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Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXXV–Hydrocarbons And The Maximum Power Principle: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXXV–Hydrocarbons And The Maximum Power Principle: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

(Original posting date: Apr 22, 2023)
Mexico (1988). Photo by author.

Hydrocarbons And The Maximum Power Principle: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Today’s Contemplation is a sharing of the response by a Facebook Friend, Schuyler Hupp, whose occasional commentary on posts in our mutual Facebook Group, Peak Oil, I have come to appreciate for their insightfulness and conciseness regarding humanity’s predicament. I could share a number of these going back for some time but felt this latest one was particularly good.

Question.

[Global Warming] You have a substance that when burnt releases a gas that makes it warmer, you burn as much as you can to make your car go broom broom and feed 8 billion people. Would it get warmer?

In response to the above question posed by a mutual FB Friend, Schuyler had the following to say:

Schuyler Hupp

Burning hydrocarbons on a massive scale, and for a century or more… That’s exactly what an army of engineers would propose if you actually wanted to warm the climate… Though they would warn that the long term outcome would be difficult if not impossible to predict or control, due to the complexity and the number of variables, both known and unknown… However, they would also warn that there would be a very real possibility for the climate being forced into a new steady state equilibrium that might not be compatible with human life. They would also be the first to point out that fossil hydrocarbons, i.e. ancient sunlight, are a finite mineral resource, and that their quality and the net energy return would become uneconomical after about 150 years or so, and thus it would not represent a sustainable energy paradigm, not to mention all of the damage to ecosystems that would result from the pollution, or the population growth that would result from their introduction, with humans essentially being slaves to their innate Maximum Power Principle behavioral instincts… and that population Overshoot would ensue, thus condemning the entire planet to a future of ecological collapse…

I have little to add to Schuyler’s response, except to stress that we appear to be in a predicament of ecological overshoot that has only an outcome, not a possible ‘solution’ — something almost everyone wishes to have laid out before them, seemingly to help them in their denial of reality to abolish the stress such an inevitable trajectory brings. This is usually accomplished through a kind of magical thinking that humans stand above and beyond nature, and can thus control it — usually via our technology — and then demand that the dominant, story-telling apes within our sociopolitical systems act to save us.

[NOTE: the links in the above paragraph will take you to articles by another FB Friend, Erik Michaels, who has been doing deep dives into these subjects for a number of years and posts at Problems, Predicaments, and Technology — a site I highly recommend.]

I’m pretty certain that there is no Plan B possible; in fact, I’m not even sure there was ever a Plan A…except, perhaps, to pursue our reproductive ‘success’ in adapting to our immediate environment of the moment for as long as possible (and this does not imply there is a predetermined evolutionary ‘goal’ involved aside from successful gene duplication).

The Energy Transition Story Has Become Self-Defeating

The Energy Transition Story Has Become Self-Defeating

We need another kind of transformation more than ever

A place and time for magical thinking. Photo by Dollar Gill on Unsplash

There is still a widespread belief that it is possible to transition away from fossil fuels, a myth which is contradicted by an ever growing body of evidence. Not that the previous model — based on coal, oil and gas — was even a slight bit more sustainable: we are talking about finite resources after all. However, the “energy transition” was a far more easier sell, than admitting that we have reached the end of growth, and that a long winding road back to a much simpler life is what awaits. Meanwhile, the real crisis (climate change), has proved to be a far more complex topic than what could be “tackled” by turning a few coal fired power plants off, and wishing for the magic unicorn of the Hydrogen economy to materialize… Where did it all go wrong? What kind of transition is possible then?


Let’s start by making a simple statement first: There has been no energy transition ever taking place in human history. Neither in the 19th century, when coal came into the picture, nor in the 20th with the advent of nuclear, or in the 21st, for that matter, with the widespread adoption of wind and solar. As the term implies, it would’ve required us to abandon a viable energy source in favour of another, ramping down the old one in advantage of the new. That would’ve meant leaving vast reserves of the old energy source out there, untapped. That has never happened, and never will, for a simple reason: the Maximum Power Principle.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Renewable Energy Transition Violates The Maximum Power Principle

Energy Aware

We all want solutions to the world’s many crises but do we understand the underlying problems?

