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Cracks In The World Economy Are Starting To Show

Cracks In The World Economy Are Starting To Show

Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week, with his updated take on the monetary miasma spreading across the globe.

For those that missed it, Larry also talked with me on my podcast just days ago. I believe him to truly be one of the muted voices that the investing community would be better off for considering. He’s the type of voice that gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.

Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts heading into Q4 2022. The letter has been edited ever-so-slightly for formatting, grammar and visuals.

This is Part 1 of his letter. Part 2 can be found here. 


In the third quarter, virtually all asset classes went for a roller coaster ride – a sharp bear market rally in  July and August, followed by a vicious sell off in September as the Fed continued its Hawkish tone at  Jackson Hole in late August and then raised the Fed Funds rate in September to 3.00-3.25%. Recall that  as recently as February 2022 Fed Funds was at 0.0-0.25%.

Year to date through 9/30/22, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down -24% and – 33%, respectively. Gold and Gold Miners (GDXJ) are down -9% and -30% year to date, respectively.  Bloomberg’s US Aggregate Bond Index is down -15%. Only the Bloomberg Commodity Index (broad  commodities like oil that are benefiting from inflation) is up year to date (+13.5%).

The Fed’s hawkishness has caused an enormous amount of wealth destruction. As the chart below shows,  US stocks and bonds have created a drawdown of $18 Trillion in the US equity and fixed income markets,  far worse than 2008 and 2020’s market value destruction….

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Who Is Really Spreading Misinformed Disinformation?

Who Is Really Spreading Misinformed Disinformation?

Ne’er has there been more fertile ground that exemplifies how those in charge of the narrative are either (1) grossly incompetent, (2) saying what they need to simply to suit their own agenda, or (3) both – than the topics of Covid, inflation, Trump’s non-existent Russian collusion and Hunter Biden’s laptop.

Because I have written extensively about these issues over the last year, I had been putting aside a collection of quotes from the “authorities” on each topic. I thought this morning I would release all the quotes I had put aside as one giant compendium showing just how important it is to automatically agree with whatever our masters in the mainstream media/government suggest to us.

Given that we now know almost definitively (in my opinion) that Covid came from a lab, that inflation is here to stay, that Trump didn’t collude with Russia and that the laptop was definitely authentic, enjoy this trip down memory lane.

  • “You’re not going to get Covid if you have these vaccinations.” – Joe Biden, July 2021
  • “Fact: Covid-19 is NOT airborne.” – World Health Organization, March 2020
  • “Now we know that the vaccines work well enough that the virus stops with every vaccinated person. A vaccinated person gets exposed to the virus, the virus does not infect them, the virus cannot then use that person to go anywhere else,” she added with a shrug. “It cannot use a vaccinated person as a host to go get more people. [Vaccines] will get us to the end of this.” – Rachel Maddow, March 2021
  • “When people are vaccinated they can feel safe that they won’t get infected, whether they’re outdoors or indoors.” – Dr. Anthony Fauci, May 2021
  • “From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual. It’s very rare.” – Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, March 2020

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Lying About The Economy Will Only Make The Coming Crash Worse

Lying About The Economy Will Only Make The Coming Crash Worse

I don’t know who needs to hear this. Wait, yes I do. The Biden Administration.

I really don’t know how to describe the disturbing trend over the last few months of the Biden administration, along with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, simply lying to the American people about the economy.

Months worth of political spin has culminated in embarrassing recent attempts to redefine the word “recession”: a futile effort to pull the wool over an American public that is growing increasingly suspect both Biden and Yellen’s competence to be overseeing the the country, and the economy, respectively.

By now, the administration’s pathetic falsehood of a narrative about our economy has been called out, ridiculed, dismantled and generally beaten to death by anyone with a shred of common sense.

However, there is something far more important that people aren’t talking about: the administration lying about the health of the economy could wind up exacerbating any financial crisis that we have in the near future.

Put simply, the more you tell people that “everything is fine” when it isn’t, the more surprised and shocked they are going to be when markets start to panic.

I don’t think a market crash is an outrageous scenario that has no chance of happening, either. I noted in my latest portfolio update that I thought the market could have a short-term rally based on the idea of participants thinking that the Fed is preparing to pivot.

But over the course of the longer-term, the rate hikes that have already been put into place are going to eventually make their way to the economic-narrative-foreground in the form of huge forthcoming aftershocks throughout the economy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia And China Officially Announce A “New Global Reserve Currency”

Russia And China Officially Announce A “New Global Reserve Currency”

And once again, as happens often with consequential news in the United States and the West, no one has noticed and no one seems to care.

