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Start thinking about silver before it becomes popular again

Start thinking about silver before it becomes popular again

In 663 BC, King Ashurbanipal of the Assyrian Empire invaded Egypt and sacked the city of Waset (located in modern day Luxor on the Nile River).

Ashurbanipal vanquished the city, purportedly seizing more than 75 metric tons of silver for his personal collection.

At the time in the ancient world, the prevailing ratio between gold and silver was 1:2. In other words, 75 metric tons (= 75,000 kilograms) of silver was worth 37,500 kilograms of gold, equal to $1.76 billion in today’s money.

That 1:2 gold/silver ratio had held for thousands of years across Persia, Mesopotamia, and Ancient Egypt, possibly since as early as 3,000 BC.

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But over time it has changed periodically.

By the time of Alexander the Great in the 300s BC, the Gold/Silver ratio had shifted to 1:13. Mining techniques had advanced at that point, so the ancients were able to produce higher volumes of silver than ever before.

Under Julius Caesar in Ancient Rome, one ounce of gold was worth 12 ounces of silver. In the time of Mohammed and the early days of the Islamic Caliphate in the 600s, the ratio was 1:16.

Even in the early history of the United States, the Mint and Coinage Act of 1792 established a gold/silver ratio 1:15.

(According to the law, one US dollar is defined as 1.604 grams of pure gold, or 24.1 grams of pure silver. So those pieces of paper in your wallet are not technically US dollars, but ‘Federal Reserve Notes’.)

In our modern times, the ratio average is around 55 ounces of silver per ounce of gold.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

SILVER PRICE UPDATE: Including End Of A Silver Mining Era

SILVER PRICE UPDATE: Including End Of A Silver Mining Era

Since my last video update, the silver price has consolidated to a lower level.  While I wasn’t surprised to see silver continue to correct, I do believe its only temporary before it begins a new leg higher.  And, if we look at the COT Report for silver, there are some positive signs going forward.

But, before I provide a preview on my newest video update, Silver Price Update & End Of A Silver Mining Era, I wanted to clarify my position on “technical analysis.”  There seems to be a large group of precious metals investors that have a negative KNEE-JERK reaction when I post some charts on technical analysis, stated several reasons why it’s a waste of time to do it when the market is rigged or controlled by the bullion banks (JP Morgan), the Fed and central banks.

While new and long-term followers are free to post any comments they desire about the pros or cons of technical analysis, my reason for doing so is to show what TRADERS ARE LOOKING AT and what they expect going forward. Traders, hedge funds and large institutions all study and follow technical analysis.  Right now, they are the leading drivers of the silver price.

However, technical analysis patterns will not provide the ultimate FUNDAMENTAL VALUE for silver when the Fed and Central Banks lose control of the Fiat Monetary system and economy.  Yes… at that point, technical analysis won’t matter.  BUT, we aren’t there yet.

So, instead of precious metals investors becoming frustrated because they believe the silver price should only go IN ONE DIRECTION… UP, I am just showing how silver trades in the current system.  Thus, if it falls back down to a certain key technical level before moving higher, you CAN TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT. 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Silver Series: The Start of A New Gold-Silver Cycle (Part 1 of 3)

The Silver Series: The Start of A New Gold-Silver Cycle (Part 1 of 3)

The world has experienced a decade of growth fueled by record-low interest rates, a burgeoning money supply, and historic debt levels – but the good times only last so long. 

As the global economy slows and eventually begins to retract, can precious metals offer a useful store of value to investors?

Part 1: The Start of a New Cycle

Today’s infographic comes to us from Endeavour Silver, and it outlines some key indicators that precede a coming gold-silver cycle in which exposure to hard assets may help to protect wealth. 

The Start of a New Gold-Silver Cycle

Bankers Blowing Bubbles

Since 2008, central bankers around the world launched a historic market intervention by printing money and bailing out major banks. With cheap and abundant money, this strategy worked so well that it created a bull market in every sector — except for precious metals. 

