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They’re All High on Fed Fairy Dust

They’re All High on Fed Fairy Dust

Everybody realizes the US economy is in a bad spot. But most people still seem to believe it will bounce right back once we deal with the coronavirus.

They’re all high on Federal Reserve fairy dust.

US GDP contracted by 4.8% in the first quarter. It was the first negative GDP reading since a 1.1% decline in the first quarter of 2014 and it was the lowest level since the 8.4% plunge in Q4 of 2008.

And the worst is yet to come.

The Q1 GDP number only captures the first couple of weeks of coronavirus-inspired government lockdowns of the economy. In fact, in January Donald Trump and others were telling us that it was the best economy in the history of the world. That was also in the first quarter.

The first-quarter GDP print came in even worse than expected. Economists were projecting a contraction of 3.5 to 4%. The precipitous and rapid plunge in economic activity not only reflects the impacts of turning off the economy in the midst of coronavirus; it also reveals just how fragile the economy was before the pandemic.

Back in January, President Trump called it the greatest economy in history. Trump continued to talk up the economy during the State of the Union address, taking credit for the “strong” economic growth. At the time, Peter Schiff said nobody should be taking credit for the condition of the US economy. In fact, economic growth wasn’t much different than it was when Obama was president.

The only difference is we had to borrow even more money to achieve the same level of fake GDP growth that we did under Obama. The reality is nobody should be taking credit for the current US economy. The question is who deserves the blame?”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: The Questions Nobody Is Asking

Peter Schiff: The Questions Nobody Is Asking

There seems to be growing optimism that we’re nearing the end of the coronavirus lockdown. Stocks have rallied despite dismal economic numbers. But Peter Schiff says there are some important questions nobody is asking, especially when it comes to the insane Federal Reserve monetary policy.

The US stock market ended last week on an upswing and gold was down as optimism and risk-on sentiment returned. The optimism was due to a possible treatment for coronavirus along with some movement toward reopening the US economy. There seems to be some sentiment that the market has found its bottom.

Peter doesn’t think so.

I still am doubting this rally. I don’t think the bear market is over. I don’t think the bear market ends with stocks like Netflix and Amazon making new all-time record highs. I still think those stocks have to have some kind of comeuppance. I think they have to take those out and shoot them. So,  I am looking for another sell-off in the broad markets.”

Peter said there is one thing the market has going for it — the Federal Reserve. In fact, a lot of people seem to think that’s all you need.

As long as you’ve got the Fed on your side and they’re going to keep on printing money, which they’re going to do and they’re going to print more and more of it, people are going to make a bet. And they’re going to bet on the Fed by buying stocks. What they should be doing is buying gold.”

Gold stocks have been strong in recent weeks, but some of the bigwigs on Wall Street are already talking like the gold rally is over. Peter said it’s barely begun.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We’re Not Going Back to Normal

We’re Not Going Back to Normal

Turn the key and the economy will restart.

That’s a myth a lot of people in the mainstream have peddled since governments started shutting down the economy in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

That’s not going to happen. We’re not going back to normal.

In fact, things weren’t “normal” before the pandemic.

As Peter Schiff has been saying, too many mainstream pundits and prognosticators have focused exclusively on the pin and ignored the economic bubble that it popped. They argue that since the economic damage due to the COVID-19 shutdowns was self-inflicted, it’s not a real recession. It’s not a realeconomic collapse. It’s not that businesses are closing because the economy is bad. We just decided to shut them down. Therefore, we can just decide to open everything back up and everything will be fine. But as Schiff said, it’s not that simple.

What matters is that we got a wound. Look, if I grab a knife and I stab myself in the chest, I’m not OK because the wound is self-inflicted. … It doesn’t matter how I got stabbed. What matters is I have a knife in my chest and I’m bleeding. So, I can’t just ignore the wound because I was dumb enough to stab myself.”

I’ve been saying the same thing for weeks. The economy doesn’t stop and start on a dime. Just because Donald Trump snaps his fingers and says, “Go!” doesn’t mean that the crisis ends. The economic damage done to the economy by that knife is deep. In fact, the economy was already suffering from multiple knife wounds long before COVID-19 reared its ugly head.

