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Opinion: Energy disruptions are now inevitable and most likely imminent — here are all the ways that could happen

March 1, 2022

Opinion: Energy disruptions are now inevitable and most likely imminent — here are all the ways that could happen

Pick your poison, but the end result is the same: Russian oil and natural gas will fall offline

More has gone horribly, horribly wrong in European-Russian affairs in the last week than in the 25 years I’ve been following them. It’s…impossible to sugar coat this. Energy breakdowns are inevitable, and most likely imminent.

Energy shortages could be accidental. Over the weekend, Russian artillery accidentally (?!) struck one of the Chernobyl hazardous material storage facilities. Oil and natural gas pipes, pumps and depots are not hardened.
Breakdowns could be intentional, with Moscow brandishing its energy power like a cudgel as it has done to great effect at so many points these past two decades.
Sanctions could trigger a payments failure; the Russian central bank is now under the broadest, deepest financial sanctions in history.
The disruption could be due to insurance; Lloyd’s of London was – rightly – spooked when Russian missiles struck non-Ukrainian vessels in the Black Sea, and is likely to cancel all maritime insurance in the area. Oil tankers included.
It could happen because of the Turks. Ankara has already invoked the Montreux Treaty, enabling it to halt the sailing of vessels through the Turkish Straits. That’s the route used by exports from southern Russian and northeastern Kazakh oil fields.
The Ukrainians could blow up their own pipes. Once the Russians fully occupy Ukraine, Ukrainian partisans will savage the infrastructure the Russians depend upon, both in Ukraine and neighboring Belarus.

Pick your poison, but the end result is the same: Russian oil and natural gas will fall offline. Some 1.5 million barrels of daily oil shipments and 3 billion cubic feet of natural gas are directly in the line of fire at this very moment, with triple that at risk in-region.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Bans Transactions With Russian Central Bank, Freezing Nearly Half Of Russia’s $630BN In Reserves

February 28, 2022

US Bans Transactions With Russian Central Bank, Freezing Nearly Half Of Russia’s $630BN In Reserves

Following in the footsteps of Europe, on Monday the Biden administration banned U.S. people and companies from doing business with the Bank of Russia, the Russian National Wealth Fund and the Ministry of Finance. The moves by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control will “effectively immobilize” any Russian central bank assets held in the U.S. or by U.S. nationals, according to a Treasury department statement.

According to the Treasury release, the U.S. also announced new penalties on a key Russian sovereign wealth fund, the Russian Direct Investment Fund, and its Chief Executive Officer, Kirill Aleksandrovich Dmitriev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The announcements marked the latest blow in the West’s financial retaliation against Russia following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and are designed to shake an already staggering Russian financial system.

“The unprecedented action we are taking today will significantly limit Russia’s ability to use assets to finance its destabilizing activities, and target the funds Putin and his inner circle depend on to enable his invasion of Ukraine,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.

The U.S. and EU blocks on the Russian central bank’s assets will immobilize nearly half of Putin’s warchest, according to a Treasury spokeswoman. Roughly 13% of the central bank’s reserves are held in China, she said.

Putin’s warchest is an estimated $630 billion in reserves, the officials said, and the measures are aimed at blocking his ability to sell those to mitigate financial pressure domestically. Russia’s own data published in January shows that $100 billion of the reserves were held in U.S. dollars as of June, however as Zoltan Pozsar noted overnight, there is over $200BN in swaps.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Pozsar Warns Of Another “Lehman Weekend” As Russia Sanctions May Trigger Central Bank Liquidity Flood

February 27, 2022

Pozsar Warns Of Another “Lehman Weekend” As Russia Sanctions May Trigger Central Bank Liquidity Flood

In a remarkable show of force and unity, western powers cast aside all their previous concerns about Russian energy supplies and uniliaterally announced the nuclear option of imposing sanctions on the Russian central bank coupled with targeted exclusions from SWIFT of key Russian banks.

*EU APPROVES BANNING ALL TRANSACTIONS WITH RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK

The move has sparked a bank run in Russia, as locals scramble to pull out whatever hard currency they can get their hands on before it runs out, and is certain to trigger chaotic moves in FX and commodities when markets reopen in a few hours. Already some Russian banks are offering to exchange rubles for dollars at a rate of 171 rubles per dollar on Sunday, compared to the official closing price of 83 on Friday before the European/US announcement about targeting the Russian central bank. In other words we are looking at a 50%+ devaluation of the Ruble. Additionally, widespread announcements of divestments in Russian equities by the likes of BP pls and the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund mean that the Russian market will be a bloodbath on Monday.

As Bloomberg notes, commodities are heading for a manic start to the week as investors scramble to assess how the West’s latest sanctions on Russia will affect flows of energy, metals and crops.