If you’ve blinked over the last month, you may have missed it…

China and Russia are taking their shot at the U.S. dollar. And as often happens with consequential news in the United States and the West, no one seems to notice or even care.

Since the beginning of the year, I have been writing about the possibility of Russia and China challenging the US dollar’s global reserve status. Now, it’s happening.

It shouldn’t be any surprise to those paying attention that Russia and China are strengthening their economic ties amidst continued Western sanctions on Russia as a result of the country’s war in Ukraine.

What may surprise some people, however, is that Russia and the BRICS countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are officially working on their own “new global reserve currency,” RT reported in late June. Nobody even seemed to notice.


“The issue of creating an international reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of our countries is being worked out,” Vladimir Putin said at the BRICS business forum last month.

And of course, as Russia has been cut off from the SWIFT system, it is also pairing with China and the BRIC nations to develop “reliable alternative mechanisms for international payments” in order to “cut reliance on the Western financial system.”

In the meantime, Russia is also taking other steps to strengthen the alliance between BRIC nations, including re-routing trade to China and India, according to CNN:

President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russia is rerouting trade to “reliable international partners” such as Brazil, India, China and South Africa as the West attempts to sever economic ties.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Market Is “On The Edge Of A Huge Collapse”

The Market Is “On The Edge Of A Huge Collapse”

This week I had a chance to interview my friend Andy Schectman, President & Owner of Miles Franklin Precious Metals, a company that has done more than $5 billion in sales.

Andy is a world-renowned expert in the field of precious metals and took the time to answer some pressing questions I had about the global economic picture, metals and markets in general.

This interview is not an advertisement; I sought out Andy’s opinion because I believe him to be a thought-leader in the space of metals and monetary policy.

Here is my unedited conversation with Andy from this week:

Hi, Andy. First off, what do you make of China shutting itself down again for Covid this recent time. They may be starting to lift restrictions now, but is there any chance they are doing this on purpose and it’s unrelated to Covid, in your opinion?

Well that would certainly add to the price inflation in the west and perhaps force the hand of the Fed a bit faster, but I would like to think they are not that stupid.

You can see the massive unrest and anger from their population being forced to lock down. It seems that the Chinese probably created Covid in the Wuhan lab but I am not sure they deliberately released it.

As you can see, once let out of the bottle, it goes everywhere, even through lockdowns.

Regardless, when do you think China will return to some normalcy?

Normalcy? Not sure we will ever see normalcy as long as the communist party runs the show. However, Covid will burn itself out and the lockdowns will end but it could take months.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Putin Knows The Monetary System Is A Credit Based Ponzi Scheme: Lawrence Lepard

Putin Knows The Monetary System Is A Credit Based Ponzi Scheme: Lawrence Lepard

Larry also lays out 4 key catalysts for higher gold, silver and bitcoin prices.

Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter a few days ago with his updated take on the seismic changes occurring in monetary policy globally as a result of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

He takes us through history as to how this landscape has changed in the past, and what could be coming in years ahead.

Larry had joined me for several interviews last year and I believe him to truly be one of the muted voices that the investing community would be better off for considering. He’s the type of voice that gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.

Lawrence Lepard (Photo: Kitco)

Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his most recent thoughts. Part 2 is below and Part 1 can be found at this link.

In Part 1, Larry reminded us of the history and structure of the world monetary system, starting in 1944 and ending in 1980, and how he uses that to make his investment decisions.

In Part 2, he picks up around 1980 and discusses current problems the Fed has.


1980-Present Gold Market 

In the chart below, you can see the effect that Paul Volcker’s policies had on the dollar price of gold. By pushing interest rates up to 20%, he managed to cool inflation and ultimately stop it. This brought the gold price back to the $260 to $400 range where it lived for quite some time.

The 1980’s and 1990s were marked by a period of dis-inflation and ultimately deflation given technological innovations and productivity gains from Microsoft, Intel and the like in the 1980s, and then the Internet in the 1990s…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Dollar Dethroned: We Have Reached The End Of Monetary Policy As We All Once Knew It

The Dollar Dethroned: We Have Reached The End Of Monetary Policy As We All Once Knew It

And the world hasn’t even noticed yet.

People who speak out openly with concern about the potential death of the U.S. dollar have been written off as conspiracy theorists for the better part of the last few decades.

