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Since my last video update, the silver price has consolidated to a lower level. While I wasn’t surprised to see silver continue to correct, I do believe its only temporary before it begins a new leg higher. And, if we look at the COT Report for silver, there are some positive signs going forward.

But, before I provide a preview on my newest video update, Silver Price Update & End Of A Silver Mining Era, I wanted to clarify my position on “technical analysis.” There seems to be a large group of precious metals investors that have a negative KNEE-JERK reaction when I post some charts on technical analysis, stated several reasons why it’s a waste of time to do it when the market is rigged or controlled by the bullion banks (JP Morgan), the Fed and central banks.

While new and long-term followers are free to post any comments they desire about the pros or cons of technical analysis, my reason for doing so is to show what TRADERS ARE LOOKING AT and what they expect going forward. Traders, hedge funds and large institutions all study and follow technical analysis. Right now, they are the leading drivers of the silver price.

However, technical analysis patterns will not provide the ultimate FUNDAMENTAL VALUE for silver when the Fed and Central Banks lose control of the Fiat Monetary system and economy. Yes… at that point, technical analysis won’t matter. BUT, we aren’t there yet.

So, instead of precious metals investors becoming frustrated because they believe the silver price should only go IN ONE DIRECTION… UP, I am just showing how silver trades in the current system. Thus, if it falls back down to a certain key technical level before moving higher, you CAN TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

BITCOIN vs. GOLD: Which One’s A Bubble & How Much Energy Do They Really Consume

November 2, 2017

BITCOIN vs. GOLD: Which One’s A Bubble & How Much Energy Do They Really Consume

If you are investing in either Bitcoin or Gold, it’s important to understand which asset is behaving more like a bubble than the other. While it’s impossible to understand how the market will value these two very different assets in the future, we can provide some logical analysis that might remove some of the mystery associated with the market price of Bitcoin versus Gold.

I’ve read some analysis on Bitcoin profitability and energy consumption that seemed unreliable, so I thought I would put my two cents in on the subject.

For example, many sites are using the Digiconomist’s work on Bitcoin energy consumption. However, I believe this analysis has overstated Bitcoin’s energy consumption by a large degree. According to the Digiconomist, Bitcoin’s annual electric use is approximately 24 TerraWatts per year (TWh/yr):

In a recent article that was forwarded to me by one of my readers, How Many Barrels Of Oil Are Needed To Mine One Bitcoin, the author used the information in the chart above to calculate the energy cost to produce each Bitcoin. He stated that the average energy cost for each Bitcoin equals 20 barrels of oil equivalent. Unfortunately, that data is grossly overstated.

If we look at another website, the author explains in great detail the actual energy cost to produce each Bitcoin. According to Marc Bevand, he calculated on July 28th, that the average electric consumption of Bitcoin was 7.7 TWh/yr, one-third of the Digiconomist’s figure. Here is a chart and table from Marc Bevand’s site showing how he arrived at the figures:

This graph shows the increase in Bitcoin’s hash rate and the efficiency of the Bitcoin Miners at the bottom.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKET: Where We Go From Here

October 28, 2017

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKET: Where We Go From Here

As the U.S. Stock Market Bubble continues upward toward a giant pin, there are some interesting developments that precious metals investors will find quite interesting. Yes, there’s still a lot of life left in the precious metals, even though pessimistic market sentiment has frustrated a lot of gold and silver investors.

Also, even though precious metals investment demand in the U.S. has fallen 40+% compared to the same time last year, it continues to be strong in other parts of the world. For example, German physical gold bar and coin demand increased 8% in the first half of 2017 versus the same period last year, while U.S. fell by 45%. Moreover, flows into European Gold ETF’s hit a record during the second quarter of 2017:

Now, if we look at what is going on with gold and Central Bank demand, Russia takes the first place. According to the article by Smaulgld, Russia Steps Up Gold Purchase With Massive Buy In September:

In September 2017, the Central Bank of Russia added 1.1 million ounces (34.2138 tons) of gold to her reserves, raising her total to 1779.119 tons or 57.2 million ounces.