The coming days are fraught with event risk for crude, even aside from the sanctions fallout. There’s a midweek meeting of OPEC+ on output; the Biden administration may tap stockpiles; and Iranian nuclear talks look to be nearing a conclusion. On top of that, American crude inventories at the key Cushing hubcould sink to the lowest since 2014 if there’s another modest draw.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russian Central Bank buying Gold on the International market?

December 26, 2018

Russian Central Bank buying Gold on the International market?

For a number of years now and even more so during 2018, the central bank of the Russian Federation, the Bank of Russia, has remained in the spotlight as one of the world’s largest gold buyers, each month adding substantial amounts of gold to its monetary gold stockpiles.

Having bought another 37.3 tonnes of gold (1.2 million ounces) during November, and Bank of Russia now holds 2103 tonnes of monetary gold. On a year-to-date basis (for the 11 months from January to November 2018), the Russian central bank has added an incredible 264.3 tonnes of gold to its monetary reserve assets.

From January to November 2018, the Russian central bank has added 264.3 tonnes of gold to its reserves. Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

A key feature of the Russian gold market is that the Bank of Russia has a policy of sourcing its gold from domestic gold mining companies by using large Russian commercial banks such as Sberbank and VTB Bank as intermediaries.

The commercial banks finance the gold mining producers with development credits and loans. The miners then repay the banks with the gold they mine. After the gold is sent for refining to Russian gold refineries, the large commercial banks sell the refined gold (in bar form) to the central bank, which in turn stores the gold bars in the Bank of Russia’s storage vaults in Moscow and St Petersburg. Sounds simple in theory and even in practice. But this model only works smoothly as long as gold demand from the central bank is less than domestic gold mine supply. When demand is greater than supply, the marginal gold demand has to be sourced elsewhere.

All the mined gold and then some

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russian Central Bank Buys Gold – 600,000 Ounces Or 18.7 Tons In January As Venezuela Launches ‘Petro Gold’

February 22, 2018

Russian Central Bank Buys Gold – 600,000 Ounces Or 18.7 Tons In January As Venezuela Launches ‘Petro Gold’

– Russian central bank buys gold – large 600,000 ounces or 18.7 tons of gold in January
– Russia increased its holdings to 1,857 tons, topping the People’s Bank of China’s ‘reported’ 1,843 tons
– Russia surpasses China as 6th largest holder of gold reserves – after U.S., Germany, IMF, Italy and France
– Turkish central bank added 205 tons “over 13 consecutive months” – Commerzbank
– Meanwhile, Russian ally Venezuela is launching a new gold-backed cryptocurrency next week

Russia has overtaken China as the fifth-biggest sovereign holder of gold, allowing it to diversify its foreign currency holdings amid a deepening rift with the US, Bloomberg News’ Eddie van der Walt reported overnight.

The Bank of Russia increased its holdings in January by almost 20 metric tons to 1,857 tons, topping the People’s Bank of China’s reported 1,843 tons. While Russia has increased its holdings every month since March 2015, China last reported buying gold in October 2016. The U.S. is still the largest owner of gold, with 8,134 tons, much of it stored in Fort Knox.

Russia’s central bank continues to add gold to reserves while the People’s Bank of China remains on hold, pointed out Commerzbank.

Analysts cited news that the Russian central bank bought 600,000 ounces, or 18.7 tons, of gold in January as it continued to diversify its reserves. Analysts cite IMF data showing that Turkey also bought large quantities of gold in January at 560,000 ounces or 17.4 tons.

“Thus the Turkish central bank has topped up its gold reserves by a total of 205 tonnes over 13 consecutive months,” Commerzbank added.

Kazakhstan continues to buy gold in small quantities, as it has been doing steadily for years.

This goes some way to plugging the gap left by the Chinese central bank. The PBOC, meanwhile, has not reported the purchase of gold for 15 months in a row.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Glistening Gold & The Rumble In The Ruble – America’s “Tribute Scam” Is Unraveling Fast

January 31, 2016

Glistening Gold & The Rumble In The Ruble – America’s “Tribute Scam” Is Unraveling Fast

Before we discuss The Empire of Chaos ongoing attacks on “The Assassin Putin” and The Master of the Universe attempts to topple any challenge to Washington’s global hegemony, we thought the following chart may give some much needed context for where the pain really is – the drop in the oil price in local currency terms has been the least of all major nations… for Russia

While a case can be made that for Moscow it would be a tremendous waste of hard-earned foreign exchange to try to counter a rig against their currency they simply cannot beat, as the entire fiat financial power of the US is against them.

As Pepe Escobar via DoomsteadDiner.net notes, Russia’s Central Bank by now should be all-out selling rubles for gold, and building Russia’s gold reserves.

Well, it is happening, somewhat.

Last week, Russia’s Central Bank estimated gold reserves to have reached 1,415 metric tons in 2015 – over 17 percent more than 2014, valued at almost $48.6 billion. The share of monetary gold in Russia’s foreign currency reserves rose from 11.96 percent to 13.18 percent.

