6 Warning Signs That the Economy Is in Trouble
Look Out Below #1: Royal Dutch Shell reported its quarterly results last week—$3.4 billion, down from $5.1 billion for the same quarter a year ago—and warned that “today’s oil price downturn could last for several years.”
In anticipation of tough times, Shell slashed its 2015 capital expenditure budget by 20% and is going to lay off 6,500 high-paying jobs (not Burger King-type jobs) this year.
Look Out Below #2: UPS is a very good barometer of the consumer end of our economy: It’s the largest component of the Dow Jones Transportation Average both by sales and market valuation.
And UPS isn’t very confident about the US economy. Here is what UPS CEO David Abney said in a recent conference call with analysts:
If you just look at in [sic] January, the GDP forecast we thought was going to be about 3.1%. Now the thinking in July is about 2.3%, so let’s say a pretty significant decrease.
Why so glum?
The continued strength of the US dollar and I think this impending rate hike by the Fed appears to be holding back some US growth.
Abney has good reason to complain: UPS’s revenue fell 1.2% over the last 12 months. Not good.
Look Out Below #3: Rolls Royce may be best known for its luxury limousines, but the heart of its business is making engines for jet airplanes. Along with General Electric, the company dominates the aerospace engine business.
Business isn’t so good. Rolls Royce just issued its fourth profit warning in the last year and a half and is shutting down its $1.56 billion share buyback, introduced a year ago, to conserve cash.
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