It appears some people in the mainstream are starting to wake up to reality – sort of. Reuters recently ran an article headlined “With confidence shattered, the road to a ‘normal’ US economy looks long.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: People Are Still Too Focused on the Pin and Not the Bubble

Peter Schiff: People Are Still Too Focused on the Pin and Not the Bubble

There seems to be some optimism in the markets that the end of the coronavirus shutdown is getting closer. There is also this resistant myth that the economy will just fire back up at the snap of a finger. Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT Boom Bust along with Christy Ai to talk about the markets and the pandemic. He said people are still far too focused on the pin and not the bubble that it popped.

The US stock market has had some strong rally days recently with this growing optimism that we could be nearing the coronavirus peak. So, has the stock market found its bottom? Peter doesn’t think so.

Too many people are focused on the pin and are ignoring the bubble that the pin pricked. You know, before the COVID-19 shutdown, the economy was long overdue for a severe recession, and the US stock market was long overdue for a bear market. So, I think the COVID virus simply accelerated the onset of both. … So I would not get excited about this rally. I think we still have a long way to go on the downside. And the economy, I think, is going to be even worse.”

Christy agreed with Peter saying this is not the real bounce and we still have a long way drop. She pointed out that earnings still have a long way to fall and there is a massive unemployment tail from the pandemic.

Peter was asked about the response to the government stimulus package signed by President Trump.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: What Is the Economy Going to Recover to?

Peter Schiff: What Is the Economy Going to Recover to?

A lot of people still seem to think at some point, Donald Trump will flip a switch and the government will start humming again. As Peter Schiff explained in his podcast Friday that’s not going to happen. The best we can hope for is recovering from a depression to the recession we were going to have anyway.

We got the monthly jobs report for March on Friday. It was bad. But not as bad as what we’re going to see in April.

The economy lost 701,000 jobs last month. That was the first contraction in the labor market in over a decade. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4%. The monthly job losses were already close to the May 2009 financial crisis peak of 800,000.

Of course, we know from the weekly unemployment applications reported over the last two weeks that this is just the beginning of an epic labor market collapse. Over 10 million Americans filed for unemployment. That 701,000 is going to look pretty good compared to the April number.

As Peter said, it should be pretty apparent that when this is over, we’re not going back to normal.

This is not going to be a quick recovery. People keep talking about this, that’s it’s going to be this quick recovery. We can’t have a quick recovery. And when we recover, what are we going to recover to?”

President Trump continues to spin this fairytale that we had the greatest economy in history prior to the coronavirus. The narrative is he was forced to shut down this booming economy because of the coronavirus. Once the coronavirus threat passes, the economy is just going to start right back up again.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: Americans Are in For a Rude Awakening

Peter Schiff: Americans Are in For a Rude Awakening

All eyes have been on the stock market in recent weeks as it has reflected the fears about the coronavirus-induced economic shutdown and the hopes of massive stimulus. It’s been quite a rollercoaster ride. But in his podcast on March 27, Peter Schiff said there’s an even bigger problem looming on the horizon that people aren’t paying any attention to – the potential destruction of the dollar. He said Americans are in for a rude awakening.

The Dow Jones finished its best week since the Great Depression with a 915.39 point drop. But even with that big plunge, the Dow was up about 13% on the week, all on the strength of the spectacular rally on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, the Dow had a bull market condensed into three days. But Peter said it was not really a bull market. He called it a “vicious correction in a horrific bear market.” And he said that bear market is “a long way from over.”

But while most eyes are on the stock market, Peter said we’re missing a more significant looming bear market — the bear market we’re going to have in the US dollar.

Peter has already explained how the actions of the Federal Reserve and the US government has set the stage to devalue the dollar, saying the dollar is cooked. He said that with the central bank and government response to the coronavirus, hyperinflation has gone from being the worst-case scenario to the most likely scenario.

A bear market in the dollar can mask some of the other problems in the economy. Consider in the 1970s, the dollar fell by nearly 70%. That means that while nominal stock market losses in the decade weren’t terrible, the real losses were significantly larger.  It was a destruction of the value of US stocks and Peter said it’s going to happen again.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: Hyperinflation Is the Most Probable Scenario

Peter Schiff: Hyperinflation Is the Most Probable Scenario

March 23 was Peter Schiff’s birthday. It was also the day the Federal Reserve announced QE Infinity. So, Peter spent over three hours hosting a live videocast talking about the latest Fed moves, the potential impact on the economy and answering questions from viewers.

