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The Strait of Hormuz and ‘the Spice’

The Strait of Hormuz and ‘the Spice’

Frankly #61

In this week’s Frankly, I’d like to highlight the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a global supply chain choke point where nearly half of the world’s oil available for export travels through on a daily basis. In the midst of high-stakes geo-political events where threats (and misery) from warring nations dominate the discourse, we remain (mostly) energy blind to the bottlenecks that lie at the center of these conflicts, which if disrupted could send our liquid-combustible-fuel dependent economies crashing.

How could the threat of expanding regional wars – especially Iran’s potential response in the Strait of Hormuz – impact the world’s reliance on the flow of oil? Who are the people making world-altering decisions – and do they have the best interest of the future in mind? Can a heightened awareness of our global system’s dependency on fragile energy supply chains shift our focus away from escalating risks towards deconfliction and peace?



In case you missed it…

Last week, I was joined by Luther Krueger to discuss one example of a category of innovation that I’ve taken to calling ‘Goldilocks tech’ – which uses accessible and abundant materials to achieve important tasks for human societies with less or considerably less energy and material throughput. In the western world, most of us are used to indoor, gas or electric stoves, typically powered by fossil fuels, and in a third of the world, people are still using solid fuels – wood, coal, or dung – which come with many health and environmental risks. Solar ovens are an alternative which makes use of passive solar energy at a range of temperatures and can be made from basic or reused materials.

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Kris De Decker: “Low Tech: What, Why, and How.”

Kris De Decker: “Low Tech: What, Why, and How.”

Arthur Berman: The Devil is in the Diesel

Arthur Berman: The Devil is in the Diesel

 

Arthur Berman: “The Devil is in the Diesel”

Arthur Berman: “The Devil is in the Diesel”

The Quiet Part Out Loud

The Quiet Part Out Loud

Of all the challenges facing our culture, the fact that humans use social sorting mechanisms to solve physical world problems looms as perhaps the greatest. This Frankly is a reflection on the possibility of sharing a socially unpalatable message to a large percentage of citizens and leaders. Our vertical and horizontal social infrastructure isn’t built to process, share and address challenges of this magnitude – but instead to ignore, water down, and mitigate. Will the quiet part be spread out loud to large amounts of humans as The Great Simplification becomes more obvious? Or will the quiet part be socially squashed a la George Orwell? Of course I have particular interest in this question, and its resolution. Time is moving very fast…

The Quiet Part Out Loud

The Quiet Part Out Loud

Oil and Natural Gas Energy at the Crossroads

Oil and Natural Gas Energy at the Crossroads

https://youtu.be/Vdn03dCxu3k

Steve Keen: “Mythonomics”

On this episode, we meet with Economist, Author, and Research Fellow at the Institute for Strategy, Resilience, and Security at University College in London, Steve Keen.

Keen discusses how mainstream economics misses the centrality of energy to our economy and to our futures, the naive treatment to the risks of money and debt creation, and the disconnect economic theory has to climate change risks.

About Steve Keen:

Steve Keen is an economist, author of Debunking Economics and The New Economics: A Manifesto, a Research Fellow at the Institute for Strategy, Resilience, and Security at University College in London.

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

PDF Transcript

00:40 – Steve Info + Works

03:30Frank Stilwell

03:50 Theory of the Second Best

05:17Paul Samuelson and paper (1966)

07:30 Neoclassical economics

07:40 Alfred Marshall

09:45Basic assumptions of economics

09:30 Contemporary macroeconomics is applied microeconomics

11:12We are deeply social creatures, and this isn’t accounted for in economics

11:40Theory of supply (rising marginal costs)

12:15In reality, supply has a falling marginal cost (pg 102)

12:35 Alan Blinder + survey on marginal falling costs (pg 22) and vs his textbook

18:30Energy is not included as an input (factor of production)

18:44Computable general equilibrium models

19:02 Rational Expectation Revolution

19:20 Intertemporal equilibrium models

19:21Cobb-Douglas Function

19:24Constant elasticity of production function

20:26When energy is included it is to a very minimized extent

20:41 Working paper by Rudy Backmann looking at energy fall implications in Germany

21:57 – Change in energy and change in GDP is 1:1 (or .99)

22:11 Reiner Kümmel and paper factoring energy into CD Production Function

23:10CO2 at 420 ppm

23:48 Energy consumption/output in roman slaves (pg 558)

24:44A barrel of oil is equivalent to 5 years of human labor (Section 4.3)

25:59Adam Smith

26:03 Physiocrats

26:59Evolution of Labor Theory of Value

28:40Robert Solow

29:30 The assumption is that technology is responsible for our massive growth

30:12Bob Ayres

31:10James Watt – Steam Engine

31:00Energy is the true driver of growth, not technology

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

FAQs from Episodes 1-25 of The Great Simplification

FAQs from Episodes 1-25 of The Great Simplification

Thomas Murphy: “Physics and Planetary Ambitions”

Thomas Murphy: “Physics and Planetary Ambitions”

Desert Apocalypse: What Are We Losing?

Desert Apocalypse: What Are We Losing?

White Sands National Park in New Mexico, a very unique gypsum sand desert

How much thought have you given to the deserts globally? I have a special love for deserts because of the fact that they are so different from the landscape I grew up in. Many people tend to think of deserts as “sand-filled wastelands” because they don’t support the same types of plant species as wetter places. However, this couldn’t be further from the truth. There are actually quite a few species which call the desert home, more in some deserts than others. Because I live in the United States and have actually visited the deserts in the southwestern and western US, and because these lands are threatened with development for false “solutions” which actually propel us in the wrong direction, I decided to write this article based on what we stand to lose as a result of these actions. Several groups are actively involved in attempting to halt development in these deserts, a rather positive thing indeed. More people are needed to protest these developments, as said developments don’t actually solve anything and do threaten far more than the species in the desert – they also threaten US – human beings.

As I pointed out a couple months ago in my article about civilization, so long as a particular goal is to sustain that which can not be sustained, society is doing nothing more than performing an exercise in futility. Society is simply denying reality and buying into false beliefs.

It is extremely important for everyone to understand limits, and a new short video from Nate Hagens nails it. Then there’s this which explains these details in a much shorter span than most of my articles, although I don’t agree with their take that “it’s too late to do anything” in this bullet point, quote:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

What War in Ukraine Means for Energy and Money

What War in Ukraine Means for Energy and Money

What War in Ukraine Means for Energy and Money

What War in Ukraine Means for Energy and Money

Nate Hagens: Energy Blind

Nate Hagens: Energy Blind

Daneil Schmachtenberg: “Bend Not Break Part 1: Energy Blindness” | The Great Simplification #05

Daneil Schmachtenberg: “Bend Not Break Part 1: Energy Blindness” | The Great Simplification #05

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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