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The downfall of ‘Professor Lockdown’: triumphs and failures of science based policies

May 10, 2020

The downfall of ‘Professor Lockdown’: triumphs and failures of science based policies

Scientists normally think that a scientific theory can be good or bad independently of the moral status of the person who proposes it. But in politics, the messenger can be blamed. That was the probable reason for the downfall of Dr. Neil Ferguson, nicknamed “Professor Lockdown,” whose moral position was destroyed by a petty sexual scandal. For most scientists, Dr, Ferguson’s personal misbehavior has no relevance to the validity of his models, but for politicians and for the public, it does. A lot.

You all read the story of the downfall of Professor Neil Ferguson, aka “Professor Lockdown” trashed worldwide in the media for having had his lover, Ms. Antonia Staats, visiting him during the lockdown period that he himself had recommended for everybody else. It was a blessing for tabloids and there is no doubt that Dr. Ferguson deserved much of the scorn and the ridicule that was poured on him. Yet, there are some elements in this story that make it different from an ordinary story of philandering.

Let’s review what we know: it seems that Ms. Staats and Dr. Ferguson met first over an internet site and then it was Staats who went to visit Ferguson during the lockdown period at his home in London, and the same Staats who told the story to friends who, in turn, diffused it around. Ferguson didn’t deny the media reports and he immediately apologized and resigned from his post of government advisor.
I don’t know about you, but. to me, all this looks like a trap, sounds like a trap, even smells like a trap. So, it probably was a trap. Ferguson fell head first into it and he was neatly skewered.

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50,000 New Coronavirus Infections Per Day in China

February 8, 2020

50,000 New Coronavirus Infections Per Day in China

Prof. Neil Ferguson, Vice Dean Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College in London, estimates 50K new infections per day. 

Please consider the following video by Prof. Neil Ferguson.

10 Key Video Points

  1. 50,000 new cases a day in china
  2. Infections doubling every 5 days
  3. Death rate is still unknown
  4. China likely to peak in March
  5. Epidemic peak is still a month away
  6. It will be very hard to control this epidemic the say way we did with SARS 15-20 years ago
  7. Cases are always underestimated
  8. Death delays are as long as three weeks
  9. Reported deaths outside China are not reassuring because of delays
  10. We still don’t know the full effects

Tweet on Containment Strategies

Building on @ChristoPhraser et al’s work, @coreypeak‘s model examining the impact of disease dynamics on the relative benefits of symptom monitoring v quarantine seems relevant for thinking through #nCoV2019 containment strategies. https://www.pnas.org/content/114/15/4023.abstract …

Jim Bianco’s Latest Update

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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