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A historic global bond-market crash threatens liquidation of the world’s most crowded trades, says BofA

A historic global bond-market crash threatens liquidation of the world’s most crowded trades, says BofA

‘If the bond market does not function, then no other market functions, really,’ say Ben Emons of Medley Global Advisors 

A newspaper headline is shown after the Treaty of Versailles was signed in 1919. Global bonds are in one of their worst bear markets since the treaty went into effect in 1920, establishing the terms for peace at the end of World War I.

SOURCE: UNIVERSITY OF DENVER

Global government-bond markets are stuck in what BofA Securities analysts are calling one of the greatest bear markets ever and this is in turn threatening the ease with which investors will be able to exit from the world’s most-crowded trades, if needed.

Those trades include positions in the dollar, U.S. technology companies and private equity, said BofA strategists Michael Hartnett, Elyas Galou, and Myung-Jee Jung. Bonds are generally regarded as one of the most liquid asset classes available to investors. If liquidity dries up in that market, it’s bad news for just about every other form of investment, other analysts said.

Financial markets have yet to price in the worst-case outcomes for inflation, interest rates, and the economy around the world, despite tumbling global equities along with a selloff of bonds in the U.S. and the U.K. On Friday, the Dow industrials DJIA, -1.62% sank almost 500 points and flirted with a fall into bear-market territory, while the S&P 500 index SPX, -1.72% stopped short of ending the New York session below its June closing low.

U.S. bond yields are at or near multiyear highs. Meanwhile, government-bond yields in the U.K., Germany, and France have risen at the fastest clip since the 1990s, according to BofA Securities.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz. ‘We are going to go into a really fast recession.’

‘The economy is going to collapse,’ says Wall Street veteran Novogratz. ‘We are going to go into a really fast recession.’

Veteran investor and bitcoin bull Michael Novogratz’s economic outlook is not rosy

Michael Novogratz, founder and chief executive officer of Galaxy Digital Capital Management LP, spoke with MarketWatch on Wednesday ahead of a historically aggressive Fed rate hike.

Veteran investor and bitcoin bull Michael Novogratz doesn’t have a rosy outlook on the economy, which he described as headed for a substantial downturn, with the likelihood of a “fast recession” on the horizon.

“The economy is going to collapse,” Novogratz told MarketWatch. “We are going to go into a really fast recession, and you can see that in lots of ways,” he said, in a Wednesday interview before the Federal Reserve decided to undertake its biggest interest-rate hike in nearly three decades.

“Housing is starting to roll over,” he said. “Inventories have exploded.”

“There are layoffs in multiple industries, and the Fed is stuck,” he said, with a position of having to “hike [interest rates] until inflation rolls over.”

Central-bank policy makers agreed to deliver an unusual 0.75-percentage-point rate increase, concluding a closely watched two-day policy meeting with a move that would push the Fed’s benchmark federal-funds rate rising to a range between 1.5% and 1.75% as it steps up the effort to quell an inflation rate that is hovering around a 40-year high.

It was the largest increase in the central bank’s policy rate since November 1994.

Before the Fed announced its decision, Novogratz speculated — accurately, it turned out — that the central bank would lift interest rates by 75 basis points and that the market would rally on that news. He also predicted that stocks will sell off in the coming days.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Crude oil prices will go the way of ‘whale oil’ as demand has peaked, says ARK’s Cathie Wood 

Crude oil prices will go the way of ‘whale oil’ as demand has peaked, says ARK’s Cathie Wood

Rising crude oil prices are a factor of supply rather than demand, she says

An old building of a British shipping base, which was consumed by a mudslide sparked by a volcano, crumbles at Whalers Bay in Deception Island, in the western Antarctica peninsula on March 06, 2016. In 1912 the Hektor Whaling Company was issued with a license to establish a shore-based whaling station. Approximately 150 people worked at the station during the austral summer, producing over 140,000 barrels of whale oil.

AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Much like the whale oil trade at its peak in the mid 1800s, crude oil prices have probably topped.

