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Teranet: Canadian Real Estate Prices Drop Most In 7 Years, Led By Toronto

Teranet: Canadian Real Estate Prices Drop Most In 7 Years, Led By Toronto

Teranet Shows Canadian Real Estate Drops Most In 7 Years, Led By Toronto

Canadian real estate prices may be softening. Numbers from Teranet show that home prices generally declined across the country in September. This decline is led by a drop in prices around the Greater Toronto Area, extending through the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Although not all markets saw decline. Vancouver is once again leading the 11 city composite index in monthly price gains.

Who The F**K Is Teranet, And Why Should I Care?

Teranet is a land registry behemoth that operates, amongst other things, the land registries in Ontario and Manitoba. They build a Home Price Index with National Bank of Canada, that uses land registry data to compare how prices on the exact same house evolve over time. That is, they only use homes that have been sold more than once. This is known as a “sales pair” analysis, and is the kind of the stuff common in the US.

One of the the things they produce is an index for 11 cities, which they combine in an urban index. It’s debatable if it’s more or less accurate than CREA’s urban index. However, if you’re into national housing stats – you should be checking out both.

Canadian Real Estate Prices See Largest Drop Since September 2010

The Teranet National Composite House Price Index fell in September. The index experienced a 0.8% drop when compared to the month before. National Bank of Canada analysts noted this is the largest drop since September 2010. This is also the first time the 11 city composite has dropped since January 2016. While a single  drop isn’t a huge concern, the first after a long trend should be noted.

 

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Magnificent Housing Bubble Unravels in Much of Canada

Magnificent Housing Bubble Unravels in Much of Canada

Canada’s housing bubble, which has been so much more magnificent than anything the US was ever able to conjure up, notched another gain in March, according to the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, which rose 0.3% for the month. Prices were up in eight of the metropolitan markets and down in three, the broadest diffusion in seven months. Year over year, the index rose 4.7% to a new all-time record.

Since 2000, home prices have jumped 140% in the survey’s 11 metropolitan markets. A number of years charted double-digit gains before the Financial Crisis and right afterwards. Before the Financial Crisis, Canada’s home prices had largely followed the US run-up. But when US housing went into a terrific tailspin, Canada’s home prices just dipped about 8% before re-soaring, fired up by easy money, a resource boom that has now crashed, and in certain metropolitan markets an influx of flush and motivated foreign buyers.

Home prices are now 26% higher than they were at the already crazy peak in 2008. The chart of the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index is what areal housing bubble looks like. Note the now puny dip during the Financial Crisis:

Canada-house-price-index-2015-04

But it wasn’t spread evenly. In some metro areas, home prices are still skyrocketing. In others, they’ve never moved much beyond the prior bubble. And in other areas again, once booming, home prices have already started to deflate.

 

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‘Corrections In Progress’ In Most Canadian Housing Markets: Teranet

‘Corrections In Progress’ In Most Canadian Housing Markets: Teranet

House prices fell in February in eight of 11 major housing markets measured by the Teranet/National Bank House Price Index.

“In some markets there have clearly been corrections in progress,” National Bank senior economist Marc Pinsonneault said in a statement.

“The monthly retreat in Calgary was the fourth in a row, for a cumulative decline of 2.3 per cent. In Winnipeg it was the fourth in five months, for a cumulative decline [of] 3 per cent.”

 

Prices fell 0.11 per cent in Toronto, but are still up 7.3 per cent from a year ago. Vancouver was one of the three cities to buck the trend, with prices up 1.46 per cent in February (an annual pace of around 18 per cent), and up 2.7 per cent from a year ago. Victoria and Hamilton are the other two cities seeing house price gains.

East of Toronto things look somewhat worse. Ottawa-Gatineau clocked the fastest decline in house prices in February, with house prices falling more than 2 per cent in February — an annual pace of some 24 per cent.

One aspect to note is that house price declines in Alberta’s cities were no worse than declines in other parts of the country, contrary to the sharper correction some economists had been calling for in the oil-exporting province.

The overall 11-city index was flat for the month. But thanks mostly to strength in house prices last year, prices in the 11 cities are still up by 4.4 per cent from a year ago.

This is where house prices are rising and falling across Canada.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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