Stock markets, consumer lending, and property values surged. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s assets ballooned, and so did corporate, government, and household debt. By 2018, total debt reached almost $250 trillion worldwide. 

Currency vs. Precious Metals

The world awash in unprecedented amounts of currency, and these dollars chase a limited supply of goods. Historically speaking, it’s only a matter of time before the price of goods increases or inflates – eroding the purchasing power of every dollar. 

Gold and silver are some of the only assets unaffected by inflation, retaining their value.

Gold and silver are money… everything else is credit.

– J.P. Morgan

The Perfect Story for a Gold-Silver Cycle?

Investors can use several indicators to gauge the beginning of the gold-silver cycle:

  1. Gold/Silver Futures

    Most traders do not trade physical gold and silver, but paper contracts with the promise to buy at a future price. Every week, U.S. commodity exchanges publish the Commitment of Traders “COT” report. This report summarizes the positions (long/short) of traders for a particular commodity. 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Silver Is Better Than Gold

Why Silver Is Better Than Gold

While the surging gold price has received most of the spotlight in the market, silver will outperform the king monetary metal over the longer term.  Key fundamental factors make silver the more attractive asset and investment to own versus gold when we look closely at the data.  However, that doesn’t mean precious metals investors shouldn’t own gold.  Investors need to own both precious metals, but I believe silver will provide better returns than gold in the future.

Now, there is this notion put forth by many precious metals analysts that central banks will be forced, at some point, to back their currencies by gold.  Thus, the idea is that gold will reset at a much higher price.  While that is a possibility, backing debt-based currencies with gold will not solve our coming energy crisis.  And, let me tell you, it’s an energy predicament that we have no real solution.

You see, it doesn’t really matter if we back fiat money with gold.  The REAL ISSUE has always been ENERGY. The massive increase in debt and derivatives are a symptom of the Falling EROI (Energy Returned On Investment) of oil.  Basically, while gold may solve certain issues in regards to “Confidence” in money, it doesn’t fix our energy problems.

I touched on this briefly in my newest video, Why Silver Is Better Than Gold.  However, most of the video explains new charts that show fundamental factors on why silver is a better investment than gold as well as some key price levels for the short term.

One of the more important charts in the video shows the amount of “Identifiable” physical gold and silver investment stocks.  Interestingly, according to the data from the World Gold Council and the World Silver Surveys, there is just about the same amount of physical gold investment as there is silver.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Silver prices with explosive upside

Silver prices with explosive upside 

Silver prices have lagged gold prices since 2017 which has pushed the gold-to-silver ratio close to the all-time high. Silver prices are also significantly below what is predicted by our pricing model. We think that the reasons for this subdued performance are transitory and that silver will outperform gold again as the next precious metals cycle continues to rapidly unfold. 

In spring 2017, we introduced a framework for understanding the formation of silver prices (Silver price framework: Both money and a commodity, March 9, 2017). In this report we are going to use this framework to analyze the recent performance of silver and give an outlook for where we think silver is heading over the coming months. In our framework piece, we concluded that silver is both money (store of value) and an input commodity and thus the impact of both industrial and monetary demand needs to be taken into consideration:

  • On the one hand, silver is a counterparty-risk-free form of money where replacement costs set the lower boundary for prices – the same energy proof of value that underlies gold prices. Thus, silver should be impacted by the same drivers as gold prices: Real-interest rate expectations, central bank policy, and longer-dated energy prices.
  • On the other hand, silver is a commodity with extensive industrial applications. Hence, changes in industrial activity should impact the price of silver as well.

