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Hurricane Ian Strengthens To Powerful Category 4 As Florida Landfall Imminent

Hurricane Ian Strengthens To Powerful Category 4 As Florida Landfall Imminent

Hurricane Ian strengthened into a powerful Category 4 storm expected to make landfall on Florida’s southwest coast today and then traverse central Florida and emerge in the Atlantic by Thursday.

At 0500 ET, the National Hurricane Center said Ian sustained maximum winds of 140 mph and gusts up to 165 mph. The storm’s center was about 75 miles west-southwest of Naples and 105 miles south-southwest of Punta Gorda, moving north-northeast at 10 mph.

“Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, weakening is expected after landfall.

“On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area this morning, and move onshore later today. The center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday,” NHC senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown told Orlando Sentinel

Ian’s path has shifted south of Tampa Bay, and landfall is now expected between Fort Myers and Sarasota on Wednesday morning or early afternoon before moving across the central part of the state.

NHC warned a “life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west coast and the Lower Florida Keys,” with “devastating wind damage” expected near Ian’s center.

“Catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina,” the weather agency continued.

“It’s going to be historic,” National Weather Service Melbourne meteorologist Kole Fehling in Melbourne, referring to the storm’s landfall impacts.

Fehling said Central Florida could be swamped with 15 to 20 inches of rainfall, with some areas receiving upwards of 24 inches.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Atlantic Basin Is “About To Come Alive” 

Michael Ventrice, an atmospheric scientist at The Weather Company, tweeted Monday morning, “there’s risk for a hurricane to track towards the Gulf of Mexico in 7-10 days.” 

Readers may recall the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been extremely busy, with eleven storms so far, and the risk of two more storms developing later this week.

At the start of the hurricane season, we said: “…this hurricane season could be above average, with 13 to 19 named storms.”

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) published a new five-day tropical weather outlook showing two disturbances developing in the eastern Atlantic.

“NHC is monitoring two disturbances for possible development within the next several days.  A system in the eastern Atlantic has a high chance of development and a system near the Windward Islands has a medium chance of formation,” NHC said.

The next 7-10 days could be a period of heightened activity in the Atlantic and or the Gulf of Mexico. NHC said Disturbance #1 has a 50% chance of developing, and Disturbance #2 has a 70% chance of developing by the end of the week.

“I Feel Helpless”: Bottled Water, Gas Shortages Reported As Floridians Brace For Hurricane Dorian

“I Feel Helpless”: Bottled Water, Gas Shortages Reported As Floridians Brace For Hurricane Dorian 

By now, this has become a familiar scene for millions of Americans, particularly those living in the southeastern states of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, as well as Texas and Louisiana, all of which have been rocked by major hurricanes in recent years. With Hurricane Dorian barreling toward Florida, expected to make landfall as a powerful Category 4 hurricane, with 130 mph winds, this weekend.

According to WSJ, Floridians could begin feeling the impact of the storm as soon as Saturday. The NHC said Thursday that the storm is a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph, moving northwest over the Atlantic Ocean. Though it’s too early to say exactly where it will make landfall, projections suggest it will hit the northwestern Bahamas before moving on to central and southern Florida. 

In Orange County, residents have already begun filling up sandbags at a local park.

The Bahamas and Florida could be under a hurricane watch as soon as Thursday evening. But Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis has already declared a state of emergency that has been expanded to 67 counties, and secured promises of assistance from President Trump.

“The message I think right now is that all Floridians really need to monitor Hurricane Dorian and make necessary preparations,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at a news conference Thursday morning. “This is a track that has a significant amount of uncertainty.”

The entire East Coast of Florida is within the potential travel path of the storm, yet no evacuation orders have been issued yet. But the rush to stock up had already brought on fuel shortages in the Cape Canaveral area.

Those who have decided to remain in the area over the weekend are stocking up on essentials: Gasoline, packaged food, bottled water, batteries and other essentials.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Florida Declares State Of Emergency As Hurricane Dorian Set To Ruin Labor Day Weekend

Florida Declares State Of Emergency As Hurricane Dorian Set To Ruin Labor Day Weekend

Just in time to spoil Labor Day weekend, Hurricane Dorian has barreled through the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico without causing much damage, and is now headed straight for the Florida coastline. After intensifying from a tropical storm into a hurricane late Wednesday, the storm continued to strengthen as it pulled closer to the Continental US.

