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Tag Archives: mauldin economics
Survival of the Biggest
Survival of the Biggest Small Business Slaughter Triumph of Bigness Zombie Companies Small Business Startups Are Increasing Final Thoughts and Valuations The essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism we are dealing with an evolutionary process… At the heart of capitalism is creative destruction. …Situations emerge in the process of creative destruction […]
This Was All Predicted 10 Years Ago
This Was All Predicted 10 Years Ago In 2010, the scientific journal Nature published a collection of opinions looking ahead 10 years, i.e., where we are right now. Nature then published a short response from zoologist Peter Turchin in its February 2010 issue. Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent — and predictable — waves of political […]
Prelude to Crisis
Prelude to Crisis Simple ConceitRadical ActionsBallooning Balance SheetMerry Christmas and the Happiest New Year Ignoring problems rarely solves them. You need to deal with them—not just the effects, but the underlying causes, or else they usually get worse. The older you get, the more you know that is true in almost every area of life. […]
Corporate Debt Is At Risk Of A Flash Crash
Corporate Debt Is At Risk Of A Flash Crash The world is awash in debt. While some countries are more indebted than others, very few are in good shape. The entire world is roughly 225% leveraged to its economic output. Emerging markets are a bit less and advanced economies a little more. But regardless, everyone’s “real” […]
Japanified World Ahead
Japanified World Ahead Losing DecadesToo Much, Too FastA $10 Trillion Federal Reserve Balance SheetMastering Private MarketsLiving on Puerto Rico Time Regular readers may have noticed me slowly losing confidence in the economy. Your impression is correct and there’s a good reason for it, as I will explain today. The facts have changed so my conclusions […]
The Debt Train Will Crash
The Debt Train Will Crash Off the Tracks Woes to Come Growing Leverage Pension Problems We are approaching the end of the debt Train Wreck series. I’ve spent several weeks explaining why I think excessive debt is dragging the world economy toward an epic crash. The tracks ahead are clear for now but will not […]
Unfunded Promises
Unfunded Promises In describing the global debt train wreck these last few weeks, I’ve discovered a common problem. Many of us define “debt” way too narrowly. A debt occurs when you receive something now in exchange for a promise to give something back later. It doesn’t have to be cash. If you borrow your neighbor’s […]
The EMP Threat: How It Works and What It Means for the Korean Crisis
The EMP Threat: How It Works and What It Means for the Korean Crisis Before we begin with this week’s installment of This Week in Geopolitics, I want to draw your attention to the 2018 Strategic Investment Conference. Last year at the SIC, I said the United States would likely launch a pre-emptive attack on […]
Data-Dependent … on Imaginary Data
Data-Dependent … on Imaginary Data Invisible Derivatives Giant Mystery Zero Confidence Sonoma and the SIC in San Diego Federal Reserve officials like to say their policy course is “data-dependent.” That sounds very cautious and intelligent, but what does it actually mean? Which data and who’s interpreting it? Let’s ask a few questions. Photo: Federal Reserve […]
A Fly in the Economic Ointment?
A Fly in the Economic Ointment? Global Growth Cap Repeating History Flying Blind at 20X China Chills Sonoma and San Diego The holidays are fading from memory, and 2018 is off to a good start, economically speaking. Most of the forecasts I’ve read expect a good year – not a blockbuster year or a horrendous […]
The Next Crisis Will Reveal How Little Liquidity There Is
The Next Crisis Will Reveal How Little Liquidity There Is This is something I’ve been pondering for some time. I think the next crisis will reveal how little liquidity there is in the credit markets, especially in the high-yield, lower-rated space. Dodd–Frank has greatly limited the ability of banks to provide market-making opportunities and credit […]
The Pension Storm Is Coming To Europe—It May Be The End Of Europe As We Know It
The Pension Storm Is Coming To Europe—It May Be The End Of Europe As We Know It I’ve written a lot about US public pension funds lately. Many of them are underfunded and will never be able to pay workers the promised benefits—at least without dumping a huge and unwelcome bill on taxpayers. And since […]
Global Retirement Reality
Global Retirement Reality Global Shortfall UK Time Bomb Swiss Cheese Retirement Pay-As-You-Go Woes Lisbon, Denver, Lugano, and Hong Kong Today we’ll continue to size up the bull market in governmental promises. As we do so, keep an old trader’s slogan in mind: “That which cannot go on forever, won’t.” Or we could say it differently: […]
What Could Go Wrong? For Public Pensions, More Than You Know
What Could Go Wrong? For Public Pensions, More Than You Know Here’s a loaded question for you: “What could go wrong?” In some contexts, it can express mistaken confidence, as in, “Sure I’ll put my hand between that crocodile’s jaws. What could go wrong?” Investors should ask the same question before entering a position. “What […]
Americans Don’t Grasp The Magnitude Of The Looming Pension Tsunami That May Hit Us Within 10 Years
Americans Don’t Grasp The Magnitude Of The Looming Pension Tsunami That May Hit Us Within 10 Years Total unfunded liabilities in state and local pensions have roughly quintupled in the last decade. You read that right—not doubled, tripled, or quadrupled—quintupled. That’s nice when it happens on a slot machine, not so nice when it’s money you owe. […]