In our framework note, we also discussed the two main reasons why we think that silver tends to outperform gold in bull markets and underperform in bear markets:

  • Because the value of global silver stocks is much smaller than that of global gold stocks – which is the result of silver being used in industrial applications – a rise in monetary demand for silver has a disproportionally large effect. In other words, when demand for metals increases as an alternative to fiat currency, there is simply less silver around to change hands.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Currency Wars Have Entered the Next Phase, Gold and Silver Will Move Higher

Currency Wars Have Entered the Next Phase, Gold and Silver Will Move Higher

Currency Wars Have Entered the Next Phase, Gold and Silver Will Move Higher - Nathan McDonald (09/08/2019)

Gold is trading solidly above the $1500 mark at the time of writing, and I believe we are only just getting started. The currency wars are back in full swing, and they will be more intense than ever.

The United States government, ironically, labeled China a currency manipulator for the first time since 1994, marking a severe uptick in their rhetoric against the Chinese government, as the trade wars continue to spiral out of control with seemingly no end in sight.

Many simply waved this move off as nothing more than what it initially appeared to be: jawboning with no true ramifications behind it. However, others see it as a blatant threat by the U.S. administration against China, as the last time this language was used twenty-five years ago was when China was placed on a currency blacklist.

Some were surprised by this move, as they see it as an overreaction, fearing that we have now moved into another phase of the ongoing currency wars that have bubbled behind the scenes for years—currency wars that are now in plain sight for all to see.

Unfortunately, this should come as no surprise to anyone, as President Trump stated back in 2016 that he fully intended to label China a “currency manipulator”, a statement that was laughed off until now.

This move comes on the heels of a Fed interest rate cut in which the Fed Chief, Jerome Powell, lowered rates by 0.25%, citing fears of a weakening global economy and ongoing trade wars.

Of course, China is far from the only currency manipulator in the world, as countries are constantly “racing to the bottom” in an attempt to lower the value of their currencies. This increases their competitiveness on the international markets by artificially making the prices of their goods lower.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Somebody’ Finally Cares About Gold

Somebody’ Finally Cares About Gold

Grant Williams pithily summed up the situation that has been plaguing gold since 2013: Nobody Cares.

Yes, it’s highly likely that the price has been suppressed. But not enough buyers cared to fight the bullion bank/central bank cartel or make life difficult enough for the politicians — and thus, the regulators — to change things.

So gold languished. For years.

But last August, gold quietly entered a bull market after breaking above $1200.

As the price began rising (for both fundamental & technical reasons), we’ve been tracking its progress closely.  We do so on a daily basis via Peak Prosperity’s Precious Metals Daily Commentary updates (outstandingly authored by user davefairtex), as key developments happened via our premium reports (like this prediction), and via expert interviews such as our recent in-depth discussions with TFMetals and Incrementum’s Ronni Stoeferle.

As we entered 2019, the increasingly dovish/desperate policy retracements of the central banks — which now appear will NEVER normalize their balance sheets — have boosted the bull run.

Lower real interest rates are gold price-positive. And not only are real rates falling right now, there’s alreadycurrently $12 trillion in negative *nominal* debt trading worldwide right now:

Negative-yielding debt hits new record (Bloomberg)

And based on this week’s further dovish announcements from both the Fed and the ECB, we can expect more $trillions to be added to that pile soon.

On Tuesday, Mario Draghi apparently went rogue on his fellow policymakers and launched into a swan song version of his all-time hit “Whatever it takes”. The next day, Jerome Powell at the Fed confirmed his willingness to ease and let the market know he stands ready to cut rates multiple times over the next year.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ronni Stoeferle: In Gold We Trust

Ronni Stoeferle: In Gold We Trust

Why we may soon see prices of $1,500-1,600/oz

Fresh from releasing his exhaustive 340-page annual report titled In Gold We Trust, Ronald Stoerferle joins us to summarize his forecast for the yellow metal.

Stoerferle, an author of several books on Austrian economics and head of strategy and portfolio management at Incrementum AG, concludes that gold is poised to move explosively higher. He sees a new bull market beginning for the precious metal — one likely to quickly build momentum as the impending recession arrives and the world’s central banks revert to extreme easing policy measures.

