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“Dr. Doom” Nouriel Roubini Warns Of Stagflationary Megathreat
“Dr. Doom” Nouriel Roubini Warns Of Stagflationary Megathreat Though the threat of an exponential liquidity crisis is a conversation that Bloomberg should have been seriously addressing two years ago, it’s good to see that reality is finally hitting the mainstream media. Nouriel Roubini, also known as “Dr. Doom” because he’s one of the few mainstream […]
More War Means More Inflation
Apu Gomes/AFP via Getty Images More War Means More Inflation Advanced economies and emerging markets are increasingly engaged in necessary “wars” – some real, some metaphorical – that will lead to even larger fiscal deficits, more debt monetization, and higher inflation on a persistent basis. The future will be stagflationary, and the only question is […]
The Mother of all Economic Crises
The Mother of all Economic Crises Nouriel Roubini, a former advisor to the International Monetary Fund and member of President Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisors, was one of the few “mainstream” economists to predict the collapse of the housing bubble. Now Roubini is warning that the staggering amounts of debt held by individuals, businesses, and […]
The Unavoidable Crash
Spencer Platt/Getty Images The Unavoidable Crash After years of ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit policies and the onset of major negative supply shocks, stagflationary pressures are now putting the squeeze on a massive mountain of public- and private-sector debt. The mother of all economic crises looms, and there will be little that policymakers can do […]
The Gathering Stagflationary Storm
STEFANI REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images The Gathering Stagflationary Storm While recent shocks have made the current inflationary surge and growth slowdown more acute, they are hardly the global economy’s only problems. Even without them, the medium-term outlook would be darkening, owing to a broad range of economic, political, environmental, and demographic trends. NEW YORK – […]
The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis
Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis Years of ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies have put the global economy on track for a slow-motion train wreck in the coming years. When the crash comes, the stagflation of the 1970s will be combined with the spiraling debt crises of the post-2008 era, leaving […]
Rickards: This Time IS Different
Rickards: This Time IS Different Stocks stumbled out of the gate today, at least partially on fears about a resurgence in coronavirus cases. South Korea, which did an excellent job containing the virus, has reported a new batch of cases. Japan and Singapore also reported new cases. Infections are increasing in Germany as well, where […]
The White Swans of 2020
The White Swans of 2020 Financial markets remain blissfully in denial of the many predictable global crises that could come to a head this year, particularly in the months before the US presidential election. In addition to the increasingly obvious risks associated with climate change, at least four countries want to destabilize the US from […]
The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits
The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. When that happens, policymakers will almost certainly pursue some form of central-bank-financed stimulus, regardless of whether the situation calls for it. NEW YORK – A cloud of gloom […]
Four Collision Courses for the Global Economy
Four Collision Courses for the Global Economy Between US President Donald Trump’s zero-sum disputes with China and Iran, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s brinkmanship with Parliament and the European Union, and Argentina’s likely return to Peronist populism, the fate of the global economy is balancing on a knife edge. Any of these scenarios could lead […]
The Anatomy of the Coming Recession
The Anatomy of the Coming Recession Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not […]
The Coming Sino-American Bust-Up
The Coming Sino-American Bust-Up Whether or not US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agree to another truce at the upcoming G20 summit in Osaka, the Sino-American conflict has already entered a dangerous new phase. Though a negotiated settlement or a managed continuation of the status quo are possible, a sharp escalation […]
The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis
Carl Court/Getty Images The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis Although the global economy has been undergoing a sustained period of synchronized growth, it will inevitably lose steam as unsustainable fiscal policies in the US start to phase out. Come 2020, the stage will be set for another downturn – and, unlike in […]
Three Scenarios for the Global Economy
Zhang Peng/Getty Images Three Scenarios for the Global Economy The International Monetary Fund, which in recent years had characterized global growth as the “new mediocre,” recently upgraded its World Economic Outlook. But is the IMF right to think that the recent growth spurt will continue over the next few years, or is a temporary cyclical […]
The Mystery of the Missing Inflation
The Mystery of the Missing Inflation Since the summer of 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion, yet inflation has yet to pick up in the advanced economies. The question that inflation-targeting central banks must confront is straightforward: why? NEW YORK – Since the summer of 2016, the global economy […]
