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The US stock markets are all at record highs, gold is at a record high, and silver is at the highest price since 2013. Welcome to the everyone wins market, no craps allowed.

Congratulations to silver bulls, copper bulls, gold bulls, S&P 500 bulls, Nasdaq bulls, Dow bulls, and US housing bulls?

Did I leave anything out?

Record High on Gold

Gold’s Strongest Move In a Year Was When the Dollar Was Rising

Gold and the US dollar are not as inversely correlated as widely believed. Sometimes gold and the dollar move strongly in the same direction. Let’s discuss why.

Gold and US Dollar charts courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish.

On April 11, 2024, I noted Gold’s Strongest Move In a Year Was When the Dollar Was Rising

Gold’s strongest move in over a year started in March with the US dollar index generally moving higher.

Gold vs the US Dollar

Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.Com, annotations by Mish

Gold vs the US Dollar Synopsis

Contrary to widespread myth, gold is not a good US dollar hedge.

With the US dollar Index at 90, gold has been at $380, $1000, $1130, and $1900.

And there are times when gold and the dollar rise together.

When Does Gold Do Best?

In general, gold is a poor inflation hedge. The best example is gold fell from$850 to $250 per ounce with inflation every step of the way.

In the mid-to-late 1990s, everyone thought “The Maestro”, Alan Greenspan, had everything under control. In such periods, gold is among the worst assets to hold.

Gold is best viewed not as a hedge against inflation but a hedge against credit stress, stagflation, and faith in central banks.

Is Everything Under Control?

Hello Jerome Powell. Sorry for asking, but we need to know: Is everything under control?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold Or Silver?

January 21, 2023

Gold Or Silver?

You want both, obviously, but how much of each and why?

At first glance, gold and silver seem pretty fungible. They’re both hypnotically pretty. Their prices tend to rise and fall according to the same financial/political forces. They’re both seen as real money by a tiny (very wise) fraction of the population and as atavistic relics by the vast, ignorant majority. And – most important – they will both preserve their owners’ purchasing power when today’s fiat currencies evaporate like the fever dreams they always were.

So you definitely want some (and maybe a lot) of each. But gold and silver are not identical. They have different strengths and weaknesses in various “monetary reset” scenarios. And their prices don’t move in lockstep. Sometimes one is cheap relative to the other.

So how much of each should we own now, and how quickly should we plan to load up the truck? The answer is different for each person, but a few things are generally true.

The gold/silver ratio
The relative prices of gold and silver tend to fluctuate within a broad but discernable range. This gold/silver ratio is expressed as the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold and tends to rise and fall along with the emotional state of precious metals investors. When those investors don’t foresee imminent inflation or other monetary disruptions, they gravitate towards gold’s safety and stability, and shy away from silver’s volatility. Gold’s price rises relative to silver’s, producing a high gold/silver ratio.

When investors expect rising inflation or other kinds of currency instability, they buy precious metals generally, but gravitate towards silver’s greater upside potential. Gold and silver both rise but the gold/silver ratio falls as buyers push silver’s price up more quickly than gold’s.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

2021 Year in Review: Crisis of Authority and the Age of Narratives

January 9, 2022

2021 Year in Review: Crisis of Authority and the Age of Narratives

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year is no exception. Poignant and delightfully acerbic when necessary, considering the troubling times. As with past years, he selected Peak Prosperity as the site where it is published in full. It is longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full. This is Part 1.

Introduction

Dave: You do lack self control, but I learned and laughed making my way thru this.

~ Larry Summers (@LHSummers), former Secretary of the Treasury

I’ve been trying to reach you about your car’s extended warranty. What began more than a dozen years ago as a synopsis of the year’s events in markets and finance for a few friends morphed beyond my control into a Year in Review (YIR)—an attempt to chronicle human folly and world events for the entire year. It captures key moments before they slip into the brain fog. The process of trying to write a coherent narrative helps me better understand WTF just happened and seminal moments that catch my eye.

By far my favorite end-of-year recap for the last ten years. Finished it yesterday. Once again David hasn’t disappointed. He’s on my I want to go to dinner with list.

