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Weather 2022: New anomalies are growing in the Atmosphere and the Oceans, that will change the weather patterns as we head deeper into the year

January 10, 2022

Weather 2022: New anomalies are growing in the Atmosphere and the Oceans, that will change the weather patterns as we head deeper into the year

Major changes are coming in 2022 across the atmosphere and the oceans, creating different weather patterns into the second half of the year, and especially in the cold season later in the year. The changes will start slowly, but the main shift will start to occur during the 2022 warm season.

But what exactly is changing this year, and what weather patterns resulted from such changes in the past?

We will go on a weather journey through 2022, starting with a seasonal weather pattern forecast for late winter and early parts of the Spring. From there we will go into the atmosphere and the oceans, to observe what is changing already, and what is yet to come. You will see how and why these global changes occur, and what is going to be different in 2022, compared to the last few years.

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ENSO IN THE PACIFIC

We are starting off with the current weather conditions, brought on from the 2021 cold season. Winter is still ongoing and driven largely by a cold ENSO phase.

ENSO is short for “El Niño Southern Oscillation”. This is a large oceanic region in the tropical Pacific, that is regularly changing between warm and cold phases. It has a major impact on the tropical convection patterns (storms), pressure patterns, and thus on the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere.

We can observe large-scale pressure changes in the tropics as ENSO shifts between warm and cold phases. With some delay, these changes directly affect the circulation over the rest of the world.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Record Warmth In Plains, Midwest?; NYC To Top 60s This Week 

March 8, 2021

Record Warmth In Plains, Midwest?; NYC To Top 60s This Week 

About ten days ago, we penned a weather note to readers titled “”Early Spring, Winter Is Over?” – New Weather Models Suggest Warmer Weather Nears,” outlining how after a polar vortex split poured Arctic air into much of the US, wreaked havoc on power grids, but there was light at the end of the tunnel as the first half of March would expose much of the country to warmer weather trends.

Well, eight days into March and more than 100 million Americans across the Southwest, West Central, East Central, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast will experience warmer than average temperatures this week.

“The ridge of high pressure over the East will allow southerly winds to spread spring warmth northward and influence conditions for most areas east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, cooler than average temperatures will develop in the West, particularly in the Southwest,” according to The Weather Channel. 

The mild setup for this week is a relief from last month. Highs could be 10 to 25 degrees above average in the East, except for Florida, by Tuesday. By Wednesday, most parts of the Northeast could be in the 60s.

Here are some of the forecasted temperature highs this week for major metro areas. By mid-late week, NYC could be averaging in the mid-60s.

“High temperatures will be 20 to 35 degrees above average from the Northern and Central Plains into the Great Lakes region through Wednesday. Highs in the 60s and 70s are anticipated with 50s toward the Canadian border. Temperatures near 80 are even possible in parts of the Central Plains,’ The Weather Channel said. 

Temperature anomalies show the widespread warming that will affect more than 100 million people.

Could the US planting season begin earlier this year with warming trends?

NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas futures blew through the 2.70 support level.

The warmer weather is expected to last through Mar. 15, with slightly colder temperatures afterward. At this point, Americans will take any warm weather as the tail end of winter has been miserable. 

Olduvai: Excerpt read by author, Steve Bull

February 24, 2021

Olduvai: Excerpt read by author, Steve Bull

Fast Arctic melt could cost $70 trillion

April 29, 2019

Fast Arctic melt could cost $70 trillion

The rapid pace of the Arctic thaw may exact a very high price. Image: By Roxanne Desgagnés on Unsplash

Polar change, notably the fast Arctic melt, could impose huge costs on world economies. New evidence shows how rapidly the frozen north is changing.

LONDON, 26 April, 2019 – The northern reaches of the planet are undergoing very rapid change: the fast Arctic melt means the region is warming at twice the speed of the planetary average.

The loss of sea ice and land snow could tip the planet into a new and unprecedented cycle of climatic change and add yet another $70 trillion (£54 tn) to the estimated economic cost of global warming.

In yet another sombre statement of the challenge presented by climate change, driven by ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from the fossil fuels that power the global economy, British, European and US researchers took a look at two manifestations of warming.

One is the growing levels of ancient carbon now being released into the atmosphere as the Arctic permafrost begins to melt. The other is the reduced reflection of solar radiation back into space as what had once been an expanse of snow and ice melts, to expose ever greater areas of light-absorbing blue sea, dark rock and scrubby tundra.

Abrupt surprises

The concern is with what the scientists like to call “non-linear transitions”. The fear is not that global warming will simply get more pronounced as more snow and ice disappears. The fear is that at some point the melting will reach a threshold that could tip the planet into a new climate regime that would be irreversible, and for which there has been no parallel in human history.

And if so, the costs in terms of climate disruption, heat waves, rising sea levels, harvest failures, more violent storms and more devastating floods and so on could start to soar.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NOAA: July Was Hottest Month Ever Worldwide

August 22, 2015

NOAA: July Was Hottest Month Ever Worldwide

July was a scorcher, globally speaking. Last month was the warmest on record worldwide with many countries and the world’s oceans experiencing intense heat waves, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said today in a report.

The report found that “the July average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.46°F above the 20th century average.” And since July is “climatologically the warmest month for the year, this was also the all-time highest monthly temperature in the 1880–2015 record, at 61.86°F, surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.14°F.” It comes as no surprise that Arctic sea ice hasn’t fared well with all this warmth. The average Arctic sea ice extent was the eighth smallest since records began in 1979.

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Click on chart for larger view. Graphic credit: NOAA

 

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Click on chart for larger view. Graphic credit: NOAA

The report also found that it’s been the warmest January to July period on record, all but ensuring that 2015 will be the hottest year on record. “I would say [we’re] 99 percent certain that it’s going to be the warmest year on record,” Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with ERT, Inc., at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said during a press teleconference on Thursday.

Evidence of this record heat is everywhere you look. Thirteen of the last 15 years have been the warmest years on record. According to a Climate Central analysis, “the odds of that happening randomly without the boost of global warming was 1 in 27 million.” At EcoWatch we have covered extensively the heat waves hitting the globe in recent months. India and Pakistan both had heat waves that killed thousands of people and even melted the roads. Extreme weather has scorched the Middle East, Asia, Europe and the U.S. Earlier this month, the heat index in Iran hit 164°F, among the hottest temperatures ever endured by mankind.

 

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