But looking back, unfortunately, I’m sure history is going to be kind to these people and their prognostications. They will have been the ones who sounded the alarm in a relatively short amount of time before ultimately being proven right.

I don’t say this to brag or boast in advance in any way, I say it because I truly believe we are at the “beginning of the end” of the Keynesian economic experiment.


Less than two weeks ago, I wrote an article proclaiming that Russia would back the ruble with gold as a way to fight back against Western economic sanctions. I also made similar predictions about the new digital Chinese currency last summer when I first started Fringe Finance.

To me, since I began piecing together my understanding of macroeconomics and the global economy about a decade ago, it had become painfully obvious that the fiat system the U.S. plays by, which hinges on the dollar being the global reserve currency, had its days numbered.

The catalyst that is helping hurl us toward our monetary rude awakening faster than ever has been the war in Ukraine. Actually, it hasn’t been the war so much as it has been the West’s reaction to the war. As only blindly arrogant believers in the Keynesian dog-and-pony show could do, we rushed to cut Russia off the SWIFT system, limited investing in Russia companies and sanctioned the country’s oligarchs.

To which Russia basically replied, “OK. We still have the oil.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Putin Driving Up Oil Prices Is An “Outrageous Lie”: USF Geology Professor Dr. Marc Defant

Putin Driving Up Oil Prices Is An “Outrageous Lie”: USF Geology Professor Dr. Marc Defant

“I read a lot of the literature on global warming and for AOC to come out and say 2 or 3 years ago that the world was going to end in 12 years – that’s just hysterical craziness.”

About two weeks ago, I published an interview with Dr. Marc Defant about why he thought President Biden’s oil policies were “bat-shit crazy” and creating more turmoil than they were helping alleviate problems in markets.

This past weekend, I was happy to welcome him onto my podcast for a discussion about the current state of energy in the U.S., including pros and cons of natural gas, fracking, shutting down pipeline projects in the U.S. and the cost benefit analysis of extreme activist environmentalists.

Why We are Alone in the Galaxy | Marc Defant | TEDxUSF - YouTube

Dr. Marc J. Defant is a professor of geology/geochemistry at the University of South Florida. He worked for Schlumberger Well Services and Shell Oil for three years, with two years at Shell working as an exploration geologist.

He has been funded by the National Science FoundationNational Geographic, the American Chemical Society, and the National Academy of Sciences, and has published in many internationally renowned scientific journals including Nature. He has written a book entitled Voyage of Discovery: From the Big Bang to the Ice Age and published several articles for general readership magazines such as Skeptic and Popular Science and appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast. You can reach him via this contact form.

First, we talked about how the price of oil got so high to begin with.

Dr. Defant told me: “Gas was up 40% and oil was up 80% before the Ukrainian war started. What got me a little incensed was that Biden is going around saying the price of gasoline is due to to Putin.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

While You Weren’t Paying Attention, The Hunter Biden Laptop Story Turned Out To Be True & Zero Media Outlets Have Been Held Accountable

While You Weren’t Paying Attention, The Hunter Biden Laptop Story Turned Out To Be True & Zero Media Outlets Have Been Held Accountable

The laptop story coverage tells you everything you need to know about the journalistic integrity of large media outlets in this country.

It turns out that the party who spent four years accusing President Trump of Russian collusion performed a massive cover-up for Joe and Hunter Biden heading into the 2020 election that they have yet to be held accountable for. Go figure.

I remember speaking to my father around the time of the election about the Hunter Biden laptop story, where presidential candidate Joe Biden’s son’s laptop was found to contain proof that the former Biden sold his influence to China while his father, the latter Biden, was Vice President of the United States.

And in the midst of an ongoing media cover up of that story, I also remember talking to my father about former Hunter Biden business partner Tony Bobulinski coming forward and blowing the whistle on the Bidens in an effort to get the public to take notice.

Instead, Bobulinski was only given airtime by Fox News’ Tucker Carlson and was otherwise shunned and ignored by the rest of the left-leaning media.

Plausible deniability': Tony Bobulinski says Joe Biden knew about Hunter  Biden's China deal pursuits | Washington Examiner
Source: Fox News

We both had watched Bobulinski’s interview and found him to be extremely credible.

I remember my father saying that the censorship of the story and the story itself could, combined, be the biggest political scandal of all time. This caught me by surprise because my father, who has voted both Democrat and Republican over the last handful of elections, has lived through quite a few scandals.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflation Is The Kryptonite That Will End Our Decades-Long Monetary Policy Ponzi Scheme

Inflation Is The Kryptonite That Will End Our Decades-Long Monetary Policy Ponzi Scheme

“It means buckle your seatbelt Dorothy, because Kansas is going bye-bye.”