~ Jim Pallotta (@jimpallotta13), money manager and former owner of Boston Celtics

I’m game, Jim, even if it’s just a pretzel, nachos, and a brewski. The title, “Crisis of Authority,” is a double entendre. On the one hand, previously trusted authorities that we relied on to better understand the world are long gone. Edward R. Murrow, Walter Cronkite, and Tim Russert have been replaced with Chris Cuomo, Don Lemon, and Brian Stelter. Oops. Scratch Chris Cuomo..

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

CPM GROUP Drops The Ball On Silver Mining Industry’s Falling Ore Grades

January 4, 2022

CPM GROUP Drops The Ball On Silver Mining Industry’s Falling Ore Grades

On this Happy New Year’s Eve, I decided to post a short YouTube video update on my response to CPM Group’s stance on the Primary Silver Mining Industry’s falling ore grades. The CPM Group posted on Twitter that silver ore grades fall when prices rise. While this is partially true, the CPM Group seems to ignore the ongoing “Resource Depletion” taking place in not only the silver mining industry but in all metals’ production.

Please share this video with other precious metals investors via the Youtube link or on Twitter.

Happy New Year!!

Gold and silver prospects for 2022

December 27, 2021

Gold and silver prospects for 2022

It has been a disappointing year for profit-seeking precious metal investors, but for those few of us looking to accumulate gold and silver as the ultimate insurance against runaway inflation it has been an unexpected bonus.

After reviewing the current year to gain a perspective for 2022, this article summarises the outlook for the dollar, the euro, and their financial systems. The key issue is the interest rate outlook, and how that will impact financial markets, which are wholly unprepared for the consequences of the massive expansions of currency and credit over the last two years.

We look briefly at geopolitical factors and conclude that Presidents Putin and Xi have assessed President Biden and his administration to be fundamentally weak. Putin is now driving a wedge between the US and the UK on one side and the pusillanimous, disorganised EU nations on the other, using energy supplies and the massing of troops on the Ukrainian border as levers to apply pressure. Either the situation escalates to an invasion of Ukraine (unlikely) or America backs off under pressure from the EU. Meanwhile, China will continue to build its presence in the South China Sea and its global influence through its silk roads. Less appreciated is that China and Russia continue to accumulate gold and are ditching the dollar.

And finally, we look at silver, which is set to become the star performer against fiat currencies, driven by a combination of poor liquidity, ESG-driven industrial demand and investor realisation that its price has much catching up to do compared with lithium, uranium, and copper. The potential for a fiat currency collapse is thrown in for nothing.
2021 — That was the year that was

This year has been disappointing for precious metals investors. Figure 1 shows how gold and silver have performed since 31 December 2020.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflation and Gold: What Gives?

December 23, 2021

Inflation and Gold: What Gives?

In the last Supply and Demand update, we discussed some different theories which attempt to explain what causes the gold and silver prices to move. We mentioned the:

“…attempt to hold up a famous buyer of metal, while ignoring the thousands of not-famous sellers who sold the metal to said famous buyer.”

Since then, Ireland has bought gold for the first time in over a decade. And predictably, most voices in the gold community see this as a bullish sign.

By the way, we did not see any data about the prices paid on what dates, but the articles on December 1 mention a series of buys over a few months. Assuming a few means two, it looks like Ireland may have paid more than the current price.

The Different Theories on What Moves Gold and Silver Prices

Back to the common bullish view of Ireland’s wisdom, what of the opinions of the 64,300 people who sold their gold to Ireland (assuming the average seller sold an ounce)? Surely, these people believed the price will go down?

Famous and Anonymous Price Movers

There are two competing theories for how to interpret the conflicting views when one market participant is famous and the other is a bunch of anonymous people. One is the “famous buyer” theory, and the other is the “incompetent bureaucrat” theory. The latter was used to explain the sale of half of Britain’s gold between 1999 and 2002.

How could we have known that the UK government was foolish to sell back then, and the anonymous 12,699,250 buyers were right? Whereas today, the Irish bureaucrats are right, and the 64,300 sellers are wrong?

This is just a bias towards bullishness.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Rising Fundamentals for Gold and Silver

November 11, 2021

Rising Fundamentals for Gold and Silver

The Different Theories on What Moves Gold and Silver Prices

For example, the Quantity Theory school attempts to relate the quantity (or change in quantity) of dollars, to each commodity. Generally, this theory predicts rising prices based on the reasoning of “more dollars chasing the same or fewer ounces of gold and silver.” The problem is that the new holders of these new dollars are not necessarily bidding up gold and silver (our thorough rebuttal to this is here).

