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All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs December Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to October 2022.

U.S. October production increased by 69 kb/d to 12,381 kb/d to a New post pandemic high. It should be noted that September’s oil production increase of 289 kb/d to 12,268 kb/d which was reported last month and was considered high, was revised further up by 44 kb/d to 12,312 kb/d in the current October report. For September, the state with the largest increase was New Mexico 41 kb/d, along with a number of small increases from the smaller producing states.

While overall US oil production increased, a clearer indication of the health of US production can be gleaned by looking more closely at the Onshore L48 states. In the Onshore L48, October production increased by 69 kb/d to 10,104 kb/d. This means that 100% of the increase in US production came from the Onshore L48.

The blue graph, taken from the December 2022 STEO, is the production forecast for the U.S. from November 2022 to December 2023. Output for December 2023 is expected to be 12,614 kb/d, 34 kb/d higher than reported last month.

Note that production in October 2023 is forecast to be lower than in October 2022. The flatness in overall US output up to October 2023 is because the production increase in the Onshore L48 of 506 kb/d from December 2022 to December 2023 is offset by declining production in the GOM. See GOM chart further down.

The red OLS line from June 2020 to October 2022 indicates a monthly production increase of 53.2 kb/d/mth over that period. The first portion of red line stops at October because that is the range covered by the OLS analysis. The second portion is the same OLS line extended to see how well it fits the STEO forecast.

Oil Production Ranked by State

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Peak US Oil Production Looms as the Domestic Shale Boom Ends

December 24, 2022

Peak US Oil Production Looms as the Domestic Shale Boom Ends

After a decade of losing hundreds of billions of dollars, the shale oil industry is finally making money — and running out of oil.

It appears that the U.S. fracking boom is ending far earlier than many industry experts and CEOs predicted. After an understandable dip in 2020 due to the pandemic, oil production still has not regained the record levels achieved in 2019, and predictions that the industry would set new records this year have not materialized, despite 2022’s high oil prices.

In late 2018, DeSmog first raised the alarm about the reality that the U.S. shale industry was likely to hit peak production much sooner than most experts expected.

At the time and since, the oil industry has continually promised big things for the future of U.S. shale oil production.

Credit: U.S. Energy Information Administration

In 2017, Inside Energy reported that the governor of North Dakota was aiming to have the Bakken shale play produce 2 million barrels per day. In that same article an analyst for S&P Global Platts predicted that even in 2027 the Bakken would be producing 1.5 million barrels per day. The Bakken peaked at 1.5 million barrels per day in 2019 but has yet to return to that level.

Similarly, a 2019 article in industry publication oilprice.com noted that “there is a consensus in the market that the Permian Basin will be the dominant part of 2040 US oil supply.” In that article, industry analysts Rystad predicted the Permian could be producing 7.5 million barrels per day in 2040.

And in 2020, Rystad made optimistic predictions for the future of U.S. shale oil at its Energy 2020 Americas Virtual Annual Summit.

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Permian Pushes US December Oil Production to Post Pandemic High

December 3, 2022

Permian Pushes US December Oil Production to Post Pandemic High

All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs November Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to September 2022.

U.S. September production increased by 289 kb/d to 12,268 kb/d. It should be noted that August’s oil production was revised up by only 4 kb/d in the current September report. The large increase over the August update is real. For September, the states with the largest increase were Texas 90 kb/d, New Mexico 75 kb/d and North Dakota 43 kb/d. The Gulf of Mexico added 64 kb/d.

September’s production was at a new post pandemic high and crossed 12,000 kb/d. It is now 732 kb/d below the pre-pandemic high of 13,000 kb/d

While overall US oil production increased, a clearer indication of the health of US production can be gleaned by looking more closely at the Onshore L48 states. In the Onshore L48, September production increased by 208 kb/d to 9,989 kb/d. This means that 72% of the increase in US production came from the Onshore L48.

The blue graph, taken from the November 2022 STEO, is the production forecast for the U.S. from October 2022 to December 2023. Output for December 2023 is expected to be 12,580 kb/d.

The red OLS line from June 2020 to September 2022 indicates a monthly production increase of 50.5 kb/d/mth over that period. The first portion of red line stops at September because that is the range covered by the OLS analysis. The second portion is the same OLS line extended to see how well it fits the STEO forecast.

Oil Production Ranked by State

Listed above are the 10 states with the largest US production. These 10 accounted for 81.9% of all U.S. oil production out of a total production of 12,268 kb/d in September 2022.