Peter said he was hoping to combat the rampant economic ignorance that is pretty much everywhere.

There’s probably one thing that is spreading right now throughout the country faster than the coronavirus and that is economic ignorance and misinformation. It’s all over the place. It’s gone completely viral … The best thing anybody can do to combat the virus of ignorance is to turn off their television sets or their computers and don’t listen to anything that is being said in conventional media, whether it’s a news-related channel or a financial channel, I can virtually assure you that every single thing that you’re hearing is wrong.”

Peter hammered on a number of central themes you won’t hear discussed in the mainstream. For one thing, the Federal Reserve and the US government are repeating the mistakes of 2008.

Peter reminds us that as the crisis unfolded in ’08, he warned that the policies of bailouts and monetary stimulus were a mistake and that they would lead to a bigger crisis in the future.

Well, welcome to the future.”

He also emphasized that this isn’t about the coronavirus. The virus pricked a bubble that was inflated long ago. The economic chaos we’re seeing today started long before the virus reared its ugly head.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: These Markets Are Rigged

Peter Schiff: These Markets Are Rigged

US stock markets enjoyed another Tuesday rebound with the announcement of even more monetary stimulus from the Fed and the hope of government fiscal stimulus and bailouts. In his podcast, Peter Schiff said this should make it crystal clear that the government and central bank are rigging the markets.

There is talk of “helicopter” cash and tax breaks, along with bailouts for the airline industry and small businesses. The proposed stimulus package reportedly totals over $1.2 trillion.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve announced additional monetary stimulus measures.

The Fed said it will begin to hold two daily repo operations instead of one. The New York Fed began running repo operations to stabilize overnight lending markets back in September, long before the coronavirus outbreak.

The central bank has also relaunched the so-called Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), a 2008 financial crisis program that allows companies to take out unsecured, short-term loans. In practice, the Federal Reserve will buy commercial paper directly from companies. The loans will have to be paid back within a year.  The US Treasury will provide $10 billion of credit protection to the central bank’s commercial paper operation.

To go along with the CPFF, the Fed announced a Primary Dealer Credit Facility offering overnight and term funding with maturities up to 90 days.

In simplest terms, it will allow over-leveraged companies to go into even deeper debt and those loans will be backed by the federal government. Peter called it a bank bailout 2.0.

Loaning money to banks and accepting corporate and muni bonds, plus equities as collateral, so the banks don’t have to sell those assets at huge losses, is a bailout. In 2008, I warned the next bank bailout would be even more expensive.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: They’re Going to Need a Bigger Rate Cut!

Peter Schiff: They’re Going to Need a Bigger Rate Cut!

Stop and pause for a moment and think about what just happened. The Federal Reserve says the US economy is strong, but it just initiated emergency monetary policy last seen during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Something doesn’t add up.

The Fed cut rates 50 basis points on Tuesday. It was the first interest rate move between regularly schedule FMOC meetings since the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed funds rate now stands between 1.0 and 1.25%.

The decision to cut rates was unanimous.

As the Wall Street Journal pointed out, this kind of Federal Reserve move has been reserved for “when the economic outlook has quickly darkened, as in early 2001 and early 2008, when the US economy was heading into recession.” The 50-basis point cut was the first cut of such magnitude since December 2008. Pacific Management investment economist Tiffany Wilding called it a “shock-and-awe approach.”

It may have been shocking, but the results weren’t awesome.

Stocks tanked anyway.

The Dow Jones closed down 785.91 points, a 2.94% plunge. The S&P 500 fell 2.81%.  The Nasdaq experienced a similar drop, closing down 2.99%.

Meanwhile, gold rallied, quickly pushing back above $1,600 and gaining over $50. Wednesday morning, the yellow metal was knocking on the door of $1,650.

Bond yields sank again as investors continued their retreat into safe-havens. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped below 1%.

In a press conference after the announcement, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank “saw a risk to the economy and chose to act.”

“The magnitude and persistence of the overall effect on the US economy remain highly uncertain and the situation remains a fluid one. Against this background, the committee judged that the risks to the US outlook have changed materially. In response, we have eased the stance of monetary policy to provide some more support to the economy.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: The Real Safe-Haven Money Is Going Into Gold

Peter Schiff: The Real Safe-Haven Money Is Going Into Gold

Stock markets tanked on Monday. The Dow Jones was down over 1031 points. It was the biggest drop in two years for the Dow. The Nasdaq shed 355 points. The S&P500 was down 111.

