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The Geopolitical Implications Of Renewable Energy

The Geopolitical Implications Of Renewable Energy

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An October report from BlackRock (BLK)—the world’s largest publicly traded investment management firm—wisely states, “markets are calm but geopolitics are anything but.”

Wind and solar energy—two leading renewable energy options—could possibly become a dangerous part of an energy mix as the world continues on a downward geopolitical slope.

Both are intermittent and unreliable, and can only produce consistent energy under certain weather parameters, and neither, at this time, can be stored at scale. Renewable energy options are also tough on the environment because wind and solar energy requires large amounts of land compared to conventional, reliable fossil fuel energy.

However, renewables are consistently publicized as growing faster than fossil fuels, but that’s misleading. Unless hydroelectricity is being produced under a controlled scenario with dammed water then renewable energy is inferior to coal, nuclear and natural gas powered electricity.

While renewables don’t emit carbon dioxide, they may not, unfortunately, be the solution to lower emissions. This is where renewables can create a dangerous geopolitical climate for nations pursuing them wholeheartedly.

A new paper by the Center of the American Experiment, “Energy Policy in Minnesota the High Cost of Failure,” chronicles Minnesota’s $15 billion experiment with wind energy over traditional fossil fuels, which didn’t lower CO2 emissions and caused Minnesota’s price of electricity to rise above the national average for the first time on record.

Imagine this on a larger scale. Think Africa—where 635 million citizens are without any form of modern energy at this time. This lack of scalable, affordable energy that fossil fuels and nuclear energy provide can be construed as a direct correlation for the inherent instability of Africa, its lower economic growth, higher rates of overpopulation and lacking the wherewithal to combat radicalization by groups like ISIS throughout the continent.

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The Future of Geopolitics and Energy Markets

The Future of Geopolitics and Energy Markets

SolarPanels, cc Flickr Oregon Department of Transportation, modfiied, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Energy prices and geopolitics have been interconnected since the beginning of the twentieth century, but expanded globalization, increased industrialization, and booming fossil fuel supplies have made this relationship increasingly brittle.

The political actions of energy-producing states such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, and the United States impact energy prices. Conversely, energy prices affect the geopolitical actions of energy-producing states, as well as global consumers like China and India.  The dramatic fluctuations in the energy sector are rewriting the relationship between geopolitics and investments. A pragmatic understanding of these two separate components is essential to navigating national security and understanding financial markets related to fossil fuels.  More than ever before, an understanding of geopolitics is critical to making profitable oil and gas investments.

For example, as a result of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the Iranian nuclear agreement spearheaded by the United States – Saudi Arabia has declared war on US oil and gas production.  The shale revolution now directly affects how Saudi Arabia reacts to US policies regarding Iran, as the Saudi oil minister has repeatedly spoken about being at war with U.S. shale. The Saudi decision to liquefy oil prices was a conscious effort, as Saudi national and economic security was threatened by improved Iranian relations with the West, and the resulting influx of Iranian oil in the marketplace.

The remissive and reluctant attitude of European states towards Russian aggression in Ukraine, such as the 2014 invasion of Crimea, is a direct result of European – namely German – dependence on Russian oil and natural gas. As the decades-old ban on US natural gas exports has been lifted, Europe is more likely to be freed from Russian attempts to use oil and natural gas as a geopolitical weapon.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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