The storm is expected to continue strengthening over the next few day, and is expected to make landfall on Florida’s Atlantic coast as a CAT 3 storm late Sunday or Monday.


Hurricane Dorian is strengthening and may hit the US as a Category 3. It’s forecast to grow into a major storm over Labor Day weekend before making landfall along the east coast of Florida. https://cnn.it/32f6wYq 

Track Dorian: https://cnn.it/2zqdugK 


In typical fashion, president Trump warned that Dorian will be “a very big storm, perhaps one of the biggest!” and urged people to follow state and federal instructions.


Hurricane Dorian looks like it will be hitting Florida late Sunday night. Be prepared and please follow State and Federal instructions, it will be a very big Hurricane, perhaps one of the biggest!


As of 5 am ET on Thursday, Dorian’s center was some 150 miles north-northwest of San Juan, as it headed northwest at 13 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Dorian’s sustained winds increased to 85 mph, with higher gusts recorded.

Heavy rain from the storm could cause “life threatening” flash floods in parts of the Bahamas on Thursday, and even along the southeastern US coast.

CBS News weather producer David Parkinson said that “with a new supermoon and the angle the storm is approaching from, widespread coastal flooding, including severe coastal flooding is likely. In addition, as the storm is coming in for landfall, it looks like it might lose some of the steering currents.”

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Category 3 Hurricane Willa Makes Landfall In Mexico Tonight – 500,000 Tourists In Path 

Category 3 Hurricane Willa is expected to make landfall in and around Mexico’s Pacific Coast Tuesday evening with “life-threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall,” according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Willa briefly sustained Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds on Monday, then weakened in the overnight to a Category 3, but still packs a significant punch with sustained winds around 125 mph.

As of Tuesday morning, Willa passed through Las Islas Marias, an archipelago of four islands 60 miles offshore of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.Willa is expected to make landfall near Isla del Bosque around or after 6 pm this evening, local time.

“An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall,” the NHC said Tuesday.

Hurricane warnings are posted from San Blas Mazatlan along the western Mexico coastline. Tropical storm warnings extend to surrounding areas, including Bahia Tempehuaya, Playa Perula, and Puerto Vallarta.

Forecasters expect the storm to make landfall this evening just south of Mazatlan, a resort town with about 500,000 people mainly from U.S. and Canada, said The Washington Post.

When Willa’s core slams into the resort town this evening, there is a strong possibility that widespread tree damage, power outages, flooding, and structural damage could be seen.

The Weather Channel expects six to 12 inches of rain — and at most 18 inches — in and around landfall areas. The resort town has terrain that quickly transitions from beaches to mountains terrain, which has a high risk of flash flooding and landslides.

Although Willa is less impressive since it reached peak intensity on Monday, it was the rapid intensification of the storm from Sunday to early Monday that caught many forecasters off guard.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hurricane Florence “Nightmare Scenario” Could Be “Worst Natural Disaster” For Carolinas And Virginia

The latest report from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates that Hurricane Florence is on the verge of becoming a monster storm, which strengthened rapidly overnight as it continued to gain strength over the Atlantic, 625 miles southeast of Bermuda.

Florence had maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and was moving west-northwest at nine mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane, the NHC said. An increase in maximum sustained wind speed is expected over the next several days, as government officials from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic on Monday were preparing for a direct hit later this week.

“Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Florence is forecast to become a major hurricane this morning and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday,” the NHC said.

Over the weekend, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster declared a state of emergency in anticipation of a direct hit. The declaration allows the state to use the National Guard for preparations and to aid in search and recovery operations in the aftermath. North Carolina and Virginia have taken similar measures.