Central Bank of Russia has added 5.3 Million ounces (approximately 165 tonnes) in 2017 through September.

If you haven’t already checked out Louis’s work at Smaulgld.com, I highly recommend you do. So, as the German public and Russian Central bank continue to increase their gold holdings, Americans have cut back considerably, or worse… have been liquidating. Furthermore, the U.S. gold market is suffering another supply deficit this year. As of July 2017, U.S. gold mine supply and imports totaled 288 metric tons (mt) while exports were 290 mt. Thus, we have exported ALL of our gold mine supply and imports overseas. (NOTE: 1 Metric Ton = 32,150 troy oz.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Deepwater Offshore Oil Industry Trainwreck Approaching

October 25, 2017

U.S. Deepwater Offshore Oil Industry Trainwreck Approaching

The U.S. Deepwater Offshore Oil Industry is a trainwreck in the making. The low oil price continues to sack an industry which was booming just a few short years ago. The days of spending billions of dollars to find and produce some of the most technically challenging deep-water oil deposits may be coming to an end sooner then the market realizes.

Drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico hit a peak in 2013 when the price of oil was over $100 a barrel. However, the current number of rigs drilling in the Gulf of Mexico has fallen to only 37% of what it was in 2013. This is undoubtedly bad news for an industry that fetches upward of $600,000 a day for leasing these massive ultra-deepwater rigs.

One of the largest offshore drilling rig companies in the world is Transocean, headquartered in Switzerland. They lease ultra-deepwater rigs all over the globe. When the industry was still strong in 2014, nearly half of Transocean’s fleet of 27 ultra-deepwater rigs were leased in the Gulf of Mexico. Even though Transocean was quite busy that year, its ultra-deepwater rig utilization was 89% during the first half of 2014, down from an impressive 95% in 1H 2013.

The term utilization represents the total number of working rigs in the fleet. So, in 2013, Transocean had 95% of its rigs busy drilling oil wells. But if we look at the following chart, we can see the disaster that has taken place at Transocean since the oil price fell by more than 50%:

Currently, Transocean’s ultra-deepwater rig count has dropped to a low of 12 versus 27 in 2014. And it’s even worse than that. Since 2014, Transocean added three more new rigs for a total number of 30. Thus, Transocean’s ultra-deepwater rig utilization is down to a stunning 37% compared to 95% just four years ago. So, when a rig isn’t working, it’s not making revenue.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

MARKETS… WE GOT TROUBLE: Debt & Brain-Dead Retail Investors Prop Up Stocks

October 25, 2017

MARKETS… WE GOT TROUBLE: Debt & Brain-Dead Retail Investors Prop Up Stocks

As the Dow Jones Index hits another all-time high today, smart money is rushing to the exits. You see, smart money knows when something is too good to be true. Unfortunately for the retail investor who is suffering from acute BRAIN DAMAGE, they are doing quite the opposite. As institutions sellout on each new market price rise, retail investors are happily buying… hand over fist.

And why shouldn’t they? These are good times. Well, maybe not for Americans living in Houston, parts of Florida, California or in Puerto Rico. Whatever happened to the news on the massive flooding and hurricane damage in Houston, Florida and Puerto Rico? I remember seeing videos of Miami Beach High-Rise Condos with seawater 5-8 feet surrounding the entire area. Does anyone have an idea of what happens to electrical systems when salt water floods buildings? It’s not good.

Regardless… the amount of destruction major U.S. cities have experienced in the past three months is like nothing we have witnessed before. Regrettably, a lot of these homes and businesses will never be rebuilt. Not only don’t we have the money to do it, more importantly, we also don’t have the available energy. While the massive destruction by hurricanes, flooding and fire have not impacted the stock market currently, they will.