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February Non-OPEC Oil Production Climbs

June 11, 2022

February Non-OPEC Oil Production Climbs

Below are a number of crude oil plus condensate (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to February 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

February Non-OPEC production increased by 303 kb/d to 49,926 kb/d. Of the 303 kb/d increase, the biggest increase came from Canada 225 kb/d. Offsetting the increase were decreases from Brazil 116 kb/d and China 92 kb/d. The Febuary 2022 output of 49,926 kb/d is 2,274 kb/d lower than the March pre-covid rate of 52,200 kb/d.

Using data from the June 2022 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the time period March 2022 to December 2023. (Red graph). Output is expected to reach 51,038 kb/d in December 2023. This is a 536 kb/d increase over the level reported in the previous report. Note the production drop of 848 kb/d to 48,947 kb/d in April in the red graph is associated with a production drop in the former Soviet Union.

Above are listed the world’s 11th largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table was that all of the countries produced more than 1,000 kb/d. The UK has been below 1,000 kb/d since January 2021.

In February 2022, these 11 countries produced 84.5% of the Non-OPEC oil. On a YoY basis, Non-OPEC production increased by 2,929 kb/d while on a MoM basis production, it increased by 303 kb/d. World YoY February output increased by 6,750 kb/d.

Production by Country

The EIA reported Brazil’s February production decreased by 116 kb/d to 2,917 kb/d. Brazil’s National Petroleum Association reported that April’s output increased by 18 kb/d to 2,999 kb/d, reversing February’s decline. (Red Markers).

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US April Oil Production Flat

July 5, 2021

US April Oil Production Flat

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. After the production charts, an analysis of three EIA monthly reports that project future production is provided. The charts below are updated to April 2021 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.

U.S. April production was essentially flat. It decreased by 19 kb/d to 11,169 kb/d from Marchʼs output of 11,188 kb/d. It was also 113 kb/d higher than January’s.

The June STEO report forecasted US April output would be 11,082 kb/d vs the reported actual output for April of 11,169 kb/d, an under estimate of 87 kb/d.

In the onshore lower 48, April production increased by 80 kb/d, red graph. The 99 kb/d difference between the US’ decrease and the On-shore L48’s increase was largely due to the 92 kb/d decrease from the GOM.

Ranking Production from US States

Listed above are the 10 states with the largest US production. These 10 accounted for 80.8% of US production out of a total production of 11,169 kb/d in April 2021.

On a MoM basis, the largest barrel increases came from Colorado, Texas and New Mexico. On a YoY basis, all states except New Mexico and Utah had a lower output than last year. Note also that New Mexico’s output surpassed North Dakota and moved into second place.

Production by State

Texas production increased by 28 kb/d in April to 4,791 kb/d. In the EIA’s June report, March’s output was revised up by 18 kb/d from 4,745 kb/d to 4,763 kb/d.

In April there were close to 194 oil rigs operation in Texas. By the fourth week of June 25, 201 were operating. From the end of April to the week of June 25, Texas added 7 oil rigs. It appears that the rate of adding rigs in Texas has slowed. See Rig chart in Section 4 further down.

April’s New Mexico production increased by 17 kb/d to 1,172 kb/d. April’s output is a new record.

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US March Oil Production Rebounds Strongly From Winter Storm Low

May 30, 2021

US March Oil Production Rebounds Strongly From Winter Storm Low

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. The charts below are updated to March 2021 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.

U.S. March production increased by 1,401 kb/d to 11,184 kb/d from Februaryʼs output of 9,783 kb/d and was also 128 kb/d higher than January’s. The increase was due to the rebound from the severe winter storm that hit the four US southern states, Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana and Oklahoma. Note that February’s output of 9,862 kb/d in the previous report was revised down by 79 kb/d to 9,783 kb/d in the current report.

The May STEO report forecasted US March output would be 10,939 kb/d vs the reported actual output for March of 11,184, an under estimate of 245 kb/d. Note that March output was 57 kb/d higher than January.

In the onshore lower 48, March production increased by 1,298 kb/d, red graph. The 103 kb/d difference between the two was largely due to the 107 kb/d increase from the GOM.

Ranking Production from US States

Listed above are the 10 states with the largest US production. These 10 accounted for (79.8%) of US production out of a total production of 11,184 kb/d in March 2021.

Of these 10 states, Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma had the biggest percentage output increases relative to February. On a YoY basis, all states except New Mexico had a lower output than last year. Note also that New Mexico surpassed North Dakota in output and moved into second place.

Rig additions continued in the US from the August low of 172 to 359 in the last week of May. Over the last month there is a hint of slowing in rig additions in Texas and the Permian.