That’s still not good enough. Why? A harsh answer would be that the Russian Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, as some analysts argue, are in effect run by saboteurs and vassals of the US financial elite, a.k.a. the Masters of the Universe.

Still, the Russian Central Bank did not intervene to prop up the ruble. And they should not. The best course of action would be to let the ruble go, ending almost all imports, thus forcing self-sufficiency. Or introduce capital controls, with only approved transactions involving foreign currencies. It did work for Malaysia, for instance, after the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Forget about a China crash

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia’s Oil Industry

November 16, 2015

Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia’s Oil Industry

Russia’s central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oil price downturn.

The result is a heavier discount for Russia’s crude oil, the so-called Urals blend. Bloomberg reported that the Urals typically lands in Rotterdam, a major European destination, at a discount to Brent of around $2 or less. But the discount has widened to $3.50 lately due to increased competition from Saudi Arabia. “Oil supplies to Europe from Saudi Arabia are probably adversely affecting Urals prices,” the Russian central bank warned in a recent report.

Russian officials have accused Saudi Arabia of “dumping” its oil in Europe, a move that Rosneft chief Igor Sechin said would “backfire.”

Russia’s economy has been battered by the collapse in crude prices, compounded by the screws of western sanctions. The Russian economy could shrink by 3.2 percent this year.

Oil exports account for around half of the revenue taken in by the Russian government. And for an economy so dependent on oil, it is no surprise that the plummeting crude oil price has led to a dramatic depreciation of the ruble, although over the past month the currency regained some lost ground. The weakening currency has pushed up inflation, which creates a conundrum for the Russian central bank.

To stop the ruble from plunging further and to keep inflation from spiraling ever upwards, the Russian central bank took aggressive action by hiking interest ratesto as high as 17 percent at the beginning of 2015.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Moscow doubles down on Washington

October 20, 2015

Moscow doubles down on Washington

History may eventually decide the ‘New World Order’ started on September 28, when Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama had a 90-minute face off at the UN in New York.

Irrespective of spin – “productive” according to the White House, “tense”according to a source close to the Kremlin – facts on the ground accumulated almost immediately.

Putin did press Obama for the US to join Russia in a real grand coalition bent on smashing ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. The Obama administration, once again, relented. I detailed here what happened next: an earth-shattering game-changer in the ‘New Great Game’ in Eurasia, straight out of the Caspian Sea, that caught the acronym fest of US intelligence – not to mention the Pentagon – completely off-guard.

So this was Putin’s first message to Washington, and the Pentagon/NATO combo in particular; your fancy ideas of stationing tactical nuclear weapons or expanding missile defense to Eastern Europe, or even Asia-Pacific, are just a mirage. Our cruise missiles are capable of wreaking real effective havoc; and soon, as this piece argues, there will be more hypersonic, high-precision long-range missiles added to the mix.

Old habits don’t die hard – they remain in a coma forever. The Pentagon’s response to the facts launched from the Caspian Sea was to conduct an airdrop of light weapons to “a select group of vetted leaders and their units,” as in those famously non-existent Syrian “moderate rebels.” The weapons will inevitably be captured by assorted Salafi-jihadi goon outfits in no time.

Then the British government was forced to deny a Murdoch-controlled Sunday Times “report” that British Tornadoes in Syria are now armed with air-to-air missiles to counter potential Russian aerial “attacks.”

And to top it off, the proverbial “military experts” infesting US corporate media started spinning that we are only 30 seconds from World War III.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russian Bank Caught Using Fake Gold As Reserve Capital

September 12, 2015

Russian Bank Caught Using Fake Gold As Reserve Capital

Over the past several years, incidents involving fake gold (usually in the form of gold-plated tungsten) have emerged every so often, usually involving Manhattan’s jewerly district, some of Europe’s bigger gold foundries, or the occasional billion dealer. But never was fake gold actually discovered in the form monetary gold, held by a bank as reserve capital and designed to fool bank regulators of a bank’s true financial state. This changed on Friday when Russia’s “Admiralty” Bank, which had its banking licenserevoked last week by Russia’s central bank, was reportedly using gold-plated metal as part of its “gold reserves.”

According to Russia’s Banki.ru, as part of a probe in the Admiralty bank, the central bank regulator questioned the existence of the bank’s reported quantity of precious metals held in reserve. Citing a source, Banki.ru notes that as part of its probe, instead of gold, the “regulator found gold-plated metal.”

The Russian website further adds that according to “Admiralty” bank’s financial statements, as of August 1 the bank had declared as part of its highly liquid assets precious metals amounting to 400 million roubles. The last regulatory probe of the bank was concluded in the second half of August, said one of the Banki.ru sources. Another source claims that as part of the probe, the auditor questioned the actual availability of the bank’s precious metals and found gold-painted metal.

