2015

Banker Occupied Greece: Requiem for a Failed State

It’s all over but the obituary. Rubber-stamp Greek parliamentarians overwhelming approved transforming the nation into a banker run colony – by a 229 – 64 vote. Six lawmakers abstained.

Coalition partner Independent Greeks leader Panos Kammenos and likeminded party members voted “yes” after rhetorically rejecting Troika terms.

The vast majority of bailout funding goes to pay bankers and other creditors – nothing for economic recovery and growth. The price is deeper punishing austerity, greater poverty and unemployment than already, and far more human misery ahead with no end in sight.

Only 32 of SYRIZA’s 149 parliamentarians voted “no” – including banished Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, Finance Ministry Secretary General Manos Manousakis, Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafanzanis, Deputy Labor Minister Dimitris Stratoulis and ousted Speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou.

She called the bailout proposal “social genocide.” Other austerity opponents denounced it as “a new Versailles Treaty.”

Sovereign Greece no longer exists. Troika bandits own its soul. Democracy’s denouement became official in its birthplace.

Meanwhile, police clashed violently with thousands of anti-austerity protesters outside parliament demanding promised relief – social justice, not sellout.

Prime Minister Tsipras rubbed salt on the wound he inflicted saying he “does not believe in (the) irrational” capitulation plan he demanded and voted for.

He lied claiming he had no choice. Terms were forced on him, he said. Responsible leadership would have rejected them outright, walked away and stood tall ahead of being welcomed home as a national hero – challenging Troika bandits courageously, saying “no” when it matters most.

Instead he showed he’s like all the rest – pledging one thing, doing another, betraying his constituents in the process, proving he and likeminded SYRIZA officials are pretense populists, more contemptible than right-wing austerity supporters.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greece: Sound and Fury Signifying Much

July 16, 2015

Greece: Sound and Fury Signifying Much

All of Europe, and insouciant Americans and Canadians as well, are put on notice by Syriza’s surrender to the agents of the One Percent. The message from the collapse of Syriza is that the social welfare system throughout the West will be dismantled.

The Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has agreed to the One Percent’s looting of the Greek people of the advances in social welfare that the Greeks achieved in the post-World War II 20th century. Pensions and health care for the elderly are on the way out. The One Percent needs the money.

The protected Greek islands, ports, water companies, airports, the entire panoply of national patrimony, is to be sold to the One Percent. At bargain prices, of course, but the subsequent water bills will not be bargains.

This is the third round of austerity imposed on Greece, austerity that has required the complicity of the Greeks’ own governments. The austerity agreements serve as a cover for the looting of the Greek people literally of everything. The IMF is one member of the Troika that is imposing the austerity, despite the fact that the IMF’s economists have said that the austerity measures have proven to be a mistake. The Greek economy has been driven down by the austerity. Therefore, Greece’s indebtedness has increased as a burden. Each round of austerity makes the debt less payable.

But when the One Percent is looting, facts are of no interest. The austerity, that is the looting, has gone forward despite the fact that the IMF’s economists cannot justify it.

Greek democracy has proven itself to be impotent. The looting is going forward despite the vote one week ago by the Greek people rejecting it. So what we observe in Alexis Tsipras is an elected prime minister representing not the Greek people but the One Percent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Tsipras Stunner: Creditors Said “There Is No Point In Holding Elections” In Bailed Out Countries

July 15, 2015

Tsipras Stunner: Creditors Said “There Is No Point In Holding Elections” In Bailed Out Countries

While Germany’s finmin Schauble is about to burst at few capillaries after reading the latest provocation from Tsipras in which he said, according to Reuters, that:

GREEK PM TSIPRAS SAYS I SIGNED I DEAL I DO NOT BELIEVE IN BUT I’M WILLING TO IMPLEMENT AND WILL ASSUME RESPONSIBILITIES

It should be the Greek people that are reeling by another, even greater stunner, just spoken by the Greek PM during his TV interview: an admission from the chosen Greek “leader” that Greece, as a
sovereign nation, no longer exists:

GREEK PM TSIPRAS SAYS LENDERS GIVE A MESSAGE THAT IN COUNTRIES UNDER A BAILOUT THERE IS NO POINT IN HOLDING ELECTIONS

So the Troika makes it clear that countries under a bailout, such as a Greece was and is about to be indefinitely again, democracy is finished and the country becomes a sovereign ward of a few unelected bureaucrats, and the Greek “prime minister” who also just admitted he is now nothing but a puppet of Greece’s new unelected leaders, is Ok with this.

The good news, at least for those who seek to connect dots, is we can now close the book on what Schauble was talking about when he said “Aber glauben Sie mir, das Problem ist lösbar” in this 2011 interview with Welt am Sontag:

Schauble: “We decided to arrive at a political union via an economic and currency union. We had the hope – and we still have it today – that the Euro will gradually bring about political union. But we’re not there yet, and that’s one of the reasons why the markets are distrustful.

Welt am Sonntag: “So will the markets now force us into a political union?”