As I mentioned at the beginning of the article, retail investors are propping up the markets. However, they aren’t the only ones, or should I say, the only factor in keeping the markets from falling off a cliff. Thanks to Uncle Sam, total U.S. debt has increased by $590 billion in just the past month and a half. Here is a table of U.S. debt from the data published by the fine folks at TreasuryDirect.gov:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES: Example Of What Is Horribly Wrong With The U.S. Shale Oil Industry

February 25, 2017

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES: Example Of What Is Horribly Wrong With The U.S. Shale Oil Industry

According to Continental Resources website, it labels itself as America’s oil champion. To be a champion, one is supposed to be winner. Unfortunately for Continental, it’s taking a serious beating and is a perfect example of what is horribly wrong with the U.S. Shale Oil Industry.

During the beginning of the U.S. shale energy revolution, the industry stated it would make the United States energy independent. The mainstream media picked up this positive theme and ran with it. Americans who wanted to believe in this “Growth forever” notion, had no problem going further into debt to buy as much crap as they could to fill their homes with and additional rental storage units.

For several years, the U.S. Shale Revolution seemed like it was going to defy the laws of gravity (and finance) to provide the country with limitless oil production forever. However, something started to go seriously wrong as these shale oil companies reported their financial earnings. One by one, these oil companies financial losses and debts continued to pile up.

And a perfect example, or the “Poster child”, of what is horribly wrong with the U.S. Shale Oil Industry is none other than Continental Resources.

Again, if you go to Continental Resources website, they proudly label themselves as “America’s Champion Oil Company”:

(courtesy of Continental Resources)

Maybe Continental was America’s oil champion at one time, however if we look at their financial results, they have been receiving some serious blows to their mid section. Looking at the company’s free cash flow since 2010, it isn’t a pretty picture:

From 2010 to 2016 YTD (year to date – Q3 2016), Continental (ticker CLR) has spent a stunning $7.6 billion more on capital expenditures (CAPEX) than they made in operating cash. Of course this had a negative impact on their balance sheet.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bankrupting OPEC… One Million Barrels Of Oil At A Time

February 25, 2017

Bankrupting OPEC… One Million Barrels Of Oil At A Time

The world hasn’t really caught on yet, but OPEC is in serious trouble. Last year, OPEC’s net oil export revenues collapsed. How bad? Well, how about 65% since the oil price peaked in 2012. To offset falling oil prices and revenues, OPEC nations have resorted to liquidating some of their foreign exchange reserves.

The largest OPEC oil producer and exporter, Saudi Arabia, has seen its Foreign Currency reserves plummet over the past two years… and the liquidation continues. For example, Saudi Arabia’s foreign exchange reserves declined another $2 billion in December 2016 (source: Trading Economics).

Now, why would Saudi Arabia need to liquidate another $2 billion of its foreign exchange reserves after the price of a barrel of Brent crude jumped to $53.3 in December, up from $44.7 in November?? That was a 13% surge in the price of Brent crude in one month. Which means, even at $53 a barrel, Saudi Arabia is still hemorrhaging.

Before I get into how bad things are becoming in Saudi Arabia, let’s take a look at the collapse of OPEC net oil export revenues:

The mighty OPEC oil producers enjoyed a healthy $951 billion in net oil export revenues in 2012. However, this continued to decline along with the rapidly falling oil price and reached a low of $334 billion in 2016. As I mentioned before, this was a 65% collapse in OPEC oil revenues in just four years.

The last time OPEC net oil export revenues was this low was in 2004. OPEC oil revenues that year were $370 billion based on average Brent crude price of $38.3. Compare that to $334 billion in oil revenues in 2016 on an average Brent crude price of $43.5 a barrel.

This huge decline in OPEC oil revenues gutted these countries foreign exchange reserves. Which means, the falling EROI- Energy Returned On Investment is taking a toll on the OPEC oil exporting countries bottom line. A perfect example of this is taking place in Saudi Arabia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Silver Market Set Up For Much Higher Price Move Than Gold

February 9, 2017

Silver Market Set Up For Much Higher Price Move Than Gold

When the paper markets finally collapse, the silver market is set up for much higher price gains than gold. Why? Because the fundamentals show that precious metals investment demand has put a great deal more pressure on the silver supply than gold… and by a long shot.