Chuck Watson, a disaster researcher at Enki Research in Savannah, Georgia, told Bloomberg that the northern coast of South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are likely to be the areas most impacted by the storm, which could cause $15.32 billion in damage if it stays on its current trajectory.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Light It Up


War, children,
It’s just a shot away
It’s just a shot away
You Know Who

Grinning like Wonderland’s Cheshire Cat, the Golden Golem of Greatness pronounced this interval of fine fall weather “the calm before the storm.” Hmmmm. Talk about cryptic. This was less than a week after he verbally smacked down Secretary of State Rex Tillerson for “wasting his time” trying to diplomatically reach “Little Rocket Man… “ whereby Rex riposted, calling the President a “moron.”

Ordinarily — say, during the past 220-odd years of this nation’s existence — talk like that would prompt a resignation (though, there are no other instances of talk like that). Tillerson must think that for the good of the country he can’t resign, and God knows what kind of desperate notes are being swapped around between the State Department and the Pentagon.

Where, of course, dwell the generals, lovingly referred to by the president as “my generals,” as if they came out of a trunk full of tin soldiers in the White House play-room. A lot to chew on there. For instance, perhaps the generals have been waiting more than a half century for a good excuse to light up some really odious adversary, just to see how well our serious ordnance works. Or maybe not. Maybe they are all extraordinarily temperate and judicious fellows, averse to apocalyptic violence. Or maybe they are panting to be let off the leash by POTUS… or maybe they want to leash and muzzle the president… and perhaps stuff him into a pet carrier and drown him in the Potomac. For the moment, it’s fun to ruminate on these things, the possibilities are so rich.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hurricane Maria Causes “Widespread Devastation” In Dominica As It Races Toward Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria Causes “Widespread Devastation” In Dominica As It Races Toward Puerto Rico

In less than two days, Hurricane Maria has strengthened from a tropical storm to a powerful category five hurricane, dubbed in no uncertain terms as “catastrophic” by the NHC. Though it has been downgraded to a category 4 overnight, the storm made landfall on the tiny Caribbean island of Dominica, leaving it utterly “devastated,” according to the island’s prime minister.

“We’re just waiting for daybreak to do an assessment of the damage,” Dominica Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit told CNN’s Rosemary Church.

The storm, which made landfall Monday night, has maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, and remains on track to directly hit Puerto Rico, what would make it the first category four hurricane to directly hit the island in 85 years, according to CNN. Skerrit said the island’s “first order of business” following the storm would be to make sure “every single citizen and resident is safe.”

A statement from the National Hurricane Center said Maria’s winds reached 160 miles per hour when it hit the island nation. In an update, the Center said that reports “indicate significant damage to structures has occurred in Dominica.”

In a Facebook post, Skerrit said “initial reports are of widespread devastation. So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace. My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains.”

Meanwhile, the storm early Tuesday morning made landfall on the tiny island Guadalupe, where it is battering homes and businesses with torrential rains and hurricane-force winds…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hurricane Maria Intensifies To “Extremely Dangerous” Cat-4 Storm Ahead Of Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria Intensifies To “Extremely Dangerous” Cat-4 Storm Ahead Of Puerto Rico

Does this look familiar?

As AP reports, Hurricane Maria has intensified into a dangerous Category 4 storm as it bears down on the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Monday the storm is growing in strength as it approaches land. The eye of the storm is expected to pass near the island of Dominica on Monday evening.

The center called the storm “extremely dangerous,” with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 kph).

At 5 p.m. EDT, the storm was centered about 45 miles (70 kilometers) east-southeast of Dominica.

A Hurricane warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques.

*  *  *

Irma’s 15-Foot Storm Surge Could Demolish 1,000 Miles Of Florida Coast: “It Will Cover Your House”

Irma’s 15-Foot Storm Surge Could Demolish 1,000 Miles Of Florida Coast: “It Will Cover Your House”

As we noted on Friday, sea-level analytics firm Climate Central had created a simulation based on the National Hurricane Center’s Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment storm surge and wave modeling that illustrated the devastating flooding in Miami that could result from Hurricane Irma’s storm surge. By overlaying the NHC data with a three-dimensional visual of the city obtained using Google maps, the firm created a realistic visual of what the city would look like under between seven and 11 feet of water.