The Conspiracy School thinks that there is a shadowy cabal, a price-manipulation cartel that decides what the gold and silver prices will be (our thorough rebuttal to this is in our Thoughtful Disagreement with Ted Butler).

Other schools attempt to compare mine production with industrial and jewelry demand. Or attempt to hold up a famous buyer of metal, while ignoring the thousands of not-famous sellers who sold the metal to said famous buyer. We should not make too much ado over a move of metal from one corner of the market to another (as we’ll discuss below).

Gold and Silver Fundamental Analysis:Contango, Backwardation and the Basis

None of these schools describes the fundamentals of the gold and silver markets, much less predicts the price moves. To look at the fundamentals, one must look at the gold and silver bases. The basis, to oversimplify slightly, is futures price – spot price. This shows the fundamentals, because a market in scarcity (as oil has been recently) has a lower price for future delivery than for immediate delivery. In other words, buyers prefer their oil now rather than later. And this preference is expressed as a higher price for delivery now, vs. later…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Physical Demand Will Completely Overwhelm Supply” And How Silver Could Wind Up Over $270

September 11, 2021

“Physical Demand Will Completely Overwhelm Supply” And How Silver Could Wind Up Over $270

This is Part 1 of a two-part interview with Andy Schectman, President & Owner of Miles Franklin Precious Metals, a company that has done more than $5 billion in sales. Andy is a world-renowned expert in the field of precious metals and took the time to answer some pressing questions I had about the possibility of a real silver squeeze, the precious metals market, the Fed, and the future of money worldwide. He has been a frequent guest on my podcast, as well.

A: More silver is being consumed than is being mined each year. Last year, approximately 850 million ounces were mined globally, with a demand of over one billion ounces. The industrial demand for silver is surging in an increasingly digital world, with new applications every day in green energy and battery powered vehicles.

At the same time annual global mine supply is declining and industrial demand is increasing, a global renaissance in monetary demand is upon us. This is happening while a handful of large Wall Street bullion banks have manipulated the price of monetary metals for decades, allowing some of the biggest money in the world to accumulate massive amounts of physical gold and silver at subsidized prices.

The physical demand filters down from the top. Over 300 million ounces of silver were removed from the Comex market in 2020 by some of the most sophisticated and well healed investors in the world. Settlements on the Comex are usually mostly in dollars…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

LBMA misleads Silver Market with False Claims about Record Silver Stocks

May 12, 2021

LBMA misleads Silver Market with False Claims about Record Silver Stocks

In a shocking retraction, the bullion bank dominated London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has just announced that it has been overstating LBMA silver vault holdings by a massive 3,300 tonnes of silver.

This overstatement relates to the total quantity of physical silver bars that the LBMA claimed were being held in LBMA vaults in London as of end of March 2021.

These LBMA vaults in London are operated by three banks, namely the infamous JP Morgan, the equally infamous HSBC, and the maybe not so infamous ICBC Standard Bank, and three security vaulters, Brinks, Malca Amit and Loomis.

On 9 April, to much fanfare, the LBMA published updated monthly vault data for London vaulted silver bars, claiming that as of end of March 2021, total silver held in LBMA London vaults had risen by a whopping 11.04% during March from 1.125 billion ozs (34,996 tonnes) to 1.249 billion ozs (38,859 tonnes), i.e. an increase of 124 million ozs or 3863 tonnes.

LBMA even claimed that this surge in silver holdings meant that there were record stocks of silver in London, titling it’s press release, ‘Record Stocks of Silver in London Vaults – End March 2021’:

“As at end March 2021, there was a record stock of silver held in London vaults. In total there was 38,859 tonnes of silver, representing an 11% increase on the previous month, valued at $30 billion which equates to approximately 1,259,310 silver bars.”

This, it turns out, was not true.

However, for an entire month the LBMA let this fiction persist, before deciding to change its claim on 10 May when it released a statement saying that:

“A data submission error led to the publication of an incorrect aggregate figure for the total silver held in London vaults in March. The corrected figure is 1,143,194 Troy ounces (‘000s).“

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

When “Unallocated” Becomes Unavailable

March 24, 2021

When “Unallocated” Becomes Unavailable

For the past ten years, we’ve railed against the Bullion Bank fractional reserve and digital derivative pricing scheme. The solution has always been the removal of physical metal from the hands of the Banks and the Mints. Are we finally making some progress?