That’s according to Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Investment Management, who spoke of a coming peak in crude oil prices due to the arrival of electric vehicles (EV), in a series of tweets late Thursday.

Citing U.S. Energy Information Administration data, the investment manager said global oil demand peaked at 101 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2019, dropped to 92 mbd during the coronavirus in 2020, and has since rebounded to 97 mbd in 2021. “Based on our forecast for EV sales, @ARKInvest believes that oil demand has peaked,” Wood said.

ARK has predicted that EV sales will rise roughly 20-fold from around 2.2 million in 2020 to 40 million units in 2025, and industry heavyweight Tesla TSLA, 1.54% is the biggest holding in the flagship ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund ARKK, 1.04%. She also pointed to pension funds who are demanding oil companies reduce capital spending while Wall Street banks are denying them money for fracking, as OPEC is “holding the line on supply”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Marketwatch: Commentary Censorship

Marketwatch: Commentary Censorship

Yesterday (February 1, 2021), MarketWatch published an article on why the short squeeze on silver being discussed by some on WallStreetBets/Reddit would be short-lived. Having read a number of articles on the issue it was not difficult to identify some misleading/faulty statements in the article. I sent a comment through to point out these inconsistencies in the article only to receive a message back that my comment “has been rejected as it contains content that is in breach of our community guidelines.

Here is the comment:

__________________

Some misleading and missing ‘facts’ in this story.

First, the gold-to-silver price ratio is not ‘historically’ 60-1. That is only a relatively recent ratio. Historically, the ratio is about 15:1. (https://www.mining.com/web/alert-gold-silver-ratio-spikes-highest-level-27-years/)

Second, the argument that the WallStreetBets/Reddit crowd is justifying its position based on the industrial use of silver in electronics/technology is only partially accurate. Several others justifications have been forwarded: the ratio of silver mined to gold mined is even lower than the price ratio, about 8 ounces of silver to every 1 ounce of gold (https://www.jmbullion.com/investing-guide/james/silver-supply/); and, most importantly, there are 100s of paper ounces of silver to every actual physical ounce in existence, so taking physical deliver, as many are suggesting, will expose the fraud that is the precious metals market (https://www.goldbroker.com/news/paper-silver-market-250-times-size-physical-silver-market-526#:~:text=This%20would%20mean%20that%2C%20for,circulating%20in%20several%20financial%20products.)

And finally, many simply want to expose the fraud and manipulation by the Big Banks that has been going on for ages. (https://www.reuters.com/article/jp-morgan-spoofing-penalty/jpmorgan-to-pay-920-million-for-manipulating-precious-metals-treasury-market-idINKBN26K325)

__________________

The community guidelines are fairly extensive, but I can find no where in my comment where I was in breach of them, except maybe “excessive links to external websites”; but is 4 excessive?

Blatant censorship? It seems so to me.

The financialization of the end of the world

The financialization of the end of the world

For those who are fans of cartoons from The New Yorker magazine and consistent readers of this blog, you might be able to guess my two favorite cartoons. In the first one, a man in a coat and tie stands at a podium and tells his unseen audience the following: “And so, while the end-of-the-world scenario will be rife with unimaginable horrors, we believe that the pre-end period will be filled with unprecedented opportunities for profit.”

In the second, a man in a tattered suit sits cross-legged near a campfire with three children listening to him intently as he says this: “Yes, the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders.”

Now, in the you-can’t-make-this-stuff-up category, financial writer Paul Farrell used the caption from the first cartoon in a 2015 piece for MarketWatch entitled: “Your No. 1 end-of-the-world investing strategy.” The subheading is: “How to pick stocks for the near term when long-term trends say collapse is near.” The subhead actually seems like it might be another caption from a New Yorker cartoon (or possibly one from The Onion). Why exactly would you invest in stocks—as opposed to seeds of food crops and sturdy garden implements—”when long-term trends say collapse is near”? But I’ll put that down to bad headline writing.