Luckily, in the last minute the Hurricane shifted westward, but the concerns remain.

Given the expected intensity of the flooding, some readers might assume that the dreaded surge would be the result of tsunami-like waves overwhelming the city’s beaches. But that’s not the case. As the Associated Press explains, the hurricane-force winds draw in water not just form the ocean, but other nearby bodies of water as well. However, forecasters say surges kill more people than the strong winds.

As Florida Gov. Rick Scott warned, the surge “will cover your house.” Already, at least three Floridians have died in the Keys.

“It’s not a wall of water or a tsunami. Simply put, hurricane winds push water toward shore. It can happen quickly and far from a storm’s center, inundating areas that don’t typically flood.

Storm surge doesn’t just come from the ocean. It can come from sounds, bays and lakes, sometimes well inland.”

And with a category four Hurricane like Irma, the water can rise quickly, creating a potentially lethal surprise.

Large hurricanes tend to create greater storm surge over a broader area, and coastal features such as bays can act like funnels and back water up into rivers and canals, said Jamie Rhome, head of the U.S. National Hurricane Center’s storm surge unit.

‘This is going to sneak up on people,’ Rhome said.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

American Society of Civil Engineers Warns: Florida’s Coastal Areas & Stormwater Infrastructure Are in Poor Condition

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS WARNS: FLORIDA’S COASTAL AREAS & STORMWATER INFRASTRUCTURE ARE IN POOR CONDITION

Hurricane Irma is one of the most powerful Atlantic Cat-5 hurricanes ever, barreling towards Florida with 175mph winds moving West North West at 16mph. The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Irma will make Florida landfall as a ‘major hurricane’ (wind speed greater than 110mph) on Sunday morning at 8am.

Infrastructure in Florida is the backbone of the economy. The American Society of Civil Engineers released Florida’s 2016 Report Card with a rating of “C”. That means the overall health of the state’s infrastructure is “mediocre”.

Here is the concerning part. Coastal areas and stormwater systems are in very poor condition—under preforming with “D” ratings. With Irma’s potential impact on Sunday this could be cataphatic for flood zones when considering the intensity of the storm.

Coastal area report card D+, 

Florida’s economy relies heavily on its 825 miles of sandy beaches, the state’s “invisible” coastal infrastructure that protects Florida’s communities from storm damage. Florida beaches are also significant to the economy as the number of beachgoers yearly is more than double the number of visitors to all U.S. parks combined. Unfortunately, nearly 61% of Florida’s sandy beaches (503.8 miles) are eroding. Beaches and inlets require ongoing maintenance to fight erosion. Developing and applying local and regional beach management strategies has proven essential to decreasing the risk exposure in coastal areas and providing storm damage reduction benefits, such as protection of power plants adjacent to the coast. However, over the last 10 years, the average difference between requested and state appropriated funds exceeded $40 million per year.

Stomwater systems report card D,

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Meanwhile Two More Hurricanes Form: Jose Right Behind Irma, Katia In The Gulf

Meanwhile Two More Hurricanes Form: Jose Right Behind Irma, Katia In The Gulf

As previewed yesterday, moments ago the National Hurricane Center said that “quickly strenghtening Jose” which has been quietly following in Irma’s foosteps, has become a hurricane.

Located about 1040 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, Jose is headed at 16 mph on a steady west-northwest track, steered by the same ridge that is helping to direct Irma.

On its current track, Jose would reach the northern Leeward Islands by Saturday, but the ridge is predicted to weaken enough by Saturday to allow Jose to arc just northeast of the islands. Conditions are favorable for Jose to strengthen into a hurricane by later Wednesday, and it could approach Category 3 strength by late in the week. About 25% of the European model ensemble members bring Jose into the northern Leeward Islands, but all of the GFS ensemble members keep Jose north of the islands.

The news means that there are now two major hurricanse barreling toward Florida in the Atlantic, as shown in the map below.

Meanwhile, Katia, which was christened as a Tropical Storm by NHC at 5 am EDT Wednesday, was also just upgraded to a Hurricane.