Frac spreads continue to increase at an average rate of close to 15.1/mth.

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Ovi Bakken, Gulf of Mexico, Non-OPEC production, Texas, US Oil Production, peak oil barrel,

U.S. crude output to decline more than previously forecast in 2020 -EIA

December 8, 2020

U.S. crude output to decline more than previously forecast in 2020 -EIA

NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 910,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to 11.34 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, a steeper decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 860,000 bpd.

Output next year is expected to slide by 240,000 bpd to 11.10 million bpd, a smaller decline compared to the previous forecast for a slide of 290,000 bpd.

U.S. shale production has languished as oil prices collapsed after the coronavirus pandemic eroded global demand. But as hopes for a widespread rollout of a vaccine rise, U.S. crude oil production has recovered from the two-and-a-half-year lows touched in May.

Producers have begun to add drilling rigs and brought wells back online in response to the rebound in prices. [RIG/U]

Still, the EIA said that U.S. crude oil production will decline to less than 11 million bpd in March 2021 mostly because of falling production in the lower 48 states, where declining production rates at existing wells is expected to outpace production from newly drilled wells in the coming months.

The agency also expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to decline 2.38 million bpd to 18.16 million bpd in 2020, unchanged from its previous forecast.

In 2021, U.S. oil demand is expected to climb by 1.63 million bpd to 19.79 million bpd, a smaller increase than its previous estimate for a rise of 1.69 million bpd.

Global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels is expected to average 92.4 million bpd for all of 2020, which is down by 8.8 million bpd from 2019, before increasing by 5.8 million bpd in 2021, the EIA said.

U.S. Oil Production Has Already Passed Its Peak, Occidental Says

October 18, 2020

U.S. Oil Production Has Already Passed Its Peak, Occidental Says

“It’s just going to be too difficult to replace the 2 million barrels a day of production that we’ve lost, and then to further grow beyond that,” Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub said Wednesday at the Energy Intelligence Forum. “Over the next three to four years there’s going to be moderate restoration of production, but not at high growth.”

Occidental is one of the biggest producers in the U.S. shale industry, which added wells at such a rate prior to the spread of Covid-19 that the country became the world’s top crude producer, overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia, ushering in an era that President Donald Trump called “American energy dominance.”

U.S. oil production is stuck below it's pre-pandemic high

Shale’s debt-fueled expansion came to a juddering halt due to lower gasoline demand and oil prices, but also because of Wall Street’s increasing reluctance to fund growth at any cost. Shale operators are increasingly prioritizing cash flow and returns to investors over production growth.

Occidental, which vies with Chevron Corp. to be the biggest producer in the Permian Basin, has been forced to throttle back capital spending, lower growth targets and cut its dividend in a bid to save cash during the downturn. Its finances were already severely challenged by the debt taken on through its $37 billion purchase of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp. last year.

Hollub said global consumption stands at about 94 billion barrels a day, and it will take a Covid-19 vaccine before it returns to 100 million barrels. Due to cutbacks around the world, supply and demand for oil will likely balance again by the end of 2021, she said.

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IT’S ALL DOWNHILL FROM HERE: U.S. Oil Production Peak Already In The Rear-view Mirror

July 24, 2020

IT’S ALL DOWNHILL FROM HERE: U.S. Oil Production Peak Already In The Rear-view Mirror

It’s a shame that the drive for U.S Energy Independence only lasted for about a year. Even worse, U.S. Shale Oil Industry responsible for the country’s energy independence is now in serious trouble as the companies have cut drilling by 75% while they are drowning in debt up to the eyeballs. This is a “No-Win” scenario. So, watch over the next 3-6 months as the mighty U.S. Shale Industry begins to implode in glorious 3D-Technicolor.

Amazingly, if it weren’t for the 135,000 shale wells drilled since 2007, U.S. oil production would have remained virtually flat. Yes, that’s correct. Just about all the U.S. domestic oil production growth from 2007 to 2019 came from shale oil (tight oil). Even though there was oil production growth offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, it offset the declines in the states.

According to the EIA, U.S. Energy Information Agency, U.S. shale oil production increased from 500,000 barrels per day (bd) in December 2007 to 8.3 million barrels per day (mbd) in December 2019:

As we can see, the Rest of the U.S. net production only increased by 0.1 mbd since 2007 while shale oil increased 7.8 mbd. Unfortunately, with the U.S. shale oil industry annual decline rate at nearly 50% per year, at some point, the DRILLING HAMSTERS were going to run out of reserves. While this may have been 1-2 years away, the global pandemic pulled the rug from underneath the U.S. Shale Industry.