In Farrell’s defense, he frequently used his column in MarketWatch to warn his readers of the coming collapse of modern civilization if we don’t change our ways. He was obliged to give investment advice, of course, because that’s what the column was for.

Few other investment gurus are as intellectually honest as Farrell. Among prominent investment managers, only Jeremy Grantham comes close to understanding the scope of the challenges we face. Grantham wrote a piece in 2013 called “The Race of Our Lives” that outlines the myriad challenges humans face. He starts with a discussion of the fall of civilizations. (He updated his views in 2018.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

‘We’re going to have more deaths’: Influenza kills more people than the coronavirus so everyone is overreacting, right? Wrong — and here’s why

‘We’re going to have more deaths’: Influenza kills more people than the coronavirus so everyone is overreacting, right? Wrong — and here’s why

President Trump tweeted Monday that thousands die of the flu every year, and suggested that life should go on as usual — not so fast, experts say

Some cite influenza as a reason not to be worried about COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, but health professionals say that comparison misses some very important points.MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto

Coronavirus. It’s just like the flu, isn’t it? 

Hundreds of thousands of people die of the flu every year, and people need to calm down, some say. Everyone should wash their hands for 20 seconds,  elbow bump, stop buying face masks because they don’t protect against the virus, note that airplane air is filtered 20 to 30 times an hour, avoid cruise ships, and just relax — right?

That appears to be the accumulated advice of exasperated Americans on Twitter and Facebook FB, -6.40% in recent days who despair at the long lines at Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods AMZN, -5.28% (where people apparently have been stocking up on oat milk) and the panic buying and empty shelves at Costco COST, -3.00%. “Toilet paper is golden in an apocalypse,” one customer told MYNorthwest.com.

‘This is additive, not in place of. Yes, the flu kills thousands of people every year, but we’re going to have more deaths.’— Amesh Adalja, Infectious Diseases Society of America

Studies, however, suggest the differences between the flu and coronavirus are more nuanced than some people suggest. In fact, health professionals point out important distinctions between the COVID-19 illness and other viral sicknesses like the flu. For a start, there is no vaccine for COVID-19 and it could take many months or years to get one to market. What’s worse, doctors fear the virus will mutate.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Opinion: The Federal Reserve is stuck in quantitative-easing hell

Opinion: The Federal Reserve is stuck in quantitative-easing hell

The central bank’s short-term buying of securities could morph into long-term easing

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

Imagine doing the same thing over and over again, with little progress and no relief. Sounds like most people’s vision of hell — or the Federal Reserve’s current predicament. 

Since September, the central bank, through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has been purchasing securities hand over fist to alleviate short-term pressures in the overnight money markets. It has used repurchase (“repo”) and reverse repurchase (“reverse repo”) agreements to provide liquidity and keep overnight borrowing rates from spiking. 

But these complex money market operations already have caused the Fed to buy a net $400 billion worth of securities, after Chairman Jerome Powell shrank the Fed’s balance sheet by $700 billion. That “normalization,” which also included raising the federal funds rate through late 2018, is now effectively dead and the Fed’s balance sheet is growing again.

Powell and the Fed have repeatedly denied this is a new phase of “quantitative easing (QE),” three rounds of which added $3.6 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet in the years after the financial crisis. And indeed, in the earlier rounds of QE, the central bank bought Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities of various maturities. The current buying has been focused on Treasuries with maturities of 12 months or less. 

On the way: QE4

But that may not continue, says Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at Quill Intelligence, a Dallas-based boutique research firm. Booth, who worked on both Wall Street and in the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, has been a critic of Fed policies since the central bank pushed fed funds down to near zero and launched its three rounds of QE after the financial crisis. (She also was one of the few people to connect the dots between the housing bust and Wall Street before the crisis hit.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

America’s Debt Burden Will Fuel The Next Crisis

America’s Debt Burden Will Fuel The Next Crisis

Just recently, Rex Nutting penned an opinion piece for MarketWatch entitled “Consumer Debt Is Not A Ticking Time Bomb.” His primary point is that low per-capita debt ratios and debt-to-dpi ratios show the consumer is quite healthy and won’t be the primary subject of the next crisis. To wit:

“However, most Americans are better off now than they were 10-years ago, or even a few years ago. The finances of American households are strong. 

