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Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Climax

FOURTH TURNING ACCELERATING TOWARDS CLIMAX “At some point, America’s short-term Crisis psychology will catch up to the long-term post-Unraveling fundamentals. This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market […]

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Fed Launches Repo Facility To Provide Dollars To Foreign Central Bank

Fed Launches Repo Facility To Provide Dollars To Foreign Central Bank With US dealers no longer using the Fed’s repo facilities (this morning we had another “no bid” overnight repo with just $250MM in MBS submitted for a $500 billion op) as the Fed soaks up all securities via its aggressive QE which is still […]

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Funding Freeze Getting Worse: Dealers Demand Record $216BN In Liquidity From Fed Repo

Funding Freeze Getting Worse: Dealers Demand Record $216BN In Liquidity From Fed Repo Yesterday, when showing the sudden spike in the FRA/OIS spread – a key gauge of banking-sector risk which measures dollar shortages – we warned that liquidity in the market is virtually nil quoting a host of traders who confirmed that it was next to […]

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This Wasn’t Supposed To Happen: One Day After Fed Rate Cut, Repos Signal Record Liquidity Shortage

This Wasn’t Supposed To Happen: One Day After Fed Rate Cut, Repos Signal Record Liquidity Shortage Yesterday morning, when we discussed the sudden spike in liquidity shortage that resulted in both a (record) oversubscribed term repo and the first oversubscribed overnight repo since the start of the repo crisis, we said that “if going solely by the […]

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No One Gets Out Of Here Alive

NO ONE GETS OUT OF HERE ALIVE “The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to […]

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State of Denial

State of Denial Once again investors are made to believe that nothing matters. Only 2 trading days after Friday’s sell off $NDX made new all time history highs. Only 3 days after Friday’s sell-off $SPX made a new all time closing high. Only 4 days after Friday’s sell off $DJIA, $SPX and $NDX make new […]

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The Impulses of Lunar Fed Policy Under Repo Madness

The Impulses of Lunar Fed Policy Under Repo Madness This week, while you were busy working, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, took time out from rubbing elbows with fellow movers and shakers at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to share his trepidations: “The only thing I have trepidation about is negative interest […]

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Some Other People Do Some Other Things

Some Other People Do Some Other Things An almighty bafflement befogs the nation as the first full business week of 2020 commences and events pile up like smashed vehicles on a weather-blinded highway. Before we even smoked that Iranian bird on the Baghdad airport tarmac, something ominous was tingling away in the financial markets, in […]

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Repocalypse: The Second Coming

Repocalypse: The Second Coming  This little monster that feeds beneath the surface of global banking at its core briefly raised one ugly eye out of the water as 2018 turned into 2019. I wrote back then that the interest spike we saw in the kind of overnight interbank lending known as repurchase agreements (repos) was […]

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“It’s Nuts” – The Fed Has Created A “Monstrous Beast Of Over-Inflated Valuation”

“It’s Nuts” – The Fed Has Created A “Monstrous Beast Of Over-Inflated Valuation” “Own risk assets…everywhere… everywhere” says Embark Group’s CIO Peter Toogood, exclaiming that “this is nothing to do with fundamentals anymore, fill your boots, why not?” After The Fed entirely flip-flopped from last year, the clearly frustrated manager notes the facts behind the so-called market, “flooding […]

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Fed’s Emergency Repo Operation Oversubscribed As Repo Rates Spike To December High

Fed’s Emergency Repo Operation Oversubscribed As Repo Rates Spike To December High Ahead of today’s massive liquidity drain, which according to some calculations will be as much as $100 billion between $54BN in coupon settlements from last week’s Treasury auctions and an additional $50 billion or so in corporate income tax payments to the Treasury… … which […]

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When It Becomes Serious You Have To Lie: Update On The Repo Fiasco

When It Becomes Serious You Have To Lie: Update On The Repo Fiasco Occasionally, problems reveal themselves gradually. A water stain on the ceiling is potentially evidence of a much larger problem. Painting over the stain will temporarily relieve the unsightly condition, but in time, the water stain will return. This is analogous to a […]

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“The Fed Was Suddenly Facing Multiple LTCMs”: BIS Offers A Stunning Explanation Of What Really Happened On Repocalypse Day

“The Fed Was Suddenly Facing Multiple LTCMs”: BIS Offers A Stunning Explanation Of What Really Happened On Repocalypse Day About a month ago, we first laid out how the sequence of liquidity-shrinking events that started about a year ago, and which starred the largest US commercial bank, JPMorgan, ultimately culminated with the mid-September repo explosion. Specifically […]

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GOLD & SILVER UPDATE: Setting Up For The Next Leg Higher In 2020

GOLD & SILVER UPDATE: Setting Up For The Next Leg Higher In 2020 The Day of Reckoning is coming, and it won’t be pretty for the overall markets.  While the Fed liquidity has pushed the major U.S. indexes to new highs, the underlying fundamentals in the economy continue to deteriorate.  Without the record amount of […]

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The Federal Reserve Is Directly Monetizing US Debt

The Federal Reserve Is Directly Monetizing US Debt In a very real way, MMT is already here Sure, it’s not admitting to this. And it’s using several technical jinks and jives to offer a pretense that things are otherwise. But it’s not terribly difficult to predict what’s going to happen next: the Federal Reserve will […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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