The linchpin that allows the world’s nefarious central banking model to be so effective is that the commonfolk – the plumber, the electrician, the teacher, the bartender, bus driver or barber – don’t understand it.

Countless times, I have reminded my readers and listeners that the inflationary “machinery of night” blankets the most regressive tax possible upon the people who can least afford it, and does so in an extraordinarily convenient way for elites, politicians, central bankers and central planners whose titles and “jobs” hinge upon nobody questioning them and/or figuring out how the system works in the first place.

Today, the fabric of our modern banking world is held together by a logical fallacy of a system, wherein central banks are afforded the asinine luxury of being able to print infinite amounts of “money”, which is then disproportionately distributed toward the ruling class, billionaires, and elites, instead of the people who need it the most.

This shows up, literally, as a widening gap between the “haves” and the “have nots” that has widened consistently since the late 1970’s.

As a result of the most recent re-distribution of purchasing power disguised as “monetary stimulus” during the Covid-19 “crisis”, billionaires amassed an additional $4.1 trillion of wealth during a period of time in which the World Bank estimates that “some 100 million people have fallen into extreme poverty,” Bloomberg reported, in conjunction with the World Inequality Report, in December.

As I have asked many times, when the Fed considers stimulating by printing trillions: why not just divide up the money evenly amongst everybody in the country? Why must it be re-balanced and then deployed in a fashion that benefits those who already own financial assets?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

The Mainstream Media Is Losing The Fight Of Its Life…All Thanks To Joe Rogan

The Mainstream Media Is Losing The Fight Of Its Life…All Thanks To Joe Rogan

I’m expecting one of the largest mainstream media pivots in history in 2022, catalyzed by capitalism and common sense

A couple of things all happened together over the last 48 hours.

First, I came up with the idea of writing 100 predictions for the year 2022 – a blog post that I might still wind up finishing at some point. And second, I listened to the Joe Rogan Experience podcast interview of mRNA inventor Dr. Robert Malone, M.D., hours after the doctor was banned from Twitter for having opinions on Covid that stood at odds with the mainstream narrative.

The opinions that Malone echoed during his Rogan appearance included, but were not limited to:

  • Calling the government “out of control” and “lawless” in their Covid response
  • Stating mandates of “experimental” vaccines are “explicitly illegal”
  • Noting that India had success in treating Covid early with drugs like ivermectin
  • Saying “half a million” excess deaths have occurred due to government actions
  • Arguing those with natural immunity have higher risk of vaccine adverse events
  • Alleging that people are living through a mass formation psychosis

I’m not going to rehash all of the doctor’s points about Covid, but instead will say that I believe he made an extraordinary amount of thoughtful points that the mainstream media and “big tech” are too scared (and/or too stupid) to touch on themselves.

You can watch clips and read a full writeup of Malone’s interview here and read a detailed thread of the interview here.

Among the 100 predictions I was going to make in my blog post was going to be calling for a drastic shift in the mainstream media in the coming year. Instead of 100 predictions, I decided to instead write this piece.

Here’s how it came to be.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

When The Global Monetary Reset Happens, Don’t You Dare Forget Who To Blame

When The Global Monetary Reset Happens, Don’t You Dare Forget Who To Blame

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

“What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there, like a splinter in your mind, driving you mad. It is this feeling that has brought you to me. Do you know what I’m talking about?”

-Morpheus, The Matrix

Many of these people, myself included, know deep down that something went horribly askew when we were taken off the gold standard in 1971.

And today, many people witnessing soaring inflation are starting to feel their spider senses tingle even more: something is definitely wrong with “the system”.

But not everybody can put their finger on exactly what is wrong. This is what makes our system so nefarious to begin with: its complexity. It’s also why I try to explain these feelings for people in podcasts like my most recent one discussing why now must be the time we start to discuss inflation seriously.

Source: Forbes

Left unchecked by gold, it took us less than half a century to destroy our currency, run production out of the U.S., become reliant on importing almost everything we use on a daily basis, turn the country into a third world country and run up a nearly $30 trillion national tab, all while the Fed has stacked almost $10 trillion in subprime crap onto its balance sheet.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“We’re Near The Very End”: Lawrence Lepard On Bitcoin, Gold & The Coming Crash

“We’re Near The Very End”: Lawrence Lepard On Bitcoin, Gold & The Coming Crash

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

This is part 1 of an exclusive Fringe Finance interview with fund manager Lawrence Lepard, where we discuss the state of the economy, gold, bitcoin, catastrophic outcomes for the market, the supply chain in the country and more.

