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Covid, Economy & Election: QTR On Peak Prosperity
Covid, Economy & Election: QTR On Peak Prosperity
Last week I was interviewed by the great Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity in a wide ranging interview that covered topics like Covid, the economy and the political future of the country.
Chris was one of the only people during the onset of Covid who was looking through the mainstream media’s narrative and was doing his own research. He has a PhD in neurotoxicology from Duke University, and an MBA from Cornell University.
Video of our full 2 hour interview is at the bottom of this article.
“Without necessary guardrails and consequences the failed leadership of DC and the Fed have taken us down a paths that had a binary outcome; bad and worse,” Chris writes on his site describing our interview.
First we covered the suppression of ivermectin and other drugs during the beginning of Covid. Chris asked me about whether or not blackballing these drugs had to do with getting the vaccines to market.
I told him: “That was a conspiracy theory back in 2021: they needed to shut you up about hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin so that they could utilize the EUA.”
“Now, looking back, it’s not a conspiracy theory; it’s the leading cause. I mean, applying Occam’s Razor 99 times out of 100, that’s the answer you’re going to arrive at—not that anybody on your channel doesn’t already know this. You’re a grown adult; you probably know to some degree the answer is pretty much always ‘follow the money.’,” I told him.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article….
What Really Happened: Lockdown Until Vaccination
What Really Happened: Lockdown Until Vaccination
“…in April of 2020, I got a call from Rajeev Venkayya…he told me on the phone to stop writing about lockdowns…”
Four years later, many people are investigating how our lives were completely upended by a pandemic response. Over my time on the case, I’ve heard countless theories. It was Big Tech, Big Pharma, Big Finance, the Green New Deal, the CCP, Depopulation, Get Trump, Mail-In Ballots, and so on.
There is evidence to back them all.
The problem with having so many pieces of evidence and so many theories is that people can too easily get thrown off track, going on wild goose chases. It’s too much to follow through consistently, and this allows the perpetrators to hide their deeds.
For such situations, we can take recourse to Occam’s razor: the best explanation is the simplest one that explains the maximum number of facts. This is what I offer here.
Those in the know will be shocked by nothing herein. Those not in the know will be amazed at the audaciousness of the entire scheme. If it is true, there are surely documents and people who can confirm this. At least this model of thinking will assist in guiding thinking and research.
There are three parts to understanding what took place.
First, in late 2019 and perhaps as early as October, higher-ups in the biodefense industry and perhaps people like Anthony Fauci and Jeremy Farrar of the UK became aware of a lab leak at a US-funded bioweapons lab in Wuhan. This is a place that does gain-of-function research to produce both the pathogen and the antidote, just like in the movies. It’s gone on for decades in possibly hundreds of labs but this leak looked pretty bad, one with a fast-transmitting virus believed to be of high lethality.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Medical Elites’ Disgrace Over Ivermectin
Medical Elites’ Disgrace Over Ivermectin
“We know there is an important (but untransparent) list of who is responsible for misrepresenting published data, but will anyone be held accountable?”
In the wake of the FDA settling a lawsuit brought against it for wantonly and aggressively smearing ivermectin, the agency has deleted its postings. That’s good, but we shouldn’t forget how egregiously it mischaracterized the drug, ignored copious evidence in its favor, and portrayed its proponents as dangerous crackpots.
About 30 months ago, America’s FDA was publishing articles with headlines like this: “Should I take ivermectin to treat COVID?” Answer: No. The agency also told Americans not to use ivermectin to prevent Covid. Then, in what became known as its infamous “horse tweet,” the FDA even patronizingly told Americans: “Seriously, y’all. stop it.”
Prescribers who advocated for alternate treatments like ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine were mocked online by America’s “trusted journalists” as being part of a “right-wing conspiracy” and labeled “hucksters.” Those who didn’t demure to the Covid mRNA or other Big Pharma treatment narratives were banned, fired, and spoken harshly about around the world and into the reaches of the stratosphere in what seemed like coordinated messaging.
Many clinicians lost their jobs – at best. At worst, their reputations, practices, finances, and careers were shattered. If that was not bad enough, after losing their jobs, state medical and pharmacy boards initiated legal proceedings against their licensure, singling out their “off-label” Covid treatments, despite other off-label treatments being a near-ubiquitous component of pharmacy and medical practice.