As stocks dropped, the bond market was red-hot. Prices soared and yields dipped to record lows. Bonds are considered a safe-haven, but in his latest podcast, Peter said US Treasuries aren’t a safe-space. When it’s all said and done, the only safe-haven left standing will be gold.

Coronavirus fear was the immediate catalyst for the sell-off as the virus spread outside China, but Peter noted that US stock markets were already vulnerable before the virus outbreak.

Remember, we’re talking about the US stock market that’s at bubble territory, nosebleed valuations, long in the tooth, the longest bull market in US history that has been fueled by the most monetary and reckless fiscal policy in US history. But this is a bubble in search of a pin. So, maybe the coronavirus is going to be the pin. But if we had a healthy market, if we had a healthy economy, it wouldn’t matter about the coronavirus. It’s because the economy is sick. That’s the problem, not the people who are infected with this virus.”

Peter said it looks like the coronavirus is going to have a bigger effect on the global economy than he originally thought. But there is a lot to worry about even if we didn’t have the coronavirus.

So now, when  you have this too – you have another straw on a camel’s back that is ready to just implode at any moment because he’s already barely able to support all the straws that are already up there. I mean, hey, why not sell? Why not lighten up in the stock market?”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Schiff: “US Is In A Gigantic Bubble… & Covid-19 Is Going To Be The Pin”

Schiff: “US Is In A Gigantic Bubble… & Covid-19 Is Going To Be The Pin”

While yesterday’s collapse in stocks has been broadly blamed on worsening Covid-19 headlines; Peter Schiff, the CEO and chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital, dug a little deeper into the real problems behind the market’s fragility on RT’s Boom Bust this week.

According to Schiff, “the bond market is telegraphing right now that we are going to have several more rate cuts, I think between now and the end of the year.”

In fact the market is pricing in almost 2.5 rate cuts by the end of 2020…

Peter noted that US stock markets were already vulnerable before the virus outbreak.

Remember, we’re talking about the US stock market that’s at bubble territory, nosebleed valuations, long in the tooth, the longest bull market in US history that has been fueled by the most monetary and reckless fiscal policy in US history. But this is a bubble in search of a pin. So, maybe the coronavirus is going to be the pin. But if we had a healthy market, if we had a healthy economy, it wouldn’t matter about the coronavirus. It’s because the economy is sick. That’s the problem, not the people who are infected with this virus.”

And what will The Fed do? What they always do! If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail…

“Whether they commit to moving to zero or not, that’s exactly what they are going to do,” Schiff says.

“The Fed should not be cutting interest rates but that’s what they are going to do because it’s the only thing they can do.”

That is not going to cure coronavirus or the economy, it’s simply going to make US economy sicker, Schiff notes.

“The US economy is in gigantic bubble and maybe the coronavirus is going to be the pin.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff Doubles Down on the Dollar

Peter Schiff Doubles Down on the Dollar

Last year at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, Peter Schiff bet Brent Johnson a gold coin that the Fed’s next move would be a rate cut. At this year’s conference, Peter collected his gold coin.

Brent and Peter went on to debate the future of the US dollar. Brent says the dollar will go up this year. Peter thinks it’s going down. Peter put his money where is mouth is and went double or nothing against the dollar. 

Peter’s Highlights from the Discussion

“The central bankers are going to continue pursuing this policy as long as they can do it without some type of a crisis that intervenes. But the problem is the longer they do it the worse it’s going to be.”

“I don’t think it can go on that much longer. Decades – no way! I mean, can it go on four more years. Sure.”

“The US market has never been this overvalued, overpriced as far as I’m concerned. You know, people were optimistic in 2000.”

“The market is very, very dangerous. It can easily go down. Trump will tweet as much as he can to try to prop it up. But whether that and the Fed’s printing press is going to be enough, we’ll see.”

“I think the whole fiat system that we have is nearing the end of its life. And the fact that were at these zero percent rates or negative rates, and all the stuff that’s going on is the death knell of this system, which was doomed from the start.”

“I think gold is going to reassert itself as the primary reserve monetary asset in the world for central banks and that threatens the dollar.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: Gold Is Your Only Alternative

Peter Schiff: Gold Is Your Only Alternative

Which will outperform in 2020? Gold? Or Equities?