Lawrence Lepard (Photo: Kitco)

Larry manages the EMA GARP Fund, a Boston based investment management firm. Their strategy is focused on providing “Monetary Debasement Insurance”. He has 38 years experience and an MBA from Harvard Business School. On Twitter he is @LawrenceLepard.

Q: Hi, Larry. Thanks for joining me today. I wrote earlier this week about why I thought the NASDAQ could be primed for a crash. Let’s get right into it off the bat: what do you think could be the most likely catalyst for a market crash right now?

A: Very hard to say, think of it as like an avalanche. What snowflake is going to be the last one before it breaks free?

The market is insanely overvalued, but until now has proven that what is insane can become more insane. So you can’t short it. Frankly all price signals are broken and we could be in a “crack up boom”.

I do see signs of weakness (Evergrande, yield curve heading toward inversion, Fed reducing QE won’t help). Personally I think we are near the end and close to a crash, but I have thought that for some time and have obviously been wrong.

Inflation coming in hot and being persistent is probably the most likely catalyst. Inflation will reduce profit margins and will make the current multiples look even more insane. Catalyst: psychology changes. Technically upward momentum has slowed. I think we are very near the end.

What do you think could be the LEAST noticed cause for a crash?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why We Could Be Staring Down The Barrel of A Catastrophic NASDAQ Crash And Not Even Know It

Why We Could Be Staring Down The Barrel of A Catastrophic NASDAQ Crash And Not Even Know It

Covid. Gamma. Options. Is it any wonder we haven’t noticed that we are teetering on the edge just yet?

It would certainly take a special confluence of factors for us to be staring down the barrel of a an unprecedented crash in tech stocks without noticing it’s coming. But I’m starting to entertain the idea that that is exactly where we are, we may not know how much pain we are truly in for – and we might not fathom how quickly it could come on and surprise us.

For a little while now my friend on Twitter @rosemontseneca has been quietly pontificating that we are living 1999 all over again, we just don’t notice it yet. I’m starting to seriously agree with him and I have been thinking to myself over the past week: “Why aren’t other people making this comparison yet? Stocks are extremely overvalued. What’s ‘different this time’?”

Indeed, I believe the next crash is going to come as a breakneck-style surprise. If I had a chance to publish this piece before Halloween, I was going to make the analogy of somebody sneaking in the back door of the house and waiting around the corner in the kitchen to hack us to death when we went to make our “stoned-in-our-underwear at 2AM” bologna sandwich. But instead I wound up going with the gun analogy for the title because I was too lazy to get this article out in the month of October.

Halloween Kills' Review: A Nostalgic Mix Tape Of Previous Michael Myers  Sequels
“Bologna sandwich, anyone?” / Photo: Halloween Kills

But analogies aside,  the point is still the same: the next big market plunge could be any day now, and will likely be led by tech. Let me explain my reasoning.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Transitory” Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

“Transitory” Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

The Washington Post published an op-ed urging Americans dealing with product shortages to lower their expectations. My response? Don’t settle. Failed policies have our country devolving.

There’s no doubt our country has all of a sudden slipped into the most precarious state we’ve been able to readily confirm with our own two eyes in decades.

We are suffering from runaway inflation, we have a monstrous labor shortage, and products we normally would have abundant access to are missing from store shelves. The country doesn’t produce anything anymore, we have doubled our Central Bank’s balance sheet in under two years and the money supply has gone parabolic.

Four reasons Americans are still seeing empty shelves and long waits for  many products | MinnPost
Source: Minn Post

And engineering solutions for these issues requires correctly identifying where the problem is coming from to begin with. It appears we can either go one of two directions when we try to deduce the cause of these issues.

The first direction we can go in is to point to monetary and fiscal policy and look at their direct effects on the state of the country and our economy. This, I believe, is the pragmatic approach to solving the issues our nation faces.

The second direction, according to a new Washington Post op-ed, is apparently to blame and shame ourselves for being greedy and assuming that we ever deserved such a quality of life to begin with.

The Post recently published a piece called “Opinion: Don’t rant about short-staffed stores and supply chain woes”, which put this argument on the table, basically telling people to shut up and be thankful for the little they have.

Source: WaPo

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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