Within days of FDA’s initial postings above, the American Pharmacist’s Association (APhA) the American Society of Health System Pharmacists (ASHP), and the American Medical Association (AMA) all collaborated to release a joint press release condemning doctors who prescribed ivermectin to treat Covid, but it appears that these organizations…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
New Inflation Floor Will Be 3%: Mark Spiegel
New Inflation Floor Will Be 3%: Mark Spiegel
Mark’s updated take on the market’s valuation and his longstanding bet against Tesla.
Friend of Fringe Finance Mark B. Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital released his most recent investor letter on April 30, 2024, with his updated take on the market’s valuation and his longstanding bet against Tesla.
Mark is a recurring guest on my podcast and definitely one of Wall Street’s iconoclasts. I just spoke with him about 2 weeks ago:
Tesla’s Robotaxi Is “Obviously Bullshit”: Mark Spiegel
I read every letter he publishes and thought it would be a great idea to share them with my readers.
Like many of my friends/guests, he’s the type of voice that gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.
Mark was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts from his April 2024 investor letter (edited slightly for length and grammar by QTR). This letter also contains positions his fund has on, both long and short.
Mark On Markets And The Economy
This month’s gain was due to a decline in the S&P 500 (which we’re short via SPY & VOO), partially offset by a gain in the price of our Tesla short position (despite that company’s fundamentally disastrous April), accompanied by a drop in the price of our Volkswagen long position. I discuss VW and Tesla later in this letter, so let’s talk about the S&P which, despite this month’s slight correction, is still very expensive.
In the far-right column below from Standard & Poor’s are the 12 most recent quarterly operating earnings for the S&P 500 (with Q1 2024 estimated with 51% of companies having reported) and, in the middle column, the price of the S&P 500 as of that date. (The S&P 500 is now at 5035.)
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
If Treasury Bonds Hit 5%, You’re Gonna See Some Serious Sh*t
If Treasury Bonds Hit 5%, You’re Gonna See Some Serious Sh*t
Almost as if all of us Austrian Economists (read: any carbon based life form using common sense when it comes to finance) live in an echo chamber together, a third expert I respect came out over the last few days and has warned that 5% on the 10 year treasury would be the breaking point for markets and the economy.
If my calculations are correct, when this thing hits 5%…you’re going to see some serious sh*t.
Peter Schiff now argues that the Federal Reserve and US Treasury are being forced to confront the reality that inflation is persistent, which has led to an increase in yields, recently reaching 4.7% on the 10 year, the highest since November.
The thought process, for financial neophytes, is that bond traders will continue to sell bonds, driving yields up, in order to make it difficult for the Fed to cut rates — and essentially forcing the Fed to fight inflation head-on instead of capitulating to the economy and markets (should they crash).
This follows Jack Boroudjian’s analysis from last week, stating that rates will keep drifting higher and that 5% to 5.5% is the danger zone: Yields To Trigger “Serious Earthquakes” Across Economy: Jack Boroudjian
It also follows Harris Kupperman’s similar take: Bond Market About To Have An “Aneurism”: Harris Kupperman
Put simply, the Fed faces a dilemma: it needs to raise rates to combat inflation and make Treasuries more appealing, but higher rates would exacerbate the already burdensome debt servicing costs and threaten industries reliant on borrowing. Or, to use the parlance of my recent interview with Matt Taibbi, higher rates simply serve up another day of “sh*t burgers” to the economy, whereas lower rates act as rocket fuel for economic activity (and market confidence).
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Taxing Unrealized Gains Would Obliterate The U.S. Economy
Taxing Unrealized Gains Would Obliterate The U.S. Economy
The reasoning is so simple, a fifth grader could understand it – which is probably why the Biden administration doesn’t.
Having used up all of the rest of the batshit, insane, counterintuitive economic dirty tricks left in the “we’ll literally do anything but cut spending” bag, the Biden administration is pushing what could be the most destructive idea for our country since prohibition: taxing unrealized gains.
As part of its budget proposal for the 2025 fiscal year, the Biden administration is trying to raise an addition $4.3 trillion over 10 years in the worst way possible: imposing a minimum tax equal to 25 percent of a taxpayer’s taxable income and unrealized capital gains less the sum of their regular tax, for taxpayers with wealth over $100 million.
Putting aside the fact that this high-risk idea only amounts to a pittance, $430 billion per year (25% of which we just sent to foreign nations over the weekend in one fell swoop of a pen and it’s only April), the introduction of taxing unrealized gains could be one of the worst slippery slopes we ever dare to roll our country’s economy down.
I mean, shit, we could save $1 trillion just by not sending $100 billion a year to other nations for starters. But I digress. For an outline of exactly what an unrealized gains tax is, here’s the American Institute on Economic Research:
A tax on unrealized capital gains means that individuals are penalized for owning appreciating assets, regardless of whether they have realized any actual income from selling them.