Scientist Confirms: Harvey Caused A “1-In-1,000-Year Flood”

Scientist Confirms: Harvey Caused A “1-In-1,000-Year Flood”

Scientists have confirmed what one renowned weather forecaster has suspected for days: Hurricane Harvey was a “1-in-1,000-year flood.”

That’s according to researchers at the University of Wisconsin’s Space Science and Engineering Center, who claim there is nothing in the historical record that rivals the devastation resulting from the flooding in southwest Texas, which has forced more than 30,000 Texans into temporary shelters.

“There is nothing in the historical record that rivals this, according to Shane Hubbard, the Wisconsin researcher who made and mapped this calculation. “In looking at many of these events [in the United States], I’ve never seen anything of this magnitude or size,” he said. “This is something that hasn’t happened in our modern era of observations.”

Of course, one reason for this might be that the modern urban environment is covered in concrete and asphalt, which makes it impossible for floodwater to absorb into the ground, exacerbating the disaster.

Hubbard’s calculations, which he shared with the Washington Post, only accentuate the massive scale of the flooding.

To that, we’d like to add the nearly 52 inches of rain recorded by the National Weather Service in Cedar Bayou, Texas, which broke the continental U.S. record.

Making matters worse, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just updated its forecast for what it is now referring to as a “rapidly intensifying” Category 2 hurricane in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Some models see the storm making landfall in Florida, while others see it landing somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, meaning that another powerful storm could ravage Texas just two weeks after Hurricane Harvey, leaving locals little time to recover.

“Rapidly Intensifying” Hurricane Irma Barreling Straight Toward The East Coast

“Rapidly Intensifying” Hurricane Irma Barreling Straight Toward The East Coast

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just updated its forecast for what it is now referring to as a “rapidly intensifying” Category 2 hurricane in the Eastern Atlantic ocean and the results look disastrous for a large swath of the Caribbean and Southeastern United States.  Here is a brief summary of Hurricane Irma from the National Hurricane Center released at 11AM EST:

Satellite images indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying. Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast, which is now displaying a small and clearing eye.  Dvorak estimates were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion is forecast through early Friday, followed by a generally westward motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight and is expected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).


A 50% chance that the northern Antilles experiences a Hurricane landfall next week; topography may cause models some issues with intensity.


Irma is expected to grow into a “major hurricane” within the next 24 hours with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph before growing even stronger throughout the weekend and eventually becoming a Category 4 storm.

Irma

The storm is moving west at roughly 10 mph and isn’t expected to pose its first threat to land until next week.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

3 major hurricanes recorded over the Pacific for first time ever

3 major hurricanes recorded over the Pacific for first time ever

In a historic development this weekend, three major hurricanes were recorded over the Pacific Ocean for the first time since records have been kept.

Hurricane Kilo, Hurricane Ignacio and Hurricane Jimena were all classified as Category 4 storms on Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the second highest classification on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

It was the first time on record that there were three Category 4 hurricanes in the Pacific at the same time, and the first time three major hurricanes—defined as Category 3 or higher—were recorded over the Pacific, according to Weather.com.

“Sea surface temperatures are extremely warm, averaging 2 to 5 degrees above normal,” said meteorologist Chris Robbins, a former NHC forecaster and founder of Robbins Meteorological Consulting and iWeatherNet.com. “This anomaly is well north of the oceanic warming associated with a typical El Niño.”

The rare event was greeted with some enthusiasm by hurricane expert Eric Blake of the NHC on Twitter:


Historic central/eastern Pacific outbreak- 3 major hurricanes at once for the first time on record! pic.twitter.com/t4fdIZwhOO

@ntxweathersoonr one can’t use enough superlatives to talk about how unusual it is. Cpac has no business looking like this

By 8 a.m. Eastern time Monday, Hurricane Jimena, still classified as Category 4, was moving west with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour. The hurricane was not expected to lose much strength in the next couple of days, according to the NHC’s latest advisory.

Hurricane Kilo also remained a Category 4 and was heading toward the international dateline, according to the NHC. The storm was located about 1,370 miles west of Honolulu and had maximum sustained winds of 135 miles per hour.

The Saffir-Simpson scale

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

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