But, that’s not what a lot of people think. More than a decade after a massive credit orgy by households brought down the U.S. and global economies, lots of people are convinced that households are still borrowing so much money that it will inevitably crash the economy.

Those critics see a consumer debt bomb growing again. But they are wrong.”

I do agree with Rex on his point that the U.S. consumer won’t be the sole cause of the next crisis. It will be a combination of household and corporate debt combined with underfunded pensions, which will collide in the next crisis.

However, there is a household debt problem which is hidden by the way governmental statistics are calculated.

Indebted To The American Dream

The idea of “maintaining a certain standard of living” has become a foundation in our society today.Americans, in general, have come to believe they are “entitled” to a certain type of house, car, and general lifestyle which includes NOT just the basic necessities of living such as food, running water, and electricity, but also the latest mobile phone, computer, and high-speed internet connection. (Really, what would be the point of living if you didn’t have access to Facebook every two minutes?)

But, like most economic data, you have to dig behind the numbers to reveal the true story.

So let’s do that, shall we?

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Government Shutdown Reveals Nasty Truth About Americans’ Savings

government shutdown reveals americans have no savings

Government Shutdown Reveals Nasty Truth About Americans’ Savings

The temporarily-ended government shutdown didn’t have had a large effect on the U.S. economy, but it may have revealed something disturbing about the savings of 80% of Americans.

They aren’t prepared if the economy get worse.

MarketWatch published some recent findings in an op-ed (emphasis ours):

Why do a few weeks without pay turn into a crisis for many families? Simple: Nearly 80% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. That’s a problem when you have little to no savings. In fact, it’s akin to playing financial Russian roulette.

And the problem is terrifyingly pervasive. According to a recent GoBankingRates survey, only 21% of Americans have more than $10,000 in savings, with nearly 60% having less than $1,000 in savings.

The findings come from a recent GoBankingRates survey, which contained the following chart reflecting MarketWatch’s findings:

american savings 2014 - 2018

With interest rates on the rise and the economy at levels of uncertainty not seen since 2008, it’s crucial for Americans to buffer their income with some sort of hedge.

Without reliable “go-to” savings and a plan, there could be tough times ahead if the market continues diving into recession.

But the nasty truth appears to be most Americans don’t have enough savings, if any at all, to get them through the tough times.

Right now, government-reported unemployment is the lowest it’s been since 2000. But as you can see from the chart below, a recession tends to follow the “lowest” unemployment rates:

civilian unemployment rate

It’s not for sure that this is a signal of an imminent recession, but it sure seems like enough circumstantial evidence to consider looking into your savings options. That, and the fact that the shutdown has only been “ended” until February 15. After that, we may see “Part II.”

And the shutdown isn’t only affecting individuals. It even drew the attention of top CEOs.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The ‘Godfather’ Of Market Analysis: ‘Damage Done To The Stock Market Is Much Worse’

The ‘Godfather’ Of Market Analysis: ‘Damage Done To The Stock Market Is Much Worse’

The so-called “Godfather” of market chart analysis said that the damage already done to the stock market is much worse than most people are talking about. Ralph Acampora, a prominent market technician, says the stock market is in bad shape and it’s worse than many Wall Street investors appreciate.

From a technical perspective, the damage that has been done technically to the stock market is much, much worse than people are talking about,he told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Tuesday. Acampora also said that the technical damage that has resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index erasing all of their gains for 2018, and the Nasdaq Composite Index falling into correction territory (which is usually characterized as a decline of at least 10% from a recent peak) will take months to repair.

“I’ve been a bull for a long, long time and like everyone, I was waiting for a correction but this is something different,” said Acampora. “All the leadership is getting crushed,” he said. He added that he feels that the entire market will go into bear territory soon.