If you purchased a stock for $100 this year, for example, and it increased to $110 next year, you would pay the assigned tax rate on the $10 capital gain. You didn’t sell the asset, so you don’t realize the $10 appreciation, but must pay the tax regardless.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Kick Back, Watch It Crumble
Kick Back, Watch It Crumble
Monetarily and fiscally there seems to be no other way to describe our government’s actions other than willingly and excitedly driving the country full speed ahead toward the death of the dollar.
The title to this post comes from one of my favorite NOFX songs, Dinosaurs Will Die.
While I’m sure the band in absolutely no way agrees with most, if not all, of my political leanings, the critiques they raise about the music industry in the song could serve just as well as many of the questions I want to ask of legacy mainstream media and politicians from both sides of the aisle in our government.
Leading those questions, for me, is this one: Doesn’t it elicit a hopeless feeling sometimes that we always have to learn the hard way in this country?
Few things are surer than taxes and death, but one of them is that our powers that be will make up any excuses necessary, scapegoat anything possible, and generally exercise every single possible wrong decision before reluctantly realizing that a consequential, uncomfortable yet important, proactive adult decision needs to be made and/or communicated to the American public.
Nobody ever wants to fess up to doing something wrong and nobody has a tolerance for even an ounce of discomfort, even when it accompanies an obvious decision that is in the best interest of our nation.
There have been too many examples in recent memory to name, but one of the latest bouts of us acting like a scared 6 year old with an aversion to reality was the farce of the Fed and Biden administration constantly telling the nation that inflation was transitory, when that has turned out to be the polar opposite of the truth.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“The Federal Reserve Is Clearly Trapped”: Lawrence Lepard
“The Federal Reserve Is Clearly Trapped”: Lawrence Lepard
Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week.
Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week. He gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.
Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts heading into Q2 2024. The letter has been edited ever-so-slightly for formatting, grammar and visuals.
QUARTERLY OVERVIEW
Globally, the stock markets continued their 45-degree angle rise during the first quarter. Crude oil, and commodities broadly, also had a stair-step rise consistently during the quarter. Gold and silver and the miners were an interesting dichotomy. Bullion prices were flat to slightly down in January and February, and the miners were clobbered during those early months of Q1. However, in March the price of gold broke through the long-standing $2,070 ceiling and the miners responded, driving the Fund up by 25.4%. Gold miner indices were down 17% in the first two months before the March move.
Note that the gold mining stocks still have not provided any leverage to the price of gold. In fact, in the first quarter they did not even keep pace with the increase in the price of gold. With gold up 8.1% in the quarter, the gold mining indices were up 2%. Typically, gold miners provide 2x to 3x leverage in terms of returns; so with gold up 8%, the miners would typically have been up 16% to 24%. This supports our thesis that the miners are still undervalued and are going to mean revert with a vengeance as this bull market in gold continues. The gold mining shares have a long way to go before they reflect fair value.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Biden’s Inflation Narrative Dies as Price Growth Rises to a Seven-Month High
Biden’s Inflation Narrative Dies as Price Growth Rises to a Seven-Month High
“…we can expect the administration and the regime in general to continue gaslighting the public and claiming that greedy capitalists cause inflation.”
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest price inflation data, CPI inflation in March rose to a seven-month high, and price inflation hasn’t proven nearly as transitory as the regime’s economists have long predicted.
According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 3.5 percent year over year during March, without seasonal adjustment. That’s the thirty-seventh month in a row of inflation well above the Fed’s arbitrary 2 percent inflation target.
Month-over-month inflation was flat with the CPI rising by 0.4 percent from February to March, with seasonal adjustment. Month-to-month growth had also been 0.4 percent from January to February.
The ongoing price increases largely reflect growth in prices for food, services, electricity, and shelter.
For example, prices for “food away from home” were up 4.2 percent in March over the previous year. Gasoline prices rose 1.3 percent over the period, but electricity surged to 5.0 percent. Prices for “services less energy services” rose 5.4 percent, year over year, while shelter rose 5.7 percent over the period.
Some specific categories were well above even this in year-over-year price inflation. For example:
- Car insurance prices: up 22.2%
- Car repair prices: up 11.6%
- Transportation prices: up 10.7%
- Hospital services prices: up 7.5%
- Homeowners’ prices (“Owners’ equivalent rent”): up 5.9%
Removing volatile energy and food prices from the index, we find price inflation nonetheless remains stubbornly high. So-called core CPI growth remains almost double the “two-percent target”—at 3.8 percent—keeping price inflation growth near thirty-year highs. In other words, core CPI is a long way from returning to “normal.” Moreover, March’s month-over-month increase remains at 0.4 percent, which is the largest increase recorded in any month since April 2023.
