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Lockdowns Make Time Stand Still
Rembrandt van Rijn Student at a table by candlelight c.1642
The discussion has been stuck in an All Else Being Equal (Ceteris Paribus) mode, but all things do not remain equal. It’s not even as if you get rid of the disease, all your problems go away. Not only do various COVID measures inflict huge damage on economies, on people’s jobs and incomes, they also cause entire new sets of health problems.
Epidemiologists and virologists are not equipped for such massive problems. They may be able to say the odd wise word in their field -and even that will be 90% rear-view mirror stuff, because they must compare what they see to what happened in the past-, but the disease doesn’t only affect their field. It affects many fields they have no knowledge of.
Their ideas are then taken on board by economists, not exactly the most scientific of sciences, and off go the government policies. But that was 6-7 months ago, and we learned so much since, right? By now we have involved for instance mental health experts on a large scale, right? Yeah, sure.
The point is, you can’t force lockdowns, masks etc. onto people, without looking at what the consequences of that will be. Because all things do not remain equal for 6-7 months.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rolling Boulders Uphill
Rolling Boulders Uphill
As symbols of futility go, that of Sisyphus takes some beating. In Greek mythology, Sisyphus was captured by the gods after having freed humanity from Death. They punished him, of course: he would spend the rest of his days pushing a boulder up to the top of a mountain. Just when he reached the summit, as perpetual torment for his efforts, the boulder would inexorably roll back down again. Sisyphus was condemned to push the boulder uphill for all eternity. His was the original rolling stone.
The American author Henry David Thoreau would go on to echo the essential pointlessness of Sisyphus’ struggle. In his own memorable phrase,
“Most men lead lives of quiet desperation and go to the grave with the song still in them.”
Today’s Sisyphus is China. More particularly, the Chinese authorities. They are determined to roll that boulder uphill.
The path of least resistance for the boulder, however, is downward. Gravity, after all, is a bitch. The Chinese stock market is still comparatively young, and as stable as any toddler overwhelmed by parental expectations.
With their boulder beset by the giant suck of gravity, China’s Sisyphus first cut rates, and trimmed banks’ reserve ratios.
The boulder continued to roll downhill.
So Sisyphus announced plans to slash brokerage costs. But the boulder was not in a mood to listen.
Sisyphus is nothing if not persistent. Next up: a relaxation of rules on margin trading. But the boulder remained impassive, and continued to roll downhill. Sisyphus threatened to look into illegal market manipulation, and to round up the usual suspects. Bothered, replied the boulder as it kept on rolling.
Sisyphus tried to repeal gravitational laws. He banned numerous accounts from selling the market short. But the boulder rolled on down.
So Sisyphus knocked heads together on the exchange, and rustled up a package of 120 billion yuan to help support the boulder. The boulder still fell.
– See more at: http://www.cobdencentre.org/2015/09/rolling-boulders-uphill/#sthash.fiA4zCoj.dpuf