Everything in nature, including human society, relies on energy for production, consumption, recycling, and sustainability. Therefore, to understand things, we must first examine how energy is turned into work and power.

Steel, concrete, plastic, and fertilizer are fundamental to modern civilization yet we have no idea how to make any of them at scale without fossil fuels. Those who think that the solution to our climate crisis is to end the use of fossil fuels do not understand this. Ending fossil fuels would cause society to collapse, and result in more short-term human death and suffering than is expected even in the worst-case scenarios for global heating.

Those who think that a solution is to substitute renewable energy for fossil fuels don’t understand this either. Even if true, we’re a long way from that. At present, wind and solar account for only two-and-half percent of global energy consumption, and all renewables—including hydroelectric and nuclear energy—account for only seven percent using the direct equivalent method.

The larger problem is that energy substitution is only a theory. It is naive and flawed because it only considers amounts of energy while ignoring rates of energy output.

Society runs on power, not energy. Energy is the potential to do work. Energy must be converted into work for anything to happen in the physical world. Work takes place when energy is transferred to an object by application of force along a displacement.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Collapse Is An Outcome, Not A Problem To Be Solved

Collapse Is An Outcome, Not A Problem To Be Solved

Technology as dinosaur. Photo by Jen Theodore on Unsplash

There is a rule in ecology called the maximum power principle formulated by Lokta in 1925. It can be summarized as follows: “The systems that survive in competition are those that develop more power inflow and use it best to meet the needs of survival.” If one wanted to describe the animating force behind the rise and fall of civilizations, they would be hard pressed to come up with a better one. Complex systems — such as our modern industrial world economy — appear to be ruled by the same ecological principles to which all other complex organisms obey. These rules are so universal, independent from size and scale from microbes to galaxies, that one would do better to call them natural laws. Join me on a wild ride from bacteria to petroleum extraction to see how these rules govern our daily life and how they could eventually lead to the decline of what we call modernity.


Imagine a clean Petri-dish chuck full of yummy Agar Agar, a medium utilized to grow fungi and bacteria on. Now place a range of microorganisms on it and see what happens: those bacteria which use up the most food energy to multiply will simply outcompete almost any other life form in the dish. Those who use energy sparingly, and live a slow but long life with relatively few offspring, will be simply outcrowded and completely overwhelmed. Now, let’s take our thought experiment to the next level: take a clean Petri-dish, but this time fill half of it with tasty bacteria food and the another half with a not-so-yummy medium with a much lower energy content. Next, add some bacteria which double their numbers every hour. What you can expect to see here is exponential growth at its best — and something unexpected.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

By Preston Howard: The Maximum Power Principle and Why It Underscores the Certainty of Human Extinction in the Near Future

By Preston Howard: The Maximum Power Principle and Why It Underscores the Certainty of Human Extinction in the Near Future

Howard T. Odum: co-originator of Maximum Power Principle

Today’s guest post by Preston Howard discusses an issue central to our overshoot predicament that is often ignored: The Maximum Power Principle (MPP). The MPP states that life optimizes for maximize power, not maximum efficiency, and implies that life does not look forward in time to consider the consequences of maximizing power today.

While preparing an initial report for Florida’s first Area of Critical State Concern1 in 1972, I had the immense good fortune to spend time with Howard T. Odum, an environmental engineering scientist who directed the Wetlands Center at the University of Florida. The area of state concern was the Big Cypress Preserve adjacent to the Florida Everglades. Dr Odum and several of his graduate students had ongoing studies in the area. In informal conversations, Dr Odum explained the Maximum Power Principle as described below. I believe it presents Humanity’s current situation better than anything I have seen about global warming, overshoot, or climate collapse. However, to my knowledge no one has mentioned it in any serious article except Gail Tverberg in her articles about resource consumption.

To understand the Maximum Power Principle2, let us imagine a square island, barren of any vegetation. As happened many times in Florida, suppose our island was created by fill where a shipping channel had been deepened. Situated close to the seaport, someone intended to build something on the new island, but permitting requirements and other administrative delays where taking “forever.” (These details provide a “context” for the discussion.)

The barren island does not remain barren for long, as plants soon begin to grow on it. The solar energy that bathes the island provides abundant energy for the early pioneer plants…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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