Biden Blames Corporate Greed
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Fraud Inherent in Fractional Reserve Banking
The Fraud Inherent in Fractional Reserve Banking
“Our current banking system is not free market capitalism.”
Suppose you bring a fur coat to a dry cleaner and later discover that the owner allowed his wife to wear it before cleaning it (an episode from Seinfeld). Or suppose you gave your car keys to a hotel valet and was told he lent your car to teenagers who took it for a joyride while you were sleeping at the hotel. You would not be too happy and for good reason. When you surrendered your clothes or your car keys, it was a bailment. You retained ownership and gave the clothes or car keys for safekeeping. In no shape or form did you surrender ownership of the items or lend out your property.
Suppose you lived in the eighteenth century and had a hundred ounces of gold. It’s heavy, and you do not live in a safe neighborhood, so you decide to bring it to a goldsmith for safekeeping. In exchange for this gold, the goldsmith gives you ten tickets on which are clearly marked as claims against a total of ten ounces. Now, gold is heavy and burdensome to carry, so in a short period of time, those claims will start circulating in place of gold. This is the creation of near monies. This doesn’t mean you have given up your ownership claims on gold but have instead used a simpler way of transferring ownership on this gold.
Of course, the gold now just sits in the vault, and no one usually comes to get some of it or even checks that it is still there. Quickly, the goldsmith realizes there is an easy, fraudulent way to get rich: just lend out the gold to someone else by creating another ten tickets…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Insanity: Celebrating Rate Cuts At A Shiller PE Of 31x
Insanity: Celebrating Rate Cuts At A Shiller PE Of 31x
Last week ended the way all weeks have been ending: with the stock market raging higher based on future expectations of rate cuts that (1) have not happened yet (2) probably won’t happen until next year, unless a market crash happens first and (3) won’t make their way through the economy for another 18 to 24 months.
But nonetheless, the S&P is looking to finish the year nearing astronomical 20% gains, something that I would have thought to have been impossible with rates raging higher over the last 2 years. But, then again, remember as I wrote in September — rate cuts are usually the signal for the market to crash — not rate hikes: Fed Rate Cuts Should Scare The Shit Out Of You
Is that something I wish I had understood better heading into the last few years? Absolutely. Have I taken an ass whooping betting on volatility and being mostly net short? Absolutely. Does that mean I’m going to be deadass wrong again in 2024?
Not necessarily.
After all, look at gold. As I’ve noted, gold is one of the very few names I’d consider ever being “all in”. And, as I have written about extensively, I find the setup for the precious metal heading into 2024 to be outstanding. I’ve been harping on this since the inception of this blog and it took until this week for gold to hit new all time highs: The Fed Can’t, And Won’t, Nail The Dismount
So let’s just hope it isn’t my analysis that’s wrong, but rather, just my timing.
Anyway I took the time this week to offer up my updated thoughts on Elon Musk and Tesla, after both Musk’s outburst at the DealBook conference and Tesla’s Cybertruck reveal. I explain my thoughts and continued stance on Tesla here: Elon Musk And Dark Forces
…click on the above link to read the rest…
Covid Emergency, Climate Emergency: Same Thing
Covid Emergency, Climate Emergency: Same Thing
Would a ‘Climate Emergency’ Open the Same Door to Authoritarian Governance as the ‘COVID Emergency?’
I am always happy to welcome new content from The Brownstone Institute, one of the last few beacons of common sense left in the world.
This week they published a new piece on how, as the Covid emergency fades away, the climate emergency is becoming prominent. After lamenting the rights that were taken from citizens during the Covid emergency, the article looks at exactly what superpowers the government would get in declaring a climate emergency. You guessed it: more power to ram through ways for government to micromanage your life, interfere with the economy and – best of all – further the Keynesian nightmare by printing and spend as many U.S. dollars as they want without consequences.
I reached out to the publication last year and requested permission to share their content when I enjoy it, in full, with my readers, which they kindly granted. If you’re interested in the topic – or simply just having a grasp on the objective truth – I believe it is a “must read”.
The article is written by W. Aaron Vandiver, a writer, former litigator, and wildlife conservationist. He is the author of the novel, Under a Poacher’s Moon. Photographic annotations have been added by QTR.
