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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Albert Edwards On How It All Ends: “In The Next Recession, The S&P Will Drop Below 666”

Albert Edwards On How It All Ends: “In The Next Recession, The S&P Will Drop Below 666”

Back in August, we wrote that after decades of waiting, for Albert Edwards vindication was finally here – if only outside the US for now – because as per BofA calculations, average non-USD sovereign yields on $19 trillion in global debt had, as of Monday, turned negative for the first time ever at -3bps.

So now that virtually every rates strategist is rushing to out-“Ice Age” the SocGen strategist (who called the current move in rates years if not decades ago) by forecasting even lower yields (forgetting conveniently that just a year ago consensus called for the 10Y to rise well above 3% by… well, some time now), we reported what man who correctly called the unprecedented move in global yields – which has sent $17 trillion in sovereign debt negative – thinks happens next (for those who missed it, the summary was “There is a lot more to come.“)

Of course, it ain’t easy being a permabear – even when your global “Japanification” thesis, 30 years in the making, has been validated – for the simple reason that there are haters always and everywhere, and for some odd reason Edwards decided that responding to them in his latest letter is a prudent use of his time. In this particular case, Edwards takes umbrage at the criticism of a fellow “financial advisor” who inexplicably, spends more time on CNBC and on twitter than, well, providing financial advice, but that’s Albert’s prerogative (our advice: ignore them).

So instead of diluting Edward’s message with trivial tangents, we focus on several key points, the first of which is why if Edwards got the bond bull market so spectacularly right at a time when virtually everyone remains short bonds…

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bubble Fortunes

Wynn Bullock Child on a Forest Road 1958

A few days ago, former Reagan Budget Director and -apparently- permabear (aka perennial bear) David Stockman did an interview (see below) with Stuart Varney at Fox -a permabull?!-, who started off with ‘the stock rally goes on’ despite a London terror attack and the North Korea missile situation. His first statement to Stockman was something in the vein of “if I had listened to you at any time after the past 2-3 years, I’d have lost a fortune..” Stockman shot back with (paraphrased): “if you’d have listened to me in 2000, 2004, you’d have dodged a bullet”, and at some point later “get out of bonds, get out of stocks, it’s a dangerous casino.” Familiar territory for most of you.

I happen to think Stockman is right, and if anything, he doesn’t go far enough, strong enough. What that makes me I don’t know, what’s deeper and longer than perennial or perma? But it’s Varney’s assumption that he would have lost a fortune that triggered me this time around. Because it’s an assumption built on an assumption, and pretty soon it’s assumptions all the way down.

First, that fortune is not real, unless and until he sells the stocks and bonds he made it with. If he has, that would indicate that he doesn’t believe in the market anymore, which is not very likely for a permabull to do. So Varney probably still has his paper ‘fortune’. I’m using him as an example, of course, of all the permabulls and others who hold such paper.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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