Schauble: “Most member states are not yet fully prepared to accept the necessary constraints on national sovereignty. But trust me the problem can be solved.”

At this point it is probably also worth repeating what Latvia’s outgoing president Berzins said two weeks ago:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Troika And The Five Families

July 14, 2015

The Troika And The Five Families

Personally, like most of you, I always thought Germany, besides all its other talents, good or bad, was a nation of solid calculus and accounting. Gründlichkeit. And that they knew a thing or two about psychology. But I stand corrected.

The Germans just made their biggest mistake in a long time (how about some 75 years) over the weekend. Now, when all you have to bring to a conversation slash negotiation is bullying and strong arming and brute force, that should perhaps not be overly surprising. But it’s a behemoth failure all by itself regardless.

First though, I want to switch to what Yanis Varoufakis told the New Statesman in an interview published today, because it’s crucial to what happened this weekend. Varoufakis talks about how he was pushing for a plan to introduce an alternative currency in Greece rather than giving in to the Troika. But Tsipras refused. And Yanis understands why:

“Varoufakis could not guarantee that a Grexit would work …

…[he] knows Tsipras has an obligation to “not let this country become a failed state”.

What this means is that Tsipras was told by the Troika behind closed doors, to put it crudely: “we’re going to kill your people”. He was made an offer he couldn’t refuse. And Tsipras could never take that upon himself, even though the deals now proposed will perhaps be worse in the medium to long term, even though it may cost him his career.

Criticism of the man is easy, but it all comes from people never put in that position. Varoufakis understands, and sort of hints he might have had second thoughts too if he were ever put in that position.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It Starts: Greeks Rebel Against Bailout, Risk Collapse

July 14, 2015

It Starts: Greeks Rebel Against Bailout, Risk Collapse

Greece’s union of civil servants, Adedly, called for a 24-hour strike on Wednesday, and for a series of demonstrations, the first one tonight at Syntagma Square, just below the Parliament, and another one on Wednesday evening, when Parliament is expected to vote on the new, even tougher, and immensely hated bailout package.

The union for local government employees, Poe-Ota, also called for a 24-hour strike on Wednesday, the AFP reported. Two other demonstrations against austerity and the “euro” are planned for Monday night, one organized via social networks, the other by Antarsya, an anti-euro party that didn’t make it into Parliament.

It would be the first strike against the leftwing Syriza coalition since it came to power six months ago. An ironic plot twist in this tragedy.

Syriza was the big force in the demonstrations against the two prior bailout packages, totaling €240 billion from taxpayers in other countries, conditioned on economic reforms pushed through Parliament by the conservative governments at the time. Now Syriza is looking at having to pass even tougher measures, including an increase in the Value Added Tax and pension reform, in return for only €86 billion in new money from taxpayers in other countries.

Syriza’s junior coalition partner, the Independent Greeks, is already getting cold feet.

“The agreement speaks of €50 billion worth of guarantees concerning public property, of changes to the law including the confiscation of homes… We cannot agree to that,”explained Panos Kammenos, the party’s leader, adding that the party would nevertheless remain in the coalition. With “confiscation of homes” he probably meant foreclosing on homes with defaulted mortgages.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is already struggling with strong dissent within Syriza. But ironically, the pro-euro opposition parties, those maligned creatures that ran the show before, may support him in getting these despised measures passed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greek Businesses Accept Lira, Lev As Grexit Looms

July 10, 2015

Greek Businesses Accept Lira, Lev As Grexit Looms

With the Greek drama headed into its final act and Alexis Tsipras stuck between an obstinate Germany and a recalcitrant Left Platform, many wonder if the introduction of an alternative currency in Greece is now a foregone conclusion.

Even if Athens and Brussels manage to strike a deal over the weekend, the country still faces an acute cash shortage and a severe credit crunch that threatens to create a scarcity of critical imported goods.

Amid the chaos, the Greek Drachma has made two mysterious appearances this week (see here and here), suggesting that the EU is on the verge of forcing the Greek economy into the adoption of a parallel currency andwhile this week’s Drachma “sightings” might properly be called anecdotal, a report from Kathimerini and comments from deposed FinMin Yanis Varoufakis suggest redenomination rumors are not entirely unfounded.

Now, with the ECB set to cut Greek banks off from the ELA lifeline on Monday morning in the absence of a deal, some businesses are mitigating the liquidity shortage by accepting foreign currency. FT has more:

Like many Bulgarians, Kostadin Dobrev, is a regular visitor to the beaches and bars of northern Greece. But this week, the holidaying firefighter immediately noticed things were different. First, the shops were half-empty. Then, even more surprising, he found Greek hotels and restaurants were happy to accept the Bulgarian lev.

As Europe’s politicians prepare for a weekend summit to decide whether Greece can stay in the eurozone, Mr Dobrev’s experience highlights how the old certainties are collapsing. By early next week Greeks could be preparing for life outside the euro and a possible return to the drachma.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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