While I commend that tens of thousands of workers that helped bring on this much-needed oil production, a 50% annual decline rate is not a long-term sustainable business model. Well, unless the Federal Reserve can print more oil reserves. That I would like to see.

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Oil Market Heading For Months Of Deficit

June 6, 2020

Oil Market Heading For Months Of Deficit

The oil market is set for a deficit from August onwards, even after OPEC+ eases the current cuts that are up for a tentative extension through July, Rystad Energy analysts said on Friday.

Assuming that global demand recovery continues in the coming months, the oil market will still be in deficit even after the OPEC+ group relaxes the current cuts from 9.7 million bpd to 7.7 million bpd, as currently planned, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen, said, as carried by Oilfield Technology.

“That will ensure a fundamental support for prices, while also spurring a quicker reactivation of curtailed US oil production, and eventually frac crews ending their holidays early,” Tonhaugen said in a note.

“Indications show that a bit more than 300 000 bpd from shut US production is actually coming back online already from June as a result of the current price levels,” he said.

Some U.S. producers have already restarted some curtailed production as prices have rallied in recent weeks and as they need the cash from operations, regardless of how little.

The market deficit coming this summer, however, doesn’t mean that there will be a global oil supply crunch, because inventories and floating storage have yet to begin depleting.

“So, even if demand exceeds supply for a while, that does not mean that we really have a problem to source oil. Oil is there, lots of it, waiting to be drawn from storage facilities,” Rystad Energy’s Tonhaugen said.

Improving global oil demand and faster-than-expected production curtailments from outside the OPEC+ pact are set to push the oil market into deficit in June, according to Goldman Sachs. Yet, there is little room for an oil price rally in the near term because of the still sizeable oversupply of crude oil and refined products, Goldman Sachs said in a note in the middle of May.

Earlier this week, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he expected a shortage in the oil market in July.

US May Pay Shale Drillers Billions To Leave Oil In The Ground

April 15, 2020

US May Pay Shale Drillers Billions To Leave Oil In The Ground

If one listened to the US president, or any other member of OPEC+ in the past few days, this weekend’s history production cut deal (which we said was not nearly enough to offset the plunge in global demand), would have been sufficient to push the price of oil by $10/per barrel or more. Instead, after spiking last Thursday as high as $36 as triggerhappy algos were fooled by OPEC+ jawboning, Brent is down as much as 25% in the past 4 days.

Meanwhile, realizing that the US has become ground zero for excess oil production, and is unwilling – or unable – to cut output, thus shooting itself in the foot, on Tuesday Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, argued that Texas can lead in producing a “real” U.S. oil production cut to save the shale industry, and called for the state to take action to force companies to hold back their production for the first time since 1973.

Alas, with billions of junk bonds at stake and a lot of private equity vested interests assuring that the “spice flows” that is unlikely to happen. So on Wednesday, with US producers seemingly at an impasse and with Trump terrified that a wave of Texas defaults could doom his reelection chances as millions of shale workers are out of a job, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration was considering paying U.S. oil producers to leave crude in the ground to help alleviate a glut that has caused prices to plummet and pushed some drillers into bankruptcy.

According to the report, the Energy Department has drafted a plan to compensate companies for sitting on as much as 365 million barrels worth of oil reserves and counting it as part of the U.S. government’s emergency stockpile. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose fractionally, about 20 cents to $20.42, on the news.

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US January Production Drops Again

April 14, 2020

US January Production Drops Again

Preparing this March post has been a surrealistic exercise. Here I am providing a January US production update when at a time, January, the world had no clue that it was going to be hit with a double Black Swan event in early March . There was a hint in January on the coming pandemic for those who were listening. However, there was no clue of the Shock and Awe attack that would be launched by SA after Putin and his Oily Oligarch friend Sechin made the wrong move in the world’s Oil Chess Game. Russia thought that they had SA in Check, instead Russia and the rest of world were End Played. Now, a way must be found out of this mess. Reports are circulating that Trump and Putin have been talking and that an OPEC + meeting will be convened shortly. Let’s hope adult’s come to the table.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that the world will need lower oil prices to come out of the current economic slowdown. The question is, if an agreement can be brokered between US, Russia and OPEC, “What will be the right price for oil for both the producers and the economy?

The irony here is that Trump will be holding meetings with oil company executives shortly to see how the US can help. In the meantime the NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act) bill keeps circulating within Congress. Interesting how the world, US positions and thinking, can be flipped upside down over night.

All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly. At the end, an analysis of a three different EIA reports is provided.

The charts below are updated to January 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (Production > 100 kb/d).