There are three crucial reasons why the silver price will outperform the gold price when the highly inflated paper markets disintegrate under the weight of massive debt and derivatives. While many precious metals investors are frustrated by the ability of the Fed and Central Banks to continue to prop up the markets, the longer they postpone the day of reckoning, the worse the collapse.

The first reason I wrote about in my article, Critically High U.S. Silver Supply Reliance In Jeopardy When Paper Markets Crack:

the United States silver net import reliance as a percentage of total consumption, was 72%, versus 36% for copper and a negative 48% for gold.

This chart shows that the U.S. relied upon 72% of its domestic silver demand from foreign sources in 2015. Thus, U.S. silver supply reliance (72%) is double that of copper (36%), while U.S. gold demand enjoyed a 48% surplus versus its domestic supply.

The second reason the silver price will surge higher than the gold price is due to the amount of physical silver, in total ounces, purchased by investors versus gold:

From 2010 to 2016, investors purchased a total of 1,505 million oz (Moz) of silver bar and coin compared to only 284 Moz of physical gold. Thus, precious metals investors purchased five times more silver ounces, than gold ounces during this seven year time period.

Of course, the total value of physical gold investment was much higher than silver during this time period, but this tremendous amount of silver bar and coin demand has impacted the silver market much greater than the gold market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. SHALE GAS INDUSTRY: Countdown To Disaster

December 19, 2016

U.S. SHALE GAS INDUSTRY: Countdown To Disaster

u-s-shale-gas-disaster-blur The countdown has started as the demise of the great U.S. shale gas industry has begun. This will have a disastrous impact on the U.S. economy as shale gas production declines in a big way. Unfortunately, very few Americans understand how sickly the domestic shale gas industry truly is, because they have been brainwashed to believe the United States is heading towards energy independence.

For the U.S. to become energy independent, it would have to add at least another five million barrels per day of oil production. At the peak in February 2015, the U.S. shale oil industry produced a little more than five million barrels of oil per day. However, the real problem is not the doubling of U.S. shale oil production, rather it’s being able to make a profit in the process.

The U.S. shale oil and gas industry hasn’t made any real money since 2009. This is especially true for one of the largest natural gas producers in the United States. Chesapeake Energy, which is the second largest natural gas producer in the country, hasn’t made a lousy nickel for at least the past ten years:

chesapeake-energy-free-cash-flow-table

This table comes from the website, gurufocus.com. If you click on the Chesapeake Free Cash Flow link at gurufocus.com, you will see the very same table by scrolling down the page. According to gurufocus, their definition of Free Cash Flow is the following:

Free Cash Flow is considered one of the most important parameters to measure a companys earnings power by value investors because it is not subject to estimates of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization (DDA). Over the long term, Free Cash Flow should give pretty good picture on the real earnings power of the company.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World Economies in Trouble: Middle East Oil Exports Lower Than 40 Years Ago

December 7, 2016

WORLD ECONOMIES IN TROUBLE: Middle East Oil Exports Lower Than 40 Years Ago

Yes, it’s true. Middle East net oil exports are less than they were 40 years ago. How could this be? Just yesterday, Zerohedge released a news story stating that OPEC oil production reached a new record high of 34.19 million barrels per day. To the typical working-class stiff, driving a huge four-wheel drive truck pulling a RV and a trailer behind it with three ATV’s on it, this sounds like great news.

Unfortunately for the Middle East, this isn’t something to celebrate. Why? Well, let’s just say, there’s more to the story than record oil production.

While the Middle East oil companies were busy working hard (spending money hand over fist) to produce this record oil production, their wonderful citizens were working even harder to consume as much oil as they could get their hands on.