Peter Schiff joined a moderated debate on the subject at the Orlando Money Show. Peter teamed up with Rick Rule to argue for gold, against Louis Navellier and Jeffrey Saut, who contend the stock market is still the place to be. Mark Skousen moderated the debate. 

Interestingly, even Navellier admitted that the stock market is getting “a little bubbly.” He said it looks like ’99 all over again – the year before the dot-com bubble popped. But he still thinks there’s money to be made.

Skousen set up the gold argument by bringing up the fact Mark Mobius says buy gold at any price because interest rates are so low and gold is relatively cheap.

Rule said the gold vs. stocks debate is a little bit silly. It’s not necessarily one or the other. The stock market is a market place to buy and sell stocks. Why would you be against the market? Why would you be against every individual company? On the other hand, Rule said he thinks gold is very under-owned. He pointed out that even a reversion to the mean in gold investment would quadruple demand for the yellow metal.

Peter pointed out that gold is beating the S&P 500 this century. The key is to look at what is going on in the broader economy.

We’ve got quantitative easing. We’ve got negative real interest rates. We’ve got massive deficits as far as the eye can see. This is not the same dynamic that we had. You can’t earn. Twenty years ago, 30 years ago, you could put your money in the bank and you could earn 5 or 6%. There was a reason not to own gold becuase there was an opportunity cost. You could actually get interest on your savings. ”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff on the Ultimate Gold Panel

Peter Schiff on the Ultimate Gold Panel

During the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, Peter Schiff joined Frank Holmes (US Global), Rick Rule (Sprott US), and Grant Williams (Vulpes Investment Management) on the “Ultimate Gold Panel. Daniela Cambone moderated the discussion.

Gold charted its best year since 2010 last year. The price increased by 18.4% in dollar terms. The yellow metal also reached record highs in every G10 currency except the dollar and the Swiss franc. Can this bull-run can continue into 2020?

Peter noted that he was on a gold panel the year before and he was the only person who thought gold was going to go up. Many were predicting the yellow metal would fall back to $1,000.

I thought that was very improbable. And now you’re throwing around could it go back down to $1,300. Look, it’s possible, but I think it’s highly improbable that that’s going to happen. If gold is broken out and 1,350 was a six-year high that capped every rally, I think we took it out, we’ve never looked back ever since. We now seem to be building support around 1,550, or just under 1,550, which was the high before we had a pullback to around what? 1,450. So, the market looks very strong to me. So, while it’s possible that we could get that large decline, I wouldn’t want to hope for it or bet on it. I think that there’s a lot more upside potential and I think the number that Dalio is talking about, 2,000, not only is that very probable, but depending on the outcome of this election, we could go much higher. I mean, if Bernie Sanders were to be elected president, just imagine what would happen to the price of gold. The very night the results came in.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: Americans Are in for a Rude Awakening

Peter Schiff: Americans Are in for a Rude Awakening

On Jan. 13, Peter Schiff appeared on RT Boom Bust with Bubba Horwitz to talk about the yuan, the dollar, the stock market and the US economy. Peter said the dollar is eventually going to collapse and it’s going to be a rude awakening for Americans.

The Chinese yuan has been gaining strength against the dollar in recent weeks, in part because of optimism that there will eventually be a resolution to the trade war. But the Chinese currency is still over 17% lower than it was when the US imposed its first tariffs. Does this mean the markets are cautiously positioning for a deal, or is there still skepticism about the phase 1 deal? Peter focused on the bigger picture.

Well look, a phase one might happen because a phase one is insignificant. The real deal is supposedly phase two. That’s the one that’s not going to happen. So, if anybody thinks we’re going to have a substantive deal, they’re wrong. But the reality is, I think the Chinese yuan is undervalued relative to the dollar and I expect it to rise rather dramatically over time.”

Peter said this is not good news for the US.

It’s going to make imports more expensive for Americans, so it’s going to reduce our standard of living. And I do think ultimately, it’s going to push up interest rates as well, as the Chinese and a lot of other creditors are no longer lending money to Americans, and so we have to draw from our own savings pool, which is extremely shallow. It means the Federal Reserve is going to be printing a lot more money as it monetizes the debt that the Chinese and other nations no longer want to buy, and this is further going to lower the American standard of living.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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