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The Warning Signs Are Flashing for U.S. Shale

October 18, 2019

The Warning Signs Are Flashing for U.S. Shale

U.S. oil production growth has slammed on the breaks, as low prices and the loss of access to capital markets has forced a slowdown in drilling.

Third quarter earnings reports will soon start to trickle in. Three months ago, the shale industry saw improvement in some of the headline cash flow figures, but the second quarter results also revealed some deeper concerns about drilling operations and raised questions about the longevity of an unprofitable oil boom.

The problem for the shale industry is that, if anything, the outlook has only become gloomier since. Oil prices have languished and investors have grown more skeptical.

Ahead of third quarter earnings, some analysts downgraded several prominent shale drillers.

Imperial Capital analyst Irene Haas issued a double downgrade this week to Extraction Oil & Gas, a Colorado shale driller. Imperial Capital cut the company’s outlook to Underperform from Outperform, and lowered its price target to just $2 per share from $7. Extraction saw its share price plunge by 9 percent at one point during trading on Thursday before recovering some losses.

Irene Haas says that Extraction’s production is likely to be flat during the third quarter due to unplanned outages on the Western Gas system. More importantly, Haas says that Extraction’s business model is “fundamentally more risky, compared to other DJ Basin peers.” Haas also raised concerns about Extraction’s near-term fortunes, noting that the company “might not be equipped to weather additional commodity prices downdraft or operational upsets, planned or unplanned.”

Meanwhile, SunTrust cut Concho Resources to Hold from Buy, pointing to the company’s efforts to rein in “inflated well costs.” The move also comes in the wake of Concho’s high-profile announcement over the summer, in which it admitted that its densely-packed 23-well “Dominator” project produced poor results.

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Is US Shale Cannibalizing Itself?

July 9, 2019

Is US Shale Cannibalizing Itself?

U.S. oil production continues to grow, but the shale industry is in the midst of a deceleration as low oil prices and a financial squeeze slow the pace of drilling.

The U.S. added 246,000 bpd of fresh supply in April, the latest month for which data solid is available. That put to rest concerns that the industry was in the midst of contraction, after production fell in January and February (some of which was due to offshore maintenance). Even as the rig count continues to fall, production grinds higher.

The EIA expects output to grow by another 70,000 bpd in July, with the Permian alone adding 55,000 bpd.

But the rate of growth is slowing. In April, production was up 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) compared to the same month a year earlier. By any measure, that is a massive increase. But it is down sharply from the nearly 2.1 mb/d year-on-year increase seen in August 2018, which looks set to be the peak in terms of the pace of growth.

U.S. oil production is not in danger of outright decline, not for the foreseeable future. But growth is clearly slowing. The U.S. could add 1.3 mb/d of new supply this year, according to an average of forecasts from multiple analysts, compiled by Reuters. That figure would be down from 1.5 mb/d of additional supply that came online in 2018. Related: Another Beneficiary Of The OPEC Deal Emerges

Financial stress is spreading, and top industry executives in Texas are arguably at their gloomiest in years. Consolidation and bankruptcies could pick up pace in the next few months, a bankruptcy attorney told Reuters.

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Sharp Rise In Rig Count Pressures Oil Prices

April 6, 2019

Sharp Rise In Rig Count Pressures Oil Prices

The the number of active oil and gas rigs rose by 19 after two weeks of big losses in the United States this week according to Baker Hughes, in a sign that US production is still set for increases.

The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs rose by 20 rigs according to the report with the number of active oil rigs gaining 15 to reach 831 and the number of gas rigs gaining 4 to reach 194.

The oil and gas rig count is now just 22 up from this time last year, with oil seeing just a 23-rig increase year on year, gas rigs holding flat, and miscellaneous rigs seeing a 1-rig decrease for the year.

Oil prices were trading up earlier on Friday leading up to the data release as early figures came in for OPEC’s March oil production from S&P Platts, which showed that its oil production had fallen by 570,000 barrels per day from February levels as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia saw steep declines in production levels.

WTI was trading up $0.49 (+0.79%) at $62.59—well above the psychologically important $60 per barrel mark. The Brent benchmark was trading up $0.48 (+0.69%) at $69.88 at 12:18pm EST, after easing off the $70 per barrel mark earlier this week. Prices for both represent a significant gain week on week. Related: Is This The End Of Colorado’s Shale Boom?

Despite the drop off in the number of active rigs, US crude oil production for week ending March 29 was 12.2 million barrels—another new all-time high.

Unlike in the United States, Canada saw a decline in the number of active rigs this week.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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