The website notes that shortly before the bank’s license was revoked, the bank had offered its corporate clients to withdraw funds after paying a commission of 30%. This is shortly before Russia’s central bank disabled Admiralty’s electronic payment systems on September 7.

Admiralty Bank was a relatively small, ranked in 289th place among Russian banks in terms of assets. On August 1 the bank’s total assets were just above 8 billion roubles, while the monthly turnover was in the order of 40-55 billion rubles. The balance of the bank’s assets was poorly diversified: two-thirds of the bank’s assets (4.9 billion rubles) were invested in loans. The rest of the assets, about 30%, were invested in highly liquid assets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia’s Central Bank Governor Is Way Smarter Than Ours

April 9, 2015

Russia’s Central Bank Governor Is Way Smarter Than Ours

It wouldn’t be a first, but it would certainly be a – bigger – shock. That is to say, the Bank of England hijacked the head of Canada’s central bank some time ago, but, while unexpected enough, that would pale in comparison to the US hiring the present Governor of the Russian central bank, Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina. It would still seem to be a mighty fine idea, though.

Not that I think it will happen, not to worry if you think Yellen is just what it takes at the Fed. But Nabiullina is both razor sharp and fiercely independent. Yellen is obviously neither; she’s a cog in a machine that huffs and puffs and pumps and dumps to make sure her overlords in the blissful world of US finance make ever more profit no matter how bad things get in American society.

There’s no need to be particularly sharp in order to play that role, and she was picked exactly because she’s NOT independent. Or let’s just say she’s a good listener.

Nabiullina is a whole different story. Not that I have much confidence in western readers understanding that this is so, let alone why. Not after the 24/7 highly public media campaigns and sanctions and oil price wars and Ukraine war talk and chest thumping directed at Putin and Russia, and after everything else that we don’t even know that plays out behind the veils.

Enjoy your conspiracies while you can, I’d say. Because despite more than a year of intense efforts to make Russia look like the empire of unspoken evil, financial markets, yes, the same ones Yellen manipulates at her lords’ bidding, have now made the Russian ruble and the Moscow stock exchange the biggest winners so far this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Putin Fingerprints Seen All Over Surprise Interest-Rate Reversal

January 31, 2015

Putin Fingerprints Seen All Over Surprise Interest-Rate Reversal

(Bloomberg) — The message some Russia watchers are getting from Friday’s surprise interest-rate cut is this: Start listening more to what President Vladimir Putin’s aides say about monetary policy and less to central bankers.

Here’s the key evidence. In comments made just nine days ago, the country’s central bank chief indicated she saw no chance of a rate cut any time soon after inflation soared to a five-year high. A week earlier, though, one of Putin’s most vocal economic aides urged the exact opposite, saying a reduction was needed to bolster the ailing economy.

So when the Bank of Russia shocked traders and analysts alike by announcing it was lowering the benchmark rate from an 11-year high, the words spoken by that aide, Andrey Belousov, left many to speculate that the Kremlin is exerting more pressure on central bank policy makers. The rate cut — to 15 percent from 17 percent — triggered a wave of ruble selling that drove the currency down as much as 4 percent, adding to a year-long selloff that’s left it down 50 percent percent against the dollar.

The rate cut “was useless — it will only put more pressure on credibility,” said Vladimir Miklashevsky, a strategist at Danske Bank A/S. “They change their mind so fast but the environment is not really changing. This move is pure giving in to pressure from society, pressure from the government.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Despite Surprise Rate-Hike, Russian Ruble Crashes Most In 6 Years | Zero Hedge

October 31, 2014

Despite Surprise Rate-Hike, Russian Ruble Crashes Most In 6 Years | Zero Hedge.

Yesterday’s record-breaking surge in the Ruble appears, as we warned, to have been front-running today’s rate-hike announcement… and despite its surprise size, it is disappointing the market. The 5%-plus swing higher in the Ruble yesterday has been notably retraced as the Russian currency plunges (biggest drop in almost 6 years) after the central bank hiked rates 150bps (expectations were broadly of a 50bps hike) but it appears the ‘whisper’ number was a 200bps hike and a shift in FX policy to more active intervention. The inituial rip rally instantly faded and despite low liquidity due to Russian holidays, USDRUB is back over 43 – which would be a new record low close if it holds.

Russian Central Bank disappointed…

*RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK RAISES KEY RATE TO 9.50% (up from 8%)
*BANK OF RUSSIA DOESN’T ANNOUNCE CHANGES TO FX POLICY
*BANK OF RUSSIA SEES SIGNS FOR SLOWING INFLATION IN MID-TERM
*BANK OF RUSSIA READY TO EASE IF EXTERNAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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Opinion: Energy disruptions are now inevitable and most likely imminent — here are all the ways that could happen

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