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America’s Minsky Moment Approaches
America’s Minsky Moment Approaches Commentary Named after American economist Hyman Minsky, the idea behind a Minsky moment is that a financial markets crisis (especially in credit markets) is caused by a sudden and systemic collapse in asset prices, usually after a sustained period of speculative investment, excessive borrowing, and widespread financial risk taking. In other […]
Sweden, Austria Start Bailing Out Energy Companies Triggering Europe’s “Minsky Moment”
Sweden, Austria Start Bailing Out Energy Companies Triggering Europe’s “Minsky Moment” Last weekend, Credit Suisse repo guru published what may have been the most insightful snippet of the entire European energy crisis (to date) when he extended the infamous “Minsky Moment” framework to Europe, and specifically Germany, which he said “can’t cover its payments without Russian gas […]
“Minsky Moments Almost Certainly Await”: Nomura Fears ‘Collateral’ Damage From The QE-to-QT Transition
“Minsky Moments Almost Certainly Await”: Nomura Fears ‘Collateral’ Damage From The QE-to-QT Transition “Minsky Moments” almost certainly await, warns Nomura’s Charlie McElligott in his latest note as he reflects on a massive week ahead for markets. With Powell testimony and bunches of Fed speakers, along with US economic releases headlined by the market’s most important datapoint in the […]
We are headed for a geopolitical Minsky Moment
We are headed for a geopolitical Minsky Moment King John is forced to sign the Magna Carta, Runnymede UK, 1215AD Could This be a Blow-Off Top for Tyranny? King John’s military failure at the Battle of Bouvines triggered the barons’ revolt, but the roots of their discontent lay much deeper. King John ruled England in […]
Markets Next “Minsky Moment”
Technically Speaking: The Markets Next “Minsky Moment” In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the issue of the markets next “Minsky Moment.” Today, I want to expand on that analysis to discuss how the Fed’s drive to create “stability” eventually creates “instability.” In 2007, I was at a conference where Paul McCulley, who was with PIMCO at the time, discussed the idea […]
Coronageddon: Can a “Minsky Moment” be Avoided?
Coronageddon: Can a “Minsky Moment” be Avoided? There’s a chance that the coronavirus will be contained in the United States and that fewer people will be infected than in China or Iran. But there’s also a possibility that the highly-contagious virus will spread and that there will be sporadic outbreaks across the country. If this […]
The White Swans of 2020
The White Swans of 2020 Financial markets remain blissfully in denial of the many predictable global crises that could come to a head this year, particularly in the months before the US presidential election. In addition to the increasingly obvious risks associated with climate change, at least four countries want to destabilize the US from […]
MacroView: The Next “Minsky Moment” Is Inevitable
MacroView: The Next “Minsky Moment” Is Inevitable In 2007, I was at a conference where Paul McCulley, who was with PIMCO at the time, was discussing the idea of a “Minsky Moment.” At that time, this idea fell on “deaf ears” as the markets, and economy, were in full swing. However, it wasn’t too long before the 2008 “Financial Crisis” brought […]
Guggenheim’s Minerd Warns Of A Nearing ‘Minsky Moment’ That Could “Reset” Asset Prices
Guggenheim’s Minerd Warns Of A Nearing ‘Minsky Moment’ That Could “Reset” Asset Prices Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd warned in a new market outlook titled “From the Desk of the Global CIO: Risk and Reward of Successful ‘Mid-Cycle’ Rate Cuts” that recent 75bps rate cuts by the Jerome Powell–run Federal Reserve had created a similar environment today to 1998 when central […]
Mark Carney Says Climate Change Will Bring Economic Disaster. Will the Powerful Listen?
Mark Carney Says Climate Change Will Bring Economic Disaster. Will the Powerful Listen? Global bank heads say urgent action needed to prevent a ‘Minsky moment’ collapse in asset prices. They may find themselves feeling just a little shaky, however, after a recent open letter written by Canadian Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, with Banque […]
Shocktober’s Not Over – McElligott Sees More “Rolling Minsky Moments” As “Pseudo-Stability” Unravels
Shocktober’s Not Over – McElligott Sees More “Rolling Minsky Moments” As “Pseudo-Stability” Unravels Just before last week’s interest-rate driven market selloff entered its most acute phase, we cited CTA positioning data from Nomura showing that systematic funds had not yet begun the painful process of deleveraging as certain “triggers” had not yet been met. But […]
“This Will Be The Mother Of All Minsky Moments”
“This Will Be The Mother Of All Minsky Moments” We have all had the fun as kids of going to the beach and playing in the sand. Remember taking your plastic bucket and making sandpiles? Slowly pouring the sand into ever bigger piles, until one side of the pile starts to collapse? In his very […]
China’s “AIG” Moment Arrives: Beijing Bails Out “Systemically Important” Anbang, Chairman Removed
China’s “AIG” Moment Arrives: Beijing Bails Out “Systemically Important” Anbang, Chairman Removed In November of last year, we set forth the four candidates that would trigger China’s downfall and expose the Potemkin village economy as nothing but a facade… It might be Anbang – the acquisitive insurance behemoth – see “Anbang Just Became A ‘Systemic […]
PBOC’s Zhou Warns Of “Sudden, Complex, Hidden, Contagious, Hazardous” Risks In Global Markets
PBOC’s Zhou Warns Of “Sudden, Complex, Hidden, Contagious, Hazardous” Risks In Global Markets Just two weeks after warning of the potential for an imminent ‘Minsky Moment’, Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has penned a lengthy article on The PBOC’s website that warns ominously of latent risks accumulating, including some that are “hidden, complex, sudden, […]
“What Happens When The Market Can No Longer Pretend”: Charting Today’s Minsky Moments Dynamics
“What Happens When The Market Can No Longer Pretend”: Charting Today’s Minsky Moments Dynamics Back in July, Deutsche Bank’s derivative strategist Aleksandar Kocic believed he had found the moment the market broke, which he defined as a terminal dislocation between market and economic policy uncertainty: as he wrote 4 months ago, it was some time […]