We are all part of huge monetary experiments being conducted around the world. Right now, trust in the U.S. economy and in the Federal Reserve is still pretty high. We’re seeing the mantra of “deficits don’t matter” at the moment. And everybody thinks that the U.S. dollar is “the least dirty shirt”.

But this trust is crumbling. Recession clouds are getting darker and from my point of view there is no doubt that the Federal Reserve and the other major central banks will step in with very, very aggressive measures.This is actually what we’re seeing at the moment, with very sophisticated papers coming out from the Federal Reserve mentioning that negative rates would be quite favorable and have positive effects, along with comments from Donald Trump that the Fed should cut rates by 1% and do more QE. And other representatives are proposing that additional measures such as controlling the yield curve should be considered.

So from my point of view, we will see that the monetary policy u-turn that began in December will continue. That’s why gold has reacted so positively of late. We’re in the central bank zero interest rate trap — and there is no way out. Gold is a good hedge in this kind of environment.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

MORE TROUBLE IN MEXICO: Second Largest Silver Mine Suspended Operations

MORE TROUBLE IN MEXICO: Second Largest Silver Mine Suspended Operations

In just a little more than a week after the mighty Newmont-Goldcorp merger was finalized, the company suspended operations of its largest gold-silver mine in Mexico.  The Penasquito Mine, which produced more than a 500,000 ounces of gold and 25 million ounces of silver in a single year, has been dealing with a blockade of its operations since March 27th.

The blockade was started due to issues with the local community in regards to water supply concerns and problems with a trucking contractor.  However, the protests by the local community over water rights have been going on ever since the Penasquito Mine started operations in 2010.

According to the article, Goldcorp using excessive water at Peñasquito mine – critics, research by McGill Research Group, reported that the Penasquito Mine was using three times the amount of water than it originally agreed upon.  Furthermore, the large open-pit gold-silver mine, located in the state of Zacatecas, was also consuming three times the amount of water supplied to the entire City of Zacatecas (population 129,000).

To get an idea the amount of water being consumed by the Penasquito Mine, I looked at the data from Goldcorp’s most recent Sustainability Report. In 2017, the Penasquito Mine withdrew a staggering 7.9 billion gallons of water to supply its operations for the year.  Of that total amount, 93% came from groundwater. That is one hell of a lot of water.

It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the suspension to end.  However, with the election of the new President AMLO of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, large foreign mining companies in Mexico may find it increasingly challenging to GET THEIR WAY as they have in the past with the help of pro-mining leaders.

Regardless, the Penasquito Mine produced the second highest amount of silver in Mexico last year:

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Company Store

The Company Store

Leaves almost nothing to live on

In the song Sixteen Tons by Merle Travis (and made famous by Tennessee Ernie Ford), the idea of the ‘company store’ referred to a system of debt bondage that effectively trapped workers within an unfair system designed to harvest all of their labor at very low cost.

You load sixteen tons, what do you get?

Another day older and deeper in debt

Saint Peter don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go

I owe my soul to the company store

       Sixteen Tons – Merle Travis

How exactly did the company store system operate?

Under a scrip system, workers were not paid cash; rather they were paid with non-transferable credit vouchers that could be exchanged only for goods sold at the company store. This made it impossible for workers to store up cash savings.

Workers also usually lived in company-owned dormitories or houses, the rent for which was automatically deducted from their pay.

(Source – Wiki)

This model was simple enough to understand.  “Pay” your workers with scrip vouchers, then sell them your marked up goods at the company store, pocketing a nice profit. On top of that, force your employees to live in company housing, too,  also at terms very favorable to the company.

Add it all up and the workers found themselves in perpetual service to their employer. No matter how hard and long they toiled, there was nothing left for their own private benefit after all was said and done.  The company succeeded in skimming off any and all  ‘excess’ for itself.