In February 2022, 1,140 organizations sent President Biden a letter urging him to declare a “climate emergency.” A group of US Senators did the same, in October 2022, and a House bill, introduced in 2021, also called on the president to “declare a national climate emergency under the National Emergencies Act.”
Biden has considered declaring such an emergency, but so far he has declined, to the disappointment of many progressives.
…click on the above link to read the rest…
World Economic Fuck’em
World Economic Fuck’em
Nothing more than an unelected globalist government slowly emerging behind the curtains, eager to abscond with your rights and tell you how to live. Really…nothing to see here.
Among the many wretched, slimy and odious things that are increasingly giving me the creeps as the sands of my life’s hourglass continue to fall is the World Economic Forum: a collective of self-righteous global elites handing down virtues, values, lessons, lectures and political initiatives to us peons out here in the rest of the world.
The “Forum” is increasingly starting to resemble a globalist government, stocked with globally unelected turbo-douchebags, who have been assembling quietly in the background while no one has noticed.
One minute you’ve never heard of them – did you know the WEF has been around for about 5 decades? – the next, the “Forum” is harboring incredible influence, mostly with “useful” bureaucratic idiots on the left who are happy to take their cues on how to napalm individual rights for betterment of advancing their agendas from anyone who will help, regardless of their motivation.
That’s right: gone are the days of joking about The Great Reset, owning nothing and liking it and shifting to a diet of mealworms and crickets.
I’ve arrived at a point past that – a point of being sickened by watching people that in no way, shape or form represent me or the people in my life, yammer on about what my future will or won’t look like and what things I stand for are “right” or “wrong”.
It’s right in the WEF’s mission statement:
…click on the above link to read the rest…
We Must Have The Truth
We Must Have The Truth
In an understatement of the century, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky recently summed up her agency’s role in promoting distrust in science by stating that they did not “reliably meet expectations.”
I am always happy to welcome new content from The Brownstone Institute, one of the last few beacons of common sense left in the world of actual journalism.
This week they published a new piece on Covid and our response to it, called We Must Have The Truth. I reached out to the publication last year and requested permission to share their content when I enjoy it, in full, with my readers, which they kindly granted. If you’re interested in the topic – or simply just having a grasp on the objective truth – I believe it is a “must read”.
The article is written by Pat Fidopiastis, who is a Professor of Microbiology at California Polytechnic State University.
On April 2, 2020, a paddle boarder was chased by authorities and taken into custody. This event should have caused unanimous outrage over the absurdity of what happened – law enforcement arrested a lone paddle boarder on Santa Monica Bay for the crime of “flouting coronavirus closures.”
Traditional voices that could have questioned unscientific authoritarian policy instead provided cover. The Los Angeles Times justified law enforcement’s ridiculous response by quoting a scientist who made the claim (presumably with a straight face): “..[SARS-CoV-2] could enter coastal waters and transfer back into the air.” Setting aside the absurdity of this and every other justification for closing beaches, hiking trails, and parks, think of the narrative it perpetuated — the virus is so insidious that even those who dared to paddle board alone on the ocean might somehow spread it to the rest of us.
…click on the above link to read the rest…
Cracks In The World Economy Are Starting To Show
Cracks In The World Economy Are Starting To Show
Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week, with his updated take on the monetary miasma spreading across the globe.
For those that missed it, Larry also talked with me on my podcast just days ago. I believe him to truly be one of the muted voices that the investing community would be better off for considering. He’s the type of voice that gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.
Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts heading into Q4 2022. The letter has been edited ever-so-slightly for formatting, grammar and visuals.
This is Part 1 of his letter. Part 2 can be found here.
In the third quarter, virtually all asset classes went for a roller coaster ride – a sharp bear market rally in July and August, followed by a vicious sell off in September as the Fed continued its Hawkish tone at Jackson Hole in late August and then raised the Fed Funds rate in September to 3.00-3.25%. Recall that as recently as February 2022 Fed Funds was at 0.0-0.25%.
Year to date through 9/30/22, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down -24% and – 33%, respectively. Gold and Gold Miners (GDXJ) are down -9% and -30% year to date, respectively. Bloomberg’s US Aggregate Bond Index is down -15%. Only the Bloomberg Commodity Index (broad commodities like oil that are benefiting from inflation) is up year to date (+13.5%).
The Fed’s hawkishness has caused an enormous amount of wealth destruction. As the chart below shows, US stocks and bonds have created a drawdown of $18 Trillion in the US equity and fixed income markets, far worse than 2008 and 2020’s market value destruction….
…click on the above link to read the rest…