“Honestly, I don’t see the low being put in yet and I think we’re going to go into a bear market,” he said according to MarketWatch. He speculates that the market may not be healed until around the first quarter of 2019. Acampora said that the current dynamic in the market was eerily similar to the stock-market crash of 1987 when the Dow plunged a historic 22.6% in a single day on October 19 of that year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Opinion: Powell has lost his North Star, and the Fed is flying blind

The Fed risks raising interest rates too much as the compass spins wildly

STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images
Stars appear to rotate around Polaris, the North Star, in this time exposure of the Kitt Peak National Observatory near Tucson, Ariz.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is in an unenviable position. Folks expect him to fine-tune interest rates to keep the economy going and inflation tame but he can’t make things much better — only worse.

Growth is nearly 3% and unemployment is at its lowest level since 1969. What inflation we have above the Fed target of 2% is driven largely by oil prices and those by forces beyond the influence of U.S. economic conditions — OPEC politics, U.S. sanctions on Iran, and dystopian political forces in Venezuela and a few other garden spots.

When the current turbulence in oil markets recedes, we are likely in for a period of headline inflation below 2%, just as those forces are now driving prices higher now.

Overall, long-term inflation has settled in at the Fed target of about 2%. The Fed should not obsess about it but keep a watchful eye.

Amid all this, Powell’s inflation compass has gone missing. The Phillips curve, as he puts it, may not be dead but just resting. To my thinking, it’s in a coma if it was ever alive at all.

That contraption is a shorthand equation sitting atop a pyramid of more fundamental behavioral relationships. Those include the supply and demand for domestic workers and in turn, an historically large contingent labor force of healthy prime-age adults sitting on the sidelines, the shifting skill requirements of a workplace transformed by artificial intelligence and robotics, import prices influenced by weak growth in Europe and China, and immigration.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why the American Dream of owning a big home is way overrated, in one chart

Courtesy of Rogers & Cowan
Do you NEED this much space?

From 1978 through 2015, the median size of the single-family home increased every year until it peaked at 2,467 square feet, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Then, in 2016, that number began to shrink, albeit ever so slightly.

So, are we finally coming to our senses about McMansions?

Of course, owning a big house has long been a key component of the American Dream — you know you’ve arrived when you have columns, an indoor pool and a theater room — but, in reality, it’s all usually a huge waste of space, according to a study cited by Steve Adcock on the Get Rich Slowly blog.

A research team affiliated with UCLA studied American families and where they spend most of their time while inside their homes. The results were fascinating, but really not all that surprising. Here’s one representative example:

As you can see, most square footage is wasted as people tend to gather around the kitchen and the television, while avoiding the dining room and porch.

“The findings were not pretty. In fact, they helped prove how little we use our big homes for things other than clutter,” Adcock said. “Most families don’t use large areas of their homes — which means they’ve essentially wasted money on space they don’t need.”

And Adcock knows a thing or two about utilizing space.

Like the family in the illustration above, he used to spend all of his time hanging out in the kitchen and family room in his 1,600-square-foot home. Now, after managing to retire from his full-time gig at the age of 35, he lives his version of the American Dream in an Airstream trailer with his wife.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Opinion: No, hurricanes are not good for the economy

Yes, GDP may get a temporary boost from rebuilding, but there’s nothing positive about destruction

REUTERS/Adrees Latif
Think of the increased production of motor vehicles to replace all those flooded trucks!

Once the immediate danger of a natural disaster subsides, and the loss of life, property damage, cost of rebuilding, and degree of insurance coverage can be assessed, attention generally turns to the economic effect. How will Hurricane Harvey affect the nation’s gross domestic product?

You will no doubt hear assertions that the rebuilding effort will provide a boost to contractors, manufacturers and GDP in general. But before these claims turn into predictable nonsense about all the good that comes from natural disasters, I thought it might be useful to provide some context for these sorts of events.