In the past 40 years, Middle East domestic oil consumption surged more than six times from 1.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in 1976, to 9.6 mbd in 2015. This had a seriously negative impact on rising Middle East oil production:

middle-east-oil-production-vs-net-exports

According to the 2016 BP Statistical Review, the Middle East produced 30.10 mbd of oil in 2015 compared to 22.35 mbd in 1976. This was a growth of 7.75 mbd. However, Middle East domestic oil consumption increased from 1.51 mbd in 1976 to 9.57 mbd in 2015. Thus, the Middle Eastern economies devoured an additional 8.06 mbd of oil during that 40 year time-period.

NOTE: The production data shown in the chart above only represents Middle East oil production. OPEC members not included are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela. I only listed the production data for the Middle East as the data was readily available.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

THE DEATH OF THE BAKKEN FIELD HAS BEGUN: Means Big Trouble For The U.S.

September 17, 2016

THE DEATH OF THE BAKKEN FIELD HAS BEGUN: Means Big Trouble For The U.S.

The Death of the Great Bakken Oil Field has begun and very few Americans understand the significance. Just a few years ago, the U.S. Energy Industry and Mainstream media were gloating that the United States was on its way to “Energy Independence.”

Unfortunately for most Americans, they believed the hype and are now back to driving BIG SUV’s and trucks that get lousy fuel mileage. And why not? Americans now think the price of gasoline will continue to decline because the U.S. oil industry is able to produce its “supposed” massive shale oil reserves for a fraction of the cost, due to the new wonders of technological improvement.

I actually hear this all the time when I travel and talk to family, friends and strangers. I gather they have no clue that the Great Bakken Oil Field is now down a stunning 25% from its peak in just a little more than a year and half ago:

bakken-field-oil-production-sept-2016

The mighty Bakken oil field located in North Dakota reached peak production in December 2014 at 1.26 million barrels per day (mbd) and is now down to 942,000 bd. This decline is no surprise to me or to my readers who have been following my work for the past several years.

I wrote about the upcoming crash of the Bakken oil field in my article (click on image to read article)– Published, NOV. 2013:

the-coming-bust-of-the-great-bakken-oil-field

I ended the article with these sobering words:

There are only so many drilling locations available and once they run out, the Great Bakken Field will become a BUST as the high decline rates will push overall oil production down the very same way it came up.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Coming Breakdown of U.S. & Global Markets Explained… What Most Analysts Miss

August 16, 2016

THE COMING BREAKDOWN OF U.S. & GLOBAL MARKETS EXPLAINED… What Most Analysts Miss

The U.S. and world are heading toward an accelerated breakdown of their economic and financial markets. Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of analysts fail to understand the root cause of this impending calamity. This is also true for the majority of precious metals analysts.

The reason for this upcoming systemic collapse of the U.S. and Global markets is quite simple when you understand the information and are able to CONNECT THE DOTS. While it has taken me years of research to be able to finally put it all together, new information really put it all into perspective.

Yes… a HUGE LIGHT BULB went off, but unfortunately the realization is much worse than anything I imagined before. I briefly discussed this in my last article, The Coming Global Silver Production Collapse & Skyrocketing Silver Value.

The information discussed in this article makes it abundantly clear that the precious metals will be the GO TO ASSETS in the future. The standard financial practice of investing most of one’s assets in stocks, bonds and real estate will no longer be true. What little investment strategies are left in the future will turn to PROTECTING WEALTH, rather than building wealth. The days of acquiring wealth are coming to and end… and fast.

So, now I will try to lay out all the details in a way that will make this easy to understand. However, I have a word of warning. Those who are able to connect the dots… it’s like taking the RED PILL, you can’t unlearn what you now realize.

The Collapsing EROI Is Destroying Everything In Its Path & Quickly

Americans used to enjoy a much better standard of living when it only took one person in the family to provide the income. This was during the late 1940’s, 1950’s and early 1960’s. However, the situation started to change in the 1970’s.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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