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Saudis, Russians Consider Pausing Oil Production Increases In Retaliation To Biden SPR Release

Saudis, Russians Consider Pausing Oil Production Increases In Retaliation To Biden SPR Release

When commenting on yesterday’s SPR release announcement by the Biden admin and several assorted hanger-on nations – which has backfired spectacularly sending the price of oil soaring now that the rumor can no longer be sold so the news has to be bought in line with every single SPR release in the past…

… we said that not only was the release far to smmal, but that in retaliation for the SPR release, “OPEC could easily consider halting its production hikes to offset the detrimental SPR impact of lower oil prices on the needed recovery in global oil capex, likely justifying such action as prudent in the face of COVID demand risks.

Well, fast forward just a few hours when moments ago the WSJ reported that the leaders of OPEC+ and the world’s two top oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia, are considering a pause to their recent efforts to provide the world with more crude, citing to people familiar with those discussions. The move, as expected, is in retaliation to Washington releasing tens of millions of barrels of oil in an effort to lower prices.

As a reminder, OPEC+ is meeting next week to review the long-term deal they reached earlier this year to boost their collective oil output – the deal involves boosting output by 400,000 barrels a day each month through next year, until the group hits its pre-pandemic pumping level and follows a sharp cut in output in 2020 as demand evaporated amid Covid-19 lockdowns.

However, it now appears that OPEC+ may change its mind and not raise output at all; and while Biden is quick to note that oil prices have hovered near multiyear highs, OPEC and other forecasting agencies have struggled to predict demand amid the on-again-off-again nature of Covid-19 restrictions…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Biden Asks The World For Help Easing The Global Energy Crisis

Biden Asks The World For Help Easing The Global Energy Crisis

  • Oil prices have fallen below a key psychological barrier on news that Biden is trying to persuade a number of countries to release crude from their Strategic Petroleum Reserves.
  • Biden’s highly unusual move comes just months after he made another request to OPEC+ to boost production so as to tame the oil price rally, and was once again denied.
  • U.S. gas prices have surged 60% since the beginning of the year, with prices in California hitting all-time highs, pitting Democrats against the administration.

Oil prices have dipped to their lowest levels in six weeks, with both Brent and WTI dropping below the psychologically important $80 per barrel mark for the first time in weeks. Brent was quoted at $79.67/barrel in Friday’s intraday session, with WTI trading at $77.65 as talk of several countries releasing crude from their strategic reserves continued to gain momentum. According to Reuters, the Biden administration has reached out to several countries, including China, India, South Korea, and Japan, urging them to synchronize the release of crude from their Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) in a bid to lower global energy prices.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, European gas prices have recovered from their intra-week lows as indications of Russian supply flows remained disappointingly low.

According to the Financial Times, whereas Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) started adding some gas to its largest storage sites in Germany and Austria last weekend, Russia has failed to book additional pipeline capacity, suggesting that any storage fill would come from existing flows.

Russia has done what it said it was going to do, but in a very narrow way. What would get a bigger reaction from the market would be if Gazprom went back to auctioning short-term gas supplies, as they have done in previous years,” Laurent Ruseckas at IHS Markit tells FT.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

White House Debates Immediate, ‘Radical’ Action To Lower US Energy Prices

White House Debates Immediate, ‘Radical’ Action To Lower US Energy Prices

The Biden administration is actively debating whether to immediately intervene to lower US energy prices, rather than letting markets ride and hope they settle, as the ‘most popular president in history’ grapples with soaring inflation amid trade and foreign policy matters, according to Bloomberg.

A pipeline carries oil at the US strategic petroleum reserve facility known as Big Hill near Beaumont, TX

While White House aides have reportedly been lobbying to release the nation’s Strategic Petroleum reserve – or even halting oil exports, several Energy Department officials have pushed back.

For several weeks, a small group of top Biden aides has discussed measures to bring down the cost of gasoline, according to people familiar with the matter. Consensus has so far been elusive, with some Energy Department officials pushing back against tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve while White House aides lobby for a release, or the even more radical step of halting oil exports, the people said.

With gasoline at a seven-year high and the US consumer price index hitting a multi-decade high this week, the Biden administration is stuck between trying to boost fuel production to bring down costs, while showing the world how ‘green’ his administration is while the UN climate conference in Glasgow winds down.

“It’s decision time for the Biden administration,” according to Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official under President George W. Bush.

Those running the show include White House Chief of Staff ‘President’ Ron Klain, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, head of the National Economic Council Brian Deese, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and her deputy, David Turk, and finally, energy expert Amos Hochstein who was hired earlier this year to work at the State Department.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Trump’s Ultimate Move To Lower Gasoline Prices

Trump’s Ultimate Move To Lower Gasoline Prices

Trump

President Trump is reportedly considering tapping the strategic petroleum reserve to lower gasoline prices in an effort to neuter a political threat ahead of key midterm elections in November.

Sources told Bloomberg that options are under consideration by the Trump administration, ranging from a minor 5-million-barrel test sale, a symbolic amount, to a more sizable release of 30 million barrels. A more aggressive option could entail a larger release, combined with coordinated stockpile releases from other countries. No decisions have been made.

“An SPR release would have a psychological impact on the market. It may not translate into lower gasoline prices, but it would immediately bring down crude prices, at least temporarily, until the market adjusts,” Joe McMonigle, senior energy analyst at Hedgeye Risk Management LLC, told Bloomberg.

“It’s unclear whether the U.S. will actually use the emergency inventories, but we can at least tell that they feel a lot of pressure from crude trading above $70,” Ahn Yea Ha, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities Co., said in a Bloomberg interview.

National gasoline prices are hovering just below $3 per gallon, the highest price in more than three years. However, the rally in crude oil prices has stalled and reversed over the past week, with Libya in the process of restoring the 800,000 bpd that had been disrupted. News of Libyan oil trickling back online led to a sharp selloff in crude prices last week.

Monday saw another steep decline in prices, and WTI is back below $70 per barrel. Saudi Arabia said that it would expand its production, offering more volumes to Asian buyers. Russia’s energy minister also said that the OPEC+ coalition could add more than the 1 million barrels per day that they agreed to in June, if needed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Satellite Imagery Reveals China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve Is Vastly Greater Than Disclosed

Satellite Imagery Reveals China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve Is Vastly Greater Than Disclosed

At the end of August, we did a follow up article on what we believe is a far bigger marginal driver to the price of oil than OPEC production (which may or may not be reduced by up to 750kbpd in November), namely the Strategic Petroleum Reserve of China, a major importer of oil in recent years, along with India, taking advantage of low prices and largely supporting global oil demand growth at a time of rampant oversupply, and which we profiled most recently in “A Chinese “Mystery” Has Become The Biggest Wildcard For The Price Of Oil.”

The simplest reason why Chiina’s SPR capacity (and storage) is of key importance, is that it determines the ongoing demand China has for oil – of which much ends up in storage –  and also allows analysts to calculate how much more oil China would need, in order to fill up its SPR. While China has traditionally kept any data about its SPR inventory as opaque as possible, in a rare release this month, Beijing reported adding about 43 million barrels of crude to its strategic reserves between mid-2015 and early this year. Reserves totaled 31.97 million tons in early 2016, equivalent to about 234 million barrels, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement that was the first government update on reserves since December.

 


A guard stands before the oil SPR tanks at Zhoushan

As Bloomberg confirmed, emergency stockpiles of the second-biggest oil user have been a source of speculation among analysts and traders, who rely on customs figures and infrequent construction updates to estimate how much of the country’s imports go into strategic inventories, and for how long they will continue to fill.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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