This vast unfairness eventually led to the formation of unions as well as to regulations providing protection to the workers.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IT’S OFFICIAL; U.S. Silver Production The Lowest In More Than 70 Years

IT’S OFFICIAL; U.S. Silver Production The Lowest In More Than 70 Years

With the latest release by the USGS, silver production in the U.S. is now the lowest in more than 70 years.  We have to go all the way back until the year after World War II ended to see U.S. silver production less than it was in 2018.  While many reasons can be attributed to the decline, the main factors are falling ore grades and mine economics.

Unfortunately, there just aren’t too many economic silver deposits in the United States, especially with the high level of environmental and governmental regulations.  Instead of dealing with all the bureaucracy, companies are looking to Mexico and South America to open new silver projects.

Regardless, U.S. silver production declined by more than 100 metric tons last year, or 10% in 2018, mainly due to the ongoing closure of the Lucky Friday Mine in Idaho.  The Lucky Friday Mine has been shut down ever since the United Steelworkers went on strike on March 13, 2017.  However, the dropoff in silver mine supply can’t all be blamed on the Lucky Friday Mine.  Domestic silver production has been trending lower for the past two decades:

In 2000, the U.S. produced 63.7 million oz (1,980 metric tons) of silver compared to just 29.7 million oz (923 metric tons) last year.  Thus, U.S. silver production has fallen by more than 50% in less than two decades.  Silver production in the U.S. ramped up significantly during the 1990s due to the McCoy-Cove Silver Mine in Nevada.  At its peak, the McCoy-Cove Mine supplied 20% of the total U.S. silver production:

I don’t have a chart of U.S. silver mine supply over the past 100 years, but I checked the USGS data, and in 1946, the country produced only 713 metric tons (mt) of silver. 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NEW ERA OF THE MODERN PRECIOUS METALS INVESTOR: The Coming Pension Fund Disaster

NEW ERA OF THE MODERN PRECIOUS METALS INVESTOR: The Coming Pension Fund Disaster

Get ready for a new era of precious metals investor.  That’s correct.  Up until now, the primary buyer of gold and silver have been the older generation, 40-65+, but that will all change when the next financial crisis hits.  The Millennials, or those in the 23-38 age group, have participated less in the stock market than previous generations.  And, rightly so.

According to one study, Millennials preferred cash (30%) as their largest investment over stocks (23%).  This should be no surprise as the older Millennials have experienced two market crashes, the dotcom NASDAQ crash and the 2008 market meltdown within a decade.  Furthermore, the Millennials are likely very concerned and worried about the massive underlying debt and leverage in the system.  Of course, it is probably true that most Millennials don’t understand the details of the financial markets, but have an excellent innate ability to recognize that SOMETHING IS SERIOUSLY WRONG.

In my newest video update, New-Age Precious Metals Investor:  Pension Fund Disaster, I discuss how surprised I was to learn that the largest age group that followed the SRSrocco Report website were the Millenials, not the older generation.  Now if that wasn’t surprising enough, the next largest group of readers came from an even younger group, aged 18-24:

The chart comes from my Google Analytics dashboard so that you can thank Google for that statistic.  How on earth does Google know the demographics of my website, that is a subject matter for another day?  Regardless, while the mainstream media suggests that the younger generation are less interested in finances and politics, I actually believe they are hungry for GOOD INFORMATION.  Unfortunately, they will not find quality information in the mainstream press.  Which is precisely why many of the Millennials are quite concerned about the future and continue to question everything.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Silver & Barter Could Become the Alternative to Cryptocurrency

QUESTION: RE: ….& Coming Barter System.
So, are you suggesting that we may see a shift to Silver by private individuals as the only way to sidestep Government stupidity, or will it be even worse, like trading whiskey for toilet paper??

TWE

ANSWER: Assuming government attempts to follow the IMF’s advice and create cryptocurrencies to replace paper money, then the only alternative will be the barter system. To make this clear, the likelihood of the USA following this route is a last resort. It will NOT be the first, but the last. We will see this in Europe before we will ever see it in the USA.