Over the years, I’ve observed a tendency among economists and traders to view such events through a demand-side prism. They see lost income translating into reduced spending on goods and services, which might even warrant some largesse from the central bank.

Of course, that is precisely the wrong medicine. Supply shocks reduce output and raise prices. The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate medicine affects demand. Lower interest rates will increase the demand for gasoline, among other goods and services, but they have no effect on supply. An easing of monetary policy under such circumstances would increase demand for already curtailed supply, raising prices even more.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The American dystopia didn’t begin with Trump

Media narrative includes myths fostered by Obama

Hulu/courtesy Everett Collection
The dystopian classic, “The Handmaid’s Tale,” is streaming on Hulu, sparking lots of false comparisons between the misogynistic dictatorship in the miniseries and the presidency of Donald Trump.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Dystopia is here. It’s not just the “imagined place” of the dictionary definition or a future state of dystopian novels. It is very real and right now, at least for those of us trying to follow national politics.

And it’s not just Donald Trump. It’s Barack Obama, it’s Ted Cruz, it’s the New York Times, it’s Breitbart News. It is an alternate universe detached from the world we live in but intruding into it in painful and dangerous ways.

It is a media narrative of political conspirators colluding with a dictatorial archenemy, of an intemperate and delusional leader overturning the institutions of democracy, of a “deep-state” resistance to constitutional authority.

It is a dystopia of rampant hypocrisy, where obstructing legislation, supporting a law-enforcement official who strays beyond the limits of his authority, or boycotting a president’s appointments is evil and undemocratic until it’s your party that wants to do it.

Two dystopian classics have shot back to the top of best-seller lists because the media suggest the authoritarian surveillance societies they portray have arrived. The 1948 novel “1984” and the 1985 novel “The Handmaid’s Tale” are touted as descriptions of where we are headed under Trump.

While the author of “Handmaid,” Margaret Atwood, and the cast of the Hulu miniseries based on it see a Trump administration as the realization of the misogyny depicted in the novel, it’s obvious the U.S. is not about to become a Puritanical theocracy like that in the book.

Critics on both the left and the right dispute the media meme that “Handmaid” is a depiction of the Trump era.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

3 Things: Value Of Cash, 3rd Mandate, Yellen Channels Bernanke

3 Things: Value Of Cash, 3rd Mandate, Yellen Channels Bernanke

 


El-Erian – The Value Of Cash

My friend, Anora Mahmudova, recently wrote for MarketWatch about Mohamed El-Erian’s discussion on the importance of “cash” for investors.

“At a breakfast meeting with reporters on Monday, the former Pacific Investment Management Company chief executive said central bank asset purchases have successfully decoupled asset prices from fundamentals and distorted traditional correlations.

‘Investors cannot rely on correlations as a risk mitigator, making cash a very valuable thing to have.

It can give your portfolio resilience during stressful times, optionality—whether you use it for tactical or strategic purposes and flexibility to deploy it when necessary.’ 

Central banks are finding it harder and harder to repress volatility in financial markets, and any jolts, such as currency devaluation in China or political events, such as Brexit, result in wild swings in the markets.’

El-Erian also said years of unconventional monetary policy, including asset purchases, and a lack of fiscal stimulus are making developed economies less stable.”

Whenever El-Erian makes comments about the value of holding cash, there is generally a good bit of media lash-back about relating to the impacts of inflation and the inability to successfully navigate market cycles.

El-Erian’s comments are a valuation call, driven to excess by monetary interventions, on the financial markets suggesting that having capital invested will likely yield substantially lower or negative returns in the future. This is an extremely important concept in understanding the “real value of cash.”

The chart below shows the inflation-adjusted return of $100 invested in the S&P 500 (using data provided by Dr. Robert Shiller). The chart also shows Dr. Shiller’s CAPE ratio. However, I have capped the CAPE ratio at 23x earnings which has historically been the peak of secular bull markets in the past. Lastly, I calculated a simple cash/stock switching model which buys stocks at a CAPE ratio of 6x or less and moves to cash at a ratio of 23x.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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