Before we begin, it is crucial that you understand this basic point: The globally recognized prices of gold and silver are not determined through the exchange of actual physical metal. Price is instead determined by the exchange of derivative contracts. Thus, the supply and demand of physical metal has very little day-to-day bearing on the derivative price. Instead, it is the supply and demand of the derivative itself that determines price.

About four years ago, I wrote the article linked below with the purpose of explaining, in as simple terms as possible, how and why this digital derivative pricing scheme benefits The Bullion Banks that have monopolistic control of these “markets”. If you’ve never read this post, please do so now:

Econ 101 — Silver Market Manipulation

The key pillars in maintaining this fraudulent pricing scheme are the market activities in New York and London. The CME-owned COMEX and the LBMA collective work together to manage price and the flow of physical metal that is needed to legitimize it. To understand this hand-in-glove approach, consider that Michael Nowak—the recently indicted former head of global precious metals trading for JPMorgan—also sat on the board of directors of the LBMA:

LBMA in “discussions” with JPMorgan following fraud indictment

For precious metal investors everywhere, it is vital that we one day force this pricing scheme to collapse. Since The Scheme is built upon leverage and hypothecation, the only way we can win this fight is if we can force a deleverage of the fractional reserve system…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Interesting COMEX Trend: Silver Short Squeeze Appears to Be on Track

March 19, 2021

Interesting COMEX Trend: Silver Short Squeeze Appears to Be on Track

COMEX is the primary futures and options market for trading metals such as gold and silver. There have been some interesting trends for silver in the COMEX in recent months. More investors are taking delivery of silver. In other words, the short squeeze may still be on track – albeit in slow motion – and this could impact the silver price moving forward.

You will recall that last month, the Reddit investors turned the spotlight onto silver. The hope was to create a short squeeze in the market by buying up physical silver. The price popped temporarily, but it appeared at the time the silver market was just too big for the Reddit Raiders to squeeze. The price dropped back and the spotlight dimmed. But looking at some trends in the COMEX indicates the squeeze might still be on.

A futures contract is a promise to deliver a certain amount of gold or silver at a certain price at a certain time. Speculators play this market, hoping to profit from a price swing. Say you buy a $26 per ounce silver contract and the price of silver rises to $28. The investor can sell the contract and make a few dollars per ounce. Generally, the trades are made on paper. They are made on the promise of that metal and on the knowledge that it exists, but traders rarely take delivery of the metal itself. About 1% of COMEX trades go to delivery.

The following analysis was submitted to SchiffGold and is published for your consideration. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

The COMEX has shown a major divergence in the silver market in recent months. For context, consider this graph. (Open interest is the total number of outstanding options or futures that have not been settled for an asset.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Orwellian CFTC, which ignored years of silver price manipulation, now going after Reddit Apes

March 4, 2021

Orwellian CFTC, which ignored years of silver price manipulation, now going after Reddit Apes

On Monday 1 March, an article in Bloomberg Law by CFTC connected lawyers from law firm Clifford Chance revealed that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is reportedly investigating retail silver trader activity in the silver price and that the US Department of Justice looks set to investigate as well.

Before looking at this shocker of an Orwellian development, it’s helpful to provide some context on the CFTC’s track behavior in this area and to show how hypocritical such a development would be.

Rewinding exactly one month previously to Monday 1 February, as the spot price of silver rallied to an 8-year high of just under US$ 30 per troy ounce amid heightened retail interest and the emergence of the #SilverSqueeze, it was predictable that the establishment on Wall Street and in Washington DC, an establishment with a collective vested interest in a low and suppressed silver price, would feel the heat and attempt to counteract the rally.

On the regulator front, this was demonstrated by none other than the US Government’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), whose acting Chairman Rostin “Russ” Behnam, released an unprecedented statement, actually on 01 February, saying that:

“The CFTC is closely monitoring recent activity in the silver markets. The Commission is communicating with fellow regulators, the exchanges, and stakeholders to address any potential threats to the integrity of the derivatives markets for silver, and remains vigilant in surveilling these markets for fraud and manipulation.”

