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Modern Grand Solar Minimum will lead to terrestrial cooling

Modern Grand Solar Minimum will lead to terrestrial cooling

In this editorial I will demonstrate with newly discovered solar activity proxy-magnetic field that the Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature.

Sun is the main source of energy for all planets of the solar system. This energy is delivered to Earth in a form of solar radiation in different wavelengths, called total solar irradiance. Variations of solar irradiance lead to heating of upper planetary atmosphere and complex processes of solar energy transport toward a planetary surface.

The signs of solar activity are seen in cyclic 11-year variations of a number of sunspots on the solar surface using averaged monthly sunspot numbers as a proxy of solar activity for the past 150 years. Solar cycles were described by the action of solar dynamo mechanism in the solar interior generating magnetic ropes at the bottom of solar convective zone.

These magnetic ropes travel through the solar interior appearing on the solar surface, or photosphere, as sunspots indicating the footpoints where these magnetic ropes are embedded into the photosphere.

Magnetic field of sunspots forms toroidal field while solar background magnetic field forms poloidal field. Solar dynamo cyclically converts poloidal field into toroidal one reaching its maximum at a solar cycle maximum and then the toroidal field back to the poloidal one toward a solar minimum. It is evident that for the same leading polarity of the magnetic field in sunspots in the same hemisphere the solar cycle length should be extended to 22 years.

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Cosmic Rays, Magnetic Fields and Climate Change

Cosmic Rays, Magnetic Fields and Climate Change

In my recent post on The Cosmogenic Isotope Record and the Role of The Sun in Shaping Earth’s Climatean interesting discussion developed in comments where there was a fair amount of disagreement among my sceptical colleagues. A few days later, retired Apollo astronaut Phil Chapman sent me this article which lays some of the doubts to rest. Phil never got to fly in space but was mission Scientist on Apollo 14. It is not every day I get the opportunity to publish an article from such a pre-eminent scientist.

1. Sunspots and GCRs

There is absolutely no doubt that solar activity (via the solar wind) directly affects the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) reaching the Earth. The lower curve in Figure 1 shows the monthly average sunspot count since 1958, from the database (SILSO) maintained by the Royal Observatory of Belgium and the upper chart gives the monthly average GCR flux (as percentage deviations from the average for the period), as measured by the neutron monitor in Moscow.

Note that the scale for GCRs is inverted, increasing downward, to facilitate comparison with the sunspot record; that the major time division is 11 years, to illustrate the well- known approximate periodicity of the sunspot cycle; and that the GCR minimum usually lags the sunspot maximum by a year or two. The linear trend lines in the figure show the decline in the average number of sunspots since the early 1990s and the corresponding increase in GCRs, as we began a new Grand Solar Minimum (already named the Eddy Minimum by the solar physics community).

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