This cannot be a question that is answered based upon OPINION, for we all have one. The only rational way to approach that question is to look at history and see how people responded to similar but not identical positions. What comes to mind in Japan. Each new emperor devalued the money issued his own coins worth 10x that of the coins of the previous emperor. People resorted to bags of rice and they used the coins of China. Everyone refused to use Japanese coins. The result was that Japan LOST the right to issue coins at all for 600 years.

Moving to a cryptocurrency to stop the underground economy from using paper money will simply switch it to foreign currency (dollars in Europe) or something commodity based. In federal prisons, when they banned smoking back in 2004, packs of mackerel industry became the prison currency. Everyone operated an internal economy. They used cigarettes as their currency of choice to purchase anything from food and home-brewed prison hooch. They also used books of stamps. Prisoners could ship books of stamps out and they could resell them at a discount.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

GET READY FOR TURBULENT MARKETS IN 2019: Gold & Silver To Outperform Most Assets

GET READY FOR TURBULENT MARKETS IN 2019: Gold & Silver To Outperform Most Assets

Investors should prepare for crazy and turbulent markets in 2019.  As the correction in the broader markets picks up speed and heads much lower, investor worry will start to turn into fear.  At this point, the precious metals will likely disconnect from the markets and move higher as investors move into gold and silver to protect wealth.

I discuss this in my newest video update: DOW, GOLD & SILVER:  Markets Disconnect In 2019.  In the video, I show how gold and silver rallied over the past month while the broader markets, copper, and energy sold off.  I believe the precious metals will continue to disconnect even further from the markets in 2019 and 2020.

In the video, I also describe the image below and why the U.S. Shale Oil Industry continues to lose money:

This shows the typical slick water shale frac completion layout and the massive amount of equipment and energy it takes to produce shale oil and gas.  The drilling rig has been removed, and the wellheads (in RED) receive an enormous amount of water, frac sand, and chemicals under high pressure from the 20 pressure pumping truck rigs.

Furthermore, I explain the following chart and why the gold price will continue to disconnect from the Dow Jones Index in 2019:

While I explain more technical analysis in the video, the fundamentals will still play a leading role in guiding the economy and markets over the next several years.  However, the technicals provide us with a crystal ball in how the prices will trade over this period.

The Big Picture: Paper Money vs. Gold

The Big Picture: Paper Money vs. Gold

Numbers from Bizarro-World

The past few months have been really challenging for anyone invested in gold or silver; for me personally as well. Despite serious warning signs in the economy, staggering debt levels and a multitude of significant geopolitical threats at play, the rally in risk assets seemed to continue unabated.

Bizarro-World intrudes into our reality, courtesy of central banks. [PT]

In fact, I was struggling with this seeming paradox myself. As I kept looking at the state of the markets, I couldn’t help but wonder “what if they just keep kicking the can down the road for the next 20 years, or even longer?”

Since the peak in 2011, gold and silver have been in a strong correction period and overall, prices haven’t benefited from all the trillions that have been injected into the markets since 2008. Total credit growth was approximately $80 trillion, climbing from $160 trillion to around $240 trillion in a mere 10 years.

The major central banks combined increased their balance sheet by buying government and institutional debt from $6 trillion to $21 trillion (FED, ECB, BOJ, PBoC), but none of it went into gold. However, even though these days we read and hear these numbers so often, it is still almost impossible for the true meaning of these sums to really sink in.

A trillion is hard to truly take in and understand; $80 trillion in debt is something already so far beyond our grasp that it might as well be $100, $200, or $300 trillion and it would almost make no conceptual difference. A good way to correct this dissonance is just think about the fact that 1 million seconds are 8 days, 1 billion seconds are 35 years and 1 trillion seconds translate into 32,000 years – bringing us back to the Stone Age.

Assets held by major central banks.

PBoC balance sheet

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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