Although a short statement from the CFTC, it signaled panic, panic on Wall Street and in Washington, that a #SilverSqueeze triggered demand surge in physical silver could pressure the supply side and thus trigger the collapse of the gigantic ongoing paper silver trading charade.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Mint Rations Bullion Coins – Why Aren’t Prices Rising, Too?

February 17, 2021

U.S. Mint Rations Bullion Coins – Why Aren’t Prices Rising, Too?

U.S. Mint Rations Bullion Coins – Why Aren't Prices Rising, Too?

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: The disconnect between gold and silver bullion demand and price, we could be months away from $50 silver, and trove of antique Roman silver coins unearthed in Turkey.

Why bullion prices don’t seem to be in line with demand

Despite record demand for gold and silver bullion coins month after month, the prices of both metals continue to linger within limited ranges. Gold even pulled back to just above $1,800 during Friday’s trading session. So what’s going on? Why isn’t the clearly-demonstrated demand driving prices higher?

U.S. Mint director Ed Moy, whose tenure stretched from 2006 to 2011, recognizes today’s situation and draws many parallels to the start of 2008:

The last time demand was this high was during the [2008-2009] financial crisis. People were panicking and buying into gold, and prices were shooting up. Then the government started injecting both fiscal and monetary stimulus, and you saw gold correct down maybe 20-30%. And then, over the next three years, gold began to climb until it set a new record of $1,925 in 2011. Afterward, gold didn’t decline until it became clear that the economic recovery was going to be slow, which eliminated the uncertainty. The Fed also had the time to mop up all the excess liquidity before it caused inflation.

The former director explained that, besides overloaded mints and supply chain disruptions, there are several other factors that could play an interesting role in shaping up gold’s price over the coming months and years. Moy believes that perhaps the biggest reason for the disconnection between price and demand lies in Wall Street’s shorting of the metals.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Mint Sold Out of Gold & Silver Coins

February 10, 2021

U.S. Mint Sold Out of Gold & Silver Coins

U.S. Mint sold out of gold and silver coins

REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: U.S. Mint can’t keep pace with demand again, Goldman chief calls silver a supercharged version of gold, and amateur prospector unearths a long-lost golden treasure from Medieval times.

U.S. Mint runs out of gold and silver coins

Just when we’d hoped the U.S. Mint might’ve worked its way through the pandemic-driven backlog of gold and silver coins, a new surge in demand worsened supply shortages. Last year, the U.S. Mint saw a 258% increase in purchase of gold coins and a 28% increase in silver coins, with heavy buying continuing into 2021. They probably didn’t plan for what happened next…

On the heels of Reddit’s wallstreetbets triumphant (if brief) GameStop frenzy, the day traders searched for a new target. Some have settled on silver. Amid claims that silver’s price should be closer to $1,000 than $25, day traders have flocked to both gold and silver. This made the ongoing supply crunch even worse.

While silver’s price is still trading around $27, the supply dynamics tell a different tale. The U.S. Mint sold 220,500 American Eagle gold bullion coins in January 2021, a staggering 290% year-on-year increase from last January. It’s not just unexpected demand that’s causing problems, though.

As noted by a retailer of precious metals coins, “There was going to be a backlog in the silver bullion supply chain that rendered silver eagles more scarce either way.” This is because the U.S. Mint is currently changing designs for its American Eagle gold and silver coins, expected to debut this summer. Once available, the U.S. Mint will ration distribution of gold, silver and platinum coins to dealers due to heavy demand.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Does A Silver Panic Look Like?

February 3, 2021

What Does A Silver Panic Look Like?

Veteran precious metals dealer recounts past buying frenzies

Has the #silversqueeze already fizzled out?

Hard to know at the moment. Prices are being hammered down this morning as the CME hiked COMEX margin requirements by 18%.

But according to this interview last night with Robert Mish, an independent precious metals dealer with nearly 60 years of experience in the industry, inventories have been overwhelmed by the wave of retail buyers making purchases over the past few days.

As a result, the price of physical silver is currently MUCH higher than paper silver.

If this buying pressure continues, he sees the price of paper silver being pushed up into the $35-50/oz range in the near term. But that’s only if the army of retail buyers keeps at it.

How will we know if the #silversqueeze army is successful in creating a true silver shortage?

Robert shares his war stories from previous panics in the ’60, ’70s and 1980 to give us a sense of what one will look like if it indeed happens:

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